Plans have been filed for DVC expansion at Caribbean Beach Resort

[Mr. Drauer]

So can you interpret this plan? is there anything that indicates a new waterway is in the works as opposed to just relocating storm water drainage?

nothing on the plan that indicates any work like that. The plan shows one new building (black heavy lines) over some of the blue-roofed buildings and a new pond taking out a cluster of the orange roofed buildings. The road along side (Chelonia Parkway) is also being moved slightly east. All of the other info relates to connections between the stormwater ponds.

 

[TheMaxRebo]

But if we follow this thinking, what about Pop? There's a brige that connects PoP and AoA. Couldn't PoP come on over and catch the boat to Epcot/DHS? If we allow direct access from AOA and PoP then do we lose them as value resorts? Do they reclassify them as moderates? Deluxe? I think linking AOA creates another issue.

Well, I view AoA as a bit of a value+ at this point anyway and think that if they add a transportation stop then you can charge even more for those rooms. The access to PoP is a bit of a challenge - but that is a pretty far walk and might be quicker for them to take the regular bus to EPCOT, etc.

I do get what you are saying - I just have trouble seeing a major transportation addition for just one location. I know it means they can charge more for the points/more points per night but they can already charge a decent amount - so it is just the delta that they would make that would have to justify the expenditure and maintenance / staffing of a new transportation system

 

[mab2012]

So, I'm rehashing here, but I think we all are at this point.

Personally, I don't think the idea of a 3rd Epcot entrance has any credibility at all. Even if you put aside the logistical issues (backstage areas, or whatever), it simply makes no sense to incur the long-term operational costs of a dedicated entrance, plus the non-negligible initial construction costs for that entrance, all for the sake of a one-shot profit on sales. This is a company with a market cap over $170 billion and annual revenue around $50 billion. They're not going to casually pass on an opportunity to bring in a few hundred million, but there are limits to the lengths they will go to make it happen.

So in terms of park access, we're left with the bridge/canal to the existing gate, or maybe dedicated buses. I think both of these are entirely possible. But are they enough? Like I asked upthread, does anyone over the age of 8 actually consider a 20 minute boat ride to be "good" park access? And I can't see anyone getting excited about buses, dedicated or otherwise.

I have to agree with @lockedoutlogic on the location thing. It's great if you're a bird, but otherwise the logistics really aren't promising.

Doesn't mean they won't build a standalone DVC there. And no doubt they'll even sell it, because: "I really want to be part of DVC ! Welcome Home!", "it was what they were selling when I wanted to buy", "I can always trade into another resort", "resale is too complicated" (or "I didn't know resale was a thing"), and "I already spend $5000/year on Disney accommodations, so my $50,000 DVC contract will pay for itself in just 10 years (plus an extra 5 years to pay off the loan interest, and then there's the dues - but those things don't really amount to much, right?)".

The worst thing is that I think a "regular" DVC with sub-par park access could actually be even worse for system balance than the moderate concept I floated earlier. If you assume that both pricing and nightly point costs are similar or even higher than other recent DVC construction (because, if this is a deluxe DVC, you can bet they're not going down) - someone who buys enough points under that structure to stay for a week is going to expect to be able to trade into GF or Poly. And they'll have enough points to do it. At least in a moderate model, buyers would know (or quickly learn) that their 50 or 100 pt contracts are not going far at the deluxe resorts. Plus you have the reverse draw of the point stretchers who might be willing to overlook the reduced amenities of a moderate if the price is right.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

Yes - South FLorida Water Management District, though they are a state agency (there are 5 divided among the major drainage basins of Florida) mandated to review and approve stormwater and wetlands as related to development. They do have south central Florida on down into the Everglades as their jurisdiction. The plan set is too large to post the entire thing, but anyone who wants to view them can pull them up on the website. Disney's master permit number is 48-00714, which you can search for on their permitting site at http://my.sfwmd.gov/ePermitting/PopulateLOVs.do?flag=1. The plans will only show details related to the footprint of development, stormwater management systems, and wetland impacts. Details for buildings will be on building plans filed with Orange County (or Osceola County if talking about WWoS or All Star Resorts) and are not necessary for the SFWMD permits, though sometimes details are inlcuded in the associated information submitted for the permits.

Huh...I did not realize that was a state jurisdiction...

Are they a "puppet" agency?

I.e. State run, federally funded?

