5-6 years is hardly enough to establish a bona fide "market price" in the resale market for a new resort. The resort is not even sold out yet. The oldest deeds are barely 6 years old and you had a lengthy pandemic in the middle where nobody was buying anything. It needs more time to establish a "proper price".
In my opinion, on average about 50% of the value of a contract comes from the "home resort advantage" and about 50% comes from the flexibility to book other resorts. For small resorts like VGC and BCV the value of the "home resort advantage' is probably higher than 50%. For large resorts and those easier to trade into like OKW, SSR, AKV the value of the home resort advantage is probably lower than 50% - and much of the value comes from the ability to use those points at other resorts.
As a thought exercise - I think RIV is comparable to VGF in many ways (level of luxury, rack rates, both studios and 1BRs sleep 5, convenience to parks etc), and if it was unrestricted, I suspect their resale prices would be very similar. But I wouldn't be surprised if RIV eventually ended up at about 50% of VGF mostly because of the restrictions, and maybe the slightly higher dues help drag it to that area too. On a similar note, I suspect Vero contracts would be at less than $20/pt today if they were good only at a single resort. You'd have a lot more of them on the market, and a lot fewer potential buyers. The fact they can be used at WDW, DL, and Hawaii adds to their value quite a bit, even with those high dues.
When thinking about an all- (or mostly-) restricted DVC world the big question tome is what the prevailing resale prices of those resorts will be. I think you can cut most current resale prices in half - the contracts would be a lot less flexible, and that would be reflected in the price. Maybe some smaller resorts with high demand (like the VGC and BCV of today) will fare slightly better. In that world, I don't think an informed buyer who knows the direct purchase loses 75% right off the bat, will buy direct just because of the FOMO factor. Personally, I'd take 300+ restricted resale points (across 2-4 resorts) for the same price as 100 direct points any day.
Conversely, in that same world, if they offered to wash some of those resale points (and/or if there was a tiered benefit system where there was meaningful benefit to more than 150 direct points), that may indeed sway me, or least cause me to think about it seriously. But as for the restrictions themselves - the more they destroy resale value, the less I'd be inclined to go direct just because of the upfront capital loss, even if it's "just on paper".