Fastpass return or replacement?

I'm excited about this in part precisely BECAUSE everyone can only make one reservation at a time. I'm not a "Stay on-site for a week+" Disney traveller. As such, I'm happy that when I go to visit next time all the good FP's won't be scooped up long before I even have a shot at them, nor do I want to play the "Pound the app" refresh game fighting for table scraps.
Don't kid yourself, every good time slot for every ride will be gone within an hour of the park opening. Your $15 is basically a roulette wheel of will I get to ride it when I want. And that's for Whinnie the Pooh, not Space Mountain. Space Mountain will cost you $20 to get to ride it once without waiting 2 hours.
 
I'm really curious how many people who usually stay deluxe or club level are going to downgrade to value or even offsite as there are no real benefits to staying deluxe

I am deluxe person. I have stayed value and offsite as well, but deluxe has always had my heart. However, I have been doing more offsite recently. This is just pushing me to even more offsite. To be honest, I get more bang for my buck getting a house for 7 days and booking a 1 or 2 night stay at the All stars, which over laps if I want to do a night or 2 of EE, and it’s still cheaper then deluxe. We get tons of space and food cost goes down too. It’s a pretty clear win for my family.

the only real current negative to being off site is the 30 minute early entry we wouldn’t get.
 
but doesnt this just mean everyone is going to "pound the app" for everything all day long now?
There are always going to be guests who will "pound the app" to get the next G+ reservation that is close in time. If we were to decide to purchase G+, I can envision doing the 30-minute early access for onsite (and select offsite) guests and making a beeline for a LL$ attraction. All the while, holding a G+ for an early attraction. Hitting that attraction and pounding the app for my next G+, wait in a short PQ (physical queue) or two until that second G+ and then grabbing another G+ after checking in at the second one. This was the same strategy for FP- without having to cross the park for the paper ticket, not knowing when that return time might be.
 
Don't kid yourself, every good time slot for every ride will be gone within an hour of the park opening. Your $15 is basically a roulette wheel of will I get to ride it when I want. And that's for Whinnie the Pooh, not Space Mountain. Space Mountain will cost you $20 to get to ride it once without waiting 2 hours.
I disagree. Unlike FP+, guests will only be able to book one G+, not 3 advance FP+. That's going to leave plenty of G+ throughout the day. The attractions that typically ran out of FP+ by mid-day are the very ones that will be LL$. There will still be some tier 2 attractions that will sell out earlier than others but I really doubt that all the "good" time slots will be sold out within an hour of park opening.
 
I’m good with paying for the two headliners and being able to book those ahead (at 7am). But I’m worried about the availability of the 15$/day rides throughout the day. The lack of a solid plan ahead of time is concerning.
 
I disagree. Unlike FP+, guests will only be able to book one G+, not 3 advance FP+. That's going to leave plenty of G+ throughout the day. The attractions that typically ran out of FP+ by mid-day are the very ones that will be LL$. There will still be some tier 2 attractions that will sell out earlier than others but I really doubt that all the "good" time slots will be sold out within an hour of park opening.
I hope you are right, I really do. But I have my doubts.
 
There are always going to be guests who will "pound the app" to get the next G+ reservation that is close in time. If we were to decide to purchase G+, I can envision doing the 30-minute early access for onsite (and select offsite) guests and making a beeline for a LL$ attraction. All the while, holding a G+ for an early attraction. Hitting that attraction and pounding the app for my next G+, wait in a short PQ (physical queue) or two until that second G+ and then grabbing another G+ after checking in at the second one. This was the same strategy for FP- without having to cross the park for the paper ticket, not knowing when that return time might be.

Agreed
 
I'm curious how many of the paid LL passes they will sell each day. In the before times, we've all stood in fast pass lines that at times weren't so fast. They were just fast-er than the standby line. Now that they cost money people aren't going to be so forgiving about that. They are going to expect a very short line, so I can see the amount being sold as much smaller than the number of FP's that were available under the old system.

That got me thinking that the only real distinction between staying onsite vs off with the system is the ability to purchase the paid LL passes at 7 AM vs when you're in the parks. It could be quite possible, especially during busier times, that offsite guests will be shut out of purchasing them. Their only chance to ride those attractions would be standby or VQ for Rise and Rat (which will be even harder to get than before as there will be less spots available). Time will tell if I'm right about that, but there is definitely the potential for Disney to manipulate the LL pass sales to the detriment of offsite guests to encourage staying onsite.
 
