Average Day at MK- Rope Drop, Crowds, and Wait Times

[Jennytoon]

Maybe our hearts' content was less than others? But for my kids jostling back and forth from SplM and BTMRR (with stops at CBJ and LB) using FPs gave them big smiles. Granted - I didn't mention this - our party of 8 (at that time) could grab 8 FPs and easily give DH and the three oldest kids TWO rides each. We can still do that, right? Take off our bands and hand them to them?

Not only can you still do that, but I think you can even still request cards at check-in although they are not given out by default. That makes it even easier to hand off the rides, as the cards don't have to go on and off a wrist.

We were just there and started out with cards (since we were staying off-site). Even though my kids all got magicbands during the trip, we brought the cards with us every day just for the ease of FP+ redistribution (one of my kids is NOT a coaster fan).

 

[MikeandReneePlus5]

Thank you.
You provided a very nearly perfect example of how my family used to tour HS. The fact that FP+ shut us down with one fell swoop is exactly why we cancelled our trip in 2014. When you know what you like it is hard to convince yourself a trip that offers less than before is worth the $2500 in tix we needed to lay out. We are on track to give it a try next May knowing we will have a lesser experience. But I don't have that warm-fuzzy-feeling I used to get when we planned a trip. I keep repeating to myself, "It's better than nothing, right?" I won't have to decide for sure until about 70 days out when I place my UCT order...

Yes, you are for sure the visitor effected most by FP+.

I can say last week it was possible to ride BTMRR and SM multiple times in a row at about 9am. Meaning 3 times for BTMRR and 2 for splash. Without FP+. So you can probably do that and use your FP+ for SM.

But that's not gonna happen for 7DMT. You can get one at park open and one more with FP+ but after that you'd hvae to wait.

I said earlier in the thread it's still easy to get 2 or 3 rides and we found that to be true, but not for all headliners on the same day. At Epcot and DHS you have to target one of them and then target a different one another day to get multiple rides without waiting.

Hopefully you'll still have a great time...my crew was content with riding all the biggies multiple times during the week...not each day. But we love the meet and greets and we love eating and strolling world showcase and seeing the shows etc. if your crew doesn't ebjoy those things as much it could be disappointing!

A final thought is time of year is key. Last week was great...it seemed to us crowds were pretty low. I routinely saw 5 and 10 min waits towards the end of many nights on big rides.

We've done the power user thing and enjoyed it, now we've done this and we still had a fantastic time. And I enjoyed preplanning and not doing the whole collecting paper FP thing. It always added a little stress to my day watching return windows, maximizing how many we held at one time. We got good at it but I didn't miss it all that much.

 

[momof2n2]

Yes, you are for sure the visitor effected most by FP+.

I can say last week it was possible to ride BTMRR and SM multiple times in a row at about 9am. Meaning 3 times for BTMRR and 2 for splash. Without FP+. So you can probably do that and use your FP+ for SM.

But that's not gonna happen for 7DMT. You can get one at park open and one more with FP+ but after that you'd hvae to wait.

I said earlier in the thread it's still easy to get 2 or 3 rides and we found that to be true, but not for all headliners on the same day. At Epcot and DHS you have to target one of them and then target a different one another day to get multiple rides without waiting.

Hopefully you'll still have a great time...my crew was content with riding all the biggies multiple times during the week...not each day. But we love the meet and greets and we love eating and strolling world showcase and seeing the shows etc. if your crew doesn't ebjoy those things as much it could be disappointing!

A final thought is time of year is key. Last week was great...it seemed to us crowds were pretty low. I routinely saw 5 and 10 min waits towards the end of many nights on big rides.

We've done the power user thing and enjoyed it, now we've done this and we still had a fantastic time. And I enjoyed preplanning and not doing the whole collecting paper FP thing. It always added a little stress to my day watching return windows, maximizing how many we held at one time. We got good at it but I didn't miss it all that much.

We plan to be there May 8 - 14 next year, but only one day per park & 2 at MK.

 

[itchin2go]

I can say last week it was possible to ride BTMRR and SM multiple times in a row at about 9am. Meaning 3 times for BTMRR and 2 for splash. Without FP+. So you can probably do that and use your FP+ for SM.

