LA Times - "Orange County could leap into yellow tier, with widest reopenings, as soon as next week"

[wideeyedwonder]

From LA Times : "According to data released Tuesday, Orange County’s rate of new coronavirus cases — adjusted based on the number of tests performed — dropped to 1.8 per day per 100,000, meaning it could move into the yellow tier, the most lenient category, as soon as next week, if trends hold....Amusement parks and fairs can expand attendance to 35% of capacity, up from 25% in the orange tier. Visitors must either be California residents or fully vaccinated."

Again, no guarantees, but things are looking good...

 

[califlorican]

From everything I’ve heard, Disney doesn’t want to deal with verifying that every visitor has been fully vaccinated, so I don’t think this changes anything other than higher capacity.

 

[DisneyJamieCA]

It is good news (although I think they have to stay in the yellow tier numbers for 2 weeks before moving), but as was mentioned above, Disney has held firm they aren't going to deal with the vaccination thing. It also would make it impossible for anybody under 16 to come because they are unlikely to be fully vaccinated until the entire tier system is dropped on June 15th (and impossible for anybody under 12). I can't imagine them wanting the headache of what that means for families.

 

[frechley]

From a selfish perspective, I am more concerned about when shows return. I would love to go the first week of December, but will only be doing so if shows have been back for a while. Being a CA resident gives me a chance to go with lighter crowds now, but I have a feeling it will be a madhouse for a while as it begins opening more widely. So, I am hoping they open more widely this summer and bring back shows early fall (sounds like WDW is might be laying the groundwork for that). If that happens, then perhaps things are more normal come December.

For those of you from out of state who are eager to get back, here's hoping that happens soon after June 15th!

 

[DLgal]

It is good news (although I think they have to stay in the yellow tier numbers for 2 weeks before moving)

Today's number of 1.8 is based on the last 7 days so if this week goes well, OC will move yo Yellow on 5/18. At that point we will have 2 weeks of yellow numbers.

 

[DisneyJamieCA]

Today's number of 1.8 is based on the last 7 days so if this week goes well, OC will move yo Yellow on 5/18. At that point we will have 2 weeks of yellow numbers.

Ok. I haven’t followed OC closely, just saw “end of month” two other places. Thanks for the clarification.

 

[Katiebird]

Today's number of 1.8 is based on the last 7 days so if this week goes well, OC will move yo Yellow on 5/18. At that point we will have 2 weeks of yellow numbers.

I think it’s actually also a 7 day delay (at least SD is), so if you know the daily numbers you could compare the total week to week. They make adjustments based on testing and health equity so it won’t be exact, but you’d be able to tell if it’s trending up/down/similar.

 

[mom2rtk]

From a selfish perspective, I am more concerned about when shows return. I would love to go the first week of December, but will only be doing so if shows have been back for a while. Being a CA resident gives me a chance to go with lighter crowds now, but I have a feeling it will be a madhouse for a while as it begins opening more widely. So, I am hoping they open more widely this summer and bring back shows early fall (sounds like WDW is might be laying the groundwork for that). If that happens, then perhaps things are more normal come December.

For those of you from out of state who are eager to get back, here's hoping that happens soon after June 15th!

Problem is I bet that's when they increase capacity. I have no interest in going then. Additionally, I don't do well in the heat and had hoped to slip in a trip sometime in May. I guess I'll wait for 2022.

 

[JWelch62]

I think it’s actually also a 7 day delay (at least SD is), so if you know the daily numbers you could compare the total week to week. They make adjustments based on testing and health equity so it won’t be exact, but you’d be able to tell if it’s trending up/down/similar.

Yes, 7 day average on 7 day delay is the state methodology. OC was 1.8 using that metric today. If they hold below 2/100k on the next report OC would move to yellow. It's not the front line daily reported cases. It's the number of cases per day by day of illness onset. If you want to dig into the weeds all the state data is here.

ETA - The period in question for the next report is cases from 5/2 - 5/8.

