Who wants to help a gal (who's too cheap to pay for Touring Plans) out with crowd levels?

[Delphinidae]

We are going the same time and I'm a little bummed that the crowd predictions have gone up. I'm hoping it at least won't be wall to wall people and that we can still get things done by Rope Dropping most days. Never been in August before so not sure what we are really getting into!

 

[Micca]

My favorite analogy is that of weather forecasters: None are right all of the time, most are right some of the time. The forecasts change just as the weather forecast changes--We thought the cold front would come through, but instead it went to the north. What are you gonna do? There are only so many variables you can plug-in to a crowd prediction algorithm, sometimes they can't predict the whims of thousands of potential WDW guests for a specific time-frame.

 

[Klayfish]

Truthfully, we found the crowd calendars to be about 50% accurate. When you think about it, those are the same odds as flipping a coin. So, I guess that's my take on it. Nothing personal against them, I've just found them to have the same statistical odds of being right as if I had picked "yes" or "no" out of a hat. I find the best way to predict accuracy is time of the year. Holidays are most crowded, plain and simple.

Maybe it's just my tolerance for it, because I love WDW so much, but with the one and only exception of MK on Christmas Day, I've never been in a park where I said "Gee, this is like sardines, we should just go home". Sure, holidays are crowded at times, but quite honestly even those times I find it much more tolerable than our local Six Flags on any regular summer weekend.

 

[AngiTN]

Many have said that. However, they are rather late to update their predictions as Disney changes hours, shows etc. For instance, their Sept. calendar hasn't been updated since February. Their August hasn't been updated since December. Touring plans updated theirs a few days after Disney updated their calendar schedules.

There is reason. Added hours to AK for Sept/Oct. for instance.

Not necessarily. You are assuming a change in hours means a change in crowd predictions or recommended parks. That is an incorrect assumption. A change in hours doesn't mean an automatic change in crowd calendars or recommend parks. If the park crowd levels or recommendations needed to be changed after an update, they would have been updated. If he thought they didn't need to be changed, then they wouldn't be. Luckily, there are numerous crowd prediction sites out there and if you aren't happy with the way one is done, then you have others to pick from. Having been on monthly trips for this past year I know which one matches my perception more than the others and that's the one I use.

 

[DVCcurious]

Just take this quiz:
Is it christmas, easter, or 4th of July?
Then it's ludicrously crowded

Is it June 15- July 31 or Spring Break (later March through early April)?
Then it's massively crowded

Is it May or August, thanksgiving, Columbus Day, MLK, or President's day weekend?
Then it's uncomfortably crowded

Is it any other time?
Then it's just annoyingly crowded

Is there a tropical storm or hurricane in the forecast?
Then it's empty

 

[wdwshelby9]

I too am going next week and was very worried when the sites revised their predictions for higher crowds. HOWEVER, I have been watching TP over the last few days and have been pleasantly surprised with what has been happening: they predicted 7-9 level crowds and what they saw has been 4-5 level crowds resort-wide. I now their system isn't perfect but it has made me feel slightly better!

 

[MaryLovesPoohBear]

I had to rephrase my question because it seems that my humor is lost to some (I am not really cheap, I would pay for Touring Plans if they were the only crowd calendar but since Easy WDE and Kenny the Pirate are free, I just use those). With that said:

We'll be in WDW next week (WOO HOO! FINALLY! ) and I'm curious about what crowd levels I can expect during that time. I went to Easy WDW but those numbers are from February and I've seen a lot of posts on here lately that crowds were much higher than what the calendars are saying. So for those who have been to WDW in the last couple of weeks and who have used Easy WDW and/or Kenny's crowd calendars, how far off (or not) were the numbers?


I know that there is no "slow" time anymore and that I can pretty much expect it to be crowded but on a scale of "Packed in Like Sardines" to "Forget About it, Just Stay in Your Hotel Room", how bad has it been?


I've got my FPs and ADRs and I have no illusions that I will be able to see and do everything, I'm just looking for an estimation so I know how to pace myself. Thanks.

I pay for Touring Plans.

And I can honestly say, if you want the information that Touring Plans puts out, then you need to pay for it.

Just like everyone says about Kenny. He puts out information that others don't have. If you want it, you have to pay for it.

 

[focusondisney]

I see no point in paying for a crowd calendar - especially when there seems to be no agreement on how reliable they are. That said, I don't cheap out on vacation but then because I don't waste money on things like crowd calendars, I can afford to eat at Yachstman for dinner. I wanted to do the V&A private dinner but it was booked up. I may use coupons at home but when I go on vacation, I never scrimp to save.

You see no point in paying for a crowd calendar, but have no problem taking advantage of others who do pay?? Ok......

 

[Sybernova]

Just take this quiz:
Is it christmas, easter, or 4th of July?
Then it's ludicrously crowded

Is it June 15- July 31 or Spring Break (later March through early April)?
Then it's massively crowded

Is it May or August, thanksgiving, Columbus Day, MLK, or President's day weekend?
Then it's uncomfortably crowded

Is it any other time?
Then it's just annoyingly crowded

Is there a tropical storm or hurricane in the forecast?
Then it's empty

This. People get so caught up on what day is a "5" and which is a "7" but people just need to adjust their expectations. You will not be alone in the parks. Attendance for early to mid summer is less and will likely go down. If you tour effectively, relax during the busy afternoon times, and plan FP+ carefully, you will have a great time. Some people can't look past numbers and say stupid things like "this isn't a 5!" and then ruin their own vacations.

 

[momimouse27]

I don't know if it's just me, but does anyone remember back when August used to be fairly slow? I am actually shocked to read here how high the number are for this time of the year. Its been quite a few years since we've been in August-I think about 10 years or so, but I remember it being a slow time. I know the *there's never a truly slow period anymore* mantra, but I would expect a big number drop with school beginning. I know our schools here go back the first week of August. Do lots of people go much later, like around Labor Day? I'm honestly curious.

