Plans have been filed for DVC expansion at Caribbean Beach Resort

[sachilles]

I am confused at your point? The poster asked why those resorts are popular. I gave him reasons why they are, nothing with costs and stockholders.

He's agreeing with it......saying CBR isn't going to be a match for that complex, and nothing in the near future will be either.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

I am confused at your point? The poster asked why those resorts are popular. I gave him reasons why they are, nothing with costs and stockholders.

Right...I misfired there...I was making the correlation between the current canal system and the proposed one...my bad.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

The numbers are relative and neither of us really know what the tipping point is. Even if I believe for a second that that the price tag to connect CBR to to Epcot or DHS starts at $100M (we all know the real cost would be a fraction of that) the ROI dwarfs that number in only a few years. The question isn't can they afford to connect CBR, it's can they afford to NOT connect them. Our real disagreement is I'm envisioning CBR as it might be in the future and how a CBR DVC can fit into the current model. It doesn't seem you can get past they way CBR currently is (or was in the past) and the potential the property has increase revenues with very little effort or cost other than what is already attributed to DVC going on the property.

There's a big difference between increased revenues and increased profits. They really care about the latter.

The proposed dvc with connector increases overhead which bleeds profit. They would generate the upfront revenue...but that would be sucked back into the longterm
Operational cost of the gates/waterways...so that's an issue.

The revenue isn't made at the resort giftshop...so a dvc wouldn't bolster Caribbean...

So the main angle would be increased gate traffic to Epcot specifically...

Epcot is lagging because they haven't added to it and the appeal needs repositioned...it's not lack of a waterway to Caribbean or pop. Very few people "avoid it" due to logistics...so that can't be calculated in the planning.

I think the premise of a new dvc with access/views to those two parks makes more sense over next to the swan...or a phase 2 to beach/yacht club.

Unless it's a different model for dvc...thenAll bets are off

 

[TheMaxRebo]

Location to two parks, good dining options, atmosphere. You have 5 resorts if you include the swan and dolphin within walking distance. All have good dining options, all have good pools, all have boat and walking distance to two parks. One resort on its own isn't going to do as well as something like BWI/YC/BC.

Yeah, another reason I think if it is just this one resort it will either be: a) make it as nice as possible, have the tower with a great view (of the fireworks and the property as a whole - can see all 4 parks), keep the pricepoint flatish to what is being charged now, maybe a bit fewer points per night and hope for the best as far as selling

or

II) this is just the first of multiple DVCs in that area that will all be interconnected some way like the boardwalk area - maybe not using boats but perhaps building some sort of people mover. Maybe a new resort has a futuristic theme so it fits in better - heck, make it star wars themed with being so close to DHS. I mean, people would probably pay a lot to "own" a Star Wars property in WDW

 

[lockedoutlogic]

Has anyone considered that this tower would violate the "can be scene from
Inside the park" doctrine?

That has been violated all
Of twice: the original design of contemporary...and Swan and dolphin which were outside built...

Think Caribbean shatters that glass
Ceiling next?

 

[Sweettears]

So, I'm rehashing here, but I think we all are at this point.

Personally, I don't think the idea of a 3rd Epcot entrance has any credibility at all. Even if you put aside the logistical issues (backstage areas, or whatever), it simply makes no sense to incur the long-term operational costs of a dedicated entrance, plus the non-negligible initial construction costs for that entrance, all for the sake of a one-shot profit on sales. This is a company with a market cap over $170 billion and annual revenue around $50 billion. They're not going to casually pass on an opportunity to bring in a few hundred million, but there are limits to the lengths they will go to make it happen.

So in terms of park access, we're left with the bridge/canal to the existing gate, or maybe dedicated buses. I think both of these are entirely possible. But are they enough? Like I asked upthread, does anyone over the age of 8 actually consider a 20 minute boat ride to be "good" park access? And I can't see anyone getting excited about buses, dedicated or otherwise.

I have to agree with @lockedoutlogic on the location thing. It's great if you're a bird, but otherwise the logistics really aren't promising.