I disagree. Unlike FP+, guests will only be able to book one G+, not 3 advance FP+. That's going to leave plenty of G+ throughout the day. The attractions that typically ran out of FP+ by mid-day are the very ones that will be LL$. There will still be some tier 2 attractions that will sell out earlier than others but I really doubt that all the "good" time slots will be sold out within an hour of park opening.
There also won't be people having booked FP's who don't end up going to the park. Before, people could make 3 FP's just in case they decided to go to the park, or to play around with while at home, but not many will want to pay $15 and not go.
 
I’m good with paying for the two headliners and being able to book those ahead (at 7am). But I’m worried about the availability of the 15$/day rides throughout the day. The lack of a solid plan ahead of time is concerning.
Trying to play Devil's Advocate, I can see my party starting out in say Adventureland and riding Jungle Cruise, Pirates, magic carpets, etc while trying to set up a reservation for say Mansion as that will be next if we go follow along. if I can nail that in say an hour or so, ride that and while waiting try to hit maybe a Peter pan. Based on wait time maybe ride small world if regular line isn't long. Something like that. (just an example, no real plan here)

I can see how it MIGHT be done, but it's going to require work and constant staring at the phone to really get it done. If things are regularly available, then ok. If not, it's going to be a disaster.
 
For guest behavior and availability, it's probably best to compare G+ to the original paper FP system and not the mobile based FP+ that most are now used to. But the added wrinkle would be where the popular attraction paper FPs were all gone in the morning ... those would now not be part of G+, but will be the additional paid LL access.
 
I disagree. Unlike FP+, guests will only be able to book one G+, not 3 advance FP+. That's going to leave plenty of G+ throughout the day. The attractions that typically ran out of FP+ by mid-day are the very ones that will be LL$. There will still be some tier 2 attractions that will sell out earlier than others but I really doubt that all the "good" time slots will be sold out within an hour of park opening.

Same. I was at DLP in 2019 mid summer with a packed park using their old FP system. One at a time, can't get a new one until your first one or 2 hours has lapsed. Rope dropped Studios to ride Crush's coaster (as it wasn't on the FP system), then with a general touring plan picked up FPs one at a time for the key headliners based on knowing which ones tended to "sell out" first (but by no means did any "sell out" within the first 2 hours). It worked beautifully with a mix of FPs for some that are needed to get an under hour wait and other that are people eaters (like Small World, Pirates) that don't really need it (that had waits around 30 min ish because no one would get FPs for those while they held an FP for a headliner).

I suspect (and hope) it'll work like this roughly in practice (because in essence, it's the same thing only digital). So I'm optimistic this system will work way better for me than how FP+ did.
 
That got me thinking that the only real distinction between staying onsite vs off with the system is the ability to purchase the paid LL passes at 7 AM vs when you're in the parks.
Another distinction is onsite stay will have an easier time knocking out some hard rides with Early Entry. They'll be able to accomplish certain LLs that way instead of needing to consider buying.

For Deluxe they'll be able to knock out some of the hardest rides in the pmEMH parks too.

The added value for onsite is less need to pay for Genie's assistance for those wanting to avoid the longest waits.

Personally if we decide to buy the Genie+ $15/day upgrade, we'll just trade off that expense by not buying our usual AH or Party ticket that trip. I don't see this system increasing our trip cost significantly, maybe not all. If park touring goes smoother overall, Genie will be an advantage to us.
 
I agree that we may see a bunch of empty cars, but Disney may try to get Genie (free version) to keep throwing notices to the 1st timers or in-experienced guests that 'Hey, Rat VQ is open for reservation RIGHT NOW no wait' to make them think they won the lottery and pull demand from other VQs.

Based on the above, you'd be crazy to pay for Rat, but you'll have to wait until you use up one of your other free VQ reservations before you pick the Rat VQ.

But yeah, Rat is a fast loader and there is no legit demand reason for it to go VQ
THIS is the center of the new system. GENIE will keep reminding you that ' FIR JUST $$ YOUR FAMILY CAN GET ON **** RIGHT NOW".. Goal is to whittle you down to spend just a few more $. Whats another few dollars ----time is money
 

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