The Poly2 Pricing Thread

[Cybertruck]

If sales begin next year, my guess is $227pp with incentives.

My guess is it will be $230 base price with incentives bringing it down close to $200.

More scenarios for my PVB2 spreadsheet. Any guess on what you think resale prices will be? I already assume it be a restricted resort which is not a concern.

 

[Sandisw]

More scenarios for my PVB2 spreadsheet. Any guess on what you think resale prices will be? I already assume it be a restricted resort which is not a concern.

Because the PVB contracts have dropped into in the $130s, I would guess that the pricing of the tower won’t impact it to the degree it did with VGF which was in the $190s when it started sales again for the rooms at BPK.

 

[TheDailyMoo]

Because the PVB contracts have dropped into in the $130s, I would guess that the pricing of the tower won’t impact it to the degree it did with VGF which was in the $190s when it started sales again for the rooms at BPK.

Would you agree that Poly resale wouldn't fall much more percentage wise if Poly2 is a new association versus the percentage it would rise if it is the same association?

In other words:

New Association - PVB maybe 120s?
Same Association - PVB maybe...what...like 160s? 170s?

 

[Sandisw]

Would you agree that Poly resale wouldn't fall much more percentage wise if Poly2 is a new association versus the percentage it would rise if it is the same association?

In other words:

New Association - PVB maybe 120s?
Same Association - PVB maybe...what...like 160s? 170s?

IMO, I don’t think it will matter if DVD prices it well.

The sold out price they have now is irrelevant because they will price it to the base price to RIV, AUL, and VDH.

My guess is that all will be around $230 next year and incentives will bring it down.

So, whether it’s new or old, I think we will see it settle at $130s or $140s resale.

Of course, I could be way off base! I still lean it’s going to be new but I think DVD will need to continue aggressive incentives.

The more I think of it, the more I move back toward it being new to keep as many sales direct as possible.

 

[HIRyeDVC]

More scenarios for my PVB2 spreadsheet. Any guess on what you think resale prices will be? I already assume it be a restricted resort which is not a concern.

Somewhere between current VGF and BLT

 

[TheDailyMoo]

So, whether it’s new or old, I think we will see it settle at $130s or $140s resale.

If it's part of the old association and Poly2 pricing starts around 200 with incentives that would surely drive PVB resale much higher than it currently is I would think. Unless they blow it out with VGF style incentives then you're still looking at 140s? Either way PVB resale is going to be hyper dynamic pricing once Poly2 goes on sale no matter the direction DVD takes, more than any other resort resale. I'm very interested to see how this all plays out. The PVB resale market has a very stock market equity feel to it. One could consider "buying low" here hoping they get the "merger" with Poly2, or on the flip side an owner can also be thinking "sell high" (even though it's already come down quite a bit from it's highs), and the "catalyst" is the Poly2 announcement.

 

[Sandisw]

If it's part of the old association and Poly2 pricing starts around 200 with incentives that would surely drive PVB resale much higher than it currently is I would think. Unless they blow it out with VGF style incentives then you're still looking at 140s? Either way PVB resale is going to be hyper dynamic pricing once Poly2 goes on sale no matter the direction DVD takes, more than any other resort resale. I'm very interested to see how this all plays out. The PVB resale market has a very stock market equity feel to it. One could consider "buying low" here hoping they get the "merger" with Poly2, or on the flip side an owner can also be thinking "sell high" (even though it's already come down quite a bit from it's highs), and the "catalyst" is the Poly2 announcement.

Thst is my guess..maybe stretch to $150? But remember, resale points will still be restricted from RIV and VDH, and most likely other new resorts and won’t come with membership extras, even if it ends up the same.

So, I think you need a decent spread and I don’t think $20 to $30 less will be enough to shift people to resale over direct.

Maybe this is why they don’t want to announce.