But that's not gonna happen for 7DMT. You can get one at park open and one more with FP+ but after that you'd hvae to wait.

We did BTMRR twice in a row at rope drop. That's not our typical m.o., but there was NO ONE there - Thanksgiving week, no less - an utter ghost town. The RUSH for A&E and SDMT have had the positive side effect of clearing out other areas of the park. We could have ridden it again, but wanted to move onto Splash, which we probably could have ridden several times. So yeah - maybe there's a pot of gold waiting at rope drop? *fingers crossed* Other parks are going to be more difficult, I think.

 

[Planogirl]

I respectfully disagree.

WDW is not cheap, but for me WDW is in the "you get what you pay for" category.

I was continually blown away by how top notch everything is. The stage shows are just fantastic (the new Frozen thing is a hoot, those Arendelle historians are hysterical. And it snows! lol. FOTLK/F!/Beauty..all excellent). the character interactions are consistently excellent. We watched Voices of America in Epcot and the Philharmonic band in MK and they just give you chills with how talented these folks are! My son is in band and a pretty good trumpeter and he was just blown away.

The fireworks are brilliant..Wishes, Illuminations (we had the privilege of seeing Symphony in the Stars and it was just incredible). Fantasyland looks amazing...from the Tangled area through to Pinnochios house it just pops with color and theming. The 7DMT is wonderfully themed and just a whole lot of fun to ride. BOG is wonderful inside...the snow falling outside the windows is mesmerizing and engrossing. You *feel* like you are in a mountain chapeau.

We were at WL this trip and the place is sparkling. The pool design is amazing - I had never realized there are 3 separate pump systems, one for the waterfall, one for the pool, and another for the stream leading out of the pool into Bay Lake. Roaring Forks was reliably good (they added flatbreads since we'd been there last).

We ate at Cali Grill and the service and food were both tip-top. My teens were so impressed and it pleased me so much to treat them to such a fancy dinner.

The new Poly lobby is gorgeous and Trader Sam's is a home run (albeit small).

I could go on and on. I am not meaning to sound like a fanboy but as far as pure entertainment options there really isn't anything that can compare to WDW. They pull out all the stops.

I think they know the model: dazzle them. And they will keep spending and keep coming back. It works!

Keep in mind that we're all dazzled by different things. Some of those things that you listed either mean nothing to me or I don't think that they're topnotch. However other things that you do not mention actual do dazzle me so it's all good.

(Plus you do sound like a fanboy but there's nothing wrong with that. )

 

[cakebaker]

We did BTMRR twice in a row at rope drop. That's not our typical m.o., but there was NO ONE there - Thanksgiving week, no less - an utter ghost town. The RUSH for A&E and SDMT have had the positive side effect of clearing out other areas of the park.

We found this to be true on both our trips last year in August and October. We walked on to every ride for the first hour and even after that the lines were short, crowds were light for at least another hour. When you add in an emh morning, it really gives you a lot of time to enjoy everything else but SDMT and A&E. We're hoping it's still true.

 

[Planogirl]

I know I'm going to regret this.

I run easywdw.com - a site that gets over 850,000 visitors/month. I write the highest rated Walt Disney World guidebook on Amazon of all time (of all time) and have visited the theme parks well over 500 times over the last five years. I can also pull up those wait times charts for any park, any day, all day, for the last couple of years. Tens of thousands of people have used my crowd calendars, cheat sheets, etc. So I have a lot of experience with this sort of thing.

FP+ has affected wait times in a variety of ways.

The biggest change is in secondary attractions that didn't historically offer FastPass+. FP+ is, in essence, priority boarding for those that have it. So if you have 1,000 people in line at Haunted Mansion and Haunted Mansion moves through 2,000 people/hour, your wait would be 30 minutes if you were the 1,001st person in line. If you have that same 1,000 people in line, but 200 of them have FP+, your wait would still be 30 minutes because you're still behind 1,000 people. The reason the wait is longer is because while you're waiting, 200 more people with FP+ arrive after you. And because they have priority boarding, they will be seated and ride before you. So instead of being behind 1,000 people, you're now behind 1,200 people and your wait is longer because of it.

