Disney has been actively trying to pull people in during previously uncrowded times by extending Dates on parties, food and wine, and free dining. People will stay onsite and fill hotels and restaurants during free dining.
We are planning a trip the day after Christmas to New Years and I have been told the crowds are insane. We usually go at thanksgiving so we are used to some crowds.
I didn't start planning the trip until 90 days out and at first I was shocked at the availability of rooms, dining reservations and even fast passes during the week after Christmas in comparison to no availability at Thanksgiving. But, I figure the crowds will consist of a large number of locals who who are on Christmas break and who do not stay on site. Because disney doesn't offer a lot of discounts during this week, there will be a lot of families who do not stay on site. ( still I've heard that resorts are at least 85 Percent full - if they offered discounts they would not have enough rooms for everyone). However, I was able to secure a discount through a
travel agency as long as I was ok with a standard view room and we only had a choice of three resorts. My DD really wanted to stay at AOA again but there were no discounts and we were not willing to pay rack price for room and tickets and dining.
We expect the crowds to be huge. Hopefully using extra Magic hours, park hopper , fast passes, staying at the beach club and the fact that this is our fifth trip will make our plans doable .Usually crowds do not bother me so much. But my children are teenagers. If I had little ones, I would probably think differently.I guess what I am trying to say is that there are just so many variables that affect the crowds that it is hard to predict. The two things that would keep me away from Disney are the summer heat (done that once never again - I will take crowds over heat any day) and absolutely no discounts.