Well, the naïve part is that most people's patterns of travel are very likely to change over years. For a lot of DVC members, they have changed the timing of their yearly trip due to school/work or Disney events - "we've never been to the F&G Festival" or "Now that Austin is doing Spring and Summer baseball, late Fall works better" or "the new job has its big project crunch, we need to move the trip." Others discover they start adding trips - deciding to squeeze in a trip every year or every few years for Christmas decorations or F&W or they decide to try a RunDisney event.
Our initial travel pattern was October - our young kids had a school break that let us remove them for three days to get a full week. Weather was great. But once they hit middle school, taking them out for three days was a no-go because of the workload and school policies around make up work - and by high school that break was even more difficult to justify since it was used for sports and drama practices. So we moved the family trip to late August - school hadn't started and my kids didn't do those "right before school" activities like football and marching band that mean you start early. Then the kids got to be young adults, and now we use points for a snowbird trip out of Minnesota to Hilton Head in February while the kids hold jobs and go to college - and when we do tend to take family trips - they tend to be late Spring.