FastPass+ has its biggest impact on days with higher attendance because more FP+ are distributed to more people. If there are 10,000 people all selecting 3 FP+, you have a total of 30,000 FP+. If there are 30,000 people all selecting FP+, you have 90,000 FP+. And because there are a limited number of high priority FP+ at the major attractions, the people that choose later will have fewer options and will be selecting lower priority FP+ choices because that's what's remaining in inventory. But they will still have FP+ for those low priority attractions, arrive after you, and board before you. And because of that, you will wait longer. The 4th FP+ thing has also "helped" increase waits. Just yesterday I got a 4th FP+ for Living with the Land around 1:15pm for 1:25pm-2:25pm. The posted wait was 30 minutes and there were hundreds of people in line. I boarded in under five minutes, bypassing all of those people that arrived before me. And they will wait longer because of it.

But FP+ is affecting wait times more and more on "less crowded" days because more people are privy to FP+ because Disney is making such a big deal out of it. And with 4th and subsequent FP+ opportunities via kiosk, you see more and more cases of maximum FP+ distribution, even for the lowest priority attractions. And because there is some disconnect between wait times and what FP+ are available, people are more likely to make blind decisions on which FP+ they select. Back in the days of legacy FASTPASS, you might arrive at DINOSAUR, see a 10-minute wait, and just get in line instead of pulling those FASTPASSes. Now, you have to select that DINOSAUR FP+ from a kiosk no closer than Disney Outfitters in front of the Tree of Life. And because you don't know the wait time, you might select DINOSAUR even if it has a 10-minute wait because you don't know it has a 10-minute wait. And when you arrive and see the 10-minute wait, most people are still going to use their FP+. And people in standby wait longer because all those people that arrived after them have priority boarding.

So while it might not make a lot of sense to get FP+ for Journey into Imagination, somebody will still select FP+ for that attraction because it might be the only thing left and it makes a lot more sense to get something than to get nothing. So when you show up at 1pm for Journey into Imagination and there are 100 people in front of you in standby, another 100 people might arrive with FP+ and they will all board before you. So in essence, you are waiting behind 200 people instead of 100. With legacy FASTPASS, Journey into Imagination would not have allowed priority boarding like that. And the 100 people that arrived after you would board after you, resulting in a shorter wait.

This seems like it should be easy to understand.

The other major effect FP+ has had is how quickly lines develop, particularly at secondary attractions that didn't offer FP+, but also at the priority attractions. Legacy FASTPASS return times generally started at 9:40am, then once 9:05am hit, they were distributed for 9:45am-10:45am, and after that, 9:50am-10:50am etc. So those that arrived first thing in the morning could pull legacy FASTPASS for the earliest return windows, and also had 40+ minutes to tour the legacy FASTPASS attractions before FASTPASS users began to arrive with their paper tickets around 10am. And because relatively few people were around to pull those 9:40am-10:40am FASTPASSes, you had relatively low distribution numbers and fewer people returning between 10am-11am with FASTPASSes in hand than say, 3pm-4pm.

With FP+, there will be people arriving right at 9am with FP+ because that's their first window. And while we could argue that it doesn't make any sense to use FP+ at Big Thunder Mountain at 9:15am, there will still be people doing just that because that's what was available and they "don't know any better." So if you get to Big Thunder at 9:45am and there are 100 people in front of you, you'd wait behind those 100 people under legacy FASTPASS. Maybe a handful of FASTPASS returners would get back there that soon, but it would be a negligible number. Under FP+, you have as many as a thousand people visiting Big Thunder between 9am-10am with FP+ in hand. And a lot of those FP+ returners will arrive after you and ride before you. And because of that, you will wait longer.

Those two things alone have rocked theme park touring strategy. The mornings are more of a rush and you will wait longer. And secondary attractions that historically didn't develop sizable waits until much later in the day now develop longer waits, earlier, due to FastPass+ returners.