 

[Katiebird]

It's not the front line daily reported cases. It's the number of cases per day by day of illness onset.

I didn’t realize it was illness onset, that makes a lot more sense then why it’s a 7 day delay (and also why I haven’t been able to recreate the state numbers - though by date reported more or less follows the same track). Thank you!

 

[JWelch62]

I didn’t realize it was illness onset, that makes a lot more sense then why it’s a 7 day delay (and also why I haven’t been able to recreate the state numbers - though by date reported more or less follows the same track). Thank you!

No worries. SD data with full history is here

This chart is the last 3 weeks of data for SD, plus the first 2 days of the next case rate report.

 

[DLgal]

I didn’t realize it was illness onset, that makes a lot more sense then why it’s a 7 day delay (and also why I haven’t been able to recreate the state numbers - though by date reported more or less follows the same track). Thank you!

Yeah, they take the testing date and then count back 3 days and assign the positive case to that day. They call it something like the "date of occurrence." So, a positive test that comes in from May 11 would be retroactively assigned to May 8., for example.

 

[CO2CA]

Wonderful news - you go, Orange County!

 

[DLRExpert]

Disney knows in advance what is coming which is why more reservations and are opening up.

 

[Katiebird]

No worries. SD data with full history is here

This chart is the last 3 weeks of data for SD, plus the first 2 days of the next case rate report.

This is quite the rabbit hole of information, thank you for posting the link! I knew the data must exist but had never truly gone looking for it before.

 

[tippity]

I believe amusement parks, like everyone else in the country, will rely on attestations about vaccinations. So another check box " yes, I've been vaccinated". The only way this will change is if there is some type of vaccine passport.

 

[califlorican]

I believe amusement parks, like everyone else in the country, will rely on attestations about vaccinations. So another check box " yes, I've been vaccinated". The only way this will change is if there is some type of vaccine passport.

Yeah, I don’t know. California isn’t as “lenient” as other states about this stuff. It’s likely things will change in June, but for now it’s still a state-wide rule.

The Universal site says this:
“I’m visiting from out-of-state and am fully vaccinated, what is a valid proof of vaccination?

• When visiting the Park, you must show proof of COVID-19 vaccination and a photo ID at our front gate tickets booths prior to entry.
• Acceptable forms of proof of vaccination are:
  • a vaccination card or photo/digital photo of vaccination card (including name of person vaccinated, type of vaccine provided, and date last dose administered) (See example below)
  • or documentation of vaccination from a healthcare provider

In each case showing that at least two weeks have passed since receipt of the second dose in a 2-dose series (e.g., Pfizer-BioNTech or Moderna) or since receipt of a single-dose vaccine (e.g., Johnson and Johnson [J&J]/Janssen).”

And Sea World site says:
“now out-of-state visitors will be required to show proof of a fully completed COVID-19 vaccine (you are considered fully vaccinated two weeks after your second shot, or two weeks after the one-dose vaccine). Guests may also be asked to present proof of residency upon entry.

Per CDC, the following are acceptable as proof of full vaccination: Vaccination card (which includes name of person vaccinated, type of vaccine provided and date last dose administered) OR a photo of a vaccination card as a separate document OR a photo of the attendee’s vaccine card stored on a phone or electronic device OR documentation of vaccination from a healthcare provider.”

 

[Winnowill]

So am I understanding that out of state people need to be vaccinated in order to get into Universal and Sea World, but Californians don't?

 

[DisneyJamieCA]

So am I understanding that out of state people need to be vaccinated in order to get into Universal and Sea World, but Californians don't?

That is correct.

 

[kristensideaoffun]

I believe amusement parks, like everyone else in the country, will rely on attestations about vaccinations. So another check box " yes, I've been vaccinated". The only way this will change is if there is some type of vaccine passport.

California’s safe reopening blueprint requires that venues/activities requiring vaccinations check for a vaccination card or a document from a health care provider verifying vaccination. Simply relying on attestations is not allowed.