Hurricane Irma?

[TinkerBelle_325]

Okay, well, let me just ask this...

What do you all think about when we can look at the models/forecasts and feel comfortable that what they are showing is true? We are scheduled to drive down next Sunday and Monday (splitting over two days) and it's not that easy to just change everything on 24 hours notice.

Thanks.

Hi Tom,

I'm flying in on the morning of Sept 11th. The NHC sent the Hurricane Hunter plane in for the first time today. That data will help make the models more accurate and reliable. They just issued Hurricane Watches for some of the Antilles at the 5pm update. Irma is slated to pass by those Islands between 2pm Tuesday and 2pm Wednesday. Using that as a benchmark you'll have a better idea 48 hours ahead of Hurricane Watches/Warnings being issued. The generally accepted timing for Irma closing in on the SE US (IF SHE DOES AT ALL) is sometime next weekend. So theoretically, Thursday Sept 9th at the earliest. Just keep an eye on the NHC updates. They occur daily at 5am, 11am, 5pm, 11pm.

 

[BK2014]

This headline from the Washington Post is the best Hurricane Irma prediction I have seen yet: "
Hurricane Irma could strike U.S. East Coast by next weekend, or it could curve out to sea"

 

[TinkerBelle_325]

My biggest issue is I am flying into MCO on Friday and supposed to fly out of MCO early on 9/11 when the worst of it is supposed to hit. I will have to make a call on Wednesday whether to cancel my trip or not.

Trust me, I get how frustrating the wait is. I'm supposed to fly IN on the 11th. As far as the morning of the 11th being the worst of it - even that isn't set. The timing of the storm is still an estimate just as much as the track. I'd say Tues/Wed updates will give a better idea. So sorry if you have to cancel your trip. Along with everyone on this thread I'm still crossing my fingers that it goes out to sea.

 

[TinkerBelle_325]

This headline from the Washington Post is the best Hurricane Irma prediction I have seen yet: "
Hurricane Irma could strike U.S. East Coast by next weekend, or it could curve out to sea"

One of the most reliable hurricane models, the EURO, has out to sea as a possible course today. It really still is a possibility.

 

[Southernmiss]

Mike's weather page on Facebook is a good storm tracking resource.

As frustrating as it is for vacationers, storm prediction is even more frustrating for residents who could be affected. Trust me.

We have a good week before anyone knows for sure.

August/September is height of hurricane season. Vacationing in areas that get hurricanes is a gamble this time of year.

 

[Polydweller]

I remember you and I having completely different experiences when in Epcot last year in regards to communication about the park closing, you said that announcements were made over the loud speaker and I said nothing was said, or at least I didn't hear anything specifically that I was inside a building and did not hear em.

With that said I expect you had again a completely different experience as staff did not say anything to us because they couldn't, being at a Value or Moderate your rooms led outside so you were stuck in your room at a Deluxe you were free to move within the corridors so staff could tell you things at will.

So I'm again going to assume that you just had a better phone cause the hotel phones I had the light didn't light up the room when it was flashing, you had to be looking at it to see it was on during the day.

So again, any and all ways to communicate would have been better than just one. Send the message out over the TV (via a scroll and/or a dedicated channel) and via voicemail, but if your gonna do it via voicemail make the damn phone ring!

Yep, they did in Epcot. We were having lunch in Katsura Grill when we heard two CMs saying that they were being told about an early closing. About 5-10 minutes later the announcement was made via the loud speakers that the park would be closing and all shops and rides would close promptly. We left shortly after but heard it once more before getting to the front gate.

I would agree with you about multiple methods of communication in the case of emergency messages. But during Matthew there were no emergency messages and no need for them, just informational messages. One really doesn't want to alarm people when you don't have to and there was no need in this case.

 

[cattrix]

Hang in there everyone, we need more info before we react to the weather!

 

[Tinkerbell2017]

The track has changed quite a bit. I'm from CT and I arrive on the 16th. I was a bit worried it would come up the east coast before I could fly out. I think I'm ok now but I'm worried for you all arriving earlier. Hopefully it will just graze the coast, good luck!

 

[zuzu310]

We fly in early on 9/9. I am a worrywart to begin with, and I have been obsessively checking the models for Irma. I am hoping for more accurate info by mid-week. It is SO hard to get excited for vacation when that bad girl is looming in the ocean. I know the other OCD people in this group understand what I mean.

 

[Draydey]

We fly in 9/7 - 9/11 our trip is a very short trip I hope this hurricane doesn't affect us at all.!!

 

[Tinkerbell2017]

We fly in 9/7 - 9/11 our trip is a very short trip I hope this hurricane doesn't affect us at all.!!

With any luck you'll be working around the problem.

 

[Tonyz]

I am not a scaredy person but looking at the models it almost exclusively shows that Irma is going to eat up all of middle to northern Florida at this point. I understand wishful thinking but you cant be daft when it comes to your safety.

