Here now...crowd calendars WAY off!

[GillianP1301]

I've only very loosely followed the crowd calendars in the past. The accuracy is a real struggle the last year, I'm sure for multiple different reasons. If a park is crowded to the point of being unpleasant, I just go back to the resort and hang out in the pool for a bit of hop to another park.

 

[Love Tink]

I agree with those who say more people use these planning sites now. I've discussed this on here many times in the past and have been dismissed. But isn't it logical to think if every planning site tells you to go to WDW in September because it's the best time of the year in terms of crowds, that as more people use these sites and take their recommendations, these "slow" times will actually start to have dramatic increases in crowds??

What you are missing with this theory is why the lower seasons are lower. It isn't because it just never occurred to anyone that September or the week before Thanksgiving might be a good time to go to Disney World. The lower times are lower because of how people live their lives - when kids are in school, when many professionals are able to take vacation, when sports or activity schedules allow, when the weather is best, etc. More people are willing to go in the summer, when kids are out of school, than in September, when they just started. The Grand Canyon is much less crowded in November than in July. Flights to Europe are less expensive in January than in June.

So if the economy is good and the discounts are good, people will travel. But most of them will travel when it works for their families - and seeing "September is a low time for crowds" (which shouldn't be a surprise to anyone) probably isn't going to make someone pull their kids out of school if they weren't doing that already, or if the kids don't want to be pulled.

 

[Love Tink]

I no longer use crowd calendars. I have found both Easywdw adn Touring Plans to be erratic and overall not very accurate. I get that they try to use past history, park hours, special events, EMH and etc. to figure out what may happen and predict crowd levels. But one thing that I have learned in my several trips to WDW: Busy is busy and there is no way around it. I have also learned there really is no such thing as a slow time or season anymore.

Eh. That is your perception. My last three trips were the first week of May (this year), the last week of August, and the first week of November. I would describe two of them as slow and one as moderate.

 

[scrappingbuckeye]

MK was super busy yesterday - like Spring Break busy.

 

[GreatLakes]

I was always under the impression that a 5 meant that attendance was going to be in the 50 percentile when compared to the busiest time. As the busiest time gets busier and the attendance curve flattens there is not as drastic of a difference between high and low numbers.

I think a lot of people see a 4 and think it will be half as busy as a 8 when in reality a 4 and 8 might be so close you can't perceive a difference in crowd levels as Disney uses incentives to get people down there at what were historically slower times.

 

[tlmadden73]

I feel the crowd calendars have been relying on past data too much and the past two years at Disney (based on my own trips and reports on here) seem to have thrown those calculations out the window.

Let's face it .. sites like this one and the crowd calendars have been doubting the "best time to beat the crowds" for years now and finally the self-fulfilling prophecy has come true. A lot of people are following that advice and going when the "traditional" low crowd times are.

Throw on top of that these special parties (that get more and more popular due to word of mouth and sites like this) and free dining and Disney discounts on rooms and you have super crowded times a lot of the time.

Heck .. maybe the summer is better to go now due to people staying away because they THINK it is crowded and don't want to go because of the extreme heat?

 

[anniemae]

I also think the crowd calendars can't account for the spontaneous things like the announcement of Osborn Lights (enticed a lot of people), great balmy 70 degree weather attracting locals, Jewish holidays (many schools were closed so people went to Disney and many were caught off guard by the crowds) etc. Add to that the fact that many people are homeschooling and not trapped by the traditional school calendar and more and more "fall breaks" etc. Makes it hard to compare to years past when the landscape is constantly changing.

 

[notfrostyjosh]

For whatever it's worth, this is how easywdw operates: http://disboards.com/threads/who-has-the-best-crowd-calendar.2965605/page-3#post-45681529. There isn't necessarily a lot of emphasis on the past, though it's certainly taken into account. I don't do anything unless there's verifiable, concrete information. That's why you won't find any information on crowds further than about 6.5 months out. There's no projections that far out and if I were to tell you about August 2016 or something ten months in advance, I'd just be guessing based on how August 2014 and 2015 were. As others have stated, guessing isn't going to take us very far. It's also why you won't find any recommendations around Christmas. Disney's projections for about two weeks there are the exact same (high) numbers every day. Again, I could guess or base it on last year, but I don't think that would ultimately be helpful.

One problem that is occasionally run into is that the parks are legitimately busier than expected and you do see a lot of problems with staffing when that happens, which in turn compounds "crowdedness." Since we're talking about Animal Kingdom on November 14th, that did legitimately happen as the park hours were extended by an hour on the day of. Attendance wise, the parks are not significantly busier this year than last year or the year before. The increases are in the very low single digits, particularly at the parks not named Magic Kingdom. My guess is we'll see increased staffing and longer operating hours next year, which should help combat the feelings of "crowdedness." I could go on for a few days about data mining, reduced staffing, the effects of MyMagic+, etc. I've seen a lot of people asserting that MyMagic+ is offering some kind of portal into guest behavior, but that's either not happening or whoever runs Touring Plans is in charge of interpreting it, because we really aren't seeing an increase in the accuracy of the projections. They're actually trending in the opposite direction. Hopefully that instills confidence.

 

[rwdavis2]

Delete as the post directly below posted an update to the speculation. It's recommended reading.

 

[notfrostyjosh]

The podcast where some of the Touring Plans folks participate were speculating (and I mean pure speculation) that CMs are being told to slow down loading to make it feel more crowded to justify large price increases over the next few years.

