easywdw crowd calendars?

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Easywdw is a web site which, though available to users at no charge, accepts advertising and thus is a commercial endeavor. It shouldn't get a free pass from criticism just from participation here, and let's be fair, complaints about the approach to humor on easywdw have been made here before.
I don't believe anyone said he should get a free pass from criticism. But rather, if you toss an insult at another member of this board, expect a response. I happen to agree with that. I don't have a website, but when I was called an insulting name here by another poster, of course I responded.
 
I really appreciate Josh's input to this thread. Especially this:

I think moving forward there will be more of a focus on how to go about your day rather than taking so much time focusing on which day you visit.

Absolutely. I have put my focus into just maximizing my day to day touring and away from finding the perfect week, day, crowd level etc....

I am going in November, and have had a hell of a time making plans like I used to. I go less often than a lot of folks here, so every time I go, I feel like there is some significant change in how I have to plan, but this time I am more clueless than ever. I have no idea if Jersey week is going to be mobbed or only moderately crowded. I am still waiting on dessert parties, ride refurb info and AK nighttime info. Who knows what WDW will throw at us next?

This summer I think was dead because of a combination of Zika fears, not a lot new in the parks, and cost increases finally got too much for a lot of people to handle. I am wondering if fall will be mobbed because of people delaying their summer trips. The lack of late fall discounts seems to indicate that it will be fairly crowded, but only time will tell.
 
Easywdw is a web site which, though available to users at no charge, accepts advertising and thus is a commercial endeavor. It shouldn't get a free pass from criticism just from participation here, and let's be fair, complaints about the approach to humor on easywdw have been made here before.

I did not say anyone should deserve a pass. I did say that I think that it is a good idea to know your audience before tossing an insult on a post, especially given the person who did this was not happy he got a negative response from his target.

I have posted negative feedback about Tour Guide Mike when I used that service, but I was not rude. I did not know that he was on the boards, but to be honest, I was glad that I was not nasty once I found out. I understand that Easywdw is a commercial endeavor but I try to remember that behins these websites sit real people.
 
This is what I find so depressing. We used to aim for slow times to visit WDW. Now there are no slow times since everyday is a 7.

Josh, you mention South America as having an impact on attendance. Maybe this is wishful thinking, but do you think the amount of planning created by MDE has also caused a decrease in attendance?


I can't answer for Josh, but I think that relatively few people care one way or another abaout MDE. I think that the lower attendance this summer was due to a variety of concerns, not the least of which was cost and the foreign visitors who stayed away.

Disney offered some very good deals this summer, incentives that if I would ever go again in the blistering heat and humidity that calls Disney its home, I would have taken advantage of.

I think that there is still a notion that Fall is a slow season, so when you combine that with Food and Wine, which brings a lot of folks in, you have busy parks. I also think that they booked a lot of early rooms with the bounce back, which for me was 30% off deluxe.
 
I really appreciate Josh's input to this thread. Especially this:



Absolutely. I have put my focus into just maximizing my day to day touring and away from finding the perfect week, day, crowd level etc....

I am going in November, and have had a hell of a time making plans like I used to. I go less often than a lot of folks here, so every time I go, I feel like there is some significant change in how I have to plan, but this time I am more clueless than ever. I have no idea if Jersey week is going to be mobbed or only moderately crowded. I am still waiting on dessert parties, ride refurb info and AK nighttime info. Who knows what WDW will throw at us next?

This summer I think was dead because of a combination of Zika fears, not a lot new in the parks, and cost increases finally got too much for a lot of people to handle. I am wondering if fall will be mobbed because of people delaying their summer trips. The lack of late fall discounts seems to indicate that it will be fairly crowded, but only time will tell.
We are going the same time period, nov4-11 and I ink it's going to be pretty slammed. Hopefully I'm wrong! Most resorts are sold out and I personally have never seen that 2 months out from a trip. Rack rate at CR---ugh.
 
I'd lay money Disney is holding off posting final schedules until people have started scheduling FPs so they can see where they can cut staff. They know most people will not change their FPs once they make them.

That has always been a critical component of MM+.
 
I see easyWDW and Touring Plans as two sides of the same coin. Just as there are both theoretical and empirical physicists, macro- and micro-economics, and quantitative and qualitative methods, there are multiple ways to approach crowd prediction.

