Hurricane Irma?

[xWilliam]

GFS 06z model keeping in line with the 00z models from earlier. Again 06z is not as accurate as 00z and 12z, but the trend staying east is holding for now. Hoping the best for 12z reading for both GFS and ECMWF models

 

[HarperLeigh]

So we've had a few days thinking and worrying and we're still going, I still seem to be the only one obscenely frightened by this but our travel agents and airline both say Orlando is safe to land tomorrow and that we shouldn't get the worst of it. But I'm sceptical of them.

Orlando airport will be fine tomorrow and running normal operations. If you can today, buy some supplies to bring with you - bread, PB, jelly/jam, flashlights and other non perishable food items.

 

[Jamie Collingwood]

We are due to arrive Sunday at 2pm.

Really not sure what to do but will probably be a game time decision. If it hits the orlando area early Monday morning, we might just ride it out given the rest of the week should be good.

 

[AngiTN]

A weather station in Barbuda that was recording weather conditions for the National Weather Service (wind speed and direction every six minutes) has just fallen silent: its last posting was at 12:12am AST, when gusts of 87 mph were logged.

The center of Irma is presently located less about 50 miles east-southeast of the island of Barbuda and is still moving west-northwestward at about 15 mph.

Irma's maximum sustained winds are steady at 185 mph

And here is a graphic that simplifies the upcoming critical weekend changes in Irma's direction.

As it indicates, steering currents will be changing, which will cause Irma to turn more northerly. But there are wide disagreements in all the various models of exactly where that turn will occur. It could be anywhere from the gulf side of Florida to somewhere in the Atlantic east of Florida, with most models currently projecting somewhere in the middle of that range . And the direction of that move won't become clear until sometime next weekend.

A

You know, this is all anyone has been saying since you started posting here, that no one knows for sure what's happening yet. You seemed dead set on just focusing on the fact that some models you individually don't agree with just are wrong and that the path was more certain. At least that's how your posts came across. If that was not your intent then sorry. This post is more reasonable and basically saying the same things most others are saying, there is more not known than there is known and a lot of models still showing a large range of direction, none of which are more right or more wrong than another. It does appear fewer models showing path through FL and more models showing paths in the Atlantic, so odds may be moving it East but still unknown. And that's the bottom line really.

 

[DrunkJam]

It's funny you say this the other day I was thinking "Why don't I just make bread if they are out of bread at the store" but then it dawned on me I might be out of power, but yesterday I said to myself "Self, your gonna want hot food instead of just PB&J, why not get a little smoky joe, the storm will last last a day or two, if its a week with no power you can cook outside" So I bought a little grill and charcoal and fluid. Now I'm wondering if I can bake bread in that little grill.

Gonna have to go do some internet research

Yeah, it does rely on power and water (although, it is possible to make fire bread) but, it is *a* possibility if the stores are massively out of everything

 

[Jimmy Mouse]

Got in touch with Disney this morning. We booked (bounce back) from our room last November and got a HUGE discount. We did not get free dining but the 35% off the whole trip made it less than getting free dining. Now if I decide to move our stay just one week it adds almost $4k to our trip. I think were gonna head down at 3am (hopefully the roads wont be bad at this time) and hope for the best. We have priority check in at 10:00am at CR.

 

[ITALIANNYC]

Not to be rude, but the people thinking if this thing hits, that they will be able to order things to be delivered to them while at the resort are kinda insane.

If it hits dead on, that is not going to happen. I have family right to the west of orlando. There is no water, gas is hard to come by.

Dont count on those things being available to you.

Be smart, Be safe, and hopefully this thing can pass by without issue

 

[AngiTN]

I don't live in a hurricane zone, but here when people stock up on bread and milk it is when a snow storm is coming. I'm assuming bread for sandwiches and milk for the kiddos, and since it is snowing you can just put perishables in a cooler outside is the power goes out. For a hurricane this would be terrible advice.

Yeah but people stock up on milk and bread even when they don't usually drink milk or eat bread. There's a primal instinct in us Southerner's genes that turn on when we hear Snow in the forecast and it makes us buy milk, even when we don't drink it. No one can explain it.

