Will Disney build a new DVC property off site?

[takemetomickey]

This has been discussed before but let’s do some fresh speculating!

Do you think Disney will make a new DVC property off site, like Aulani, Hilton Head, Vero Beach, etc?

 

[tom1944]

If they are convinced it will make money at a rate that increases their stock value.

 

[gmi3804]

If they are convinced it will make money at a rate that increases their stock value.

Yup. Thread can be closed now.

 

[hertamaniac]

Since this is an exercise in speculation, I wouldn't mind a resort near PCB or Destin, FL. The white sand beaches and water are gorgeous.

But it would have to be built to withstand a CAT 5+ hurricane.

 

[tjkraz]

Never say never. But Hawaii is sort of a "if you can't make it here, you can't make it anywhere" timeshare destination. And sales have struggled. Simply buying the land in a premier location would cost millions, vs the undeveloped property at WDW and DL which they already own. Then there are added challenges of dealing with local residents and lawmakers, constructing and operating a resort outside of Disney's normal home base. Take all of that into account and it's easy to see why WDW and DL resorts are far more profitable.

Since Aulani's opening, DVC has spent a lot more time promoting exchanges as a way of using points for other locations. Easy to say "look at the hundreds of places you can use your points" without actually diving into how the proverbial sausage is made.

I don't think there will be another off-site DVC unless it's part of some larger Disney hotel project. Years ago Disney had options on property in NYC and DC which could have been a combined hotel + timeshare. The DC location seemed targeted as a sort of Great Wolf Lodge destination property that could have included character meals and modest attractions / recreation / waterpark. But both were abandoned.

 

[Cabius]

Never say never. But Hawaii is sort of a "if you can't make it here, you can't make it anywhere" timeshare destination. And sales have struggled. Simply buying the land in a premier location would cost millions, vs the undeveloped property at WDW and DL which they already own. Then there are added challenges of dealing with local residents and lawmakers, constructing and operating a resort outside of Disney's normal home base. Take all of that into account and it's easy to see why WDW and DL resorts are far more profitable.

Since Aulani's opening, DVC has spent a lot more time promoting exchanges as a way of using points for other locations. Easy to say "look at the hundreds of places you can use your points" without actually diving into how the proverbial sausage is made.

I don't think there will be another off-site DVC unless it's part of some larger Disney hotel project. Years ago Disney had options on property in NYC and DC which could have been a combined hotel + timeshare. The DC location seemed targeted as a sort of Great Wolf Lodge destination property that could have included character meals and modest attractions / recreation / waterpark. But both were abandoned.

Totally agree with all of this. Off-resort DVCs have largely struggled, and even where they are moderately successful, what's the risk-adjusted opportunity cost of building a new resort in CO or NY or wherever, versus in DL or WDW?

At some point (shortly after 2042?) they'll reach a point where they can just refresh and recycle the existing resorts as they expire, and basically sell a new resort every 2-3 years forever without having to build any new property. Maybe sometimes they'll do a tear-down-and-rebuild, maybe sometimes they'll do a big expansion, but for the most part that will be the endgame for DVC at WDW.

At that point, maybe they'll be more aggressive about expanding elsewhere since they'll have a lot more free capital. They could take the money they had been investing in new builds, less the cost of renovating expiring properties, and look elsewhere.

I go back and forth on whether near-off-strip Vegas is a future destination for them. There's been a long and weird history there, but I could see them doing it well, and I think there's a market for it. Who knows?

 

[LAX]

It seems the Disney name/theme isn't a big enough draw for a timeshare without a Disney park nearby, so it's highly unlikely it happens again, IMHO.

LAX

 

[CastAStone]

Absolutely not. Aulani has been a sales disaster. Vero was a sales disaster. HHI doesn’t rent out 4 months per year.

They’ve learned their lesson.

 

[tom1944]

I do think Disney America would have done better than the stand-alone resorts.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Disney's_America

 

[OKW Lover]

I seriously doubt DVC will consider another off-site property. The three existing ones just don't seem to get the same level of love (possibly excepting Aulani) as the on property resorts. Too many other options at Hilton Head and Vero for a nice stay. Similarly, Aulani competes with a vast array of competing resorts in Hawaii.

IMHO, it's really the "D" in DVC that people buy for.

 

[Phijammamama]

I seriously doubt DVC will consider another off-site property. The three existing ones just don't seem to get the same level of love (possibly excepting Aulani) as the on property resorts. Too many other options at Hilton Head and Vero for a nice stay. Similarly, Aulani competes with a vast array of competing resorts in Hawaii.

IMHO, it's really the "D" in DVC that people buy for.

Which is why I was shocked they are building Cotino. Maybe Golden Oak works well, because of location near said “D”?

 

[Brian Noble]

DVC has two problems with non-park resorts.

First, they have a "balance" problem. If you want to visit a theme park resort--especially in a studio and VERY especially during the peak Fall months--then you probably want the security of owning at one of them vs. fighting for the leftovers at seven months. And there are not enough non-Park resorts to provide a robust internal exchange system. So, owning at one of the non-park resorts is a much harder sell.

Second, the locations they've chosen for their non-park resorts are not ideal. Vero is too far north to really make it as a snowbird destination. HHI is on the wrong side of US 278. Aulani is on a man-made lagoon on IMO the wrong island, far from the spots where most people want to be on Oahu. I think part of that has been what was mentioned up-thread: land in Florida is "free" (and was bought *very* cheaply), and in at least in Vero and HHI, DVC chose less-expensive plots vs. some of the possible alternatives. I'm less sure about the price argument for Ko'Olina, but it is sort of out of the way as Hawaii goes. Even the plot in National Harbor was not great---it was a plot well away from the water, and in a development that is not served by the Metro in one of the few US cities where the subway system is functional (and arguably preferred) for a tourist.