 

[lockedoutlogic]

I am so sorry. I didn't mean to leave you out as one of the qualified experts. My point remains the same. We have one person going it's "cheap and easy" and the experts going "nu-uh"

Lol...I'm an "expert" in nothing...

I just pay attention a lot, can read people, and I never forget to follow the money

 

[Mr. Drauer]

Huh...I did not realize that was a state jurisdiction...

Are they a "puppet" agency?

I.e. State run, federally funded?

No, actually they can operate "for profit" and were one of the largest land holders in the state until recently. They operate in the same capacity as the Florida Department of Environmental Protection, though they are not chartered by state statute as the other "state agencies", and they handle commerical development and larger projects, whereas the FDEP handles single family homes, utilities, and other projects smaller than 5 acres typically. They do get a piece of the federal everglades pie, though only as a match to the funds being allocated and used by the federal agencies on restoration there. Disney has its own water management district (the Reedy Creek Improvement District) which handles the oversight of all Disney property, but they cannot approve their own permits, so the SFWMD does as the larger oversight agency with the same jurisdiction. the USACOE handles the federal permitting for Disney too, so each project requires both state and federal approval in relation to development that includes wetlands and stormwater.

As an aside - all of the canals and waterbodies on property, with the exception of Bay Lake, are part of the permitted stormwater management system, which is why it would be so difficult to alter them or dig new areas to suit transportation changes. They are all connected and controlled to meet the permit requirements for treatment volumes, storage times, and extraordinary storm events (like 25 year and 100 year storms).

 

[lockedoutlogic]

No, actually they can operate "for profit" and were one of the largest land holders in the state until recently. They operate in the same capacity as the Florida Department of Environmental Protection, though they are not chartered by state statute as the other "state agencies", and they handle commerical development and larger projects, whereas the FDEP handles single family homes, utilities, and other projects smaller than 5 acres typically. They do get a piece of the federal everglades pie, though only as a match to the funds being allocated and used by the federal agencies on restoration there. Disney has its own water management district (the Reedy Creek Improvement District) which handles the oversight of all Disney property, but they cannot approve their own permits, so the SFWMD does as the larger oversight agency with the same jurisdiction. the USACOE handles the federal permitting for Disney too, so each project requires both state and federal approval in relation to development that includes wetlands and stormwater.

As an aside - all of the canals and waterbodies on property, with the exception of Bay Lake, are part of the permitted stormwater management system, which is why it would be so difficult to alter them or dig new areas to suit transportation changes. They are all connected and controlled to meet the permit requirements for treatment volumes, storage times, and extraordinary storm events (like 25 year and 100 year storms).

Interesting...thanks for the backstory

 

[skier_pete]

Would it not be cheaper to run a dedicated bus stop to the boardwalk bus stop, or even the front gate. A dedicated on demand shuttle. How long before you see the return on that canal investment.....even if the project could afford it.

A dedicated bus would be cheaper...but now you are at best AKV without the animals. There's a pretty well listed desirability list - from lowest to highest.

9) OKW
8) SSR
7) AKV
6) WLV
5) BWV
4) BLT
3) Poly
2) BCV
1) VGF

DVC at CBR even with a direct bus to resorts IMO puts you squarely #10 on this list - trying to be sold at top 3 prices? UNLESS the anemities are fantastic, then maybe you are ahead of OKW or even SSR, but still pretty far down.

DVC at CBR with direct access to a park puts you at #5 or #6 and in very similar standing to WLV which will be selling around the same time. I know some of you will argue that access shouldn't matter this much - but it certainly does.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

This is where the problem is. It doesn't help to grossly inflate the real figures. Pete's example numbers are actually more in line and are very generous at that. Trying to suggest a 1000 ft. canal and a couple of bridges would cost 9 figures is ludicrous at best. Simply not in the realm of reality. Connecting CBR is really a very small project in terms of WDW projects and is a 7 figure or low 8 figure tops.

... not to mention, you can't argue in one post (above) that most of the budget goes for site prep, environmental studies, etc... then argue most of a budget is for art and theming in another post (below).

I didn't argue two different things...if you read closely.

Now, I'm not saying some of the budget figures aren't hocus pocus for internal accounting...they certainly are inflated.

But...some aspects of projects are downsized or eliminated because of those internal bs numbers...

We're not gonna agree here...I think that canal will be a massive, costly project that will ultimately be rejected.

