LA Times - "Orange County could leap into yellow tier, with widest reopenings, as soon as next week"

[maichan]

I think they officially increased the capacity from June 15th because the reservation availability for both parks is now wide open.

 

[Malcon10t]

Searched Yankees and Covid .... Guess they are now in quarantine in Tampa Bay.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/yankees-covid-gleyber-torres-8-positive/

 

[AndrewC]

Ah, interesting. J&J isn't really the gold standard for vaccines (about 1/3 chance still catching a mild case) plus those dates are fairly tight. 2 weeks before the vaccine is really effective and then tested 20 days after reaching that "full effective point." Those windows of being infected and testing positive are fairly close to each other, it could be that some or all of them were infected before reaching that post 2 weeks vaccine.... and even if not, they had almost a 30% chance of being infected anyway. The two mRNA versions are much more effective and hopefully will make up the large majority of vaccines in the USA.


Not fantastic, that's for sure, but I'm not certain that would be viewed as a deal breaker yet...

Again, this is about preventing pandemic levels running amongst the population again. If some small percent of people get sick still that's controllable and likely won't shut down daily life. If you have personal concerns, get vaccinated with one of the mRNA ones (is possible) and then still mask and distance.... and honestly, if you're concerned about being sick, don't visit a theme park right now or other large event :-/

 

[WonkaKid]

Link to source?

I’m not the original poster but I was also interested so I found the story here. One possibility suggested is that the seven were infected post-vaccination (April 7) but before they were fully vaccinated (by about April 21). Also, they were all given J&J, which, as many here know, has only been shown to be about 66% effective in preventing infection.

In short, this is a good reminder that we’re not out of the woods entirely yet. It’s still important to be cautions, especially if you’ve been vaccinated but are not yet fully vaccinated.

 

[DLRExpert]

nm

 

[Malcon10t]

I’m not the original poster but I was also interested so I found the story here. One possibility suggested is that the seven were infected post-vaccination (April 7) but before they were fully vaccinated (by about April 21).

Thing is, that is 3 weeks ago, and they are tested every other day, and the positives have been in the last 48 hours.

 

[wideeyedwonder]

They are thinking it might be a new variant breaking thru. 2 are symptomatic, one of them had previously had Covid in November.

Hmmm, so far, from several articles I’ve read, I’ve only seen speculation from someone, that it might be a breakthrough: “CDC Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky called the positive cases among the Yankees a possible instance of new variants but said that the cases don't negate how effective the vaccine is in large populations.”

I don’t take that as “thinking”, I take that as “speculating”, as they are investigating right now. Makes a difference to me.

In short, this is a good reminder that we’re not out of the woods entirely yet. It’s still important to be cautions, especially if you’ve been vaccinated but are not yet fully vaccinated.

Entirely true; however, I would say that the vaccines are not 100% effective, and if what someone is looking for is a 100% guarantee that they won’t get COVID-19, about the only way at this point is to distance yourself from all other people for the rest of your life.

The vaccines are effective at preventing measurable infection in ~95% of the instances for the M and P vaccines; ~66% for the vaccine (J&J) that the NY Yankees were administered.

The articles state “The eight infected Yankees include coaches, staff members and a player.”, but don’t say out of how many coaches, staff, and players were vaccinated. This is important, because if 24 or more were vaccinated and exposed, but only 8 came down with (asymptotic or mild) COVID-19, that comes out to 66% or better effectiveness, right? (Someone correct me if I’m wrong).

Additionally, in the cases where the vaccines do fail to prevent an infection, most/all of those show no symptoms or very mild symptoms (as is the case with The Yankees), and of those, none (??) have been shown to shed enough virus to infect others.

Lastly, the ever cautious CDC is is eliminating almost all mask mandates for those that are fully vaccinated, which says a lot to me.

I am VERY optimistic about the coming weeks. Feel free to call me out if there ends up being a monster NY-Yankees variant that ends up shutting NY down.