Doesn't mean they won't build a standalone DVC there. And no doubt they'll even sell it, because: "I really want to be part of DVC ! Welcome Home!", "it was what they were selling when I wanted to buy", "I can always trade into another resort", "resale is too complicated" (or "I didn't know resale was a thing"), and "I already spend $5000/year on Disney accommodations, so my $50,000 DVC contract will pay for itself in just 10 years (plus an extra 5 years to pay off the loan interest, and then there's the dues - but those things don't really amount to much, right?)".

The worst thing is that I think a "regular" DVC with sub-par park access could actually be even worse for system balance than the moderate concept I floated earlier. If you assume that both pricing and nightly point costs are similar or even higher than other recent DVC construction (because, if this is a deluxe DVC, you can bet they're not going down) - someone who buys enough points under that structure to stay for a week is going to expect to be able to trade into GF or Poly. And they'll have enough points to do it. At least in a moderate model, buyers would know (or quickly learn) that their 50 or 100 pt contracts are not going far at the deluxe resorts. Plus you have the reverse draw of the point stretchers who might be willing to overlook the reduced amenities of a moderate if the price is right.

I'm still not convinced that a non-DVC project is out of the question. I agree that past chatter leads in that direction but I haven't seen or heard anything that convinces me that it is a certainty.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

Yeah, another reason I think if it is just this one resort it will either be: a) make it as nice as possible, have the tower with a great view (of the fireworks and the property as a whole - can see all 4 parks), keep the pricepoint flatish to what is being charged now, maybe a bit fewer points per night and hope for the best as far as selling

or

II) this is just the first of multiple DVCs in that area that will all be interconnected some way like the boardwalk area - maybe not using boats but perhaps building some sort of people mover. Maybe a new resort has a futuristic theme so it fits in better - heck, make it star wars themed with being so close to DHS. I mean, people would probably pay a lot to "own" a Star Wars property in WDW

You're a little to ambitious with Bob's stock options, aren't you?

...he took a paycut last year

 

[Sweettears]

You're a little to ambitious with Bob's stock options, aren't you?

...he took a paycut last year

I was thinking of sending him a care package.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

I was thinking of sending him a care package.

...everybody loves mini muffins...and Rice Krispie treats.

 

[Sweettears]

...everybody loves mini muffins...and Rice Krispie treats.

Good suggestion. I'll round up some of the stale ones everyone refers to when I'm down there in March.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

Good suggestion. I'll round up some of the stale ones everyone refers to when I'm down there in March.

 

[DisFanDad]

There's a big difference between increased revenues and increased profits. They really care about the latter.

The proposed dvc with connector increases overhead which bleeds profit. They would generate the upfront revenue...but that would be sucked back into the longterm
Operational cost of the gates/waterways...so that's an issue.

The revenue isn't made at the resort giftshop...so a dvc wouldn't bolster Caribbean...

So the main angle would be increased gate traffic to Epcot specifically...

Epcot is lagging because they haven't added to it and the appeal needs repositioned...it's not lack of a waterway to Caribbean or pop. Very few people "avoid it" due to logistics...so that can't be calculated in the planning.

I think the premise of a new dvc with access/views to those two parks makes more sense over next to the swan...or a phase 2 to beach/yacht club.

Unless it's a different model for dvc...thenAll bets are off

You guys have actually done a good job to dissuade me from thinking this will be connected to EPCOT or DHS. But I think you are missing the larger picture regarding overhead / cost of the connection.

IF, and as I said you have convinced me its an unlikely if, they would probably be able to charge more in dues AND be able to increase the prices at CBR. I know you know the resort well, but if they could build in an extra, 10, 15, 20 a night on each of the rooms. Again, the people who rave about POR/POFQ's boat access to Downtown Disney are proof of this. Having stayed multiple times, the bus down is almost always much faster, esp from POR. And yet, watching the boards, facebook, travel sites, people rant and rave about how awesome having boat access to DTD is. Personally, I don't get it. If I want to go for a boat ride, cool, but as access to DTD, not even a park, I don't see it as an advantage, yet thousands of people seem to, and its one of the things people talk about as being worth the price difference between CBR and POR/FQ.

 

[DisFanDad]

Has a gone considered that this tower would violate the "can be scene from
Inside the park" doctrine?

That has been violated all
Of twice: the original design of contempary...and Swan and dolphin which were outside built...

Think Caribbean shatters that glass
Ceiling next?

