It's not just BLT though. VGF has always had a high price premium due to it being VGF and the 'flagship' property, but DVC resales across the board have spiked in the last year or so. SSR selling over 100pp, BCV pushing into the 140's recently, AKV and even OKW are over the 100/pp threshold as well. (for many listings, it's possible to get SSR, OKW and AKV under 100/pp if you shop around)
Now taking a step back, the question is what has caused the recent price increase across the board when it comes to DVC resales? My opinion, a few things
- The economy (in some sectors) is quite strong right now and has been for a while. Folks that have been putting off luxury purchases like DVC membership now have the funds and confidence to make this kind of discretionary purchase, where they might have been holding off in the past
- Disney hotel costs have gone up quite a bit the last few years making DVC more attractive. For instance the AOA family suite we stayed in March 2015 for about 350 a night is now about 500 a night. We rented DVC points instead in 2016 and really enjoyed it. We decided to purchase DVC after that trip.
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DVC rental market is strong - more people getting exposed to DVC, more people wanting to purchase. People that might have sold previously can now rent points out and make a little bit off the points they aren't using, so they hold on to the contract instead of selling. Increases demand for DVC.
My personal conjecture about the future of DVC resales, based on no hard information just pure guessing
I think the market softens just a touch during the holidays/first of the year, and then most likely goes back to what we saw this summer. DVC vacations are generally planned a year in advance, so folks wanting to vacation in 2019 will be active purchasers in the similar 2018 time frame. Increased costs for WDW Hotels, and upcoming excitement over Toy Story Land, Star Wars land, and WDW 50th will keep demand pretty strong. Beach Club and Boardwalk are already seeing increased resale pricing based on TSL and SWL and they don't open for quite some time. I think things stay strong through 2021 or so assuming the economy doesn't tank again.
Personally I wouldn't mind a dip though, I could really use another 100 points at BLT and wouldn't mind paying a few thousand less for them