I wrote a post around this time last year comparing posted waits before and after FP+ implementation: http://www.easywdw.com/uncategorize...cting-wait-times-at-disney-world-attractions/. While it's no secret that posted waits aren't always indicative of actual waits, the day-to-day trends are much more telling. And when you have millions of numbers to work with, you can make some relatively definitive conclusions based on that data, in addition to the hundreds of visits that I suppose are "anecdotal" by some definitions. Not perfect conclusions, but ones based on more data and experience than you'll find anywhere else.

That's my experience based on a few hundred visits and millions of wait times, anyway.

Thanks so much for the reasonable explanation. Thanks for your fabulous website too.

 

[Planogirl]

I am glad that we are beyond the stage when DS was young and would discover a ride and want to ride it over and over again. I always indulged him because I liked the rides he picked but it sounds like that would be hard to do now.

 

[cakebaker]

I am glad that we are beyond the stage when DS was young and would discover a ride and want to ride it over and over again. I always indulged him because I liked the rides he picked but it sounds like that would be hard to do now.

My grandson at 3, is at that age but since we park hop and make multiple trips to each park, it's not hard to let him ride the ones he loves many times over. We have SDMT scheduled with fp+ 4 times plus we'll most likely ride it during the 2 emh evenings we'll have. Park hopping, with multiple trips to each park over the course of a trip solves a myriad of problems if one can make use of it. But yes, I can see where that could be a problem and require using standby more than one would care to.

 

[Planogirl]

My grandson at 3, is at that age but since we park hop and make multiple trips to each park, it's not hard to let him ride the ones he loves many times over. We have SDMT scheduled with fp+ 4 times plus we'll most likely ride it during the 2 emh evenings we'll have. Park hopping, with multiple trips to each park over the course of a trip solves a myriad of problems if one can make use of it. But yes, I can see where that could be a problem and require using standby more than one would care to.

He just simply wouldn't be able to do it like before. We rode Spaceship Earth and the Haunted Mansion literally countless times which I was fine with. Food Rocks on the other hand....

 

[Mickey&Mouse]

I am glad that we are beyond the stage when DS was young and would discover a ride and want to ride it over and over again. I always indulged him because I liked the rides he picked but it sounds like that would be hard to do now.

This exact scenario happened to us several times last week with our DS6. He absolutely loved SDMT and wanted to immediately re-ride which we couldn't do. One night we squeezed in an extra SDMT at 10:45- just before park close. BTMR and Space were slightly easier to go on for repeats, depending on the day and available FP's. He also loved TT but we were only able to ride it once in the morning since the FP's were gone so early and the standby line stayed around 60-75 mins most of the day. So it was definitely a challenge with the repeats unfortunately.

 

[momof2n2]

He just simply wouldn't be able to do it like before. We rode Spaceship Earth and the Haunted Mansion literally countless times which I was fine with. Food Rocks on the other hand....

 

[momof2n2]

This exact scenario happened to us several times last week with our DS6. He absolutely loved SDMT and wanted to immediately re-ride which we couldn't do. One night we squeezed in an extra SDMT at 10:45- just before park close. BTMR and Space were slightly easier to go on for repeats, depending on the day and available FP's. He also loved TT but we were only able to ride it once in the morning since the FP's were gone so early and the standby line stayed around 60-75 mins most of the day. So it was definitely a challenge with the repeats unfortunately.

By the time we go next year it will have been five years since our last visit. Likely only my boys will really remember the reride-palooza we used to enjoy. Maybe I can give them some hush-money and have them help me convince their sisters that CoP and HoP rerides are where it's at. ??

 

[Jennytoon]

I know I'm going to regret this.

I run easywdw.com - a site that gets over 850,000 visitors/month. I write the highest rated Walt Disney World guidebook on Amazon of all time (of all time) and have visited the theme parks well over 500 times over the last five years. I can also pull up those wait times charts for any park, any day, all day, for the last couple of years. Tens of thousands of people have used my crowd calendars, cheat sheets, etc. So I have a lot of experience with this sort of thing.

FP+ has affected wait times in a variety of ways.

