Keeping Ukraine in our thoughts and prayers here

[Orion Nebula]

I don't foresee NATO/EU forces in Ukraine anytime soon. I think, it's likely that Ukraine will fall to Russia. The economic sanctions are really hurting Russians, but I don't think that's going to stop Russia from finishing off Ukraine.

I do think the best hope for Ukraine is mercs right now as it's the only way to get the training and weapons into Ukraine without the forces being a part of a EU country.

Ukraine will fall before the end of the year, and I feel like that might be generous.

 

[RamblingMad]

Looks like the end result will be that Putin will merge Ukraine into Russia. And the cost of food and gas will go up for Europe. We'll also see some of the impact in the US as well.

At this point, I don't see what the sanctions are doing other than hurting Russian citizens. It's not like they can vote Putin out.

 

[lynxstch]

 

[Colleen27]

My point was that "largely controlled" is not TOTAL control and the real world still penetrates the toughest dictatorships. Outside sources still work their way in, even under the tightest controls.

Otherwise, there would be no dissension inside of Russia -- but there is, and it's been well-documented.

Yeah, Soviet-level total control is near impossible in the age of information. There are just too many work-arounds, especially when the force of global public opinion is against the controlling government. In addition to the usual Internet-based ways of circumventing totalitarian governments that have been going on for decades now, since the conflict started, hackers have been attempting to disrupt and hijack Russian state media outlets. Some of that has just manifested as outages, but there are reports that Anonymous had Russia state television broadcasting fact-based news reports of what is happening in Ukraine for at least a little while over the last several days.

 

[JimMIA]

There are stories that some of the younger soldiers are conscripts who were only told that they were on some "training exercise" and weren't prepared to send or receive live fire.

Right. The text messages between the young Russian soldier and his mother shortly before he was killed showed that clearly.

 

[JimMIA]

I have been greatly perplexed by reports of “talks and negotiation” between the two parties. What on God’s good earth would the Ukraine be willing to negotiate away to end this baffling siege? They are blameless and owe nothing to Russia.

I had the same response to the idea of peace talks. Probably more like surrender and we will stop killing everybody.

Yeah, I have no idea what kind of a solution they could possibly negotiate. I can only assume the Ukrainians are just using negotiations to get more arms and ammunition IN and more people OUT.

The Russian goal is obviously to flip Ukraine from Western-leaning to a Russian puppet like Belarus. But I don't see how they do that when so many Ukrainian civilians now have weapons and ammunition. Surely Russia knows they can't "win" a guerilla war against the entire population of Ukraine...any more than they did in Afghanistan.

 

[Planogirl]

Macron and others are saying that Putin likely won’t stop with Ukraine. He might want the whole Soviet bloc back.

 

[Moliphino]

Macron and others are saying that Putin likely won’t stop with Ukraine. He might want the whole Soviet bloc back.

He'll run into big problems if he attacks the ones that are now in NATO.

 

[Karin1984]

An analist here in NL gave four possible outcomes (Written yesterday)

1. The wonder of Dnjepr
With equipment of NATO Ukraine will be able to stop the Russians at Dnjepr in the middle of the country.
Russia will start to realize that they are paying an extremely high price for a long and bloody war. Russia will be economically ruined and isolated.
Regretfully Putin will retreat due to pressure from his own people and the Russians.
Ukraine will be successful in becoming part of the EU.
It's unclear if Putin will change Russia into a full dictatorship or if the Russians will throw him out.

2. The swamp
After weeks of bloody fights in Kiev and other cities, Putin is able to overthrow the Ukraine government.
The Ukraine army and people do not surrender and will continue with a guerilla war in small groups. The Russian victory will turn out to be a false one.
Russian will be financially and morally on the edge with lots of casualties on their side.
After years of fighting (with Ukraine supported by EU) Russia's treasure chest will be empty and their economy ruined. Then they will retreat.
They will realize that they have their own Afghanistan. They started a war that couldn't be won. Putin's reputation will go down the drain and people will start to publically doubt him.

3. A new Iron Curtain
Kiev will give in to the pressure. With heavy weapons Russia has been able to gain control. The resistance against a puppet government in Ukraine will be brutally surpressed and the resistance is not able to withstand it.
However, Russia needs to stay in Ukraine with large numbers of soldiers and a new Iron Curtain will form the Baltic states via Poland and Romania.
Spite the resistance in his own country and the economic pain, Putin will be able to strengthen his own position.
The NATO countries will get even closer and Finland and Sweden will join as well. NATO troops and Russians stare at each other again over a border of barbed wire and mines. Afraid that any unexpected incident could turn into a world war.
Moscow is regular launching "Military exercises" and Russia's hybrid warfare is kicking into even higher gear.

