Hurricane Irma?

[smidgy]

Is there a model with time frames those of us who aren't scientists could follow? lol

 

[Amunet]

We are arriving on the 8th and departing on the 11th, also with a MNSSHP ticket for the 10th. Hoping Irma doesn't make landfall at all for selfish reasons but also really don't want more damage/loss of life.
We will be driving and I think I'm most concerned about getting out on the 11th, in case there are evacuations. So I'm tracking it as well

 

[ravenclawtrekkie]

The forecasts are firming up and coming to more agreement. In the next few days, we'll have a good idea of what will end up happening, and a general idea of where and when.

As it stands now, I have plans to attend the Orlando Pride soccer game on Saturday night and nothing's looking like it will ruin that yet. If I was planning to go to the MNSSHP on Sunday night I might be thinking of changing that just in case.

Is there a model with time frames those of us who aren't scientists could follow? lol

The National Hurricane Center - nhc.noaa.gov - does a reasonably good job, IMO, of portraying information in ways laypeople can understand.

 

[sunshine1]

I am due to fly out soon as well from the UK but what can you do if the worst happens? The trip gets cancelled. I have learnt that you dont always get what you want in life. I am more concerned about the news about Kim in North Korea rather than having to cancel a holiday.

 

[OnceUponATime15]

NOAA 5am update has Irma shifting somewhat west on Thursday bringing it much closer to the north east coast of Cuba... the last update I had seen before bed last night had it over the Bahamas at approx the same timeframe.

A US landfall is still very hard to predict accurately at this point. Next NOAA update is at 8am.

 

[zuzu310]

I should not have looked at models this morning. Now I am seriously worried as most models have it hitting the tip of Florida or further up. Why did I even look?

 

[Calee]

Our family is supposed to be driving to wdw on friday and sat, with our first park day on sun. We could move our trip to may if this thing gets ugly.

When is the latest that i can move the trip without major penalty.

 

[minniegirl19]

The 8am update makes it look like a Florida landfall is inevitable ugh

 

[Zippa D Doodah]

I'm not a meteorologist nor did I stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night, but there are a couple of factors that can possibly maybe even probably still change the track of Irma and steer it away from Florida or hopefully OTS. The latest forecast track rightfully factors in a huge cold weather trough that dips well into the south, thus pushing Irma south and west. There is some disagreement among experts and models about that trough, its strength and its timing. If it is not as strong as expected then that opens that gate for Irma to make that northward curve, hopefully in time to miss landfall in the US altogether. Let's all cross our fingers and toes hoping that this happens.This is just a little ray of hope.

Anyone going to or living in Florida this week should take forecasts seriously. Even a miss could result in a sloppy and potentially dangerous situation pretty much anywhere along the east coast at this point. For example, I was at WDW when Sandy came in and curved parallel to the Florida coast. It never made landfall in Florida but it made things wet and messy.

 

[MommaBerd]

@Zippa D Doodah - Thanks for giving us some hope!

 

[Jennasis]

I don't particularly care what the storm does. I'm going. Just annoyed we will have to rearrange our Discovery Cove day from monday to maybe Wednesday. Hopefully the other parks we planned to do won't have to be closed (Bush Gardens and Sea World).

 

[Draydey]

With us flying back home next Monday is it possible we can get in and out before this thing possibly hits ?

 

[sunshine1]

I don't particularly care what the storm does. I'm going. Just annoyed we will have to rearrange our Discovery Cove day from monday to maybe Wednesday. Hopefully the other parks we planned to do won't have to be closed (Bush Gardens and Sea World).

What happens to the whales and dolphins in this weather? Does it effect them if a hurricane does come?

 

[DisneyDeb83]

With us flying back home next Monday is it possible we can get in and out before this thing possibly hits ?

Anything is possible. As others have said, it's too soon to predict what will happen. We are flying in Saturday night so we should be able to get in. Once we are there, we will deal with whatever comes.

Will I be annoyed if it messes with our MNSSHP on the 12th, sure! But I'm more concerned with people getting hurt or losing their homes.

 

[GPC0321]

I'm not a meteorologist nor did I stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night, but there are a couple of factors that can possibly maybe even probably still change the track of Irma and steer it away from Florida or hopefully OTS. The latest forecast track rightfully factors in a huge cold weather trough that dips well into the south, thus pushing Irma south and west. There is some disagreement among experts and models about that trough, its strength and its timing. If it is not as strong as expected then that opens that gate for Irma to make that northward curve, hopefully in time to miss landfall in the US altogether. Let's all cross our fingers and toes hoping that this happens.This is just a little ray of hope.

Anyone going to or living in Florida this week should take forecasts seriously. Even a miss could result in a sloppy and potentially dangerous situation pretty much anywhere along the east coast at this point. For example, I was at WDW when Sandy came in and curved parallel to the Florida coast. It never made landfall in Florida but it made things wet and messy.

It's looking less and less likely that this thing will curve back out to sea. I hate to see anyone anywhere have to deal with Irma, as she looks extremely dangerous. Selfishly, because I'm in eastern NC, I really don't want to see her make landfall here. I also don't want to see areas still dealing with devastation from Harvey hit again. And of course I hate thinking of Florida getting hit as well.

At this point, I'm just hoping something comes along that will slow the strengthening and possibly reverse it so that the storm loses some of its punch. We've seen them come barreling up as Cat 4's before, only to lose power just before making landfall as 2's or even 1's.

Praying for the folks down in the islands. It looks like she's going to pummel them.

 

[anniemae]

I feel for all of you traveling soon. We were in FL a couple of years ago in Aug when a hurricane was bearing down on FL. It was so stressful deciding if we should stay or leave. Orlando was slated to take a direct hit, a state of emergency was issued and panic ensued. Turns out it broke apart and we just got a brief light rain storm. Many people canceled trips once the state of emergency was issued. I remember the stress of watching the news and not knowing if we should try to fly out early or not. I didn't want to get stuck in FL.

I hope Irma turns out to be nothing or that it turns out to sea. I would advise everyone not to stress out about it, but I know it's not possible for those traveling soon or living in a potential path. I was glued to the forecasts.

 

[hertamaniac]

It looks like we are now in the direct target zone (FL). What concerns me is that it will "shoot the gap" and not traverse over any high mountain islands to disrupt it's intensity.

 

[Disneylvr]

I am supposed to fly in the morning of the 9th for a short 4 night, solo trip celebrating my 50th birthday and flying home early morning on the 13th. I have a ticket for MNSSHP on the 10th. I am watching the forecast closely and plan to make a travel decision on Wednesday. While I will be disappointed if my trip is cancelled, my biggest concern will be for those in the path of this storm.

 

[erinch]

If Irma does go out to sea, sounds like you all should have a big DISMEET at the Sunday MNSSHP. There are a big boatload of you attending.

 

[FrenchGirl]

Flying in the 8th until the 22nd (staying off site). My biggest concern is getting a hold of some drinking water for our family of six as I hear it's already flying off the shelves in anticipation.