Touring Plans uses a very quantitative approach. They rely heavily on things that can be measured or stated precisely and for which they have past data. This means that at times they're consciously excluding data that they can't quantify. Building statistical models is very difficult, and unlike things such as election polling, they don't have the resources of a organization such as Gallup, and they're trying to predict things six months out. Statistical models have the potential for being very reliable for things like elections or weather forecasting, but no one expects them to work that far in advance. Plus, TP is missing (I assume) some extremely useful data, such as the rate of bookings and ticket sales, data that Disney has access to. They might infer it from things like ADR availability, but that's tricky and difficult. Finally, they're really predicting just one aspect of crowds, and that's wait times for rides. That's important, but it excludes things like meet and greet times, QS restaurant times, and the overall feel of crowds for parades and such. I think they err in calling their predictions a crowd calendar instead of a ride wait calendar. But they're clearly not making things up. To whatever extent they're wrong (and I don't have the data to judge any of these crowd sides), the most that could be said is that their approach isn't successful or their models are wrong. Accusing them of making things up, in the absence of any evidence that they're lying about their methods, is uncalled for.

Easywdw and other sites use a very qualitative approach, on more of a macro level than micro. They look at the issues that may influence decisions, correlate them (informally, but still correctly) against reported results, and reason out good conclusions. They can more easily incorporate events such as ROL being announced, and then deferred, into their predictions. Historically, they've relied on the premise that only a small percentage actually follow their recommendations (so does TP), but in this day of social media, I don't know that the premise is still true. One could claim that what they're doing is educated guessing (thus making the "making things up" attribution more literally accurate), but that would be an injustice if perceived as a criticism. Sometimes educated guesses are not only correct, but they're also the most reasonable way to make predictions.

If any one of these sites, or an independent party, were to do a sound comparative analysis of the reliability of their predictions, that would be good. But it's not possible as long as the only result data we have are the reports on social media or the personal judgments of their own employees. In the absence of such an analysis, it's best that they avoid throwing any stones at each other, as their houses are all made of glass.
 
I'd lay money Disney is holding off posting final schedules until people have started scheduling FPs so they can see where they can cut staff. They know most people will not change their FPs once they make them.

That has always been a critical component of MM+.
Both cut staff and increase staff. And my reaction is "Of course". That's where so much of modern quantitative management is at these days. Part of the way places like Wal-Mart, Costco, and Target control their expenses is by having very tight control on how much inventory they have at any given time. Disney merchandising tries to do the same thing (their goal is to sell out of MNSSHP merchandise at the last party), but for the parks, they can't manage physical things, just the staffing.

Why wouldn't they be doing all they can with all the data they have to decide whether to run one or both Space Mountain tracks? And the result is going to be to make the lines at the long end of tolerable to the majority of guests.
 
Let's play nice here kids or the mods will close the thread!! The stone thrower in this case who obviously wasn't ever a fan of Josh's site should just quietly move on to another topic somewhere. Most of us on this thread seem to have been fans of his crowd calendars - which as a reminder was what this thread was started about. I was looking to see if he had any intentions of updating or continuing with them. It wasn't an invitation for easywdw haters to start complaining about his personal sense of humor.

Moving on - I spent some time over last weekend trying to make my own calendar for January. HAHAHAHAHA! :rotfl2: What a pain in the rear! :badpc: I now miss Josh's input more than ever!!
 
Both cut staff and increase staff. And my reaction is "Of course". That's where so much of modern quantitative management is at these days. Part of the way places like Wal-Mart, Costco, and Target control their expenses is by having very tight control on how much inventory they have at any given time. Disney merchandising tries to do the same thing (their goal is to sell out of MNSSHP merchandise at the last party), but for the parks, they can't manage physical things, just the staffing.

Why wouldn't they be doing all they can with all the data they have to decide whether to run one or both Space Mountain tracks? And the result is going to be to make the lines at the long end of tolerable to the majority of guests.


Because it does their customers a huge disservice to ask them to schedule their days first, without all the information, so they can react on the back end.
 
Did you seriously just give me a "nu uh, you are!"? Thank you for proving my point Josh. Grow up.
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Both cut staff and increase staff. And my reaction is "Of course". That's where so much of modern quantitative management is at these days. Part of the way places like Wal-Mart, Costco, and Target control their expenses is by having very tight control on how much inventory they have at any given time. Disney merchandising tries to do the same thing (their goal is to sell out of MNSSHP merchandise at the last party), but for the parks, they can't manage physical things, just the staffing.

Why wouldn't they be doing all they can with all the data they have to decide whether to run one or both Space Mountain tracks? And the result is going to be to make the lines at the long end of tolerable to the majority of guests.
I wouldn't have a problem with this if I wasn't making ADR's at 120 days out and making FP+ ride reservations at 30-60 days out. Disney wants the guests to plan ahead, but Disney is not releasing park hours or entertainment schedules until the last minute.

