Will this end up being the pandemic that cried wolf?

[Mackenzie Click-Mickelson]

Another interesting news item, as far as to some reason why NY and Italy exploded as a hot spot for deaths. In NY for example Covid-19 positive infectious patients were instructed to be admitted back to nursing homes, it was New York policy to ease hosptials. Putting infectiuous patient back into their nursing home of high risk people. The same thing happened in the Italian hotspot of Lombardy. This policy probably drove of up the death rate significantly in those regions as at least 30-40% of the Covid deaths are in nursing homes and most likely it will be even a higher percentage. This will be interesting to see how it develops.

Yeah that didn't help whatsoever but long term care facilities, physical rehab facilities, etc all present a risk anyways. You have suspectible populations in tight quarters and caregivers who come in contact repeatedly with them. Another such area are prisions where cases have amplified there as well.

When the county above me had something like 330 cases 110 was from just 1 physical rehab facility. It wasn't that they were reintroducing people back into the home though. A prison located not too too far from me in a different county has 40 inmates and 47 staff with positive results.

 

[jamescanuck2001]

Population of Indonesia is close to the US population, with only 635 deaths they would have to be undercounting by 30,000 deaths at a minimum to be even close to the US.

Not the point of my post.

 

[xuxa777]

Except it's not really true (in the way people what it to be). Here is the CNN article.

The facts are true, even with your caveat, what people takeaway is up to them, obviously you have a different opinion and that is ok, but it is false to say the article is "not really true" because you have a different opinion.

 

[xuxa777]

Not the point of my post.

Thank you

 

[Dumbo777]

The 37,000 deaths as of right now (only 3 months into the crisis) are real.

The steps we took suck for all of us, but they WORKED. We didn't cry wolf. We fought back with precautions and it worked.

I agree that precautions worked. For me personally, I hate to look at those death tickers numbers. It is so easy to look at the numbers and just see a count instead of remembering that each one of those numbers was a life, someone's family member.

 

[xuxa777]

Yeah that didn't help whatsoever but long term care facilities, physical rehab facilities, etc all present a risk anyways. You have suspectible populations in tight quarters and caregivers who come in contact repeatedly with them. Another such area are prisions where cases have amplified there as well.

When the county above me had something like 330 cases 110 was from just 1 physical rehab facility. It wasn't that they were reintroducing people back into the home though. A prison located not too too far from me in a different county has 40 inmates and 47 staff with positive results.

Yes, prison are also bad (less deaths) but not with severity due to the population not being as old or high risk or having under lying conditions.

 

[Mackenzie Click-Mickelson]

Yes, prison are also bad (less deaths) but not with severity due to the population not being as old or high risk or having under lying conditions.

Yeah from the prison it's lack of PPE, inadequate healthcare and close quarters at least that's the issues presented in my area.

 

[xuxa777]

I agree that precautions worked. For me personally, I hate to look at those death tickers numbers. It is so easy to look at the numbers and just see a count instead of remembering that each one of those numbers was a life, someone's family member.

This is the big problem, yes this virus is bad and severe that is extremely obvious and every death is tragic horrible, it truly is. however the hyper focus on the death numbers by media and whoever is skewing our reactions and creating tremendous fear. People would feel just as bad if they watched with hyper focus with a ticker of the 7500 people that die everyday in the US but we don't. More children have been dying everyday from child abuse than they have from Covid in total to date, those are really tragic stories too.

Somewhere in the range of 98% of cases worldwide recover fine and/or mild cases that is huge. We need to be smart and protect the high risk etc. but not live in fear and keep things in perspective

 

[cabanafrau]

Numbers should only be used when they support a specific viewpoint. When used to look at any other perspective they are meaningless, skewed, incorrect, inflated, under reported, inaccurate and fearmongering.

 

[BuckeyeBama]

Somewhere in the range of 98% of cases worldwide recover fine and/or mild cases that is huge. We need to be smart and protect the high risk etc. but not live in fear and keep things in perspective

The bolded is where we really are not prepared at this point as evidenced by the continued expansion of this virus into more and more nursing homes and long term care facilities across the country.

 

[monkeydawn]

I don't know why it would be good news. The two cases were determined by autopsy. How many other cases are out there where an infected person died, was never tested, never autopsied, and cause of death listed as pneumonia. Probably many. New data points from the early going, when there were relatively few cases, are not going to change the overall numbers much.

On a related note, there were 1000 more burials than normal in Jakarta, Indonesia in March. For the entire country of Indonesia, 83 coronavirus deaths were reported in March.

Underreporting of coronavirus deaths is probably very prevalent, especially in 3rd world countries with limited testing capability. The impact of this virus is likely much worse than the official numbers show.

Or cardiac arrest or kidney failure. Those are both causes of death that are commonly being seen in COVID positive cases. Probably a good amount of deaths from these causes from unknow COVID positives as well.

