Crystal Ball: Where do you see resale prices going for rest of 2025?

[Brian Noble]

It would probably require some very quick improvements in consumer behavior. There have been a number of earnings reports the past week or two that suggest consumer spending has been slowing down. Even those that haven't reported drops (e.g. Costco) have noted that consumers are "buying down" looking for better values.

 

[atthebeachclub]

It would probably require some very quick improvements in consumer behavior. There have been a number of earnings reports the past week or two that suggest consumer spending has been slowing down. Even those that haven't reported drops (e.g. Costco) have noted that consumers are "buying down" looking for better values.

Until people feel more certainty I suspect these negative outlooks on consumer spending will persist.

Right now a lot of consumers like myself feel like the ball in the game Pong. And I have a lot more certainty in my job than many. But government could affect my job and pay if policy changes drastically. Which…it might. Who even knows now?

Sometimes feels like the consumer uncertainty is an intended feature. And uncertainty and poor consumer outlook should reasonably affect DVC pricing in a downward manner. But I can’t predict anything anymore as the uncertainty is so prevalent in so many areas now, so maybe not. Only time will tell.

 

[disneylandtour]

The good news is that most resorts recently had their big room renovations. If I was an AKL owner with their upcoming renovation occurring during a trade war, I would be nervous.

My biggest contract is at AKV (300+ pts), but despite the high MF, because of the value rooms, these are still great points to own. I did four AKV Value Room stays this last year. So even though I'm paying $2 more per point on MF there--compared to BLT where I have three smaller contracts--there's still good value as the Value Rooms are half the points of BLT.

 

[disneylandtour]

Right now a lot of consumers like myself feel like the ball in the game Pong. And I have a lot more certainty in my job than many. But government could affect my job and pay if policy changes drastically. Which…it might. Who even knows now?

Same - my job is reasonably secure. What I see going away is side jobs or side contracts. I'm almost always able to pick up some side contracts or side work, in addition to my main job. I'm guessing that's going to be harder to find in the next two years. And the side work/contracts can be about 20% of my usual annual.

 

[TCRAIG]

I think resale prices will go down in the next 6-12 months (and beyond). So much of the US economy (Disney especially) runs off consumer confidence…and right now, I think there’s a lot of people worried about the economy overall and their jobs specifically…and rightly so. The stock market is down and unemployment is going to rise, not just because of government jobs being cut but private industry as well. I think people are going to be keeping their money close and not spending on non-necessities. I also see the DVC rental market going down as members try and rent to cover maintenance rather than being forced to sell.

 

[AstroBlasters]

So, Disneyland is offering a Canadian ticket special…. this tells me they are seeing booking from Canadian’s drop and they are trying to get them there for the 70th….

Less Canadian’s, Britons, and Europeans spending their money on holiday in the US will definitely have an impact on the travel and hospitality sectors….

I’m curious to see if WDW does something similar….

https://disneyland.disney.go.com/en-ca/offers-discounts/canada-resident-ticket-offer-2025/

I’m officially changing my vote to prices go down 10% to 20%.

 

[JackosinDIS]

So, Disneyland is offering a Canadian ticket special…. this tells me they are seeing booking from Canadian’s drop and they are trying to get them there for the 70th….

Less Canadian’s, Britons, and Europeans spending their money on holiday in the US will definitely have an impact on the travel and hospitality sectors….

I’m curious to see if WDW does something similar….

https://disneyland.disney.go.com/en-ca/offers-discounts/canada-resident-ticket-offer-2025/

I’m officially changing my vote to prices go down 10% to 20%.

That’s a pretty quick reaction (or maybe a preemptive move) from Disney. Does it indicate they are worried about a sharp drop in numbers, or just coincidence… either way, I tend to agree with you that there’s going to be a drop in prices given the way things are going with the markets. Not many people are going to be shelling out for DVC contracts right now.

 

[AstroBlasters]

That’s a pretty quick reaction (or maybe a preemptive move) from Disney. Does it indicate they are worried about a sharp drop in numbers, or just coincidence… either way, I tend to agree with you that there’s going to be a drop in prices given the way things are going with the markets. Not many people are going to be shelling out for DVC contracts right now.

