WDW cancelled our castle dinner?

[MamaBelle4]

All right. We can quibble over the definition of "extreme." Maybe it was hyperbole on my part. My point still stands, however.

I know I can be accused if using hyperbole frequently to get a point across, myself.

 

[marikujawa]

According to this book, which was authored by the Disney Institute, the theme parks have a 70% return rate. Independent studies into this topic have also shown that at least 70 to 75% of people who visit the Disney parks return in their lifetime. Once-in-a-lifetime guests are a minority.

Are there any math teachers out there willing to take on the task of explaining why this statistic does not mean that 70% of the all the people who visit Disney have already been there before?

 

[marikujawa]

According to this book, which was authored by the Disney Institute, the theme parks have a 70% return rate. Independent studies into this topic have also shown that at least 70 to 75% of people who visit the Disney parks return in their lifetime. Once-in-a-lifetime guests are a minority.

 

[jdisnut]

Are there any math teachers out there willing to take on the task of explaining why this statistic does not mean that 70% of the all the people who visit Disney have already been there before?

I understand exactly what the statistic means.

 

[marikujawa]

I understand exactly what the statistic means.

I apologize for my snotty reply to your post, but this subject has me very concerned (and is making me crazier than usual). I have visited WDW a ridiculous number of times over the past 30+ years, and nothing in my experience as a repeat, and intended future, visitor has led me to anticipate or accept that Disney would fail to honor a commitment to me simply because something better has come along. If anything, the opposite is true. I continue to go to Disney because they do things better and hold themselves to a higher standard. My expectation is that someone scheduling the Disney chef dinner would look at the schedule and say, "Well, we can't hold it at CRT that night because it's already booked," not "Let's do it there and see what we can do to accommodate those who are displaced." What happened to the OP, coming close on the heels of the Highway in the Sky Dine Around fiasco (since fixed because of guest complaints), has me wondering what is going on. If these decisions were made by a particular person or group, someone higher up at Disney needs to address this. If it's a change in the way Disney is going to honor its commitments to its guests, Disney will start having fewer repeat visitors.

 

[BayouQueen]

I apologize for my snotty reply to your post, but this subject has me very concerned (and is making me crazier than usual). I have visited WDW a ridiculous number of times over the past 30+ years, and nothing in my experience as a repeat, and intended future, visitor has led me to anticipate or accept that Disney would fail to honor a commitment to me simply because something better has come along. If anything, the opposite is true. I continue to go to Disney because they do things better and hold themselves to a higher standard. My expectation is that someone scheduling the Disney chef dinner would look at the schedule and say, "Well, we can't hold it at CRT that night because it's already booked," not "Let's do it there and see what we can do to accommodate those who are displaced." What happened to the OP, coming close on the heels of the Highway in the Sky Dine Around fiasco (since fixed because of guest complaints), has me wondering what is going on. If these decisions were made by a particular person or group, someone higher up at Disney needs to address this. If it's a change in the way Disney is going to honor its commitments to its guests, Disney will start having fewer repeat visitors.

I'll be keeping an eye out for this kind of thing as well. Seriously unacceptable.

 

[Kaytie]

This is insulting? Having vacation plans mucked up for guests with more money isn't insulting?!

Guests attending the Chefs Series can't be assumed to have more money than vacation plans guests. They simply choose to spend their money differently.

25-30%, I wouldn't consider that an extreme minority.

Repeat visitors outnumber first/sole visit customers by a ratio of between 2.3-1 and 3-1. Put together ten or even 100 people and no, it doesn't seem extreme. Up that to 10,000 people and you can see how extreme the difference is between the 7,500 group and the 2,500 group could absolutely be views as extreme.

 

[marikujawa]

Guests attending the Chefs Series can't be assumed to have more money than vacation plans guests. They simply choose to spend their money differently.

Repeat visitors outnumber first/sole visit customers by a ratio of between 2.3-1 and 3-1. Put together ten or even 100 people and no, it doesn't seem extreme. Up that to 10,000 people and you can see how extreme the difference is between the 7,500 group and the 2,500 group could absolutely be views as extreme.

I don't think either of these points really matter. Life hands us disappointments, both large and small. We expect it and deal with them. For example, I learned from earlier posts on this thread that I'm elderly (61). Disappointed? Yes, but I'll get over it. But no one should have to deal with disappointments intentionally handed to them by a trusted and very expensive vacation destination. It shouldn't matter whether the person spent more or less money than someone else or whether the person is a repeat or first-time visitor.

 

[cigar95]

Are there any math teachers out there willing to take on the task of explaining why this statistic does not mean that 70% of the all the people who visit Disney have already been there before?

not sure how serious you are about wanting an answer, but the original statistic does not tell us enough to lead to the latter conclusion. For one thing, there's a difference between "first time visitor" and "one-time-only visitor". Some of the first timers we see today will be among the 70% that return at some point.
Furthermore, the number doesn't tell us *how many times* repeat visitors will return. If, hypothetically, the average return visitor returns 100 times (just to exaggerate), then even though 30% might be one-time only, the ratio of returners to one-timers at any given time would be closer to 7000-30 rather than 70-30. (Mathematically, even that ratio also has to be adjusted, since it isn't a simple multiplier, but thats a first-order estimate . . . )
In short, the statistic on percentage of returnees isn't enough to tell us the (average) percentage of one-time only visitors - or even first-time visitors - who are in the park on a given day.

