Keeping Ukraine in our thoughts and prayers here

[RamblingMad]

An analist here in NL gave four possible outcomes (Written yesterday)

1. The wonder of Dnjepr
With equipment of NATO Ukraine will be able to stop the Russians at Dnjepr in the middle of the country.
Russia will start to realize that they are paying an extremely high price for a long and bloody war. Russia will be economically ruined and isolated.
Regretfully Putin will retreat due to pressure from his own people and the Russians.
Ukraine will be successful in becoming part of the EU.
It's unclear if Putin will change Russia into a full dictatorship or if the Russians will throw him out.

2. The swamp
After weeks of bloody fights in Kiev and other cities, Putin is able to overthrow the Ukraine government.
The Ukraine army and people do not surrender and will continue with a guerilla war in small groups. The Russian victory will turn out to be a false one.
Russian will be financially and morally on the edge with lots of casualties on their side.
After years of fighting (with Ukraine supported by EU) Russia's treasure chest will be empty and their economy ruined. Then they will retreat.
They will realize that they have their own Afghanistan. They started a war that couldn't be won. Putin's reputation will go down the drain and people will start to publically doubt him.

3. A new Iron Curtain
Kiev will give in to the pressure. With heavy weapons Russia has been able to gain control. The resistance against a puppet government in Ukraine will be brutally surpressed and the resistance is not able to withstand it.
However, Russia needs to stay in Ukraine with large numbers of soldiers and a new Iron Curtain will form the Baltic states via Poland and Romania.
Spite the resistance in his own country and the economic pain, Putin will be able to strengthen his own position.
The NATO countries will get even closer and Finland and Sweden will join as well. NATO troops and Russians stare at each other again over a border of barbed wire and mines. Afraid that any unexpected incident could turn into a world war.
Moscow is regular launching "Military exercises" and Russia's hybrid warfare is kicking into even higher gear.

4. War between NATO and Russia
The most dangerous.
a. NATO decides to establish a no fly zone over Ukraine. They don't want it now because it's too dangerous, but the influx of refugees causes that the West has to do something.
Russia are faced with accepting it without resistance or will deploy their aircrafts and air defenses against NATO's fighter jets. If this happens, it's only one large-scale clash between the two armies.

b. Russia will (intentional or not) hit a NATO country. With a still decreasing supply of precision weapons chances of a bombing 'by accident'. This will trigger a reaction by bringing down a plane, which triggers a counter reaction etc. Till we are in a war neither party can retreat from gracefully.

c. Putin has bigger plans than just Ukraine. After success in Ukraine he will focus on the Baltic states. NATO will not give in and Putin will start sending troops to the baltics.

It is unclear which of these scenarios is most likely in the fog of war is. It is clear, to the analist, that the war is not in favour of Putin. Putin hadnt expected the resistance nor that Zelinsky /Ukrainian people would be able to inspire and be supported by the Western people and governments. But it is not over yet and Putin still has some cards in his pocket.

My best guess is that Russia takes over Ukraine and chills.

Or we get a repeat of this one: https://history.com/this-day-in-history/5-day-long-russo-georgian-war-begins

 

[HeatherC]

Praying things don’t escalate but it looks like they may. Heartbreaking to watch and you feel so helpless.

 

[SirDuff]

Praying things don’t escalate but it looks like they may. Heartbreaking to watch and you feel so helpless.

It’s awful.

I’m part of a team working to help maintain access to essential COVID-19 tools and essential health services (I‘m a very minor cog), but even that doesn’t feel like much.

 

[Kennywood]

At his core, Putin is simply a bully. He's been a bully in every stage of his life and to all the people in his life. He's also vain, childish, and petulant. Right now, he's getting frustrated that the Ukrainians haven't simply surrendered to his will. (How dare they!) He's getting frustrated with his military that they haven't captured the entire country in a week.

He's going to escalate things WAY out of proportion. (He mentions nuclear weapons but even he's not that stupid.) So, Russian bombers and missiles will soon do what his ground troops are unable (or perhaps unwilling) to do. They will utterly devastate Ukraine. All the while, the rest of the world will wag their finger and "Tsk...tsk...tsk..."

As one of the richest men in the world, he couldn't care less about sanctions. A schoolyard bully isn't going to stop bullying because someone told an adult and then he had his toys taken away. (He has plenty of other toys.) Daring to oppose his will only infuriates the bully. The only thing a bully will truly understand are severe consequences to him personally.

 

[Christine]

Which #3? There are two #3's.

The main bullet #3 not the sub bullet of #4 (although I see that poster fixed it).

 

[Neapolitan Ice Cream]

I am truly TERRIFIED of is WW3. If someone stands up to Putin, what's to stop him firing a missile at their capitol? And it escalating from there? What if he really DOES go nuts and uses one of hundreds of his nukes? His targeted nation may respond in kind. Where does it end?