The biggest change is in secondary attractions that didn't historically offer FastPass+. FP+ is, in essence, priority boarding for those that have it. So if you have 1,000 people in line at Haunted Mansion and Haunted Mansion moves through 2,000 people/hour, your wait would be 30 minutes if you were the 1,001st person in line. If you have that same 1,000 people in line, but 200 of them have FP+, your wait would still be 30 minutes because you're still behind 1,000 people. The reason the wait is longer is because while you're waiting, 200 more people with FP+ arrive after you. And because they have priority boarding, they will be seated and ride before you. So instead of being behind 1,000 people, you're now behind 1,200 people and your wait is longer because of it.

FastPass+ has its biggest impact on days with higher attendance because more FP+ are distributed to more people. If there are 10,000 people all selecting 3 FP+, you have a total of 30,000 FP+. If there are 30,000 people all selecting FP+, you have 90,000 FP+. And because there are a limited number of high priority FP+ at the major attractions, the people that choose later will have fewer options and will be selecting lower priority FP+ choices because that's what's remaining in inventory. But they will still have FP+ for those low priority attractions, arrive after you, and board before you. And because of that, you will wait longer. The 4th FP+ thing has also "helped" increase waits. Just yesterday I got a 4th FP+ for Living with the Land around 1:15pm for 1:25pm-2:25pm. The posted wait was 30 minutes and there were hundreds of people in line. I boarded in under five minutes, bypassing all of those people that arrived before me. And they will wait longer because of it.

But FP+ is affecting wait times more and more on "less crowded" days because more people are privy to FP+ because Disney is making such a big deal out of it. And with 4th and subsequent FP+ opportunities via kiosk, you see more and more cases of maximum FP+ distribution, even for the lowest priority attractions. And because there is some disconnect between wait times and what FP+ are available, people are more likely to make blind decisions on which FP+ they select. Back in the days of legacy FASTPASS, you might arrive at DINOSAUR, see a 10-minute wait, and just get in line instead of pulling those FASTPASSes. Now, you have to select that DINOSAUR FP+ from a kiosk no closer than Disney Outfitters in front of the Tree of Life. And because you don't know the wait time, you might select DINOSAUR even if it has a 10-minute wait because you don't know it has a 10-minute wait. And when you arrive and see the 10-minute wait, most people are still going to use their FP+. And people in standby wait longer because all those people that arrived after them have priority boarding.

So while it might not make a lot of sense to get FP+ for Journey into Imagination, somebody will still select FP+ for that attraction because it might be the only thing left and it makes a lot more sense to get something than to get nothing. So when you show up at 1pm for Journey into Imagination and there are 100 people in front of you in standby, another 100 people might arrive with FP+ and they will all board before you. So in essence, you are waiting behind 200 people instead of 100. With legacy FASTPASS, Journey into Imagination would not have allowed priority boarding like that. And the 100 people that arrived after you would board after you, resulting in a shorter wait.

This seems like it should be easy to understand.

The other major effect FP+ has had is how quickly lines develop, particularly at secondary attractions that didn't offer FP+, but also at the priority attractions. Legacy FASTPASS return times generally started at 9:40am, then once 9:05am hit, they were distributed for 9:45am-10:45am, and after that, 9:50am-10:50am etc. So those that arrived first thing in the morning could pull legacy FASTPASS for the earliest return windows, and also had 40+ minutes to tour the legacy FASTPASS attractions before FASTPASS users began to arrive with their paper tickets around 10am. And because relatively few people were around to pull those 9:40am-10:40am FASTPASSes, you had relatively low distribution numbers and fewer people returning between 10am-11am with FASTPASSes in hand than say, 3pm-4pm.

With FP+, there will be people arriving right at 9am with FP+ because that's their first window. And while we could argue that it doesn't make any sense to use FP+ at Big Thunder Mountain at 9:15am, there will still be people doing just that because that's what was available and they "don't know any better." So if you get to Big Thunder at 9:45am and there are 100 people in front of you, you'd wait behind those 100 people under legacy FASTPASS. Maybe a handful of FASTPASS returners would get back there that soon, but it would be a negligible number. Under FP+, you have as many as a thousand people visiting Big Thunder between 9am-10am with FP+ in hand. And a lot of those FP+ returners will arrive after you and ride before you. And because of that, you will wait longer.

Those two things alone have rocked theme park touring strategy. The mornings are more of a rush and you will wait longer. And secondary attractions that historically didn't develop sizable waits until much later in the day now develop longer waits, earlier, due to FastPass+ returners.

