easywdw crowd calendars?

[bigmac5]

I am also going in January and have been watching for his calendar. he doesn't even have November 2016 out...Someone question this and he said that disney isn't giving enough info to make putting one out worthwhile yet. I think he is waiting for info on ROL and Star Wars fireworks etc. must be frustrating for him too I think some star Wars info came out today.

 

[phillymummer]

I appreciate the fact that Josh is not trying to fake it like the other sites are. No one has a clue any longer with the way Disney is doing things now.

THIS! I think it is better to not do a calendar at all rather than take guesses and have people pissed bc the recommendations were off. Josh has a great repuation. Why ruin it bc Disney does not want to release info in a timely manner?

Ignore the haters Josh. There are many of use that appreciate your style.

 

[senadler]

And as usual, easywdw can't make a post without a snarky comment about Touring Plans. I will literally use anyone else than this guy for WDW info. Sure, he may be right sometimes, but his attitude sucks.

I think this is a matter of taste. I absolutely look forward to Josh's updates, and if you follow his posts, at least half of his snarky comments are about himself and his website. Personally I think he is very entertaining while providing good information. I agree with what he posted, other than following the basic strategy of avoiding EMH and not starting with the MK early in the week, there is not a lot to go by when Disney is changing hours so far down the road. We are currently planning a trip for March, and I am just following what I would have done last year at the same time assuming that Disney will eventually change the hours.

 

[kappyfamily]

Just wanted to say a quick thanks Josh, you da bomb.

 

[_auroraborealis_]

Really, given how much complaining people are doing on DIS (ADRs at 180, FP+ at 60, but entertainment release... 30 days out?), why does everyone think that anyone predicting crowds can be at all accurate with the similar lack of information? None of the big sites have a magic pipeline that tell them "sure, we haven't announced fireworks times 6 months out, but we'll only be doing the big HS nighttime fireworks 3x/week in 6 months?" (I'm not so sure DISNEY know what they're doing 3 months out any more, with Star Wars and Rumors of Maybe.)

Any prediction more than 30 days out at this point is pure spitball. Go when it works for your family. Make a solid touring plan of what you must do. Make ADRs and FP. Hope for the best.

 

[notfrostyjosh]

I'm not sure Disney knows what to expect. They are not waiting until the last minute to extend hours and add entertainment because it's necessarily what they want to do. For June, they moved Magic Kingdom's opening to 8am throughout the month with only like four days lead time. And then nobody showed up. Late April was nuts and they were still cutting back hours and staffing hard. Then they ramped things up and attendance went down significantly. They have not caught on to the fact that summer crowds have been easing for the last couple of years and I don't think anybody saw this summer happening. I've been talking about South America trending down for about a year now, but I would not have predicted that June/July/August would have been so weak. It was dead.

And even now there are mixed signals heading into the fall. The Disney resorts are near 100% capacity for much of the next two months, but at the same time they are offering unprecedented discounts to annual passholders on 1-day tickets and extending resident discounts. It "feels" like everybody and their mother is going in October, but the attendance estimates that are out there are tepid.

But I'm not sure how to predict crowds further down the line with any amount of accuracy given Disney is offering virtually nothing, the past is no indication of the future, and so much is still up in the air. And the weather can play a major role too. I think moving forward there will be more of a focus on how to go about your day rather than taking so much time focusing on which day you visit. Realistically, with an intelligent plan your day should go similarly regardless of when you visit. 30 days out I have a very good idea about what we're looking at. The problem is though that you probably already have two days at Epcot locked in with Frozen FP+. Maybe you want to see the Star Wars fireworks and they are only scheduled on three nights the week you are visiting. Animal Kingdom's schedule may be variable. And that's one of the reasons why I'm trying to come up with something that is more realistically viable for the average guest. I don't think there's any use in freaking people out by telling them that they're now going to the "worst" park or raising crowd level estimations etc. But we also want to be realistically prepared for what to expect.

