BLT prices

[.landry]

Im still researching our DVC purchase (sadly the conversation and decision making are on a pause because of some crazy busy DW work crunch time) and ive been watching the prices and these boards about prices for the past 6+ months and what I cant figure out is how BLT has caught up and pretty much passed VGF in pricing. These are the two big contenders for us and Im trying to get a handle on what is going on with them. My understanding is that because VGF is smaller and there were fewer contracts over all, they ended up being more expensive. Is it maybe because BLT requires fewer points? But wouldnt that have been a factor prior to this price spike?
What do you think this spike is about?

 

[skippytx]

One could make the argument that BLT was previously under priced compared to the other 2 monorail DVC resorts and is simply catching up finally. BLT and VGF are both 185/pt direct from DVD, and Poly is what, 176 direct?

BLT pricing did see a big swing through the summer months, but it is starting to cool off somewhat. I don't think we'll go back to seeing BLT at the 105-115 a point range like late last year early this year. New contracts are still being listed at high $/pp but they're sitting a while on the market. I want to say September was probably the hottest month for BLT, $145/pt contract listings selling in hours not days. Now I'm seeing contracts sit for a week or two, and going for the mid/high 130's. There are still some listings coming out in the 140's and even a few at 150/pp but I don't know that they'll sell at that price.

The spike is all about demand really. BLT has one of the best, if not the best locations of all the DVC properties and I think people are wiling to pay the premium for that location. I know I was when I bought in July this year. We're big MK fans and no where else can you walk to the MK.

 

[.landry]

so you think people are just started getting hip to it being underpriced/valued compared to VGF?
It always struck me as odd that they had $15+ pp price differences.

 

[skippytx]

It's a theory of mine. I bought BLT because I like the contemporary modern theme and the location. VGF is a very nice resort, but it's not my style.

I just spot checked the last 4 deeds filed for BLT. Prices paid were $142, $135, $143, $128


We just bought back in July so I know what you're going through. We managed to pay 125 a point and I wasn't thrilled about it, but we had a big trip planned for Oct 2018 and I needed the points before the 11 month window so I paid what I felt like was a premium for a contract with all it's 2017+ points. In retrospect I got a pretty good deal considering what the market did and I'm glad I didn't wait any longer. On the other side of that coin if I would have bought in Jan/Feb 110 a point wouldn't have been out of the question.

I'm not sure what I would do right now. I'd probably wait and see what happens during/after the holidays and when dues come due. I don't know if listing prices will come down much, but I think folks will start dealing once their contract sits for a couple of weeks.

 

[.landry]

Crazy. When i started looking 6 months ago, the average was something like $117.
I get why people like it, thats why its on the short list for us. We really just like the size of the studios and the pull down beds at VGF. Thats the only thing in the plus column for VGF vs BLT for us.

 

[supersnoop]

BLT is the only DVC property with walking access to the Magic Kingdom. We’re seeing prices climbing on BEV and BCV, too. I expect VGF and BLT to end up at the same price point, with PVB a little bit behind the two.

 

[.landry]

Crazy. When i started looking 6 months ago, the average was something like $117.
I get why people like it, thats why its on the short list for us. We really just like the size of the studios and the pull down beds at VGF. Thats the only thing in the plus column for VGF vs BLT for us.

and maybe sharing home resort advantages with @kboo

 

[disneynutz]

BLT is the only MK resort that you can walk from the resort to the MK and the amount of points needed are less. TOTWL and viewing deck might be a draw for some people.

We own VGF and BLT and for us VGF is number one.

Bill

 

[CraigInPA]

BLT, with its walking access to the MK, will always be a top resort for families with children. If you've ever tried to schlep a stroller on the monorail with a sleeping child inside, you'd know why. And, as others have stated, room point costs are significantly lower than Poly and VGF, so your points go farther there.

 

[_auroraborealis_]

And with home resort, you can try for BLT Standard, which is a bargain amongst monorail resorts.

 

[.landry]

I guess my point is that this price spike was sudden. None of those things (walking distance, points exchange etc) have changed since it opened. Why now?
The cost isnt surprising the swift change is.

 

[DduzDis]

Wow. We bought for $111/ point in May this year and I thought that was a little higher than some contracts were going for then. Better lucky than good, I guess. We plan to ride this contract to the end, but nice to know we already have some 'equity'.

I would still like to see what happens to prices when dues become payable for the year.

 

[_auroraborealis_]

The entire resale market has seen some prices rising. I think BLT went up a bit quicker because it was undervalued.

 

[skippytx]

It's not just BLT though. VGF has always had a high price premium due to it being VGF and the 'flagship' property, but DVC resales across the board have spiked in the last year or so. SSR selling over 100pp, BCV pushing into the 140's recently, AKV and even OKW are over the 100/pp threshold as well. (for many listings, it's possible to get SSR, OKW and AKV under 100/pp if you shop around)

Now taking a step back, the question is what has caused the recent price increase across the board when it comes to DVC resales? My opinion, a few things

- The economy (in some sectors) is quite strong right now and has been for a while. Folks that have been putting off luxury purchases like DVC membership now have the funds and confidence to make this kind of discretionary purchase, where they might have been holding off in the past

- Disney hotel costs have gone up quite a bit the last few years making DVC more attractive. For instance the AOA family suite we stayed in March 2015 for about 350 a night is now about 500 a night. We rented DVC points instead in 2016 and really enjoyed it. We decided to purchase DVC after that trip.