I wrote a post around this time last year comparing posted waits before and after FP+ implementation: http://www.easywdw.com/uncategorize...cting-wait-times-at-disney-world-attractions/. While it's no secret that posted waits aren't always indicative of actual waits, the day-to-day trends are much more telling. And when you have millions of numbers to work with, you can make some relatively definitive conclusions based on that data, in addition to the hundreds of visits that I suppose are "anecdotal" by some definitions. Not perfect conclusions, but ones based on more data and experience than you'll find anywhere else.

That's my experience based on a few hundred visits and millions of wait times, anyway.

OK, I have dithered for hours about whether or not to post this -- and I hope this is not what you meant when you said you knew that you would regret your post.

Thank you very much for your insights and your experiences. There is no doubt that your credentials as a WDW expert are impeccable and I have personally gotten a great deal of information and value from your website. I'm a fan, thus my hesitation to post.

That said, you have given a very cogent explanation for why FP+ increases the wait time per 100 people in front of you in the standby line. That is a different statistic from the posted wait time. Your blog post showed an increase in wait times between Jan/Feb of 2013 and Jan/Feb of 2014. There is no question that the increase shown by this analysis correlated with the introduction of FP+, obviously they happened at the same time. However, I have not seen you show any evidence that I would consider convincingly demonstrates that FP+ is the cause of these changes in wait times, either all or in part when considered with other factors.

People confuse correlation with causation all the time, because it seems to make sense that if two things always happen at the same time, they should be related. But it's simply not true that one implies the other, and you have done here exactly what many are so frustrated by: you have claimed that the increase you see in wait times is the result of FP+ while ignoring all other factors that might have contributed to the observed result, including the increase in crowds. Please take note, I'm not saying that FP+ has not affected wait times, and I'm definitely not saying it hasn't affected individual experiences. I'm just saying that the information you provided in your post above and on your blog does not demonstrate that any increases in wait times are the result of FP+.

<ducking now>

 

[Mickey&Mouse]

By the time we go next year it will have been five years since our last visit. Likely only my boys will really remember the reride-palooza we used to enjoy. Maybe I can give them some hush-money and have them help me convince their sisters that CoP and HoP rerides are where it's at. ??

But the real question is just how convincing can they be and how much hush-money will it take? You may have to drain your bank account to get this accomplished.

 

[Planogirl]

OK, I have dithered for hours about whether or not to post this -- and I hope this is not what you meant when you said you knew that you would regret your post.

Thank you very much for your insights and your experiences. There is no doubt that your credentials as a WDW expert are impeccable and I have personally gotten a great deal of information and value from your website. I'm a fan, thus my hesitation to post.

That said, you have given a very cogent explanation for why FP+ increases the wait time per 100 people in front of you in the standby line. That is a different statistic from the posted wait time. Your blog post showed an increase in wait times between Jan/Feb of 2013 and Jan/Feb of 2014. There is no question that the increase shown by this analysis correlated with the introduction of FP+, obviously they happened at the same time. However, I have not seen you show any evidence that I would consider convincingly demonstrates that FP+ is the cause of these changes in wait times, either all or in part when considered with other factors.

People confuse correlation with causation all the time, because it seems to make sense that if two things always happen at the same time, they should be related. But it's simply not true that one implies the other, and you have done here exactly what many are so frustrated by: you have claimed that the increase you see in wait times is the result of FP+ while ignoring all other factors that might have contributed to the observed result, including the increase in crowds. Please take note, I'm not saying that FP+ has not affected wait times, and I'm definitely not saying it hasn't affected individual experiences. I'm just saying that the information you provided in your post above and on your blog does not demonstrate that any increases in wait times are the result of FP+.

<ducking now>

That's what these forums are all about IMO. Without hard stats from Disney there is no way to be exact about these things. All you can do is be as logical as possible IMO and I find Josh's logic very sound. Again, just an opinion of course.

 

[Stitchypoo2]

Thanks, Josh! Data is a nice thing to have at your disposal. It sure beats the "we never had to wait in a line at Christmas, July 4th or any other time the OP visited WDW" anecdotal evidence.