There actually hasn't been a reliable system that has it hitting Orlando (at least having Orlando anywhere near the eye). Anything could happen but right now it's still not unreasonable to think that it totally misses us.

 

[Tonyz]

I've actually gotten to a point where I'm going to stop looking at anything but the NHC forecasts and advisories. At this exact moment, all trips coming up in the next 5-10 days are perfectly fine. No one knows where Irma will go. Heck they can't even say with confidence that she will hit the Antilles or PR. They sent the first Hurricane Hunter plane into the storm today. That will provide better data and in turn will produce better models in the coming days.

I would say all trips within the next six days are perfectly fine. Sunday and Monday are the spots where it could get messy (maybe very late Saturday as well).

 

[scrapquitler]

Our trip is from the 5th to the 12th, with MNSSHP on Sunday. I'm watching and wondering what will happen, but I have no intentions of changing my plans. DH and I have discussed lots of scenarios, and it looks like our best bet is to go, keep an eye on the weather and just carry on. I've got it in my head that there's a real possibility that our flight home on Tuesday might be affected, and well, if it is, it is. We'll just hang around extra days and reschedule our flight home if need be. I guess if it comes to that, I'll hope that WDW will help me find another room somewhere.
I packed today for this trip, and I threw a couple flashlights and extra batteries in my bag, I also packed a dice game and a deck of cards in case we are stuck in the room, and I'm going to find a couple more books to add to my kindle in case we are confined to our room for a day or two. And I've packed a few extra snacks, and will buy a few extra things from the food court a couple days before the storm might potentially arrive, just in case. At worst, we'll survive on Pop Tarts, apples, goldfish and peanut butter crackers for a day or two.

This could make for a very memorable trip, but hey, it's all good.

 

[disneycountrygirl]

Scrapquitler, thanks for sharing your tips. We will use some of them (ie extra books!). We weren't planning on renting a car, but are now contemplating it to be prudent just in case we have to bail or transport to another hotel at some point. Our trip is the 8th-16th so we are SQUAT in the MIDDLE of it. We won't really know anything accurate until after we are there, and what a crappy situation if it turns worst case scenario and we have no ability to get ourselves out of it.

 

[5forDis]

We fly in early on 9/9. I am a worrywart to begin with, and I have been obsessively checking the models for Irma. I am hoping for more accurate info by mid-week. It is SO hard to get excited for vacation when that bad girl is looming in the ocean. I know the other OCD people in this group understand what I mean.

I wasn't overly concerned about this storm but now I am starting to be....We are also going to the Halloween Party on Sunday 9/10 & our flight arrives Saturday night (9/9). This is a short trip for us (Sat night until Wed morning). Great timing

 

[Neverbeast]

I wasn't overly concerned about this storm but now I am starting to be.... Great timing

SAME!
DH has to leave our trip on that Wed. I wouldn't really care about the weather but if Sunday and Monday are stormed out, that's more than half his part of the trip.

 

[Tonyz]

There actually hasn't been a reliable system that has it hitting Orlando (at least having Orlando anywhere near the eye). Anything could happen but right now it's still not unreasonable to think that it totally misses us.

Well I just got proven wrong like 5 minutes after this! The newest model unfortunately has this thing rolling over Florida. It starts hitting the southern tip Sunday night, still not really affecting Orlando yet (even the most outer ring of it barely touches Orlando at 8:00 PM). But from Sunday night until Tuesday it gets pretty rough.

Obviously this is only one model and a week in advance. It can be 100% accurate or it can be laughably wrong. But Sunday through Tuesday is still definitely in play. Keep an eye out.

 

[trevelbond]

Well I just got proven wrong like 5 minutes after this! The newest model unfortunately has this thing rolling over Florida. It starts hitting the southern tip Sunday night, still not really affecting Orlando yet (even the most outer ring of it barely touches Orlando at 8:00 PM). But from Sunday night until Tuesday it gets pretty rough.

Obviously this is only one model and a week in advance. It can be 100% accurate or it can be laughably wrong. But Sunday through Tuesday is still definitely in play. Keep an eye out.

Where did you find one that says Sunday night? I'm flying in on Saturday (arriving 2:30 pm) and if I can get by without changing my flights I'd be kind of relieved.

Considering trying to make it out there Friday otherwise.

 

[Tonyz]

Where did you find one that says Sunday night? I'm flying in on Saturday (arriving 2:30 pm) and if I can get by without changing my flights I'd be kind of relieved.

Considering trying to make it out there Friday otherwise.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/ana..._mslp&runtime=2017090400&fh=-12&xpos=0&ypos=0

The first ring starts to hit Orlando around 8 PM. So who knows even with this mess the Halloween party that night could still happen.

I don't think there's any worry (at least right now) about getting into Orlando Saturday afternoon.