RamblingMad
I'm an 80s kid too.
- Joined
- Mar 29, 2019
An analist here in NL gave four possible outcomes (Written yesterday)
1. The wonder of Dnjepr
With equipment of NATO Ukraine will be able to stop the Russians at Dnjepr in the middle of the country.
Russia will start to realize that they are paying an extremely high price for a long and bloody war. Russia will be economically ruined and isolated.
Regretfully Putin will retreat due to pressure from his own people and the Russians.
Ukraine will be successful in becoming part of the EU.
It's unclear if Putin will change Russia into a full dictatorship or if the Russians will throw him out.
2. The swamp
After weeks of bloody fights in Kiev and other cities, Putin is able to overthrow the Ukraine government.
The Ukraine army and people do not surrender and will continue with a guerilla war in small groups. The Russian victory will turn out to be a false one.
Russian will be financially and morally on the edge with lots of casualties on their side.
After years of fighting (with Ukraine supported by EU) Russia's treasure chest will be empty and their economy ruined. Then they will retreat.
They will realize that they have their own Afghanistan. They started a war that couldn't be won. Putin's reputation will go down the drain and people will start to publically doubt him.
3. A new Iron Curtain
Kiev will give in to the pressure. With heavy weapons Russia has been able to gain control. The resistance against a puppet government in Ukraine will be brutally surpressed and the resistance is not able to withstand it.
However, Russia needs to stay in Ukraine with large numbers of soldiers and a new Iron Curtain will form the Baltic states via Poland and Romania.
Spite the resistance in his own country and the economic pain, Putin will be able to strengthen his own position.
The NATO countries will get even closer and Finland and Sweden will join as well. NATO troops and Russians stare at each other again over a border of barbed wire and mines. Afraid that any unexpected incident could turn into a world war.
Moscow is regular launching "Military exercises" and Russia's hybrid warfare is kicking into even higher gear.
4. War between NATO and Russia
The most dangerous.
a. NATO decides to establish a no fly zone over Ukraine. They don't want it now because it's too dangerous, but the influx of refugees causes that the West has to do something.
Russia are faced with accepting it without resistance or will deploy their aircrafts and air defenses against NATO's fighter jets. If this happens, it's only one large-scale clash between the two armies.
b. Russia will (intentional or not) hit a NATO country. With a still decreasing supply of precision weapons chances of a bombing 'by accident'. This will trigger a reaction by bringing down a plane, which triggers a counter reaction etc. Till we are in a war neither party can retreat from gracefully.
c. Putin has bigger plans than just Ukraine. After success in Ukraine he will focus on the Baltic states. NATO will not give in and Putin will start sending troops to the baltics.
It is unclear which of these scenarios is most likely in the fog of war is. It is clear, to the analist, that the war is not in favour of Putin. Putin hadnt expected the resistance nor that Zelinsky /Ukrainian people would be able to inspire and be supported by the Western people and governments. But it is not over yet and Putin still has some cards in his pocket.
My best guess is that Russia takes over Ukraine and chills.
Or we get a repeat of this one: https://history.com/this-day-in-history/5-day-long-russo-georgian-war-begins