You think it "ain't a biggie" and can be done cheaply by your Florida infrastructure cost estimator app...

Both legitimate stances.

We can agree to disagree.

And...if you are using what they did in the 60's, 70's, 80's as it still holds as how they can do anything easy because they are "the best"...I'd point out that the ship has sailed.

They don't "do that anymore". They also don't spend a nickel more than they have too. Pete pointed out some math about the poly and the dvc sales price being like $700 million. I don't doubt that...but that doesn't mean they spent anywhere near that to do it...a lot of that money goes to the stockholders, my friends...don't doubt that for a second.

Look at what little you get: $500 for fantasyland (actually more because a lot of the site work on 20,000 was done prior)...I have no idea about springs but I'd venture its the same ballpark...and wait till you see what you get for the price tag for avatar...

Maybe I'm missing something...do you know the logistics areas, water displacement system, traffic volumes in that spot between the two areas you say it would be "easy" to connect? Sure seems like you believe you do...

 

[skier_pete]

Like I asked upthread, does anyone over the age of 8 actually consider a 20 minute boat ride to be "good" park access? And I can't see anyone getting excited about buses, dedicated or otherwise.

Well, you can say that - but that's what you have at WL - and while it's not a monorail resort, it's still considered significantly above SSR and OKW to most.

The worst thing is that I think a "regular" DVC with sub-par park access could actually be even worse for system balance than the moderate concept I floated earlier. .

Yes - it would dilute the system even more. Definitely bad for those that want to actually stay at BCV/Poly/BLT at 7 months. UNLESS the point value are on the low side for Deluxe. If they stay near the bottom values. (Say OKW "prices" for most rooms, except for the "Theme Park View" rooms - you could still get a lot of people wanting to go there for the bargain of it.

 

[sachilles]

as an aside, SSR is often looked at as a lower tier. While golf isn't real attraction for me. Having a course on property is a nice perk for certain portion of the population.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

A dedicated bus would be cheaper...but now you are at best AKV without the animals. There's a pretty well listed desirability list - from lowest to highest.

9) OKW
8) SSR
7) AKV
6) WLV
5) BWV
4) BLT
3) Poly
2) BCV
1) VGF

DVC at CBR even with a direct bus to resorts IMO puts you squarely #10 on this list - trying to be sold at top 3 prices? UNLESS the anemities are fantastic, then maybe you are ahead of OKW or even SSR, but still pretty far down.

DVC at CBR with direct access to a park puts you at #5 or #6 and in very similar standing to WLV which will be selling around the same time. I know some of you will argue that access shouldn't matter this much - but it certainly does.

I'm a thinking the "desirability list more heavily affected by the point Costs". The points have escalated...meaning you get less from your upfront purchase and dues...here's mine "adjusted for inflation"...also taking into account availability:

9. Saratoga
8. Okw
7. AKL (should be higher...better value...but there's that "thing" that's a problem)
6. GF (not enough units, too high a point cost)
5. Poly (point cost)
4. Wilderness
3. Boardwalk
2. Contemporay
1. Beachclub

3,2,1 are interchangeable...but you get the best bang for your points there.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

I think if they slap a tower on Caribbean, do barebones for the facilities/grounds, give it a high point chart than it's worth, and then try to sell it as "normal" dvc...it will make existing problems much worse. It will be more a sore thumb than saratoga.

It would work well with the lowest point chart and/or cheaper prices...but what's the problem with that plan?

 

[LaidBackDad]

I didn't argue two different things...if you read closely.

Now, I'm not saying some of the budget figures aren't hocus pocus for internal accounting...they certainly are inflated.

But...some aspects of projects are downsized or eliminated because of those internal bs numbers...

We're not gonna agree here...I think that canal will be a massive, costly project that will ultimately be rejected.

You think it "ain't a biggie" and can be done cheaply by your Florida infrastructure cost estimator app...

Both legitimate stances.

We can agree to disagree.

And...if you are using what they did in the 60's, 70's, 80's as it still holds as how they can do anything easy because they are "the best"...I'd point out that the ship has sailed.

They don't "do that anymore". They also don't spend a nickel more than they have too. Pete pointed out some math about the poly and the dvc sales price being like $700 million. I don't doubt that...but that doesn't mean they spent anywhere near that to do it...a lot of that money goes to the stockholders, my friends...don't doubt that for a second.