 

[wideeyedwonder]

Just an update on the J&J vaccine, as I don’t want people who had that vaccine to think it’s ineffective:

“While J&J’s vaccine has 66.3% effectiveness overall and 74.4% effectiveness in the United States, it has “100% efficacy against hospitalization and death from the virus,” said Dr. Irons. “That's really what we have to focus on.””

Now, IMHO, as far as the Yankees organizations’ post-vaccine infections, we need to know the total number of organization members that were both vaccinated and then exposed, before we panic about yet another “resistant”/breakout variant. If it’s out of 80 people vaccinated and exposed, 8 subsequent mild infections is phenomenal, and not a “break out”. Again, correct me if I’m wrong.

 

[WonkaKid]

Thing is, that is 3 weeks ago, and they are tested every other day, and the positives have been in the last 48 hours.

True but lag times between infection and positive test results are five days, on average. Moreover, rapid tests are more likely to return false negatives early in the infection. Also, given that J&J has only shown 66% efficacy, seven infections is less than the expected infection rate of about 12, presuming that the players have clustered and that seems likely, given that they’re on a team.

 

[WonkaKid]

Feel free to call me out if there ends up being a monster NY-Yankees variant that ends up shutting NY down.

Challenge accepted!! ;-).

 

[califlorican]

I think they officially increased the capacity from June 15th because the reservation availability for both parks is now wide open.

View attachment 574881

I don't think they're able to increase capacity beyond what is allowed by the state right now- not on what might happen in the near future- so it is still probably capped at 25%. More spots were released like this for May a few weeks ago after being booked solid, and again a few days ago with the first few weeks of June (and they went quick! within a day or 2). I don't doubt they will increase capacity when they're able to- once the county gets the go-ahead to drop to yellow tier officially (next week probably) but they can't open at higher capacity until it's allowed by the state/county.

 

[MermaidMommy]

Duplicate post

 

[tippity]

Yeah, I don’t know. California isn’t as “lenient” as other states about this stuff. It’s likely things will change in June, but for now it’s still a state-wide rule.

I might agree, if California enforced any of their so-called policies. However, they don't. It's just a Covid show, when it comes to out of state visitors. The attestations cover Disney legally, and that's the only thing that matters.

DLR can't even manage their reservation system. I arrived at DL yesterday at 9:40am. I was finally through the turn styles at 10:30am. According to the CM's, verifying reservations was what held everything up. I can't imagine them adding Vaccine verification to the admission procedures. They sure as heck aren't verifying CA residency.

 

[longboard55]

We were their last Wednesday and saw a lot of out of state plates, did not do any ID check to verify you were from California, not thinking they are enforcing out of state

 

[mom2rtk]

I'm going to go with what Ken Potrock said and think early 2022.

I figure we will see more science come out in early fall, then negotiations, then approvals, then change. It did take less than 45 days to get the approval for WDW to allow masks for pictures. So it could be a little faster, but since Christmas is a huge visitors from overseas time, they may hold back until the new year.

Or maybe a bit faster.

 

[califlorican]

I might agree, if California enforced any of their so-called policies. However, they don't. It's just a Covid show, when it comes to out of state visitors. The attestations cover Disney legally, and that's the only thing that matters.

DLR can't even manage their reservation system. I arrived at DL yesterday at 9:40am. I was finally through the turn styles at 10:30am. According to the CM's, verifying reservations was what held everything up. I can't imagine them adding Vaccine verification to the admission procedures. They sure as heck aren't verifying CA residency.

I guess we’ll see. I don’t see it happening, but who knows

 

[JWelch62]

Officially yellow tier with a case rate of 1.5/100k. Not sure that means anything at this point, but

 

[midnight star]

Officially yellow tier with a case rate of 1.5/100k. Not sure that means anything at this point, but

DL can up capacity to 35% officially

 

[Malcon10t]

I think they officially increased the capacity from June 15th because the reservation availability for both parks is now wide open.

View attachment 574881

In 5 days it now looks like this....

 

[JWelch62]

DL can up capacity to 35% officially

Yeah they _could_, I'm not sure they will. As noted it looks like they've been slowly increasing the capacity anyway. There may be an upper limit due to personnel issues, or they may have inside info on the June 15th relaxation such they will wait.