Yeah, there's a followup: http://blog.touringplans.com/2015/10/29/whats-up-with-wait-times-at-disneys-hollywood-studios/

"Is Disney Intentionally Lowering Ride Capacity? No. I said this on a WDWToday podcast and in blog comments here. I don’t think it’s true now. You can explain virtually all of the wait time increases across all four parks by looking at attraction closures, more efficient FastPass+ lines, and mechanical issues. Disney management may be a lot of things, but they’re not Enron. I regret saying it, and I apologize."

Amusingly, Universal does actually do this during early entry.

 

[mshanson3121]

What you are missing with this theory is why the lower seasons are lower. It isn't because it just never occurred to anyone that September or the week before Thanksgiving might be a good time to go to Disney World. The lower times are lower because of how people live their lives - when kids are in school, when many professionals are able to take vacation, when sports or activity schedules allow, when the weather is best, etc. More people are willing to go in the summer, when kids are out of school, than in September, when they just started. The Grand Canyon is much less crowded in November than in July. Flights to Europe are less expensive in January than in June.

So if the economy is good and the discounts are good, people will travel. But most of them will travel when it works for their families - and seeing "September is a low time for crowds" (which shouldn't be a surprise to anyone) probably isn't going to make someone pull their kids out of school if they weren't doing that already, or if the kids don't want to be pulled.

^^^This. We are fully aware of when the slow times are, and yes, if we were able to, we'd jump at the chance to travel then. But my husband is a teacher and has only two options: Christmas Break or Summer Break. Basically the busiest times of the year. Sure, I could just go and take the kids myself, but if we're going to spend thousands of dollars on a vacation - it's going to be a family vacation. And while Disney sure isn't his first choice, he also is not willing to miss experiencing it with the kids.

 

[Nikki0401]

We are also here and following Easywdw's crowd calendars and have found them to be pretty accurate. There are A LOT of people here and walking around is crowded, but using Ridemax we have literally walked onto just about everything. On Friday in the MK we did 13 attractions, ate lunch, and played an hour of Sorcerer's of the Magic Kingdom and left at about 2:30. I just don't think we could have done that if it had been busier. Yesterday at Animal Kingdom it did seem more crowded than the 6 that was predicted, but again we never waited in line. All of the shows had room to spare. There may be a lot of people here, but I still don't think it is as crowded as other times.

What is "Ridemax"?

 

[Nikki0401]

We are never at the parks between 12-7pm. It's just not fun anymore. There are way too many people and lines are way too long. We go back to the hotel and swim.

I like this idea, we go in August so you almost have to leave for a while because of the heat. Do you use fast pass, is it better to fast pass in the am or pm?

 

[siskaren]

What is "Ridemax"?

https://www.ridemax.com/

 

[goofy4prez]

Eh. That is your perception. My last three trips were the first week of May (this year), the last week of August, and the first week of November. I would describe two of them as slow and one as moderate.

Eh. Your right, that is my perception. Thus the very reason I stated, "I have found them." I guess perhaps I should have CAPITALIZED AND SAID, WARNING WARNING, IMO... I went the end of August 08 and would call that one moderate. I went the end of Jan-beginning of Feb. and other than the first two days, it was very busy. And I went the last week of December 13 and the parks were a mad house. All of these dates were predicted to be 3-4's on the crowd calendar and were anything but. I'm glad you found it to be different.

With that said, Eh. In my perception; or in other words, my opinion, I stand by what I previously posted.

 

[Welovedisney!]

We were there Oct 31-Nov 9th. It was predicted to be crowded many of the days. And yes. It was! We did not have a "plan" but did have our fp+ which ever used everyday. There were times when the parks were unbearable and there were days when we used our fp+ plus an additional 4 or so fast passes. We rode things multiple times (including 7DMT). We went with the flow and weregistration very flexible. Would do that week again in a heartbeat!

 

[Minnesota!]

My wife hates crowds and would rather be at the pool. So it's more about keeping peace in the family. We arrive at RD, get lunch about 12 and head back to the resort. Do the pool from 2-5. Get dressed and come back to the park and use our FP+s. Of course during our Spring Break trips we leave at 12 and don't come back at all. But leaving at 12 and coming back about 7 works for our summer trips.

We do the same. Rope Drop, till lunch. eat, then back to hotel for swimming, rest, etc. Shower or at least freshen up, and back to the park or somewhere around dinner. The hours of 12-5 or so really stink in the parks, IMO..

 

[subtchr]

And I went the last week of December 13 and the parks were a mad house. All of these dates were predicted to be 3-4's on the crowd calendar and were anything but. I'm glad you found it to be different.

While I agree with the gist of your posts in the thread, I would be floored if the last week of December on ANY year was a 3-4 on the crowd calendar.

 

[DVCcurious]

I like this idea, we go in August so you almost have to leave for a while because of the heat. Do you use fast pass, is it better to fast pass in the am or pm?

During summer trips we make 3 FP+s for 7-8, 8-9, and 9-10. Then we have lots to do at night with short waits. The waits aren't a problem in the morning. During Spring Break we make our FP+s from 10-11AM, 11-12PM and 12-1PM and then we leave the park for good after our last FP+ at noon. We get to MK at 7AM for EMH so that's 5 hours at the park which is enough for us.

 

[notfrostyjosh]

Good news. Weekend is over and crowds are down significantly (as expected). Animal Kingdom just closed. Here's the chart:

Other than the uhhhh 100-minute posted wait at Primeval Whirl, it looks pretty good. Can't beat walk-on Everest in the dark.