Major DVC Change - Resale Market Only original 14 resort access

[Roxyfire]

Resale value is the only reason why I would even consider DVC. I assume that's a big reason for most people??

For me it was one of multiple factors. Ultimately I chose my home resort based on a mixture of dues, contract expiration (i.e. perceived future demand), and location (Bay Lake Tower). With a longer term and a good location near Magic Kingdom, it's one of those places that people buy solely for the location. I could see someone like me buying it for their first contract or as others have as an add-on to better afford 1 or 2 bedroom units once their family grows.

Edit: with the changes I'm a bit concerned about the long-term viability of existing contracts on the resale market but I guess it's a wait and see scenario after the 19th.

 

[sachilles]

Do folks see this as an opportunity for vultures that are less picky about their benefits and locations?

 

[YesterDark]

What do you mean?

 

[sachilles]

What do you mean?

I mean, if I'm frugal guy, and I don't really care which DVC property to call home. Will the prices drop substantially so that it becomes a better deal after January 19(provided I don't care about the loss of benefits)?
Basically, will the flip side of this be that some folks might get some epic resale deals, at the expense of desperate sellers?

 

[GoofyDisneyDaddy]

I mean, if I'm frugal guy, and I don't really care which DVC property to call home. Will the prices drop substantially so that it becomes a better deal after January 19(provided I don't care about the loss of benefits)?
Basically, will the flip side of this be that some folks might get some epic resale deals, at the expense of desperate sellers?

Maybe in 10-15 years as the expiration of 2042 resorts approaches. Otherwise this change has little effect on the current 14 resorts - all the resorts they can use in existence today they can use after the change. I don’t think much of their resale value, if any, is based on being able to use future resorts. Riviera should resale for cheap though, but if you buy that your choices are Riviera or Riviera. So make sure you like Riviera.

 

[YesterDark]

I mean, if I'm frugal guy, and I don't really care which DVC property to call home. Will the prices drop substantially so that it becomes a better deal after January 19(provided I don't care about the loss of benefits)?
Basically, will the flip side of this be that some folks might get some epic resale deals, at the expense of desperate sellers?

If you want something on the "cheap" you'll probably have to wait for people to buy into Riveria, get tired of it, then try to sell it on the resale market. If anything the value of "legacy" dvc will go up UNTIL they start going down as the end date approaches which I suspect will be about 12 years from when they expire.

Just a guess.

edit:
I suspect "savvy" DVC members will start selling off their old DVC contracts on the market and use that capitol to get in to a newer contract (whether that's from resale or direct).

 

[Roxyfire]

I mean, if I'm frugal guy, and I don't really care which DVC property to call home. Will the prices drop substantially so that it becomes a better deal after January 19(provided I don't care about the loss of benefits)?
Basically, will the flip side of this be that some folks might get some epic resale deals, at the expense of desperate sellers?

I think that can be a risk for existing owners, but right now the picture is still incomplete in regards to Riviera. It truly depends on the demand of the "legacy" resorts and the philosophy of prospective owners going forward. Will Riviera be offering something truly attractive that we don't yet know about that would be "game changing" for a DVC member? Probably not but clearly they want to put a hard limit on the resort going forward.

Personally, I'm not ready to pull out a pitchfork or blazing torch just yet. I think people will still want to stay at Beach Club and Boardwalk, especially during the low-cost seasons. I think people will still buy into SSR with the hopes of trading into more "attractive" resorts. But going forward this will limit people using that strategy to stay at newer resorts.

 

[skippytx]

Resale value is the only reason why I would even consider DVC. I assume that's a big reason for most people??

I will say the ability to sell the contract, and the demand for resale contracts was a huge factor in us buying into DVC. If we tire of WDW in 10 years we knew we could get out of it. We didn't count on breaking even, or even selling for more $ per point then we paid, it was just the ability to sell. You hear horror stories about timeshares where people have to pay other people just to take them. So the end value isn't the big deal to us, but the strong resale market and the possibility of selling.

We travel other places and would never ever consider a timeshare at the beach or anywhere else, but WDW made sense for us.