They had the test balloons going not too long ago right ? Clearly something they were looking into.

 

[DisFanDad]

Well...you obviously don't work in construction, Pete...

When they build a project, say for $500 mil...do you think it's $100 in site prep and $400 on buildings, theming, and art?

...more like the opposite. Site work doesn't even flinch/get started until we're talking 9 figures...realistically.

Right, but if the canal, connection, etc, changed the selling price of points from 140 to 160, or 170 ... you are talking a difference of $80 to $120 million in sale cost alone, plus as I just noted other price increases potentially.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

You guys have actually done a good job to dissuade me from thinking this will be connected to EPCOT or DHS. But I think you are missing the larger picture regarding overhead / cost of the connection.

IF, and as I said you have convinced me its an unlikely if, they would probably be able to charge more in dues AND be able to increase the prices at CBR. I know you know the resort well, but if they could build in an extra, 10, 15, 20 a night on each of the rooms. Again, the people who rave about POR/POFQ's boat access to Downtown Disney are proof of this. Having stayed multiple times, the bus down is almost always much faster, esp from POR. And yet, watching the boards, facebook, travel sites, people rant and rave about how awesome having boat access to DTD is. Personally, I don't get it. If I want to go for a boat ride, cool, but as access to DTD, not even a park, I don't see it as an advantage, yet thousands of people seem to, and its one of the things people talk about as being worth the price difference between CBR and POR/FQ.

The profits are not generated at the resorts...those are driven at the giftshops...

Disney hotels are not a great "profit generator" due to their high cost model...they are more a part of overhead.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

They had the test balloons going not too long ago right ? Clearly something they were looking into.

I'm not saying it's not on the radar...just something to consider.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

Right, but if the canal, connection, etc, changed the selling price of points from 140 to 160, or 170 ... you are talking a difference of $80 to $120 million in sale cost alone, plus as I just noted other price increases potentially.

Caribeban ain't worth anywhere close to $120...not even close.

I think if they want to sell it at $150+...you'll have to go with the Low point chart model.

 

[Sweettears]

You guys have actually done a good job to dissuade me from thinking this will be connected to EPCOT or DHS. But I think you are missing the larger picture regarding overhead / cost of the connection.

IF, and as I said you have convinced me its an unlikely if, they would probably be able to charge more in dues AND be able to increase the prices at CBR. I know you know the resort well, but if they could build in an extra, 10, 15, 20 a night on each of the rooms. Again, the people who rave about POR/POFQ's boat access to Downtown Disney are proof of this. Having stayed multiple times, the bus down is almost always much faster, esp from POR. And yet, watching the boards, facebook, travel sites, people rant and rave about how awesome having boat access to DTD is. Personally, I don't get it. If I want to go for a boat ride, cool, but as access to DTD, not even a park, I don't see it as an advantage, yet thousands of people seem to, and its one of the things people talk about as being worth the price difference between CBR and POR/FQ.

The boat access from POR/FQ is a nice add on but it's not a game changer in my decision process. To be honest most of my visits don't include DD/DS. Plus it eats up quite a bit of time. To me it's a relaxing boat ride if I have the time.

 

[DisFanDad]

Caribeban ain't worth anywhere close to $120...not even close.

I think if they want to sell it at $150+...you'll have to go with the Low point chart model.

While I totally understand where you are coming from, either of those options will break the model too. I don't see them doing it. And, well, it will depend what they put into the resort. I can't see them selling for below $160.

The boat access from POR/FQ is a nice add on but it's not a game changer in my decision process. To be honest most of my visits don't include DD/DS. Plus it eats up quite a bit of time. To me it's a relaxing boat ride if I have the time.

Totally agree, but I am sure you have seen the people that rave about it, and will actually use it in justifying the, substantial, increase price over CBR to stay at POR or POFQ. To me the best thing at DTD is Earl of Sandwich, and when I want a sandwich I take the bus, because its faster

 

[lockedoutlogic]

The boat access from POR/FQ is a nice add on but it's not a game changer in my decision process. To be honest most of my visits don't include DD/DS. Plus it eats up quite a bit of time. To me it's a relaxing boat ride if I have the time.

Right...and the whole sassagola thing at port is more of a pleasure cruise...

Anything from Caribbean would be about speed to the park...not "leisure".