4. War between NATO and Russia
The most dangerous.
a. NATO decides to establish a no fly zone over Ukraine. They don't want it now because it's too dangerous, but the influx of refugees causes that the West has to do something.
Russia are faced with accepting it without resistance or will deploy their aircrafts and air defenses against NATO's fighter jets. If this happens, it's only one large-scale clash between the two armies.

b. Russia will (intentional or not) hit a NATO country. With a still decreasing supply of precision weapons chances of a bombing 'by accident'. This will trigger a reaction by bringing down a plane, which triggers a counter reaction etc. Till we are in a war neither party can retreat from gracefully.

c. Putin has bigger plans than just Ukraine. After success in Ukraine he will focus on the Baltic states. NATO will not give in and Putin will start sending troops to the baltics.

It is unclear which of these scenarios is most likely in the fog of war is. It is clear, to the analist, that the war is not in favour of Putin. Putin hadnt expected the resistance nor that Zelinsky /Ukrainian people would be able to inspire and be supported by the Western people and governments. But it is not over yet and Putin still has some cards in his pocket.

 

[bcla]

An analist here in NL gave four possible outcomes (Written yesterday)

1. The wonder of Dnjepr
With equipment of NATO Ukraine will be able to stop the Russians at Dnjepr in the middle of the country.
Russia will start to realize that they are paying an extremely high price for a long and bloody war. Russia will be economically ruined and isolated.
Regretfully Putin will retreat due to pressure from his own people and the Russians.
Ukraine will be successful in becoming part of the EU.
It's unclear if Putin will change Russia into a full dictatorship or if the Russians will throw him out.

2. The swamp
After weeks of bloody fights in Kiev and other cities, Putin is able to overthrow the Ukraine government.
The Ukraine army and people do not surrender and will continue with a guerilla war in small groups. The Russian victory will turn out to be a false one.
Russian will be financially and morally on the edge with lots of casualties on their side.
After years of fighting (with Ukraine supported by EU) Russia's treasure chest will be empty and their economy ruined. Then they will retreat.
They will realize that they have their own Afghanistan. They started a war that couldn't be won. Putin's reputation will go down the drain and people will start to publically doubt him.

3. A new Iron Curtain
Kiev will give in to the pressure. With heavy weapons Russia has been able to gain control. The resistance against a puppet government in Ukraine will be brutally surpressed and the resistance is not able to withstand it.
However, Russia needs to stay in Ukraine with large numbers of soldiers and a new Iron Curtain will form the Baltic states via Poland and Romania.
Spite the resistance in his own country and the economic pain, Putin will be able to strengthen his own position.
The NATO countries will get even closer and Finland and Sweden will join as well. NATO troops and Russians stare at each other again over a border of barbed wire and mines. Afraid that any unexpected incident could turn into a world war.
Moscow is regular launching "Military exercises" and Russia's hybrid warfare is kicking into even higher gear.

4. War between NATO and Russia
The most dangerous.
1. NATO decides to establish a no fly zone over Ukraine. They don't want it now because it's too dangerous, but the influx of refugees causes that the West has to do something.
Russia are faced with accepting it without resistance or will deploy their aircrafts and air defenses against NATO's fighter jets. If this happens, it's only one large-scale clash between the two armies.

2. Russia will (intentional or not) hit a NATO country. With a still decreasing supply of precision weapons chances of a bombing 'by accident'. This will trigger a reaction by bringing down a plane, which triggers a counter reaction etc. Till we are in a war neither party can retreat from gracefully.

3. Putin has bigger plans than just Ukraine. After success in Ukraine he will focus on the Baltic states. NATO will not give in and Putin will start sending troops to the baltics.

It is unclear which of these scenarios is most likely in the fog of war is. It is clear, to the analist, that the war is not in favour of Putin. Putin hadnt expected the resistance nor that Zelinsky /Ukrainian people would be able to inspire and be supported by the Western people and governments. But it is not over yet and Putin still has some cards in his pocket.

Just one thing. The word is analyst. Other than that, carry on.

 

[Karin1984]

Just one thing. The word is analyst. Other than that, carry on.

I am Dutch, my phone is Dutch, my autocorrect is Dutch. We spell it with an i.

 

[mom2rtk]

Macron and others are saying that Putin likely won’t stop with Ukraine. He might want the whole Soviet bloc back.

Just add water and reconstitute.

 

[Christine]

An analist here in NL gave four possible outcomes (Written yesterday)

1. The wonder of Dnjepr
With equipment of NATO Ukraine will be able to stop the Russians at Dnjepr in the middle of the country.
Russia will start to realize that they are paying an extremely high price for a long and bloody war. Russia will be economically ruined and isolated.
Regretfully Putin will retreat due to pressure from his own people and the Russians.
Ukraine will be successful in becoming part of the EU.
It's unclear if Putin will change Russia into a full dictatorship or if the Russians will throw him out.