 

[Princess Mulan]

Thank you, Josh, for your informative and detailed explanations in this thread! You're the best!

 

[vinotinto]

He's stopped doing them for now. He did a post on it, but he said this on his forums the other day, which I think is ultimately a better explanation:

"Disney did away with their long term predictions back in March and they're not saying anything more than two weeks out. Last year's crowds aren't a good indicator of this year's crowds. The summer has been completely dead. June saw lower attendance than virtually any time since September 2012. The last week of April this year was busier than Easter. No crowd calendar predicted that. Can't really go by wait times since Disney now reduces staffing so much when they're expecting fewer people. So you can have half as many people in line and still see longer waits if a ride is running with half the vehicles on the track. Avoiding Extra Magic Hours is antiquated advice. Animal Kingdom wait times this summer have been longest on Tuesdays. So I guess what I'm saying is that I don't have any information to provide. I could make it up like the "competition" and spend 20 minutes every month color coding the travel agents calendar based on when EMH is, but it wouldn't be accurate. So I don't know." (Source: http://www.easywdw.com/forums/showthread.php?33926-April-2017-Crowd-Calendar)

Thank you for posting this. Makes complete sense.

 

[cel_disney]

Josh - thanks for replying here and explaining your predicament! I am a facts and data kinda gal - I agree that without reasonable facts and data you really can't predict things!

I think that Disney needs to get their heads out of their butts and realize that not all people hang on their every move. There are folks who check their schedules and hours and then choose other options. When Disney then goes and extends those hours/attractions - it's too late - commitments have already been made elsewhere.

Coupled with the South American collapse, a pesky alligator situation, and delays in ROL, I'm sure it has not been an ideal year.

We had APs this year - we are DVC and heading for our 3rd /final trip in October. We will not be back for atleast a year after this - and even that trip will be primarily a Universal trip while using our DVC.

Good Luck trying to find a relevant way to reflect this alternate universe!

 

[KrazeeK120]

I appreciate that Josh isn't making recommendations without solid facts to back up those recommendations. I also rather enjoy his brand of snark. He tells it like it is. Just because you enjoy something doesn't mean you have to think it's without fault.

 

[cindyfan]

He's stopped doing them for now. He did a post on it, but he said this on his forums the other day, which I think is ultimately a better explanation:

"Disney did away with their long term predictions back in March and they're not saying anything more than two weeks out. Last year's crowds aren't a good indicator of this year's crowds. The summer has been completely dead. June saw lower attendance than virtually any time since September 2012. The last week of April this year was busier than Easter. No crowd calendar predicted that. Can't really go by wait times since Disney now reduces staffing so much when they're expecting fewer people. So you can have half as many people in line and still see longer waits if a ride is running with half the vehicles on the track. Avoiding Extra Magic Hours is antiquated advice. Animal Kingdom wait times this summer have been longest on Tuesdays. So I guess what I'm saying is that I don't have any information to provide. I could make it up like the "competition" and spend 20 minutes every month color coding the travel agents calendar based on when EMH is, but it wouldn't be accurate. So I don't know." (Source: http://www.easywdw.com/forums/showthread.php?33926-April-2017-Crowd-Calendar)

I am simply impressed with his honesty!!!! I don't think anyone can really be accurate these days!! Too many things change and too many variables. Thanks for the great explanation!!

 

[gsp4ever]

I like the honest explanation too. I'd always thought that the FP+ system really threw a wrench into things and, from my limited visits as a non-FL resident AP the expected slow times have become very busy (Feb and Oct) and the expected busy seasons have become relatively slow (Spring Break, Summer) Oh well, we put our eggs in the Disneyland basket this coming year as it tends to be a much more favorable experience anyway (cleaner, more relaxed CA vibe, logistically easier to park hop, etc.)

 

[buteraa]

Josh's personality is what keeps his readers coming back. His site is informative, smart, funny and honest.

