Will this end up being the pandemic that cried wolf?

[BuckeyeBama]

One of the largest vectors of transmission is nursing home systems have medical staff that travel to multiple nursing homes daily in a region to provide medical services as a cost effective measure, generally smart a smart thing but not good during a pandemic. Good thing is that is becoming against the law in multiple states. Protecting nursing homes is one of the eaiser things we can do to fight this pandemic.

Then why isn't it happening? It may sound easy, but if it was really that easy it wouldn't be happening.

 

[NYCgrrl]

One of the largest vectors of transmission is nursing home systems have medical staff that travel to multiple nursing homes daily in a region to provide medical services as a cost effective measure, generally smart a smart thing but not good during a pandemic. Good thing is that is becoming against the law in multiple states. Protecting nursing homes is one of the eaiser things we can do to fight this pandemic.

Not sure how nursing homes are set up in your area but here they are basically self contained units where the virus passes from one patient to another via workers w/o PPE, and limited space.

 

[xuxa777]

Not sure how nursing homes are set up in your area but here they are basically self contained units where the virus passes from one patient to another via workers w/o PPE, and limited space.

Same, but in a significant portion of the outbreaks throughout the country they are finding that shared staff of multiple homes have been spreading it to all the homes they went to.

 

[KBoopaloo]

This is the big problem, yes this virus is bad and severe that is extremely obvious and every death is tragic horrible, it truly is. however the hyper focus on the death numbers by media and whoever is skewing our reactions and creating tremendous fear. People would feel just as bad if they watched with hyper focus with a ticker of the 7500 people that die everyday in the US but we don't. More children have been dying everyday from child abuse than they have from Covid in total to date, those are really tragic stories too.

Somewhere in the range of 98% of cases worldwide recover fine and/or mild cases that is huge. We need to be smart and protect the high risk etc. but not live in fear and keep things in perspective

And as I said earlier in this thread, the deaths are not the only thing to consider here. The virus killing you is not the only bad outcome. Yes there are milder cases that people recover from at home but there are also thousands of people being hospitalized and undergoing drastic measures to save their lives and we still have no idea what the long term effects of that will be. My friend’s husband is in his late 30s and has been hospitalized since mid March (he was one of the earliest cases in my state). He is now in a rehab facility because while he beat the virus and came off the ventilator and ECMO he is far too weak to go home without intensive physical therapy to gain back some strength. The story of the 41 year old Broadway actor who had to have his leg amputated over the weekend was posted either earlier in this thread or somewhere else on this board. He ended up on ECMO and needed dialysis and has had so many complications that now he has lost a leg. Yesterday I posted the story of the Austrian doctor who examined recovered divers who had mild cases and their examinations show extensive lung damage.

So sure, while the majority of people dying are over 80, here in Massachusetts 25-30% of the people hospitalized are under 60 years old and while they may not ultimately die, their lives could be shortened by the damage they have suffered. We still don’t know and we won’t know for a while so these proclamations you keep making in this thread about all the “good news” are awfully premature.

The idea that the media has stoked fear when “only” elderly people are dying is absurd. My fear comes from my own knowledge of what has happened to people I personally know and care about and from what I hear from my family members who are working on hospitals on the front lines. Yes, it is good news that so far we’ve had less deaths than the models predicted and maybe all the people who had this and recovered will not have long term damage to their lungs or their hearts or their kidneys. Maybe it will just take time for them to heal and go back to where they were before. I so hope that is true. I hope that my friend’s husband gets to go back to life as normal and put all this in his rear view mirror. But the fact of the matter is that I don’t know if that will be the case. The doctors don’t know yet if that will be the case. And you don’t know if that will be the case either.

 

[punkin]

Not making up facts at all, read again.

Total deaths for covid of children <14 year old to date - 3, as of end of last week. Take it up to age of less 25 years old and it is only 24 deaths total.

Where did you find number of deaths for under 25s? I need a source to show my extremely anxious 21yo that she is not actually at any statistical risk.

 

[b2k1121]

This is the big problem, yes this virus is bad and severe that is extremely obvious and every death is tragic horrible, it truly is. however the hyper focus on the death numbers by media and whoever is skewing our reactions and creating tremendous fear. People would feel just as bad if they watched with hyper focus with a ticker of the 7500 people that die everyday in the US but we don't. More children have been dying everyday from child abuse than they have from Covid in total to date, those are really tragic stories too.

Somewhere in the range of 98% of cases worldwide recover fine and/or mild cases that is huge. We need to be smart and protect the high risk etc. but not live in fear and keep things in perspective

Edit, missed that you were talking about children specifically.

 

[xuxa777]

Where did you find number of deaths for under 25s? I need a source to show my extremely anxious 21yo that she is not actually at any statistical risk.

CDC site , https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/COVID19/

 

[sam_gordon]

Where did you find number of deaths for under 25s? I need a source to show my extremely anxious 21yo that she is not actually at any statistical risk.