Look at what little you get: $500 for fantasyland (actually more because a lot of the site work on 20,000 was done prior)...I have no idea about springs but I'd venture its the same ballpark...and wait till you see what you get for the price tag for avatar...

Maybe I'm missing something...do you know the logistics areas, water displacement system, traffic volumes in that spot between the two areas you say it would be "easy" to connect? Sure seems like you believe you do...

The numbers are relative and neither of us really know what the tipping point is. Even if I believe for a second that that the price tag to connect CBR to to Epcot or DHS starts at $100M (we all know the real cost would be a fraction of that) the ROI dwarfs that number in only a few years. The question isn't can they afford to connect CBR, it's can they afford to NOT connect them. Our real disagreement is I'm envisioning CBR as it might be in the future and how a CBR DVC can fit into the current model. It doesn't seem you can get past they way CBR currently is (or was in the past) and the potential the property has increase revenues with very little effort or cost other than what is already attributed to DVC going on the property.

 

[sachilles]

So what makes Boardwalk, beach club and yacht club so popular?

Is it really that they are walking distance/or a boat ride away from the world Showcase? Or is it that as a cluster, they have have more to offer than the other DVC properties. I think the boardwalk itself is a feature they haven't quite been able to replicate, but maybe that is Disney Springs(or part of the intent).

I feel like the canal linking Epcot to DHS is really the prime spot for any DVC. Yet the frontage seems wasted for parking, and bus stops.

 

[rteetz]

So what makes Boardwalk, beach club and yacht club so popular?

Is it really that they are walking distance/or a boat ride away from the world Showcase? Or is it that as a cluster, they have have more to offer than the other DVC properties. I think the boardwalk itself is a feature they haven't quite been able to replicate, but maybe that is Disney Springs(or part of the intent).

I feel like the canal linking Epcot to DHS is really the prime spot for any DVC. Yet the frontage seems wasted for parking, and bus stops.

Location to two parks, good dining options, atmosphere. You have 5 resorts if you include the swan and dolphin within walking distance. All have good dining options, all have good pools, all have boat and walking distance to two parks. One resort on its own isn't going to do as well as something like BWI/YC/BC.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

But if we follow this thinking, what about Pop? There's a brige that connects PoP and AoA. Couldn't PoP come on over and catch the boat to Epcot/DHS? If we allow direct access from AOA and PoP then do we lose them as value resorts? Do they reclassify them as moderates? Deluxe? I think linking AOA creates another issue.

Yes...to you and your "quotees"...

See what a convoluted Pandora's this entire "canal" discussion is?

It's being marginalized to "minor" as if it's a given...not even close.

Until I see an announcement...the educated guess is that they have ZERO desire to rework the area to dredge canals to connect a dvc tower...

New buses? Sure...that's nothing.

Connect all the spots and put a boat to it? That would require a large scale cost increase at a moderate and a huge value complex...and I bet there are cracks in the bookings in those categories due to price already...and they would risk blowing it open like the deluxes.

There's a decent chance that's why this far fetched dvc in a moderate "pay no Mind to the man behind the curtain" is baked up in the first
Place...

If you're willing to pay $300 a night at port Orleans to get "free dining"...maybe they think your ok with "deluxe rate" at moderates and you are looking to throw $20-25,000 at them?

Membership is magical.

 

[sachilles]

Location to two parks, good dining options, atmosphere. You have 5 resorts if you include the swan and dolphin within walking distance. All have good dining options, all have good pools, all have boat and walking distance to two parks. One resort on its own isn't going to do as well as something like BWI/YC/BC.

Exactly, you have that critical mass.
CBR, will not be that place until it has a lot more too it. A bunch of beds, a restaurant and fireworks viewing are not quite enough.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

Location to two parks, good dining options, atmosphere. You have 5 resorts if you include the swan and dolphin within walking distance. All have good dining options, all have good pools, all have boat and walking distance to two parks. One resort on its own isn't going to do as well as something like BWI/YC/BC.

Not even close...and all that stuff was built with 1980's dollars. The sticker shock now is a huge problem for "the stockholders"

 

[rteetz]

Not even close...and all that stuff was built with 1980's dollars. The sticker shock now is a huge problem for "the stockholders"

I am confused at your point? The poster asked why those resorts are popular. I gave him reasons why they are, nothing with costs and stockholders.