 

[4HOLIDAYS]

I really appreciate Josh explaining what has been going on and how he sees it. I think he is completely correct in his thinking butI hope he finds a way to get some type of calendar going even if it is only rough at a few months out and then updated if and when disney decides to let us all in on the changes. I rely on him for lots of advice-love the snark!

 

[Anal Annie]

Since I started this thread I'd also like to say thanks to Josh for personally responding here! I appreciate your efforts and I would prefer accurate info vs wild guesses. So I get it. I'm not peeved at you (I was just hoping for a glimmer of hope) but I AM pretty irritated with Disney right now.

I think everyone who's frustrated by Disney's recent methods should drop a note to guest satisfaction to complain. They have made it so that we have to plan our meals 180 days ahead if we want certain TS dining options and of course there's the whole FP+ planning at 60 days then they have the nerve to go dicking around with the park hours 2 weeks out. Who can plan anything with any accuracy. It's stoooopid. I wish I had a Way Back Machine so we could go back to pre-FP+

 

[kappyfamily]

Since I started this thread I'd also like to say thanks to Josh for personally responding here! I appreciate your efforts and I would prefer accurate info vs wild guesses. So I get it. I'm not peeved at you (I was just hoping for a glimmer of hope) but I AM pretty irritated with Disney right now.

I think everyone who's frustrated by Disney's recent methods should drop a note to guest satisfaction to complain. They have made it so that we have to plan our meals 180 days ahead if we want certain TS dining options and of course there's the whole FP+ planning at 60 days then they have the nerve to go dicking around with the park hours 2 weeks out. Who can plan anything with any accuracy. It's stoooopid. I wish I had a Way Back Machine so we could go back to pre-FP+

Sorry I can't get past your user name.... I just keep cracking up.

 

[Anal Annie]

Sorry I can't get past your user name.... I just keep cracking up.

I've been on the DIS for nearly 10 years - folks either see the humor in being a little anal retentive and owning up to it or they gasp in disbelief and think OH HORRORS and send me PMs to try to shame me away and chastise me. Whatcha gonna do. Just gotta laugh at some folks.

 

[kappyfamily]

I've been on the DIS for nearly 10 years - folks either see the humor in being a little anal retentive and owning up to it or they gasp in disbelief and think OH HORRORS and send me PMs to try to shame me away and chastise me. Whatcha gonna do. Just gotta laugh at some folks.

Omg I love it! You be you Annie, to heck with everybody else. Sorry to everyone for going off topic....

 

[PrincessWithABlaster]

I wonder if this is an indication that the crowd calendars have gotten too big, that it's not just a few in-the-know people using them anymore, and Disney trying to reassert control. If you look at it from their POV, they put things like EMH in place in part to draw people to certain parks on certain days but now too many people avoid those parks on those days. I could see that being annoying from their POV. Although the crowd calendars were helping do the job they wanted done anyway in trying to balance out the crowd throughout the year (if the tiered pricing and fall and mid winter events are indeed intending to do that). But it seems like Disney's over done it with price increases and other things that have driven people away. I can't imagine they wanted attendance to be dead this summer.

 

[tizzant]

Trying to keep people uninformed is a terrible strategy by any company but boy oh boy does that seem to be what Disney wants to do at the moment- while screaming at you to plan your entire vacation 190 days in advance. We didn't even start planning until August 7th or 8th. We're going at the end of October/early November. And in less than a month: Starwars fireworks are gone? here? gone? here? ?????, MSEP is !#*%)!@ gone (we're ALL mad about that, that should've been made 6 months in advanced and no, they gave it about 6 weeks. I hadn't seen it in 25 years and I used it as a selling point and now this, same to you Disney), who knows what's happening with the parties, etc, etc. Maybe they're freaking out about low summer attendance and trying to make something stick while losing their minds about ROL still being down and a who-knows-when projected date?

I actually preferred josh's site. I just used the crowd calendars for the most part, but they were always happy to explain the why of a thing. I can appreciate why he's having to take a step back, I'm just sad he has to.