Before anyone responds with, " Disney Is a Business" I am aware of that. But it seems to me that their current business model is all about maximizing profits an to heck with their guests. It's great in the short term, but I don't think it can last. I'm sorry, but when I'm spending thousands on a vacation, I do expect the place that's receiving my disposable income to be accommodating.
 
Easywdw is a web site which, though available to users at no charge, accepts advertising and thus is a commercial endeavor. It shouldn't get a free pass from criticism just from participation here, and let's be fair, complaints about the approach to humor on easywdw have been made here before.

Easywdw is a website. Josh is a person. There is a difference. It's one thing if someone is to criticize a website because data is incorrect, unhelpful, etc., but to come on a message board and complain about the tone of another website? What's the point of that? If you don't like the website, don't read it, and don't complain about how you don't appreciate the author's sense of humor on some unrelated message board (of which said author is a known member).
 
I wouldn't have a problem with this if I wasn't making ADR's at 120 days out and making FP+ ride reservations at 30-60 days out. Disney wants the guests to plan ahead, but Disney is not releasing park hours or entertainment schedules until the last minute.

Before anyone responds with, " Disney Is a Business" I am aware of that. But it seems to me that their current business model is all about maximizing profits an to heck with their guests. It's great in the short term, but I don't think it can last. I'm sorry, but when I'm spending thousands on a vacation, I do expect the place that's receiving my disposable income to be accommodating.

This is my biggest issue with how they're doing things now. I'm tired of being expected to plan where I'm eating and when and what park so far ahead yet they seem like they could give a rats behind about letting me make informed decisions. We prefer to eat later rather than earlier but if park hours aren't extended until 2 weeks out we have to plan meals earlier than we would like. Or maybe we pick a park for the evening that's open later than what AK is showing (currently 5:00) for all of January. We would LIKE to see ROL (which I'm assuming should be running by then) but we don't know what night to pick because we don't know what the hours will be or if it will be every night. This means I will likely waste time planning an ADR somewhere plus FP+ somewhere in another park and then 2 weeks out we're scrambling to switch things around. Likely we will eat CS rather than TS if we have to cancel things last minute. We usually plan our FP+ at our afternoon / evening park. With AK scheduled to close at 5:00 we're not planning afternoon or evening time there (which I know it will likely get extended to 7:00 or 8:00 but until it actually IS I'm not planning to go). The whole system now just creates extra work. You have to scour the boards & MDE for changes to know if something's changed then you have to cancel & rearrange things last minute. It's very frustrating and wastes a ton of time.
 
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I love the easywdw site, and one reason is the humor Josh brings to the reading that's necessary for all of our planning. But I haven't seen any other site that gives so many details. Josh includes pictures of everything, and many of them have been marked with red arrows, names, and directions. Many people can say that the crowds at 11:00 are going to be heavier than the crowds at 9:30. But Josh shows the pictures of what the crowds look like at the different time periods. Others can tell you to turn left at the ------- attraction, but Josh shows the picture of that ------- attraction, and then a red arrow showing you where to turn. This is very valuable. Josh doesn't leave the reader trying to imagine what that certain area looks like............he shows them.

When restaurants are reviewed, we see pictures of the menus, as well as the food, and Josh describes every bit of it.......from the taste to the quantity and quality.

Having said all of this, I am disappointed that we're not learning more from Josh on what to expect on our upcoming Oct trip. I've become so dependent on him. I understand though that his website can't give recommendations on the unknown. And for that, I blame Disney. This is the first trip that we're not going to go to a certain park on a recommended day, but rather just trying to plan what to do within the park based on what we already know. But there are still so many unknowns. Will AK have night time entertainment? It's hard to do the FP+'s for night time attractions when we don't know if there will be a night time show that we will want to attend. And so on...... Luckily, our HS nights turned out to be nights that the SW fireworks will be.

Come on Disney. You want us to book our meals at 180 days. Book our FP's at 60 days. And then keep us chained to the internet to find out when the final details can be placed. This will probably be our last family trip to WDW for a long time. Higher prices, longer waits due to decreased staffing, less attractions. The one thing we enjoy in all of this planning is Josh's humor.
 