There are likely other types of organ failures that arent quite as commonly seen now because we dont know to be looking for them. We cant know what we dont know. And right now what we know is so very little. That's why buying a little time right now is so important.

 

[mjkacmom]

This is the big problem, yes this virus is bad and severe that is extremely obvious and every death is tragic horrible, it truly is. however the hyper focus on the death numbers by media and whoever is skewing our reactions and creating tremendous fear. People would feel just as bad if they watched with hyper focus with a ticker of the 7500 people that die everyday in the US but we don't. More children have been dying everyday from child abuse than they have from Covid in total to date, those are really tragic stories too.

Somewhere in the range of 98% of cases worldwide recover fine and/or mild cases that is huge. We need to be smart and protect the high risk etc. but not live in fear and keep things in perspective

Under 1700 children die each year due to abuse and neglect in the US, over the past 2 months more than 25,000 people in the US have died from covid19. You can’t just make up figures and make them facts.

 

[jlwhitney]

The bolded is where we really are not prepared at this point as evidenced by the continued expansion of this virus into more and more nursing homes and long term care facilities across the country.

Nursing homes have been an issue for infections for decades and this is really bringing that issue out. Too many don't follow proper infection control procedures and often cut corners.

 

[TLSnell1981]

Or cardiac arrest or kidney failure. Those are both causes of death that are commonly being seen in COVID positive cases. Probably a good amount of deaths from these causes from unknow COVID positives as well.

There are likely other types of organ failures that arent quite as commonly seen now because we dont know to be looking for them. We cant know what we dont know. And right now what we know is so very little. That's why buying a little time right now is so important.

Should we weld the doors shut for the next few years (at least until eviction)? Will we label deaths due to child abuse, starvation, drug/alcohol abuse and suicide COVID too?

 

[xuxa777]

Under 1700 children die each year due to abuse and neglect in the US, over the past 2 months more than 25,000 people in the US have died from covid19. You can’t just make up figures and make them facts.

Not making up facts at all, read again.

Total deaths for covid of children <14 year old to date - 3, as of end of last week. Take it up to age of less 25 years old and it is only 24 deaths total.

 

[xuxa777]

Nursing homes have been an issue for infections for decades and this is really bringing that issue out. Too many don't follow proper infection control procedures and often cut corners.

Well stop putting infected Covid patients back into them once they test positive would be a good place to start.

 

[Notrealname]

The silver lining, if you will, that I can see about looking at just how many people have had it, even looking at the length of time it's been here, is 1) it could be seen as helping to lower the statistical death rate as more information about just how many people may have had it and self-recovered 2) it could be seen as that many more people had milder or no symptoms.

Of course..part of that is recognizing that we all could have been spreading it around far earlier and at a larger number than originally thought but I'm going for looking at some sort of 'good' viewpoint about increasing knowledge.

That the pandemic may have started a month earlier than we originally thought doesn’t comfort me one bit. While I think I understand your point. I fail to find a silver lining in more than 45,000 deaths.

It may well be helpful to the epidemiologists going forward, it’s no comfort to me as I wait and take self protection measures.

 

[BuckeyeBama]

Well stop putting infected Covid patients back into them once they test positive would be a good place to start.

Certainly need to figure out how to stop the spread once in a facility, but the larger issue is that we can't keep it from getting into the facilities to begin with. Even in states where no visitors are allowed, the list of facilities with infected patients grows every day. The infections are not starting the these facilities - it is being brought in from outside.

We need better testing if we are to have any hope of stopping that because the more we open back up, the more the care givers will be at risk.

 

[Mackenzie Click-Mickelson]

That the pandemic may have started a month earlier than we originally thought doesn’t comfort me one bit. While I think I understand your point. I fail to find a silver lining in more than 45,000 deaths.

It may well be helpful to the epidemiologists going forward, it’s no comfort to me as I wait and take self protection measures.

*sigh* yup knew someone was going to do that..extremes folks extremes. That's not all that is out there ya know it's not just 2 ways of looking at this

And really what part of what I said was anywhere remotely like "let's rejoice at the amount of the deaths"..nope didn't say that not one bit. But it's a nice way of playing into the extreme viewpoint I know some people have when someone says anything remotely less doom and gloom.

 

[xuxa777]

Certainly need to figure out how to stop the spread once in a facility, but the larger issue is that we can't keep it from getting into the facilities to begin with. Even in states where no visitors are allowed, the list of facilities with infected patients grows every day. The infections are not starting the these facilities - it is being brought in from outside.

We need better testing if we are to have any hope of stopping that because the more we open back up, the more the care givers will be at risk.

One of the largest vectors of transmission is nursing home systems have medical staff that travel to multiple nursing homes daily in a region to provide medical services as a cost effective measure, generally smart a smart thing but not good during a pandemic. Good thing is that is becoming against the law in multiple states. Protecting nursing homes is one of the eaiser things we can do to fight this pandemic.