 

[AngiTN]

I don't know if it's just me, but does anyone remember back when August used to be fairly slow? I am actually shocked to read here how high the number are for this time of the year. Its been quite a few years since we've been in August-I think about 10 years or so, but I remember it being a slow time. I know the *there's never a truly slow period anymore* mantra, but I would expect a big number drop with school beginning. I know our schools here go back the first week of August. Do lots of people go much later, like around Labor Day? I'm honestly curious.

You would be wrong in that expectation. There are still A LOT of kids that don't go back till after Labor Day
You can't even put the attendance from 10 years ago and the attendance today in the same solar system. They are as different as they can possibly be.

 

[keishashadow]

There is reason. Added hours to AK for Sept/Oct. for instance.

Everytime I visit and the hours are extended it runs true to course that the parks are crowded.

Another indicator in the past has been prices of rental cars. Unless the pricing module has changed since the end of June, the rates I've been seeing for August don't bode well for low to even moderate crowds. Same for my October trip...and they say attendance is down - ha!

We'll be landing on Saturday for a last minute, short BD trip. My first in August, probably the only month I haven't visited. shocked to see the crowd calendar projections, even though I rarely follow any of the touring plans. Usually just avoid am EE and if a park is packed, head off to greener pastures.

Had thought the parks would be deserted so close to free dining, combined with thinking even mad dogs & Englishmen would know enough to stay out of the sun in August. Naw, we're all mad here.

 

[Huff]

. If the park crowd levels or recommendations needed to be changed after an update, they would have been updated. If he thought they didn't need to be changed, then they wouldn't be.

Thats making the assumption the website owner does indeed update regularly as needed. I don't see that in the case of easywdw. Predictions are put out and few updates are ever done for most of a year. Added hours, new night time shows added, higher hotel bookings etc. do not feel should be ignored. I think the owner of the website simply doesn't update very often regardless of changes.

 

[Nfatuated]

I see no point in paying for a crowd calendar - especially when there seems to be no agreement on how reliable they are. That said, I don't cheap out on vacation but then because I don't waste money on things like crowd calendars, I can afford to eat at Yachstman for dinner. I wanted to do the V&A private dinner but it was booked up. I may use coupons at home but when I go on vacation, I never scrimp to save.

Well TP only costs $10 a year..just saying. Also sharing the TP data for free is pretty much the equivalent of stealing. Please don't share.

 

[MammaMoe48]

My phrasing about being cheap was meant to be a joke, (obviously not a very good one), if I thought that asking people who have recently gotten back from WDW about the accuracy of the crowd calendars compared to actual crowds was equivalent to stealing, I wouldn't have asked. I know it will be crowded no matter what and thanks to everything I've read on here I have contingencies and back up plans in case my initial plan isn't doable. I was just trying to get a feel for people's experiences down there. I thought I was choosing a not as terribly crowded month based on the crowd calendars I've looked at but from comments I read on here it seems there's been mixed opinions about how accurate they've been. So I was just asking if anyone could confirm the accuracy of the crowd calendars. Sorry.

 

[HeyIt'sMe]

In addition to easywdw, I also use kennythepirate.com.

I was just looking at kennythepirate's WDW Operating Hours for the week of August 14 since that's when we're visiting.
For Tuesday, August 16 he shows MK's hours as 8:00am-1:00am. The Disney website shows the MK opens at 9:00am that day which makes sense since that is an EMM.

 

[momimouse27]

You would be wrong in that expectation. There are still A LOT of kids that don't go back till after Labor Day
You can't even put the attendance from 10 years ago and the attendance today in the same solar system. They are as different as they can possibly be.

That explains how much of a drop in crowd level there is when you get to the last week of August. Even though you hear others experiences, its hard to separate that from your personal memories. When I was small, we hardly ever went back to school before Labor Day, and our school district has gone back earlier and earlier every year. They went back the first week of August this year, which is absurd, IMO.

 

[CarolinaDD1997]

Im at WDW right now. Crowds have been SO Low to me. Went to Magic Kingdom on saturday and it had some people but nothing too overwhelming. Like all the lines were lower than 20 min (except Space and 7DMT). Haunted Mansion said it was 20 minutes and it was like 5-10 until we got to the ride. Its a Small World, Mad Tea Party, Little Mermaid, Merida's meet & greet, and many more were also 5 minute wait, except Merida which was like 10 but still. We did like 15 rides, 2 shows, FoF Parade, Wishes, Liberty Tree Tavern dinner, and much more....all in one day. Animal Kingdom on Sunday was EMPTY. Everest, Kali and Kilimanjaro all had 5-10 minutes waits. In fact, Kilimanjaro and Kali had just a couple people before us in line, and that was between 4-7 pm so I was definitely expecting more people. Epcot this morning also had some decent crowds, nothing too big either. Im heading to MK tonight so we'll see how it goes. But I seriously was expecting higher crowds in August as I had read in the touring pages and it definitely wasn't like that

 

[Maxie86]

There are a certain number of days on Touring Plans that are free, you have to subscribe to get the full crowd calendar, I just checked and Septembers is up but not August. The app also has some free wait times and crowd calendar for certain rides and number of days(10 maybe?). You have to subscribe to get the full crowd calendar and all wait times. I use the app for wait times in the parks, I find it better than MDE and never have trouble opening it...sometimes I can't even get MDE to open in the parks. If you put your trip dates in TP and track crowds they will email you with any updates on the crowd calendar. I subscribe mostly for the app, I never use the touring plans. The FP availability and wait times...posted and actual... are worth the price of the subscription to me.