I have posted negative feedback about Tour Guide Mike when I used that service, but I was not rude. I did not know that he was on the boards, but to be honest, I was glad that I was not nasty once I found out. I understand that Easywdw is a commercial endeavor but I try to remember that behins these websites sit real people.
This is why my personal rule of thumb is that, regardless to whether it's an Internet posting or an e-mail or an IM, when I talk about someone I assume that whatever I say will eventually either be read by that person or reach them second-hand. So I try and make sure that whatever I say sticks to the facts and is as defensible as possible.
 
Not nearly as much as yours does.

I am not sure how to move forward with the crowd calendars. A lot of the patterns that we enjoyed prior to FastPass+ don't hold true anymore. Simply avoiding extra magic hours or not going to Magic Kingdom on a Monday "because it's always the most crowded" isn't true. Relying on school calendars won't get you very far as more and more people are using alternative forms of education or the schools are going to year-round schedules. And now with Disney cutting staffing so much on days that it is expecting to be "less crowded" you can reasonably expect to wait longer when there are fewer people in the park. That's particularly true with Disney distributing the same number of FP+ whether one side or both sides of Primeval Whirl are operating or there are 12 trucks on the road on Kilimanjaro Safaris or eight. And going by previous years wait times/attendance patterns doesn't seem to be a viable alternative either. Nobody predicted the summer would be this soft or late April would be so busy.

Like I said in that quoted post, easywdw used to largely rely on what Disney was expecting. It was why I provided more accurate information than any of the other sites. But since Disney is no longer offering guidance more than 2 to 4 weeks out, I can't tell you how busy next February is going to be. And I am not sure how you would. I can tell you how busy last year was and how long waits were at every attraction in 5-minute increments, but that has proved to be largely irrelevant.

And even now heading into the fall with Mickey's Halloween Party, I am not sure if the advice to go to Magic Kingdom on a Mickey's party date is going to be better advice than going on a longer day assuming you can take advantage of the very early or very late hours. I think you would be able to get more done from 8am-12pm and 8pm-1am on a Saturday than you could hope to accomplish from 9am-7pm on a Party Tuesday. Those hours are so short and so few FastPass+ are distributed that wait times are going to be high with so little capacity given to standby. It's just going to be a matter of how many FP+ you can pick up later in the day as people cancel.

And Disney not updating their nighttime entertainment schedule doesn't help things. They just released when and how often the Star Wars fireworks would be in October this weekend. It's already September obviously. So if you were planning on which days to go to Hollywood Studios 60 days in advance and wanted to see the nighttime entertainment, you may well need to change your entire schedule around if you want to see the fireworks as they won't be offered on Sundays, Tuesdays, and Thursdays. And since we can expect those days to be a little less crowded than days that do offer nighttime entertainment and a later close, the crowd calendar would need to be changed somewhat significantly based on some pretty late breaking changes.

But I will see if something workable is possible. At the moment, my advice would be have a sound plan and visit the parks on the days that you can execute an efficient touring plan. Stay late if you can.

I feel like you are taking everything I ever thought I knew about visiting Disney and throwing it out the window.
 
I have posted negative feedback about Tour Guide Mike when I used that service, but I was not rude. I did not know that he was on the boards, but to be honest, I was glad that I was not nasty once I found out. I understand that Easywdw is a commercial endeavor but I try to remember that behins these websites sit real people.
Can't help but share my two cents. I generally agree 110% about disagreeing without being disagreeable, etc, etc, etc! :thumbsup2

However... PP's post was not even in the neighborhood of how rude Josh often gets with people on Twitter. Talk about "if you dish it out, you should be willing to take it" ... :goodvibes
 
This is why my personal rule of thumb is that, regardless to whether it's an Internet posting or an e-mail or an IM, when I talk about someone I assume that whatever I say will eventually either be read by that person or reach them second-hand. So I try and make sure that whatever I say sticks to the facts and is as defensible as possible.
This. And I also don't ever assume that a screen name instead of my real name makes me anonymous online. No one is ever truly anonymous on the web. It would serve us all well to act like it.
 
Let's play nice here kids or the mods will close the thread!! The stone thrower in this case who obviously wasn't ever a fan of Josh's site should just quietly move on to another topic somewhere. Most of us on this thread seem to have been fans of his crowd calendars - which as a reminder was what this thread was started about. I was looking to see if he had any intentions of updating or continuing with them. It wasn't an invitation for easywdw haters to start complaining about his personal sense of humor.

Moving on - I spent some time over last weekend trying to make my own calendar for January. HAHAHAHAHA! :rotfl2: What a pain in the rear! :badpc: I now miss Josh's input more than ever!!
So only fans need post? Come on now... :) That PP was commenting on Josh's own post about the calendars, and his dig at TP. Fair game to comment on that, no?
 
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