 

[ellie05]

I don't think anyone was trying to say that people that come to Disney are uneducated and barely make enough money but a Disney vacation is not cheap and i will include myself in this when you go often you become jaded to Disney prices. On top of that we are talking about CRT which is far from cheap and I think for most people is a splurge and most likely a once in a lifetime kind of experience regardless if you return to Disney or not.

I also have been to Disney enough times to know that even if it is not your first time a trip could be a trip of a lifetime. The trip my whole family took in 2015 was a trip of a lifetime for so many different reasons.

 

[Lisa F]

You know, it's easy for those of use here, who are basically rabid Disney fans who find every opportunity we can to experience, or at least talk about, WDW (or DLR, for that matter) to say, "Oh well, next time you'll know better," or "Disney is a business; things like this happen." However, I guarantee you the majority of those 30 families who had their CRT ADRs canceled are hardworking average Joes and Janes who probably could not easily afford the massively expensive Disney vacation on which they took their families, who six months ago felt an immense sense of relief and gratitude that they were able to get CRT reservations for their children at all, who may very well have pre-booked expensive BBB visits for their daughters immediately before their CRT dinner because of their CRT dinner, and who were immensely shocked and heartbroken, and feeling like they had little recourse if any at all, when Disney called to say, "Sorry, you're booted."

And I don't see the people shrugging their shoulders in this thread and saying, "Oops," reflecting any real, empathetic understanding of the very doubtlessly very large emotional impact that most of those families experienced. If you can't wrap your mind around the financial and emotional importance of CRT, much less a WDW vacation in general, anymore for the average WDW visitor, who comes at WDW from a less jaded perspective than we all do and is overwhelmingly concerned with getting everything right, and instead you blithely think that WDW comes easy for most people and stuff like this is no big deal, then I think you need to check your privilege. We are the outliers here. We should not expect the average WDW visitor to be able to parse and navigate as we do--much less downplay the magic and be apologists for Disney.

Saying it's OK for Disney to pull the magical rug out from under any guest because they got a better offer is not my Disney. I'm sure Walt would call corporate behavior like this worse things than Pete Werner did, and I think he really nailed it.

I would agree with you IF they had actually cancelled the meal and not rescheduled it.

but no one is having their CRT taken away from them. it is just at a different time.

I work with my autistic son on a daily (sometimes hourly) basis about being "flexible" in his life. it is very hard for him to be... but he also takes a lot of his cues from me. I have had to put my money where my mouth is and demonstrate flexibility myself where I might not have been previously inclined to do so. There is a difference between "I'm sorry, you can't go to CRT" and "I'm sorry, we'll have to move your ADR to a different time." The first is absolutely not acceptable, the second is a time for flexibility.

and i'm not talking as a rabid Disney fan. I am a single working mother or a special needs kid who scrimps and saves and can do a trip once every 2 years if I do that... and that is ONLY because I purchased DVC 17 years ago with his father. It would add another year to saving if I had to pay for lodging as well. I get that everything about every trip feels SO important when you don't go frequently. I really do. that feeling is heightened tremendously by realizing that in 2 years my son could be very very different than he is today and what's the experience of a lifetime at 8 might be a yawner at 10. But that said, no one took away the CRT experience from these people. They just moved it around. That is where I am having a hard time seeing what the huge deal is. If they had outright cancelled and not found another slot for the OP I'd be right there with you.

 

[mom2rtk]

I would agree with you IF they had actually cancelled the meal and not rescheduled it.

but no one is having their CRT taken away from them. it is just at a different time.

I work with my autistic son on a daily (sometimes hourly) basis about being "flexible" in his life. it is very hard for him to be... but he also takes a lot of his cues from me. I have had to put my money where my mouth is and demonstrate flexibility myself where I might not have been previously inclined to do so. There is a difference between "I'm sorry, you can't go to CRT" and "I'm sorry, we'll have to move your ADR to a different time." The first is absolutely not acceptable, the second is a time for flexibility.

and i'm not talking as a rabid Disney fan. I am a single working mother or a special needs kid who scrimps and saves and can do a trip once every 2 years if I do that... and that is ONLY because I purchased DVC 17 years ago with his father. It would add another year to saving if I had to pay for lodging as well. I get that everything about every trip feels SO important when you don't go frequently. I really do. that feeling is heightened tremendously by realizing that in 2 years my son could be very very different than he is today and what's the experience of a lifetime at 8 might be a yawner at 10. But that said, no one took away the CRT experience from these people. They just moved it around. That is where I am having a hard time seeing what the huge deal is. If they had outright cancelled and not found another slot for the OP I'd be right there with you.