I come at it from the angle that it doesn’t take much of a supply/demand change in a niche market to have an impact.

So if you take some of our Canadian friends out of the buying and renting pool and have some people need to list because someone in their household lost a job and have an incremental US buyer/renter stop looking because they are more cautious about spending additional money…. the compounded impact could easily lead to a 10% decline in some resorts….

Especially at Aulani where one large seller flooded the market with striped contracts….

I don’t see any reason SSR, OKW, AKV couldn’t follow and drop at least 10%.

 

[Girlstar30]

So, Disneyland is offering a Canadian ticket special…. this tells me they are seeing booking from Canadian’s drop and they are trying to get them there for the 70th….

Less Canadian’s, Britons, and Europeans spending their money on holiday in the US will definitely have an impact on the travel and hospitality sectors….

I’m curious to see if WDW does something similar….

https://disneyland.disney.go.com/en-ca/offers-discounts/canada-resident-ticket-offer-2025/

I’m officially changing my vote to prices go down 10% to 20%.

This is so crazy to me seeing that Disneyland seems to be more crowded than ever

 

[DVCsloth]

Edit: Modified my opinion about resale going up. Some will go up others may stay the same or go down.
If the 2042 resorts expire in January 2042, I would guess that 2041 is pretty much the last year to use them.
So, it would make sense that they will start to go down in price fairly soon. I guess a lot of it will depend on how Disney will handle the expiration as far as current owners possibly getting an extension or just everything starts new.

 

[Cfabar1]

Edit: Modified my opinion about resale going up. Some will go up others may stay the same or go down.
If the 2042 resorts expire in January 2042, I would guess that 2041 is pretty much the last year to use them.
So, it would make sense that they will start to go down in price fairly soon. I guess a lot of it will depend on how Disney will handle the expiration as far as current owners possibly getting an extension or just everything starts new.

I think BWV and BC will continue to maintain more value than the rest of the 2042s though because, for all their faults, they are good points charts that are walkable to two parks...

 

[Spivey378]

Down.

 

[VGCgroupie]

I think it will go down and go up and then average out to be about the same.

 

[maui22]

I thought Iger made a statement in the last day or two indicating Disney is reviewing spending. May be seeing some cutbacks from them.

 

[darkconz]

I thought Iger made a statement in the last day or two indicating Disney is reviewing spending. May be seeing some cutbacks from them.

Yep, the out come of that will move the resale market. Maybe with a decline in travel, that will push the prices down too.

 

[AstroBlasters]

I thought Iger made a statement in the last day or two indicating Disney is reviewing spending. May be seeing some cutbacks from them.

I have told clients for a few weeks that I’m not going to be too concerned until I see companies like Disney and Microsoft cutting cap-ex….

Well…. here we go….

 

[VGCgroupie]

I thought Iger made a statement in the last day or two indicating Disney is reviewing spending. May be seeing some cutbacks from them.

https://**************.net/2025/03/disney-vacation-cost-concerns-2025-emd1/
https://www.disneytouristblog.com/d...ds-to-rising-costs-crowds-capacity-criticism/
I dont see that here. Do you have a source?

When I google Bob Iger Disney cutting costs.. everything is from when he said that in 2023. https://www.ft.com/content/dc65a735-75d5-47ca-8a8b-73e448caa684

 

[Tatebeck]

https://**************.net/2025/03/disney-vacation-cost-concerns-2025-emd1/
https://www.disneytouristblog.com/d...ds-to-rising-costs-crowds-capacity-criticism/
I dont see that here. Do you have a source?

When I google Bob Iger Disney cutting costs.. everything is from when he said that in 2023. https://www.ft.com/content/dc65a735-75d5-47ca-8a8b-73e448caa684

https://www.****************/disney...ffs-could-send-bob-iger-into-crisis-mode-ks1/

 

[VGCgroupie]

https://www.****************/disney...ffs-could-send-bob-iger-into-crisis-mode-ks1/

If I found the right article this all “sources say” not that he made an official statement.

 

[Stank]

DVC resale prices topped out May 2021 and hit a wall. Been trending lower ever since. My guess is 5-10% lower from here over the next year.

But travel in general has become insanely overpriced. Some travel deflation is well overdo.