VDH Unit and Sales Tracker

[superlarz]

So lovely! You’ll love your tour. I could move into the 1 bedroom

I stayed in a 1br last week and can say that i wholeheartedly agree

 

[AstroBlasters]

I stayed in a 1br last week and can say that i wholeheartedly agree

Did you use the dishwasher?

 

[superlarz]

Did you use the dishwasher?

I did not personally load or start the dishwasher but members of my party did use it

 

[noisycricket]

We used the dishwasher during our stay. Totally fine-- better than the really old one that seemed on its last legs at VGC.

 

[NorCalFanatic]

We used the dishwasher 3X on our April trip with no issues other than asking them to bring up more detergent for it as there was only one pod when we checked into the room (they really need more plates/flatware in the rooms, we wouldn’t run it as much)

 

[ehh]

Working on the April and 'First year' updates today, been traveling and dealing with real life stuff.

I do want to highlight that it appears DVD declared more inventory on May 9, 2024. I have no idea what they declared without purchasing a paper copy of the documents (which cannot be paid for online), and I'm not sure I'm going to purchase a copy.

One thing that would sway me is if I have a decent way to upload it so everyone can read it. If I were to scan it, does DISBoards allow for a 17pg PDF upload? Or is there a better place to upload it?

 

[ehh]

Monthly update!

Total points recorded as of April 30th: ~658k points (20.2% of all points).
Points recorded in April: ~20.0k points.

Just under 20k points recorded in April, 19,988 by my estimates. An improvement over March (16.2k) but still the 3rd lowest month ever for VDH.

Despite prices going up to $239/pt on Feb 1, still seeing a trickle of $230/pt contracts being recorded in April, with 31 of the 120 deeds being more likely to be $230 rather than $239, based on the recording tax paid.

At the current rate, VDH will sell out in a whopping 130 months, or 10.8 years from now...that's early/mid-2035!

The April 1 price/incentive updates are our first indications that maybe DVD wants to pick up the pace a bit as 200+ point contracts are now available below pre-sales pricing, as long as you qualify for the Welcome Home incentive, but there wasn't a statistically-confident uptick in larger contracts (at least not yet).

As of April 30th, ~22.3% of points are declared and at least ~20.2% of the resort has been sold. That leaves about 2% of headroom, roughly 70k points, before more Units must be declared. It appears that DVD took the plunge on May 9, though I don't have the declaration details at this time.

Something I noted last three months but continues to be a thorn to sales monitoring is a change OCRW made. Previously, OCRW would publish the Lot Number, the Transfer Tax Amount, and the Unit #. Now they just post Transfer Tax and Unit #, making it harder to differentiate VGC sales from VDH (which have different lot numbers). Yes, DVC has been selling a trickle of VGC this entire time.

In fact, while I haven't been tracking VGC sales I think there's actually been an uptick in the sales rate (or at least I feel like I'm deleting more spreadsheet rows as being more-likely-VGC-than-not).

DVD also increased the base price for VDH, which also has an impact to sales monitoring. Without getting too inside baseball, OCRW doesn't post how many points are sold, just the Transfer Tax paid. Transfer Tax is proportional to the pre-incentive price of the contract. So a 150pt contract at a $230/pt base price would show up as $37.95 of Transfer Tax, but at the new $239/pt base price it shows up as $39.60. But $39.60 was also a valid tax amount before for a 155pt or 156pt contract, so discerning whether a contract is on the new pricing or old pricing is a bit of a judgement call currently.

I estimate 89 of the 120 contracts recorded this month were at the higher $239/pt. I'm a bit surprised that 31 of 120 had such a delayed closing that they qualified for the older pricing--the price changed Feb 1!

I'll do my best to take educated guesses on the contract size, but there have definitely been some challenges.

Spoiler: Challenging/interesting contract recordings this month

I figure most people won't care about this so gonna bury this into a spoiler, but some contracts recorded this month were fairly interesting from my perspective.

Feb Contract 1 - $48.40 Transfer Tax
Never seen this amount before. For $230/pt it works out to 190pt or 191pt and for $239 it works out to 183pt or 184pt. I went with 184pt as it has the most Favorite Week matches, but 191pt also has a bunch of matches (arguably more worthwhile matches, too).

Feb Contract 2 - $110.00 Transfer Tax
Also never seen this amount before. For $230/pt it works out to 433pt or 434pt and for $239/pt it works out to 417pt or 418pt. I went with 433pt, which is a match for a W51/52 1BR, but 417pt would have been a match for W18 2BR.

March Contract 1 - $112.20 Transfer Tax
Never seen this amount before. For $230/pt it works out to 442pt or 443pt and for $239 it works out to 426pt or 425pt. None of these appear to be matches for Favorite Weeks. I went with 425pt as it is the most round number and aligns with the current pricing.

Multiple contracts - $39.60 Transfer Tax
Unlike the above 2, I have seen this before. It works out to 155pt or 156pt in $230/pt pricing (I've been assuming 155pt). But it's also 150pt in $239/pt pricing, which is the most common contract size. I'm going to assume all $39.60 are 150pt on $239/pt pricing until the next price increase.

(let me know if you found me showing my math/process interesting)

As a reminder, I'm just doing ad hoc and monthly updates now.


Fun facts about April's sales:

April was kind of boring in terms of interesting contracts, with only a 222pt contract likely being a fixed week for a SV Deluxe Studio in W51-52 and the largest contract(s) were 'just' three 500pt contracts.

Unit 2C was the top seller again, with over 70% of this month's points. I think all declared Units, except 1A, have now appeared in recorded contracts (there might be a small Unit 2D). Unit 2B sales fell off to third place while 1I (one eye) came in 2nd this month. There were a few more of early-Unit contracts (1B, 1E) recorded this month, as well.

It is likely that a bunch of Units are now sold out: 1B, 1C, 1D, 1F, 1G, 1H, 1J, and 2A. We still haven't seen 1A show up in any recorded deeds yet.

Also of note: I've reclassified last month's 209pt 'Unit 3A' contract as a 160pt VGC contract. I'm not updating prior posts with this change.

Other interesting facts about the contracts recorded in April:

• 120 contracts recorded
  • 41x 150pt contracts (42 the prior month)
  • 21x 200pt contracts (14 the prior month)
  • 16x 50pt contracts (13 the prior month)
  • 12x 100pt contracts (10 the prior month)
  • 9x 300pt contracts (2 the prior month)
  • 6x 250pt contracts (14 the prior month)
  • 15x other contracts (22 the prior month)
• 166.6pt average contract size in April
  • May had an average of 128.2pt
  • June had an average of 142.8pt
  • July had an average of 157.2pt
  • August had an average of 152.7pt
  • September had an average of 149.8pt
  • October had an average of 165.1pt
  • November had an average of 164.8pt
  • December had an average of 154.7pt
  • January 2024 had an average of 162.6pt
  • February 2024 had an average of 167.2pt, highest ever
  • March 2024 had an average of 153.1pt
• 500pt is largest contract in April (3x)
• 50pt is smallest contract
• 500pt is the largest contract size purchased multiple times (3x)
• Unit 2C was assigned the most (14.2k, 2nd most was 1I at 2,350)

Points recorded by date:

"U" unit stands for "Unknown". This is because OCRW recorded a Unit number with an error and no 'most likely' correct fix. This is most likely due to issues with OCR (optical character recognition) used in their recording process.




Points recorded by month:

 

[NorCalFanatic]

Appreciate you continuing to do this. It’s very interesting to read!