The only way to fix the first problem is to build more of them. But the only way to sell more of them more quickly* is to fix the second problem. I don't think there is a lot of appetite in Burbank to do either of those things.

------------
*: The other possibility would be for Disney to start more aggressively marketing their timeshares. They are getting there but ever so slowly.

 

[Douglas Dubh]

The only way to fix the first problem is to build more of them.

Well, they could build something bigger that has enough of its own draw. For instance a resort in Texas that includes a water park and a golf course and horse back riding. A area with zip lines and such. A lake for fishing and boating. Maybe include some camp site for RV’s. Build it close enough to Houston or San Antonio that people could use it as a base to visit other things in the area, or before or after a cruise out of Galveston.

 

[Minniesgal]

I think it highly unlikely

 

[Jwaire]

History would say no.

Vero Beach Expansion - Cancelled
Washington, D.C. DVC - Cancelled
Newport Beach, CA - Cancelled
Mountain Lodge in Colorado - Cancelled
Times Square in NYC - Cancelled
Aulani - Still Not Sold Out

 

[peder]

History would say no.

Vero Beach Expansion - Cancelled
Washington, D.C. DVC - Cancelled
Newport Beach, CA - Cancelled
Mountain Lodge in Colorado - Cancelled
Times Square in NYC - Cancelled
Aulani - Still Not Sold Out

Disney also cancels tons of projects at Disney World (i.e. Mary Poppins at Epcot) but we wouldn't say that they're never launching another new attraction. It's not even been 14 years since Aulani opened, there could still be other DVC projects in the works that we haven't even imagined yet.

If I had to hazard a guess, a DVC property or two at Disneyland Paris is on their horizon, as well as further expansion at Disneyland in Anaheim (they've stated that Disneyland Forward will provide faster approvals for additional DVC properties, so I suspect they'd like 1 or 2 more properties over there).

I do think a timeshare that is only available at the parks is not optimal. If Hilton Head and Vero Beach fall out of the program, I think it will turn some buyers away that think their vacation options would be limited. So I think some level of further US and even global expansion is likely at some point.

 

[Brian Noble]

If Hilton Head and Vero Beach fall out of the program, I think it will turn some buyers away that think their vacation options would be limited.

I'm not sure the three non-Park resorts are enough to move the needle. None of them are in ideal locations, and all of them are in places with much better timeshare alternatives available at lower cost.

As an aside, this was why we ultimately did not buy DVC when the kids were growing up. We didn't want to tie up so much vacation capital in "one thing." In hindsight the timeshare portfolio I put together worked out well for us. Exchanging into DVC met our Disney needs--we were fine with taking the "leftovers" that DVC sent to Interval/RCI. At the same time, we didn't cringe when we used those (much less expensive) assets on non-Disney lodging that had lower market rental rates.

 

[AstroBlasters]

Disney also cancels tons of projects at Disney World (i.e. Mary Poppins at Epcot) but we wouldn't say that they're never launching another new attraction. It's not even been 14 years since Aulani opened, there could still be other DVC projects in the works that we haven't even imagined yet.

If I had to hazard a guess, a DVC property or two at Disneyland Paris is on their horizon, as well as further expansion at Disneyland in Anaheim (they've stated that Disneyland Forward will provide faster approvals for additional DVC properties, so I suspect they'd like 1 or 2 more properties over there).

I do think a timeshare that is only available at the parks is not optimal. If Hilton Head and Vero Beach fall out of the program, I think it will turn some buyers away that think their vacation options would be limited. So I think some level of further US and even global expansion is likely at some point.

They don’t need hotels when they can just launch cruise ships.

 

[Simba's Mom]

I wonder why they cancelled the Mountain Lodge in Colorado. I've always said that Disney is so concentrated in the hot climates-I'd love to see them build something in the cooler climates, where people could enjoy the mild summers, perhaps ski in the winter. Colorado would be a great spot, as would Montana, Idaho, the Dakotas, etc.
Some of us aren't into cruising.

 

[peder]

They don’t need hotels when they can just launch cruise ships.

I don't think they're either/or, they're complementary, and they use each product to cross-sell the other. Cruise ships also have a shorter lifespan and are associated with an asset that fully depreciates / becomes unsellable, where as a DVC property is still on land, there's still something tangible at the end of the day.

I wonder why they cancelled the Mountain Lodge in Colorado. I've always said that Disney is so concentrated in the hot climates-I'd love to see them build something in the cooler climates, where people could enjoy the mild summers, perhaps ski in the winter. Colorado would be a great spot, as would Montana, Idaho, the Dakotas, etc.
Some of us aren't into cruising.

The simplest answer IMO is that real estate has become prohibitively expensive for Disney to gamble on; the real estate market in general has become too efficient to extract excess returns relative to risk. For instance, Airbnb / VRBO fundamentally changed the vacation rental game and greatly increased customer expectations of a vacation rental. Only within the Disney bubble does Disney feel like they still have a differentiated product. And that's why I'd expect Disneyland Paris to eventually get a DVC property or two. Would also make the DVC product "more exotic" if you could visit Paris on your Copper Creek contract (without using your points on a hotel stay with poor conversion rates for your points).