 

[crvetter]

One thing I wonder about is did DVC purposefully make this change to artificially inflate resales of the "legacy" resorts while driving down the resales of the new resorts? Essentially for resorts that expire in 2042 they won't depreciate as fast as they would have if new resorts kept being put into the new club. By doing this they remove the ability of people buying tons of cheap points to cause a huge bottleneck in the newer resorts that was sure to happen in 10-15 years.

While I think other items could have been utilized to achieve the same goal, perhaps this was just the method they decided on. Perhaps the limitations on resales is meant exclusively for this purpose, really expiring resorts (especially since they are large in size compared to the new ones) are going to be a problem eventually. Expiring resorts won't be refurbished as rapidly too which will even make them less desirable to stay at (lowering the cost even further). This prevents the problem from every occurring in the new club because Disney can afford the ROFR and just purchase out an undesirable resort close to the end of its lease faster (and old resorts can't book into the new club--they just won't exercise ROFR on old resorts).

The nice thing DVC could do is offer to extend the 14 legacy resorts for a fee (similar to OKW) so they all expire in 2054-2068 thus getting the window of them phasing out more manageable. But I think this would be unlikely.

 

[YesterDark]

This is only limited the new resorts not the old ones. So this really hurts the resale market some time in the future when people start selling out of the two new resorts. So unless these two new resorts are so amazing that they will need to keep legacy resale dvc points out of the market, I don't really see any major effect to anyone.

I can't think of anything special that will make people flock to these resorts outside taste and style.

 

[sachilles]

Perhaps there is a yet to be released detail/perk.

Earlier fast pass reservation, free minnie van rides, Extra fast passes, extra extra magic hours.

I feel like we are the edge(galaxy's edge) of some new special perk. This small DVC change is the first step.

 

[cmwade77]

Yea, I don't get it. Maybe legally they can't limit access to the 14 resorts due to whatever is in the DVC contracts ? Assuming they are going to change those for the new builds. The date is also interesting, esp as I am hearing whispers on the pricing of DRR, and they are releasing teaser adverts for it, must be getting ready to pop the lid off it.

I would think that this would be the case, I mean we did buy in figuring that even if we sold, we could trade between at least these resorts.

What is really interesting is that resales of the new resorts will only be able to be used at those resorts, I would think this will dramatically reduce their potential resale value. I am wondering if this is also about trying to make sure rooms remain available better, not sure.

 

[DisFanDad]

I would think that this would be the case, I mean we did buy in figuring that even if we sold, we could trade between at least these resorts.

What is really interesting is that resales of the new resorts will only be able to be used at those resorts, I would think this will dramatically reduce their potential resale value. I am wondering if this is also about trying to make sure rooms remain available better, not sure.

I don't think this has anything to do with availability, but rather I think this is Disney trying to cut out the resale market completely on the new resorts. The Resale value will be so reduced that exercising ROFR will be a no brainer, and they will then flip them back and sell them full price.

 

[Novakm]

I wonder how they can make this work from a legal perspective. They will need to put controls in place to ensure that if I’m a resale buyer, I can’t be denied use of my real estate interest because people from other resorts traded in, when I can’t trade out.

Seems to me the entire resort either needs to be “in” or “out” of trading.

Suppose this unlikely but possible scenario: I buy Riviera resale. I want to make a reservation, but the resort is fully booked for the entire year by people who don’t own there. I can’t trade out, so my points are worthless. Obviously, this would be denying me the use of my real estate interest.

Fully booked for a year is an extreme example, but the same logic works for any given day. They need to make sure that the number of points traded in does not exceed the number traded out.

I don’t know how they could do this without setting aside inventory just for resale buyers. But then that could potentially limit direct buyers rights.

Another scenario: I’m the only resale buyer for BC after the cutof date. I want to book Christmas week. For that week no BC points are being used at Riviera, but a Riviera owner booked a studio at BC. There is a studio available at Riviera, but I can’t book it. Again, pretty clear that I’m being denied use of my real estate.

 

[LYSE]

I wonder how they can make this work from a legal perspective. They will need to put controls in place to ensure that if I’m a resale buyer, I can’t be denied use of my real estate interest because people from other resorts traded in, when I can’t trade out.