 

[Mikey15]

I think there’s a lot of push and pull:

New Association: existing non-grandfathered or new PVB resale buyers will not be able to book the tower even at 7mo. A subset of existing PVB resale owners may want to sell their PVB and buy Poly tower direct, which would be able to book the tower at 11mo and PVB at 7mo, which generally doesn’t seem to be a problem to get. The best of both worlds for Poly lovers could be owning Poly tower direct.

Existing association: Assuming you’re shopping PVB resale points because you want to stay at Poly, the resale points are extremely desirable as they’re almost equal to the direct points DVD will be selling for assuredly more money. That could boost PVB resale above the $140+ range it’s already at, but also leave less urgency for people on the fence to buy or add on direct.

In both scenarios you’ll get some existing PVB owners selling, to either get the best of both worlds, or to upgrade to direct/blue card if they don’t have it already. You’ll also get new entrants buying. In a sense we probably all overthink this here since the largest percentage of DVC buyers probably buy their resort once and never even think of selling until & unless they’re just not going anymore. What percentage of total points would resale transactions represent each year?

 

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

I think there’s a lot of push and pull:

New Association: existing non-grandfathered or new PVB resale buyers will not be able to book the tower even at 7mo. A subset of existing PVB resale owners may want to sell their PVB and buy Poly tower direct, which would be able to book the tower at 11mo and PVB at 7mo, which generally doesn’t seem to be a problem to get. The best of both worlds for Poly lovers could be owning Poly tower direct.

Existing association: Assuming you’re shopping PVB resale points because you want to stay at Poly, the resale points are extremely desirable as they’re almost equal to the direct points DVD will be selling for assuredly more money. That could boost PVB resale above the $140+ range it’s already at, but also leave less urgency for people on the fence to buy or add on direct.

In both scenarios you’ll get some existing PVB owners selling, to either get the best of both worlds, or to upgrade to direct/blue card if they don’t have it already. You’ll also get new entrants buying. In a sense we probably all overthink this here since the largest percentage of DVC buyers probably buy their resort once and never even think of selling until & unless they’re just not going anymore. What percentage of total points would resale transactions represent each year?

Why are you assuming that the Tower will be more popular? Because of more room options? Better features? Isn’t the location inferior for most purposes?

 

[tom1944]

Why are you assuming that the Tower will be more popular? Because of more room options? Better features? Isn’t the location inferior for most purposes?

I would think because of room options.

I have never considered Poly1 because I don’t want studios only. I figure there are others like me.

 

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

I would think because of room options.

I have never considered Poly1 because I don’t want studios only. I figure there are others like me.

I suspect that we are not the most typical DVC family because (at least at the WDW resorts) we don’t need a lot of space to spread out. We are in our rooms to sleep and occasionally shower—we occasionally have a 1/2 day at the pool (at Poly or SAB) and at Poly we like to eat breakfast and might touch back for dole whips between park hopping. For me, proximity to monorail or park itself is my #1 priority, and proximity to hotel food is secondary, we’ll take whatever room happens to be available. We do like to take the boat from Poly/VGF to MK, and I think the tower should be closer to the boats?

I think one important question for many families will be how bad the new point chart is and if you can get two studios at Poly for less than 1bed at Poly Tower?

 

[Sandisw]

Why are you assuming that the Tower will be more popular? Because of more room options? Better features? Isn’t the location inferior for most purposes?

We don’t like the location of the current PVB rooms so the tower actually appeals to us.

But, I think everyone has different likes and dislikes. From my walks to Poly from VGF every time we stay at VGF, I think the walk from where the tower will be to the main building seems closer than when I have stayed in Moorea.

Now, it’s definitely farther to the TTC for Epcot, but it’s very possible it would make more sense to jump on at the Grand to ride around for anyone not wanting to walk it.

We have not been in that area since February so I am looking forward to seeing the project next month!!

 

[TheDailyMoo]

From my walks to Poly from VGF every time we stay at VGF, I think the walk from where the tower will be to the main building seems closer than when I have stayed in Moorea.

