Crystal Ball: Where do you see resale prices going for rest of 2025?

[Girlstar30]

I am speculating that rofr would slow down with stocks down. Direct sales might slow down with a weaker economic backdrop. There might be some Canadians selling their dvc contracts to protest the trade dispute - but a strong usd makes it attractive for them to sell the contract and vacation where the currency is weaker.

I am hoping this opens up some fire sale direct dvc opportunities. Maybe a repeat of their VGF or OKW sales, either at these locations or in spirit resorts in active sales.

Disney is likely in a cash raising mode to buy back shares vs buying/holding dvc contracts.

I'm holding out on buying direct for this reason too until later this year. Now more than ever I think people will be more cautious to buy and there will be some good incentives. I wish I could see data on how much has sold since this latest incentive round went on sale. That will help me decide if it's worth waiting as well

 

[🍀TwinsMom]

I think it drops a bit, but I view it as normalizing more than a scary DVC recession. Revenge travel and stimulus checks really juiced the resale market. I think the VGF and OKWe fire sale in recent years sent a very large message that direct points around $135-$155 is the sweet spot to get a ton of points sold. $235+ is tough if we hit a recession.

We're now five years post C19 (!) and all resorts are five years older with less years to use points, so they SHOULD drop in price. I think lots of folks got spoiled with points that appreciated in value over the years, but now we're getting on the other end of the balance of resorts having less years to use.

We don't need any more points, and one member of our department got the Musk/DOGE "prove your worth with five things you did this week by Monday midnight" a few weeks ago, so dropping thousands of dollars on a timeshare doesn't seem prudent for the coming few years, and we really are fine with what we have, but I still enjoy researching all things DVC/park expansion/Skyliner news and love having the option to swap out to the other resorts. I'm LSL/cabin curious! I would never buy there, but it might be a nice change of pace one trip.

 

[Patmcpsu]

I heard that Disney may lower the prices of their hotel rates to make trips more affordable. No details about how much they'll lower it, but it makes sense because the current rates are insane. A lot of DVC's allure is to evade those offensive hotel rates.

If a Deluxe resort only costs $500/nt, a family may be willing to take the financial hit. At $800/nt, it makes them start googling for workarounds. I think "googling for workarounds" causes more demand for DVC than the official DVC marketing does.

Perversely, DVC owners should want the rack rates at hotels to be as exploitive as possible.

 

[Disney.dad]

I definitely see the actual prices being charged by Disney with discounts, rate changes, AP discounts, etc as a big issue for the value of DVC. When factoring in opportunity cost/interest on the purchase price as well as depreciation in value plus dues compared to discounted rack rate rooms the savings definitely erode. Disney and companies love to do big savings sales to get people to buy so we may continue to see larger and larger discounts from inflated rack rates on rooms and larger discounts on the ever increasing base cost of DVC.

 

[New Mouse]

The scary part I think everyone tends to miss is that the US is very quickly becoming an unpopular vacation destination for world travelers. International visitation had already dropped off so this probably isn't the best news for DVC prices going forward for a long time.

 

[disneylandtour]

I've been pointing to this for the last couple of months. But the economic uncertainty and with the Dow continuing to go down, I think this spells recession selling. Resale functions mostly on market conditions. I'm pretty sure resale pricing goes down, at least in the short term. But here's the unknown, as I see it. The tariffs will likely produce inflation, which gives Disney two options. They can raise DVC direct pricing in line with inflation (which is more or less what they've done for years, sometimes with a small extra bump): this will reduce contracts sold but it will preserve the premium perception of the product, which may have benefits longterm. Or they can start discounting through incentives to attract larger sales and create a reasonable alternative to the resale market. And here, if I had to take a guess, I think DVD will discount at least one older resort (maybe AKV...possibly Aulani) but will keep high prices on the frontlist to create an image of exclusivity there (Poly, RIV, Disneyland Villas, etc.). My observation: DVD doesn't always react the most reasonably to market conditions and often waits until the moment has passed to announce big incentives (for example, the fire sale on GF was pretty clearly related to pandemic economic conditions but happened after the pandemic was over.)

I remain open to other perspectives.

 

[Lionezz]

I think it will stay the same because the prices on resale are very good today and are lower now than couple of years ago.

 

[Patmcpsu]

I'm pretty sure resale pricing goes down, at least in the short term. But here's the unknown, as I see it. The tariffs will likely produce inflation, which gives Disney two options. They can raise DVC direct pricing in line with inflation (which is more or less what they've done for years, sometimes with a small extra bump): this will reduce contracts sold but it will preserve the premium perception of the product, which may have benefits longterm. Or they can start discounting through incentives to attract larger sales and create a reasonable alternative to the resale market. And here, if I had to take a guess, I think DVD will discount at least one older resort (maybe AKV...possibly Aulani) but will keep high prices on the frontlist to create an image of exclusivity there (Poly, RIV, Disneyland Villas, etc.). My observation: DVD doesn't always react the most reasonably to market conditions and often waits until the moment has passed to announce big incentives (for example, the fire sale on GF was pretty clearly related to pandemic economic conditions but happened after the pandemic was over.)