Seems to me the entire resort either needs to be “in” or “out” of trading.

Suppose this unlikely but possible scenario: I buy Riviera resale. I want to make a reservation, but the resort is fully booked for the entire year by people who don’t own there. I can’t trade out, so my points are worthless. Obviously, this would be denying me the use of my real estate interest.

Fully booked for a year is an extreme example, but the same logic works for any given day. They need to make sure that the number of points traded in does not exceed the number traded out.

I don’t know how they could do this without setting aside inventory just for resale buyers. But then that could potentially limit direct buyers rights.

Another scenario: I’m the only resale buyer for BC after the cutof date. I want to book Christmas week. For that week no BC points are being used at Riviera, but a Riviera owner booked a studio at BC. There is a studio available at Riviera, but I can’t book it. Again, pretty clear that I’m being denied use of my real estate.

I was wondering if they are planning to set traded points aside and have them in separate inventory similar to how they take points traded for cruises and add it to the cash inventory

 

[icc2515]

Suppose this unlikely but possible scenario: I buy Riviera resale. I want to make a reservation, but the resort is fully booked for the entire year by people who don’t own there. I can’t trade out, so my points are worthless. Obviously, this would be denying me the use of my real estate interest.

You will always be able to book a stay at the 7-11 home resort priority, so there will be no denying you the use of your real estate interest. Now I am not saying that you will be able to get the time you want, say the 1st 2 weeks in Dec, but you will be able to get a reservation before the non owners at 7 months are able to book. I would say that buying new resorts resale and not wanting to plan really far out will be a mistake.

 

[DisFanDad]

You will always be able to book a stay at the 7-11 home resort priority, so there will be no denying you the use of your real estate interest. Now I am not saying that you will be able to get the time you want, say the 1st 2 weeks in Dec, but you will be able to get a reservation before the non owners at 7 months are able to book. I would say that buying new resorts resale and not wanting to plan really far out will be a mistake.

I generally get your point, but that isn't actually the case, its quite possible, even as things currently are, to attempt to book in the 7 - 11month home window and not be able to book anything you want, just ask people at the GF and Poly ...

 

[JETSDAD]

I generally get your point, but that isn't actually the case, its quite possible, even as things currently are, to attempt to book in the 7 - 11month home window and not be able to book anything you want, just ask people at the GF and Poly ...

Actually Poly is very easy to book 7-11 (right now there is nearly full availability for both Standard and LV Studios from the beginning of July until the first week of December, so through the entire fall frenzy). GF also has a lot of availability. When people complain about availability it is often for the very limited categories or the very busiest times such as the first 2 weeks of December and for studios or they are waiting until beyond the 7 month mark to book. 7-11 there is always something to book at your home resort.

 

[DisFanDad]

Actually Poly is very easy to book 7-11 (right now there is nearly full availability for both Standard and LV Studios from the beginning of July until the first week of December, so through the entire fall frenzy). GF also has a lot of availability. When people complain about availability it is often for the very limited categories or the very busiest times such as the first 2 weeks of December and for studios or they are waiting until beyond the 7 month mark to book. 7-11 there is always something to book at your home resort.

There really isn't, not during, as you noted, the busiest time of year: ie: when a lot of people want to use their timeshare purchase. Which goes back to the OP's point, though, I agree it wouldn't be denying them use of their real estate, it would be denying them use of it when they wanted to use it (potentially).

I have seen dozens of posts by people here, on other boards, on social media, about being unable to book the rooms they want on the day their 11 month window opens.

I've never experienced that (I own at AKV though), but it happens, often.

 

[STLstone]

I don't think this has anything to do with availability, but rather I think this is Disney trying to cut out the resale market completely on the new resorts. The Resale value will be so reduced that exercising ROFR will be a no brainer, and they will then flip them back and sell them full price.

In reality, if the resale market for the new points is being cut out, that makes the points less valuable - even as an initial investment.

I think others have been saying this same thing, but it appears Disney is banking on people not totally understanding this - or Disney is just assuming there are enough people who think "I'm never going to want to sell these points anyway..."