 

[mls80skate]

Called at 701am. On hold one hour. CM said they are giving 7 day grace period from arrival date if trip impacted by hurricane. Trip was Sept 8 to 16. I cancelled with no penalty fee.

Sorry but what is meant by the 7 day grace period? We are scheduled to arrive 9/8 and are still sitting on the fence about what to do. Does this mean they won't charge the $200 cancelation fee if we cancel now (or the full amount if we cancel tomorrow)? We are really trying to wait until the last minuet to see what this storm does but don't want to be out all of our $$ too. Thanks for your help.

 

[AngiTN]

We are due to arrive Sept 8, and normally shop Public and or Whole Foods on the way to our resort. Seeing all the limited selections, anyone considering garden grocer?

You do realize Garden Grocer goes to Publix or other local grocery store to shop. If it's gone, it's gone. They can't get it either.

 

[ITALIANNYC]

Yeah but people stock up on milk and bread even when they don't usually drink milk or eat bread. There's a primal instinct in us Southerner's genes that turn on when we hear Snow in the forecast and it makes us buy milk, even when we don't drink it. No one can explain it.

I just don't see buying milk in the hot of summer for this, when it will probably go bad in a day or two.. Thats just me lol

 

[RedM94]

You do realize Garden Grocer goes to Publix or other local grocery store to shop. If it's gone, it's gone. They can't get it either.

Yes, I fully understand how Garden Grocer works. I do not know if they shop ahead or day of. For example if they shop ahead, my chances may be better.

 

[Calee]

Dumb question I'm sure, but what is the benefit to calling to change dates as opposed to doing it online?

Also, has anyone who was staying at CBR with the renovation gift cards been able to move dates and keep the gift cards? Due to my husbands job we can't go until May if we don't go next week. I'm on hold right now and am planning on modifying dates, but just wondering what other people's experiences are.

 

[HarperLeigh]

Sure, but we are taking rain and some wind versus a hurricane. There will be a sizeable difference, so how about we don't try to scare people?

Hurricane force winds (185 mph) currently extend 50 plus miles out from the eye. Tropical storm force winds (39mph to 73mph) currently extend 175 miles out from the eye. This storm is the strongest ever recorded in the Atlantic basin.

Knowledge is a good thing in situations such as these.

 

[AngiTN]

Super frustrating, huh? Have a trip planned for Night of Joy for my family, and trying to decide what to do is really hard with the lack of information Disney is putting out there. Family leaves tomorrow morning, but no word on cancellations of the concert, or anything in regards to Irma.

I think the reason is they still just don't know enough about where it's going to make a cancellation call. As frustrating as it is. But they can't make a call about things they don't know about yet.

 

[Tonyz]

So it seems more and more likely that Orlando isn't gonna feel anything until probably Sunday. I still think I'm gonna leave Saturday just to be safe. I would hate to end a great vacation (I've been here less than 24 hours and it's already one of my best trips) in a crappy way.

 

[ITALIANNYC]

Yes, I fully understand how Garden Grocer works. I do not know if they shop ahead or day of. For example if they shop ahead, my chances may be better.

Publix is not stocked with anything needed for the hurricane as of now. Lines go around the block right now. I would not rely on Garden Grocer

 

[Tonyz]

Surely Disney will give me a refund on that last night, right?

 

[SgtTibbs]

Yeah but people stock up on milk and bread even when they don't usually drink milk or eat bread. There's a primal instinct in us Southerner's genes that turn on when we hear Snow in the forecast and it makes us buy milk, even when we don't drink it. No one can explain it.

I prefer tortilla over bread in emergencies. It has a longer shelf life and is easy to pack/transport.

 

[AngiTN]

Yes, I fully understand how Garden Grocer works. I do not know if they shop ahead or day of. For example if they shop ahead, my chances may be better.

Gonna depend on what you ordered. If it's got any perishables they they are not going to shop till it's time to deliver. If it's all shelf items then maybe they'll go early and combine you with another order