- DVC rental market is strong - more people getting exposed to DVC, more people wanting to purchase. People that might have sold previously can now rent points out and make a little bit off the points they aren't using, so they hold on to the contract instead of selling. Increases demand for DVC.

My personal conjecture about the future of DVC resales, based on no hard information just pure guessing

I think the market softens just a touch during the holidays/first of the year, and then most likely goes back to what we saw this summer. DVC vacations are generally planned a year in advance, so folks wanting to vacation in 2019 will be active purchasers in the similar 2018 time frame. Increased costs for WDW Hotels, and upcoming excitement over Toy Story Land, Star Wars land, and WDW 50th will keep demand pretty strong. Beach Club and Boardwalk are already seeing increased resale pricing based on TSL and SWL and they don't open for quite some time. I think things stay strong through 2021 or so assuming the economy doesn't tank again.

Personally I wouldn't mind a dip though, I could really use another 100 points at BLT and wouldn't mind paying a few thousand less for them

 

[.landry]

It's not just BLT though. VGF has always had a high price premium due to it being VGF and the 'flagship' property, but DVC resales across the board have spiked in the last year or so. SSR selling over 100pp, BCV pushing into the 140's recently, AKV and even OKW are over the 100/pp threshold as well. (for many listings, it's possible to get SSR, OKW and AKV under 100/pp if you shop around)

Now taking a step back, the question is what has caused the recent price increase across the board when it comes to DVC resales? My opinion, a few things

- The economy (in some sectors) is quite strong right now and has been for a while. Folks that have been putting off luxury purchases like DVC membership now have the funds and confidence to make this kind of discretionary purchase, where they might have been holding off in the past

- Disney hotel costs have gone up quite a bit the last few years making DVC more attractive. For instance the AOA family suite we stayed in March 2015 for about 350 a night is now about 500 a night. We rented DVC points instead in 2016 and really enjoyed it. We decided to purchase DVC after that trip.

- DVC rental market is strong - more people getting exposed to DVC, more people wanting to purchase. People that might have sold previously can now rent points out and make a little bit off the points they aren't using, so they hold on to the contract instead of selling. Increases demand for DVC.

My personal conjecture about the future of DVC resales, based on no hard information just pure guessing

I think the market softens just a touch during the holidays/first of the year, and then most likely goes back to what we saw this summer. DVC vacations are generally planned a year in advance, so folks wanting to vacation in 2019 will be active purchasers in the similar 2018 time frame. Increased costs for WDW Hotels, and upcoming excitement over Toy Story Land, Star Wars land, and WDW 50th will keep demand pretty strong. Beach Club and Boardwalk are already seeing increased resale pricing based on TSL and SWL and they don't open for quite some time. I think things stay strong through 2021 or so assuming the economy doesn't tank again.

Personally I wouldn't mind a dip though, I could really use another 100 points at BLT and wouldn't mind paying a few thousand less for them

Thank you. That is insightful and most of what you highlighted is, not coincidentally why we are buying.

 

[kboo]

and maybe sharing home resort advantages with @kboo

No!!! I want us to be able to trade our VGF and BLT points!!

 

[kboo]

We bought for $106 pp in March, and thanks to banking, we are taking 2 trips in 2018 on those points. I’m already wishing we’d bought more points back then! But at these prices we could sell our stripped contract (“can’t close until December 2018, 160 points coming in 2019 or borrow them now!”) and probably make a small profit. Or at least get 2 vacations for “free.” Of course, then we wouldn’t be able to buy in again and our 25 point direct add on would be stranded.

@.landry, at these prices I feel like VGF is the right choice for you. In a VGF studio with one kid, you can actually keep the couch a couch, while at BLT, because There’s no pull down bed, even with 1 kid you will have to open the sofa bed, in an already tiny studio. For us, with 2 kids the sofa bed is going to be opened up unless we go up to a 2BR, at which point we will need more points.

I tend to agree with the idea of BLT being undervalued - it was perennially #2 behind SSR as lowest cost given MFs and price per point and length of contract, and its location is really great. Not just for walking distance to MK, but it’s the only DVC where you can go anywhere on Disney property without changing buses or monorails. We especially like this for going to Boma, for example. And it will be nice for going to the Boardwalk when not staying at BCV or BWV. People aren’t in love with the theming, but given other complaints on these boards about OKW, BWV and BCV refurb, maybe the “contemporary” decor doesn’t seem as bland any more.

 

[RichVIII]

I agree with others, BLT has been a bit undervalued, especially given the location. I wish the studios were bigger. The "theming" is of less concern to us. It was Location. Location. Location. for us.

 

[.landry]

People aren’t in love with the theming, but given other complaints on these boards about OKW, BWV and BCV refurb, maybe the “contemporary” decor doesn’t seem as bland any more.

DW hates the decor, which is funny because its the hotel version of our apt

 

[CraigInPA]

Personally I wouldn't mind a dip though, I could really use another 100 points at BLT and wouldn't mind paying a few thousand less for them

Wouldn't we all...