2. The swamp
After weeks of bloody fights in Kiev and other cities, Putin is able to overthrow the Ukraine government.
The Ukraine army and people do not surrender and will continue with a guerilla war in small groups. The Russian victory will turn out to be a false one.
Russian will be financially and morally on the edge with lots of casualties on their side.
After years of fighting (with Ukraine supported by EU) Russia's treasure chest will be empty and their economy ruined. Then they will retreat.
They will realize that they have their own Afghanistan. They started a war that couldn't be won. Putin's reputation will go down the drain and people will start to publically doubt him.

3. A new Iron Curtain
Kiev will give in to the pressure. With heavy weapons Russia has been able to gain control. The resistance against a puppet government in Ukraine will be brutally surpressed and the resistance is not able to withstand it.
However, Russia needs to stay in Ukraine with large numbers of soldiers and a new Iron Curtain will form the Baltic states via Poland and Romania.
Spite the resistance in his own country and the economic pain, Putin will be able to strengthen his own position.
The NATO countries will get even closer and Finland and Sweden will join as well. NATO troops and Russians stare at each other again over a border of barbed wire and mines. Afraid that any unexpected incident could turn into a world war.
Moscow is regular launching "Military exercises" and Russia's hybrid warfare is kicking into even higher gear.

4. War between NATO and Russia
The most dangerous.
1. NATO decides to establish a no fly zone over Ukraine. They don't want it now because it's too dangerous, but the influx of refugees causes that the West has to do something.
Russia are faced with accepting it without resistance or will deploy their aircrafts and air defenses against NATO's fighter jets. If this happens, it's only one large-scale clash between the two armies.

2. Russia will (intentional or not) hit a NATO country. With a still decreasing supply of precision weapons chances of a bombing 'by accident'. This will trigger a reaction by bringing down a plane, which triggers a counter reaction etc. Till we are in a war neither party can retreat from gracefully.

3. Putin has bigger plans than just Ukraine. After success in Ukraine he will focus on the Baltic states. NATO will not give in and Putin will start sending troops to the baltics.

It is unclear which of these scenarios is most likely in the fog of war is. It is clear, to the analist, that the war is not in favour of Putin. Putin hadnt expected the resistance nor that Zelinsky /Ukrainian people would be able to inspire and be supported by the Western people and governments. But it is not over yet and Putin still has some cards in his pocket.

Sadly, I'm feeling #3. I *really* hope I am wrong.

 

[bcla]

I am Dutch, my phone is Dutch, my autocorrect is Dutch. We spell it with an i.

I can certainly understand that. However, it might cause a bit of confusion as that's not generally an English language spelling difference. It took me a a few seconds to understand your intent.

 

[SirDuff]

I can certainly understand that. However, it might cause a bit of confusion as that's not generally an English language spelling difference. It took me a a few seconds to understand your intent.

It was obvious to most of us. And, even it wasn’t, did it take away from the meaning of the post? No, it did not.

 

[SirDuff]

I am Dutch, my phone is Dutch, my autocorrect is Dutch. We spell it with an i.

Would I get in trouble if I referred to Putin as Poutine? That’s legitimately how we spell it here.

 

[Moliphino]

It was obvious to most of us. And, even it wasn’t, did it take away from the meaning of the post? No, it did not.

I didn't even notice.

 

[Karin1984]

Would I get in trouble if I referred to Putin as Poutine? That’s legitimately how we spell it here.

I was more thinking of all the threads to point out a spelling error or grammatical error, this is the worst.

Poutine doesn't exist in the US, I do think Canadians might have an issue

A decade or so ago, I had a problem with the spelling of Gaddafi, there were so many different spellings of that man's name throughout the world! Start with a g or k? How many d's, how many f's ? Is there an h in there?

Let's get back to what really matters: The horror the Ukranian people face, how unfairly Russian people around the world will be judged for being Russian for the coming years, and IKEA closing down in Russia and Belarus, causing quite long lines.
Or a sign that Putin has trouble reaching the younger generation, some Russian influencers are the sons and daughters of the oligarchs. These rich kids use their social media platforms and influence to protest against the war. Even when they do not say specifically they support Ukraine, they call for a peace.

 

[JimMIA]

Sadly, I'm feeling #3. I *really* hope I am wrong.

Which #3? There are two #3's.

 

[Karin1984]

Which #3? There are two #3's.

Yes, that was confusing in the news article I quoted it from, let me change the second list to a, b, and c