Crystal Ball: Where do you see resale prices going for rest of 2025?

[Girlstar30]

I am speculating that rofr would slow down with stocks down. Direct sales might slow down with a weaker economic backdrop. There might be some Canadians selling their dvc contracts to protest the trade dispute - but a strong usd makes it attractive for them to sell the contract and vacation where the currency is weaker.

I am hoping this opens up some fire sale direct dvc opportunities. Maybe a repeat of their VGF or OKW sales, either at these locations or in spirit resorts in active sales.

Disney is likely in a cash raising mode to buy back shares vs buying/holding dvc contracts.

I'm holding out on buying direct for this reason too until later this year. Now more than ever I think people will be more cautious to buy and there will be some good incentives. I wish I could see data on how much has sold since this latest incentive round went on sale. That will help me decide if it's worth waiting as well

 

[🍀TwinsMom]

I think it drops a bit, but I view it as normalizing more than a scary DVC recession. Revenge travel and stimulus checks really juiced the resale market. I think the VGF and OKWe fire sale in recent years sent a very large message that direct points around $135-$155 is the sweet spot to get a ton of points sold. $235+ is tough if we hit a recession.

We're now five years post C19 (!) and all resorts are five years older with less years to use points, so they SHOULD drop in price. I think lots of folks got spoiled with points that appreciated in value over the years, but now we're getting on the other end of the balance of resorts having less years to use.

We don't need any more points, and one member of our department got the Musk/DOGE "prove your worth with five things you did this week by Monday midnight" a few weeks ago, so dropping thousands of dollars on a timeshare doesn't seem prudent for the coming few years, and we really are fine with what we have, but I still enjoy researching all things DVC/park expansion/Skyliner news and love having the option to swap out to the other resorts. I'm LSL/cabin curious! I would never buy there, but it might be a nice change of pace one trip.

 

[Patmcpsu]

I heard that Disney may lower the prices of their hotel rates to make trips more affordable. No details about how much they'll lower it, but it makes sense because the current rates are insane. A lot of DVC's allure is to evade those offensive hotel rates.

If a Deluxe resort only costs $500/nt, a family may be willing to take the financial hit. At $800/nt, it makes them start googling for workarounds. I think "googling for workarounds" causes more demand for DVC than the official DVC marketing does.

Perversely, DVC owners should want the rack rates at hotels to be as exploitive as possible.

 

[Disney.dad]

I definitely see the actual prices being charged by Disney with discounts, rate changes, AP discounts, etc as a big issue for the value of DVC. When factoring in opportunity cost/interest on the purchase price as well as depreciation in value plus dues compared to discounted rack rate rooms the savings definitely erode. Disney and companies love to do big savings sales to get people to buy so we may continue to see larger and larger discounts from inflated rack rates on rooms and larger discounts on the ever increasing base cost of DVC.

 

[New Mouse]

The scary part I think everyone tends to miss is that the US is very quickly becoming an unpopular vacation destination for world travelers. International visitation had already dropped off so this probably isn't the best news for DVC prices going forward for a long time.