Last month I walked from the GFV lobby to the Poly lobby and although I didn't time it I can almost swear it was shorter from GF to construction midpoint than from construction to Poly lobby.

 

[lovethesun12]

I would think because of room options.

I have never considered Poly1 because I don’t want studios only. I figure there are others like me.

There are, but at the same time the studios pretty much always book up first across the board for DVC.

I think this will be an issue with poly2 if it's a new association. There will likely be fewer studios than poly1, meaning more difficult to book, and people with poly2 will be looking at the wide open studios in poly1 they can't book until they are 7 months out.

 

[PolyRob]

Last month I walked from the GFV lobby to the Poly lobby and although I didn't time it I can almost swear it was shorter from GF to construction midpoint than from construction to Poly lobby.

Pre construction with the original paths Luau Cove was probably right in the middle of VGF1 and GCH. Probably seems "closer" to GCH because you hit Aotearoa, Fiji, and Tuvalu on the way.

 

[PolyRob]

There are, but at the same time the studios pretty much always book up first across the board for DVC.

I think this will be an issue with poly2 if it's a new association. There will likely be fewer studios than poly1, meaning more difficult to book, and people with poly2 will be looking at the wide open studios in poly1 they can't book until they are 7 months out.

DVC doesn't care about that. Look at CCV with all the small contracts sold and lack of studios.

Room types aside, I believe the tower will be desirable because it's new. The Poly longhouses are showing age. Elevators and hard to cram strollers or assistive devices in. Hallways look dingy even post-refurb. Heavy rain floods the doorways. The tower will be pristine. A new porte cochere and dedicated parking will also be nice. You can park right outside the tower or get dropped off from a ride share without walking the resort.

PVB1 didn't interest me. PVB2 in a new association with the right amenities and incentives may be my 2nd DVC home resort.

 

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

Pre construction with the original paths Luau Cove was probably right in the middle of VGF1 and GCH. Probably seems "closer" to GCH because you hit Aotearoa, Fiji, and Tuvalu on the way.

View attachment 784991

Thank you. Looks like it’s pretty close to the Poly boat launch, but a longer walk to either monorail (and Poly is closer). Do we know which walking routes will survive construction?

 

[lovethesun12]

DVC doesn't care about that. Look at CCV with all the small contracts sold and lack of studios.

Room types aside, I believe the tower will be desirable because it's new. The Poly longhouses are showing age. Elevators and hard to cram strollers or assistive devices in. Hallways look dingy even post-refurb. Heavy rain floods the doorways. The tower will be pristine. A new porte cochere and dedicated parking will also be nice. You can park right outside the tower or get dropped off from a ride share without walking the resort.

PVB1 didn't interest me. PVB2 in a new association with the right amenities and incentives may be my 2nd DVC home resort.

That makes sense.

We're the opposite though I think. When I hear poly1 being criticized like that, it hurts! LOL. We love it! I'll save my criticism for PVB2 until I actually stay there

 

[MarkNC2Disney]

The Poly longhouses are showing age. Elevators and hard to cram strollers or assistive devices in

The elevators are pretty abysmal.

“Desirable because it’s new” is a pretty universal statement though. Disney has a way of making negative changes after the newness has worn off. Topolino’s dinner menu (where’s the tomahawk?!) and breakfast policy are recent such examples for me

 

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

The elevators are pretty abysmal.

“Desirable because it’s new” is a pretty universal statement though. Disney has a way of making negative changes after the newness has worn off. Topolino’s dinner menu (where’s the tomahawk?!) and breakfast policy are recent such examples for me

I also think “desirable because it’s new” hasn’t panned out at VDH. On the one hand, from Disney’s perspective, it appears to be selling on pace with expectations over $200–but VGC (resale!) is still selling at a huge premium last I checked (and there aren’t really other options)…not sure if Poly Tower will do as well as VDH when there are 2-4 other actively selling options, including 1 without resale restrictions (and huge volume of resale options) —but I don’t feel confident enough to say for sure.