Do you know for sure that everyone was indeed able to reschedule? Do you know that people were ok switching dinner to breakfast or lunch? Some people don't have week long trips with lots of days to move a special event around.

And I think flexibility is a great life skill. I would happily be flexible if they were making an emergency repair. I would happily be flexible if they were moving things around because of a hurricane or some serious weather event. But for a last minute high end upcharge event? Not interested in being flexible so they can line Bob's pocket a little more.

 

[marikujawa]

not sure how serious you are about wanting an answer, but the original statistic does not tell us enough to lead to the latter conclusion. For one thing, there's a difference between "first time visitor" and "one-time-only visitor". Some of the first timers we see today will be among the 70% that return at some point.
Furthermore, the number doesn't tell us *how many times* repeat visitors will return. If, hypothetically, the average return visitor returns 100 times (just to exaggerate), then even though 30% might be one-time only, the ratio of returners to one-timers at any given time would be closer to 7000-30 rather than 70-30. (Mathematically, even that ratio also has to be adjusted, since it isn't a simple multiplier, but thats a first-order estimate . . . )
In short, the statistic on percentage of returnees isn't enough to tell us the (average) percentage of one-time only visitors - or even first-time visitors - who are in the park on a given day.

Thank you for reminding a good many of us why we didn't go into math . . .
On a more serious note, I appreciate the time and trouble you took to explain this, but I probably should not have asked the question in the first place. It seemed that another poster was trying to minimize the impact of Disney's action in cancelling CRT reservations by suggesting that only an "extreme minority" of first-time or once-in-a-lifetime visitors are deserving of sympathy (presumably, the rest can just go the next time). I disagree. As elle05 pointed out, even a repeat visitor can have a "once-in-a-lifetime" trip, depending on the circumstances. CRT is a coveted, difficult-to-obtain reservation. Disney can bump my husband and me from Jiko, no problem. But if someday in the future we were bringing a 5-year-old granddaughter and I managed to snag a CRT reservation, I would expect Disney to honor that reservation instead of chasing after a more lucrative prospect. And I think Disney understands this very well. My best guess is that some event planning group went rogue and made a very "unmagical" decision that won't be repeated, given what's hit the fan.

 

[Lisa F]

Do you know for sure that everyone was indeed able to reschedule? Do you know that people were ok switching dinner to breakfast or lunch? Some people don't have week long trips with lots of days to move a special event around.

And I think flexibility is a great life skill. I would happily be flexible if they were making an emergency repair. I would happily be flexible if they were moving things around because of a hurricane or some serious weather event. But for a last minute high end upcharge event? Not interested in being flexible so they can line Bob's pocket a little more.

no one has come here reporting that they were not accommodated. The only person who came here to report about it WAS and it worked out better. So I think if we are going to be making assumptions, we should assume that anyone who was bumped WAS accommodated and not that they were not, based on the available info.

We can play "what if?" all day long about various scenarios, but with the actual available information, Disney has done right by these people.

 

[mom2rtk]

no one has come here reporting that they were not accommodated. The only person who came here to report about it WAS and it worked out better. So I think if we are going to be making assumptions, we should assume that anyone who was bumped WAS accommodated and not that they were not, based on the available info.

So your guess is better than my guess? Ok.

 

[Lisa F]

So your guess is better than my guess? Ok.

I'm just saying we have NO evidence that people were not properly accommodated. ONLY that they were. If we are arguing what really happened, nothing awful happened to these people. If we are arguing what might could possibly happen, there are infinite possibilities. People are outraged for scenarios that we have no evidence at all exists... while ignoring that for the scenario that we do have evidence that exists, the person ended up with a solution better than what they already had. If someone actually came here and stated that their once in a lifetime castle experience was cancelled and nothing else at all worked for them I'd be right there with the outrage. I can't get outraged about a hypothetical when the actual facts suggest otherwise.

 

[marikujawa]

no one has come here reporting that they were not accommodated. The only person who came here to report about it WAS and it worked out better. So I think if we are going to be making assumptions, we should assume that anyone who was bumped WAS accommodated and not that they were not, based on the available info.

We can play "what if?" all day long about various scenarios, but with the actual available information, Disney has done right by these people.

I've heard may euphemisms for what was done to these people lol, but "done right by" is a first.

 

[Lisa F]

I've heard may euphemisms for what was done to these people lol, but "done right by" is a first.

you don't think the resolution of moving both the BBB and CRT ADR to a different day that ultimately worked out better for the OP was "done right by"?

 

[marikujawa]

you don't think the resolution of moving both the BBB and CRT ADR to a different day that ultimately worked out better for the OP was "done right by"?

Let's just say I hope Disney never decides to "do right by" me.

 

[Lisa F]

Let's just say I hope Disney never decides to "do right by" me.

let's just say that in your life, I hope getting your CRT ADR along with accompanying plans moved to a different day is the worst thing that ever happens to you.