From https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm



What doesn't make sense is why they only list 21K deaths across all ages from COVID. But, just looking at the relative numbers, from age 24 and younger, about 1% of the deaths fall into that age range.

 

[xuxa777]

The latest numbers are from last week and death reporting lags, but the trend is obvious.

 

[cabanafrau]

Where should covid positive nursing home patients who reside in nursing homes because they need daily nursing care, yet don't have covid symptoms that merit hospitalization be transferred?

 

[NYCgrrl]

Same, but in a significant portion of the outbreaks throughout the country they are finding that shared staff of multiple homes have been spreading it to all the homes they went to.

I'm not seeing that but maybe I need to re-read news articles on the reasons for the outbreaks at the nursing homes throughout the country. A quick glance at this article also noted under-staffing:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/17/us/coronavirus-nursing-homes.html

 

[Cannot_Wait_4Disney]

This is one reason why the current viral (no pun intended) theory making the rounds that Covid deaths are being overreported is off base.

That's right. Remember those two deaths I took off in the tinfoil hat conspiracy theory thread of over reporting. I have to add these two back in. Count increased from 45,255 to 45,257. I can now stop emailing every hour that the count is off by two and that I'm on to their conspiracy.

 

[Notrealname]

snip

And really what part of what I said was anywhere remotely like "let's rejoice at the amount of the deaths"..nope didn't say that not one bit. But it's a nice way of playing into the extreme viewpoint I know some people have when someone says anything remotely less doom and gloom.

Obviously I should have added the disclaimer that I did not mean to imply you saw a silver lining.
My only point is that to the extent that there is any good in knowing COVID 19 was here about a month earlier than original thought, it has value for researchers going forward. I doubt that I’ll see a silver lining from any of what transpired so far unless that knowledge leads to a treatment or vaccine.

 

[sam_gordon]

The latest numbers are from last week and death reporting lags, but the trend is obvious.

If they're using last weeks numbers, they shouldn't say "Data as of April 22,2020" (that's today for those reading later).

 

[xuxa777]

If they're using last weeks numbers, they should say "Data as of April 22,2020" (that's today for those reading later).

It clarifies all that in the notes on the page I linked

 

[Mackenzie Click-Mickelson]

Obviously I should have added the disclaimer that I did not mean to imply you saw a silver lining.
My only point is that to the extent that there is any good in knowing COVID 19 was here about a month earlier than original thought, it has value for researchers going forward. I doubt that I’ll see a silver lining from any of what transpired so far unless that knowledge leads to a treatment or vaccine.

I can certainly understand the way you view it all; after all treatment and vaccine (especially this) is our end goal IMO.

It's not just researchers, it affects all of us given that our local officials and federal government are making decisions based off of studies and information found out and will be found out in the future. Even the most trusted by many Dr. Fauci has discussed about a week and a half ago about immunity cards and the real possibility of that being used even as controversial as that may be. That directly correlates to the concept of how many people have had the virus and recovered from it.

I think maybe the disconnect is saying "seeing a silver lining" attributes to seeing something positive out of the virus itself which really there's nothing positive about the actual virus. If anyone had seen any of my posts that's the furthest from my meaning. But I do see a positive in the suggestion that many more people had it but didn't require hospitalizations, or didn't die and that our healthcare system could have been so much more overwhelmed when we were nowhere near prepared for that back then but it wasn't but as more data points are studied I hope we have a clearer picture.

That doesn't mean that I think any number of deaths or hospitalizations or permanent consequences is a silver lining or seen as anything other than completely awful that anyone experiences any of these things. I think that's why I reacted the way I did because I certainly don't see any positive or silver lining to that but it also wasn't what I was meaning with my comments.

 

[SirDuff]

If they're using last weeks numbers, they should say "Data as of April 22,2020" (that's today for those reading later).

Do you mean that they should NOT say...

 

[sam_gordon]

Do you mean that they should NOT say...

Yes, thank you. I corrected the post.

 

[Cannot_Wait_4Disney]

This is the big problem, yes this virus is bad and severe that is extremely obvious and every death is tragic horrible, it truly is. however the hyper focus on the death numbers by media and whoever is skewing our reactions and creating tremendous fear. People would feel just as bad if they watched with hyper focus with a ticker of the 7500 people that die everyday in the US but we don't. More children have been dying everyday from child abuse than they have from Covid in total to date, those are really tragic stories too.

Somewhere in the range of 98% of cases worldwide recover fine and/or mild cases that is huge. We need to be smart and protect the high risk etc. but not live in fear and keep things in perspective

According to Do something.org, an anti child abuse organization, 5 children die every day of child abuse.
According to the National Center for Fatality Review and Prevention about 1700 children die a year of child abuse in the U.S. That is 1700 too many in my book but Covid-19 beat that just yesterday.
Further, we can toss child abusers in prison at the same time we try to deal with covid 19. We have multitasking capability.

 

[Cogswel_Cogs]

Don't know about other countries but Turkey looks like its about to go reall bad fast.