I remain open to other perspectives.

In the past few years, we've had historically high inflation while resale prices have generally dipped. Adjusted for inflation, resale prices *really* fell during that period.

The biggest inflation risk that I see are maintenance fees. If maintenance fees spike due to higher material costs, that is a bad position for owners. Of course, we won't know the maintenance fee impact until the end of 2025, which wouldn't cause people dumping their contracts until 2026.

The good news is that most resorts recently had their big room renovations. If I was an AKL owner with their upcoming renovation occurring during a trade war, I would be nervous.

 

[Patmcpsu]

Also, the trade war presents risk of Lakeside Lodge becoming an over-budget boondoggle. This would leave Disney with three unsavory options:
1) Wait until economy normalizes, roll into the cabins: This would present risk of customers not buying LL due to shorter deed length.
2) Wait until economy normalizes, *don’t* roll into cabins: This would present risk of the cabins literally never, ever selling because they make no financial sense as standalone units.
3) Proceed as planned and pay whatever cost it takes: This would result in a cost-per-point price to make the project profitable. The problem is that customers may not be willing to pay that price.

 

[Girlstar30]

I am really curious to see what Disney does for the next round of incentives. I can totally see them keeping the prices stable and making us think that they're not going to go down so that people continue to buy and stop waiting for lower prices and then bam summer time fire hits lol

 

[Cfabar1]

I am really curious to see what Disney does for the next round of incentives. I can totally see them keeping the prices stable and making us think that they're not going to go down so that people continue to buy and stop waiting for lower prices and then bam summer time fire hits lol

That’s what they did in 2022 before the VGF sale… It was almost like they had to wait to see how bad it would get.

 

[Girlstar30]

That’s what they did in 2022 before the VGF sale… It was almost like they had to wait to see how bad it would get.

I'm def holding out for something better of I get screwed oh well I doubt it will be by that much lol

 

[Ronaldo17]

I reckon they will stay pretty much the same as they are now.

 

[Brian Noble]

3) Proceed as planned and pay whatever cost it takes: This would result in a cost-per-point price to make the project profitable. The problem is that customers may not be willing to pay that price.

I suspect it will be this, and I don't think it will change the cost-per-point all that much.

I wrote this elsewhere, but the cost-of-construction is probably quite a bit lower than most people think. On top of that, some of that cost is in labor, and at the rate we are going, labor costs are probably not going to rise anything like they have in the past few years. So while materials will probably increase by a healthy chunk, that might be at least partially offset by slower (or no) growth in labor costs.

 

[PlutoNotPlanet]

I think 2042 resale price will go down $3-5pp per year and bounce back if inflation bounce back. Newer resorts would be about the same with some fluctuation (e.g. lower when supply greater than demand in the middle of year).

 

[AstroBlasters]

I suspect it will be this, and I don't think it will change the cost-per-point all that much.

I wrote this elsewhere, but the cost-of-construction is probably quite a bit lower than most people think. On top of that, some of that cost is in labor, and at the rate we are going, labor costs are probably not going to rise anything like they have in the past few years. So while materials will probably increase by a healthy chunk, that might be at least partially offset by slower (or no) growth in labor costs.

I think we may be unpleasantly surprised with how the labor costs of things like construction, food production, etc rise….

 

[DVCsloth]

I vote resale will still rise gradually. The next 6 months to 1 year should start to see improvements in consumer spending. Disney knows that they need to make sure the entire experience is enjoyable and not too overcrowded and complicated.
Otherwise, just rent a hotel room and visit once in a while with no need to commit to a purchase and dues.

 

[AstroBlasters]

I vote resale will still rise gradually. The next 6 months to 1 year should start to see improvements in consumer spending. Disney knows that they need to make sure the entire experience is enjoyable and not too overcrowded and complicated.
Otherwise, just rent a hotel room and visit once in a while with no need to commit to a purchase and dues.

I just don’t see a scenario where consumer spending can be higher in 6m-1 than it is now.

The system has to have time to adjust to the labor shock, corresponding spending shock, and coming price shock that is in the process of unfolding.

 

[Brian Noble]

The next 6 months to 1 year should start to see improvements in consumer spending.

I'm not sure why. Did you see the U-Mich report yesterday?

Gift article:
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/14/...e_code=1.4E4.r4FG.OaIbrycW6dEL&smid=url-share

 

[DVCsloth]

I'm not sure why. Did you see the U-Mich report yesterday?

Gift article:
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/14/...e_code=1.4E4.r4FG.OaIbrycW6dEL&smid=url-share

The cost of labor and construction costs are probably going to stay high, so that would indicate to me that hotel lodging will also stay high. I'm sure it's a fine line between rising prices and scaring people away. Disney continues to invest in DVC and its parks to hopefully improve customer experience. If DVC is still a cost savings for people who like to go regularly it will stay successful and the cost of entry will continue to rise. Time will tell, but I'm in the camp that DVC direct and resale will continue to rise, and the U.S. economy is going to do good as well.