 

[Lsdolphin]

I liked the response of about a dozen Ukrainian soldiers who were on a small island and were ordered to surrender.

You can probably google it. Snake Island.

Hoping they are still alive...

 

[Pea-n-Me]

View attachment 651765

This is beautiful. Thanks for sharing it!

 

[disneychick0412]

I am truly TERRIFIED of is WW3. If someone stands up to Putin, what's to stop him firing a missile at their capitol? And it escalating from there? What if he really DOES go nuts and uses one of hundreds of his nukes? His targeted nation may respond in kind. Where does it end?

Same here. I'm obsessed with news coverage/social media postings. I know its not healthy but I can't help it!

 

[punkin]

I am Dutch, my phone is Dutch, my autocorrect is Dutch. We spell it with an i.

You're fine. Some people are just pedantic. I thought your post was insightful.

 

[punkin]

I am truly TERRIFIED of is WW3. If someone stands up to Putin, what's to stop him firing a missile at their capitol? And it escalating from there? What if he really DOES go nuts and uses one of hundreds of his nukes? His targeted nation may respond in kind. Where does it end?

And what's to stop him from doing it anyway?

 

[Neapolitan Ice Cream]

And what's to stop him from doing it anyway?

I know

 

[punkin]

Hoping they are still alive...

They're not as far as I can tell.

 

[longboard55]

I would guess Putin expected the US to engage and that is how we could sell it to his people. They are not going for this, I give him a week max. No one wants this other than Putin

 

[jrmasm]

Hoping they are still alive...

https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/28/europe/snake-island-ukraine-russia-survivors-alive-intl/index.html

 

[ronandannette]

https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/28/europe/snake-island-ukraine-russia-survivors-alive-intl/index.html

I was coming to post the same report from a national Canadian network. Alive but captured - not sure what happens to them next.
https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/the-de...-alive-and-well-says-ukraine-s-navy-1.5799288

Hoping they are still alive...

They're not as far as I can tell.

 

[Planogirl]

The Belarus leader had a picture showing him standing in front of a white board. It showed Ukraine divided into four parts and arrows indicating attacks against Moldova. This is not good.

 

[RamblingMad]

I am truly TERRIFIED of is WW3. If someone stands up to Putin, what's to stop him firing a missile at their capitol? And it escalating from there? What if he really DOES go nuts and uses one of hundreds of his nukes? His targeted nation may respond in kind. Where does it end?

My biggest fear is if China joins Putin, not nuclear weapons.

 

[dvcgirl67]

It's just an incredible tragedy unfolding, and a travesty that we aren't doing more to help. I get it...I understand the consequences, but Putin is a bully...and bullies don't stop until someone steps up and punches them in the face. I know it isn't as simple as that, but in many ways...it is. Are we going to let Putin continue this behavior after he destroys Ukraine and tries to rule it with an occupying force...because many Ukrainians are willing to give their lives to fight for their country? How about when he moves on Romania, Bulgaria...Poland? If we want to look at how this is going to upend the world economy look no further than the price of oil. JP Morgan came out today and said if Russian supply disruption continues that oil could hit $185 a barrel. Is that $6 a gallon...$7...here in the States? I'm not sure, but Americans aren't ready for that.

I don't know, but by coincidence, DH and I have been watching a WW II documentary and it's just making us feel ashamed that the NATO countries are essentially standing by and watching this unfold. We're not doing enough....period.

 

[Buzz Rules]

My guess is this (and I hope I’m wrong):
1. Ukraine will be in Russian control but not conquered. Guerrilla warfare will continue (like the Russian-Afghanistan war) for the next decade.

2. Putin, to gain what he perceives as easier victories, will go into Georgia and Moldova within the next two months while still fighting the Ukrainians. NATO still won’t send troops since neither are members of the alliance. Once this is complete, China will try and take Taiwan. The USA will try to gather support for Taiwan from Asian Pacific allies but NATO won’t even respond due Taiwan’s unique status and how much Europe trades with China. AUKUS and the QUAD alliances can only do so much but I feel we are heading towards a WW1/WW2 mix of repeating history. The countries closest to either crises will only really focus the ones closest to them. I’m convinced we may very well be heading towards a bigger conflict.

But I will say, I don’t think the world’s most destructive weapons will ever be used again by anyone. China and Russia still need to trade with us to have an economy. They will never destroy their trading partners.

I continue to live my life as best I can and always pray for peace. That’s all anyone can do at this point. Worrying about the what ifs is not a positive thing for the mind, body, or soul. Love each other, learn to work with each other, and always accept people for who they are. World peace is possible, we just need to have more faith in humanity instead of greed. ☮