 

[Lisa loves Pooh]

Thanks, Josh! Data is a nice thing to have at your disposal. It sure beats the "we never had to wait in a line at Christmas, July 4th or any other time the OP visited WDW" anecdotal evidence.

I don't recall those claims.

 

[MikeandReneePlus5]

OK, I have dithered for hours about whether or not to post this -- and I hope this is not what you meant when you said you knew that you would regret your post.

Thank you very much for your insights and your experiences. There is no doubt that your credentials as a WDW expert are impeccable and I have personally gotten a great deal of information and value from your website. I'm a fan, thus my hesitation to post.

That said, you have given a very cogent explanation for why FP+ increases the wait time per 100 people in front of you in the standby line. That is a different statistic from the posted wait time. Your blog post showed an increase in wait times between Jan/Feb of 2013 and Jan/Feb of 2014. There is no question that the increase shown by this analysis correlated with the introduction of FP+, obviously they happened at the same time. However, I have not seen you show any evidence that I would consider convincingly demonstrates that FP+ is the cause of these changes in wait times, either all or in part when considered with other factors.

People confuse correlation with causation all the time, because it seems to make sense that if two things always happen at the same time, they should be related. But it's simply not true that one implies the other, and you have done here exactly what many are so frustrated by: you have claimed that the increase you see in wait times is the result of FP+ while ignoring all other factors that might have contributed to the observed result, including the increase in crowds. Please take note, I'm not saying that FP+ has not affected wait times, and I'm definitely not saying it hasn't affected individual experiences. I'm just saying that the information you provided in your post above and on your blog does not demonstrate that any increases in wait times are the result of FP+.

<ducking now>

It seems to me another factor indication causation is that Disney specifically planned to do this. Starting with enforcing the return times on the legacy FPs. they wanted to redistribute crowds within the parks. I think various statements made on conference calls and articles supports this (though I can't pull em up and link them right now).

Also, I think it's true that human nature dictates when you make something a choice some people will naturally choose it. So you have people choosing a FP+ for Living With Land or Figment or even HM and Pirates when they either would not have ridden it at all or just done it standby for the simple reason that it is sitting there as a choice when you go to book your 3 FP+ (which Disney reminds you about several times via emails and alerts on your MDE page so there's that too, they actively push the ride reservation system...it seems to me more than they ever pushed legacy FP).

 

[Lucius Best]

you have done here exactly what many are so frustrated by: you have claimed that the increase you see in wait times is the result of FP+ while ignoring all other factors that might have contributed to the observed result, including the increase in crowds.

Josh has done exactly what no one else has done here: compiled data, and provided a logical analysis.

You mention "other factors" besides crowd levels that might have contributed to changes in wait times, but I don't see the list of what you think those other factors might be.

I was curious about the increase in crowds, so I tried googling it. Does Disney even release attendance numbers broken down by park and by month? I could only find annual attendance numbers through 2013. Best I could do was Disney's 2nd Quarter Fiscal 2014 earnings report (covering Jan/Feb/Mar 2014): http://thewaltdisneycompany.com/sites/default/files/press-releases/pdfs/q2-fy14-earnings.pdf which says nothing about WDW attendance.

By comparison, press releases and web news articles for Q4 2014 and Q1 2015 talk about WDW record attendance, and a record quarterly attendance increase of 7%. Safe to assume that if there was a large attendance increase at WDW in Q2 2014, Disney might have mentioned it? Note that a 7% increase to a 15 minute wait time would make it 1 minute longer. I would also suspect a 7% increase in crowd levels to increase standby wait times across the park somewhat uniformly.

As for other factors when comparing wait times between Jan/Feb 2013 and Jan/Feb 2014, some possibilities would be ride additions, ride closures, holidays, special events, vastly different park hours? Any special discounts or weather events that would affect attendance? Major recent addition at MK was 7DMT, but that was May 2014? I believe Splash Mountain had extended refurbs both years? The study period doesn't include Easter, so it's not affected by Easter being earlier. I'm not aware of any huge differences. That's also the slowest time of the year, would a June/July comparison yield different results?

Regardless, I can't picture any of those other factors having as much of an effect on wait times as FP+.