The demise of unrestricted resorts, by year.

[Patmcpsu]

Most people know that the availability of unrestricted resorts will eventually dwindle to nothing (assuming DVC maintains their current policy), but I haven't seen anyone map out what the dwindling will look like.

I made this spreadsheet to show how it will work for the various resort owners. This is the number of AWAY RESORTS a resale owner will have access to (it does not count the home resort). That is why 13 is shown while the Original 14 is still intact:


A few observations:

• CCV is known for being the last of the Original 14 (the last unrestricted resort) but that distinction is moot. After 2066, unrestricted CCV points will still exist, but won't be valid at any other resort.
• Has there been any discussion about whether resale owners can still access OKW as an away resort between 2043 and 2057? The spreadsheet assumes the answer is yes.
• After 2057, all unrestricted WDW resorts will be in the Magic Kingdom area.

 

[CVG]

This will be useful for many people.

But I should be dead by then and/or not wishing to fly transatlantic again, so it's all good!

 

[Tumnus]

I saw someone saying SSR won't be as good after the originals go away...it looks like there will still be 8 others running, I think it should be fine.

 

[CraigInPA]

How many current members will still be members in 2042, 18 years from now, to worry about such things?

 

[CastAStone]

I saw someone saying SSR won't be as good after the originals go away...it looks like there will still be 8 others running, I think it should be fine.

Plus no more competing with all those OKW 2042 owners for trades. It might be an improvement.

 

[Patmcpsu]

I saw someone saying SSR won't be as good after the originals go away...it looks like there will still be 8 others running, I think it should be fine.

I agree. We talk about away-resort options getting decimated in 2042, but in reality it's:

1. Beach Club - Hard to get at seven months anyway
2. Boulder Ridge - Copper Creek makes the loss kind of moot
3. Hilton Head - Niche property
4. Vero Beach - Niche Property
5. Old Key West - Maybe it remains alive until 2057 due to extensions?
6. Boardwalk - The only one that really hurts

And then the next resort is SSR itself, which nobody is eager to do an away-stay at. And it will also decrease the number of DVC members trying to sleep around.

The precipice isn't as soon as we feared, but once it hits, it will hit fast.

 

[Tatebeck]

Strong disagree. I think leading up to (and after) 2042, SSR owners will have a very difficult time trading out at the remaining resorts for various reasons.

• More and more members buying cheap SSR SAP points but not wanting to stay there
• All the millions of direct points they will sell between now and 2042 they will have to compete with
• The resorts that are closing in 2042 are mainly ones that people want to stay at and don't trade out of (BWV, BCV, maybe even BRV), nice offsite resorts that many members also may not trade out of (HHI, VB) and then only around half of a resort (OKW 2042) is closing that may have decent amount of members using the points to sleep around like SSR members do.

Lower supply of rooms to trade into and an increase over time of members that can trade into those remaining rooms. There may be some slight relief right at 2042 with a decrease in points in the system, but long term I foresee rough times ahead

 

[sethschroeder]

I agree. We talk about away-resort options getting decimated in 2042, but in reality it's:

1. Beach Club - Hard to get at seven months anyway
2. Boulder Ridge - Copper Creek makes the loss kind of moot
3. Hilton Head - Niche property
4. Vero Beach - Niche Property
5. Old Key West - Maybe it remains alive until 2057 due to extensions?
6. Boardwalk - The only one that really hurts

And then the next resort is SSR itself, which nobody is eager to do an away-stay at. And it will also decrease the number of DVC members trying to sleep around.

The precipice isn't as soon as we feared, but once it hits, it will hit fast.

BCV/BWV/BRV are all a significant portion of points lost. The point percentage at OKW/SSR goes up at a fairly good clip.

After this summer we will have stayed upwards of a month at BCV in the last 3 years in a 2BR.

Slightly outdated as I did it in 2020:

For total rooms just at WDW:
4679 total rooms in the resorts without restrictions
25% at MK
17% at Epcot
13% at AK
44% at SSR/OKW

In 2042:
20% of rooms will expire (all near MK/Epcot)
28% of rooms by MK
0% of rooms by Epcot
16% of rooms by AK
56% of rooms at SSR/OKW
14% loss of rooms by MK/Epcot (SSR/OKW rooms increase by 27% of total pool of rooms)


There are currently 25,485,757 points in resorts next to MK or EPCOT without resale restrictions:
39% of points pool that are next to MK/EPCOT will expire
100% of points pool that are next to EPCOT will expire in 2042
17% of points pool that are next to MK will expire in 2042

Currently there are 70,230,462 points in resorts without resale restrictions:
25% of points are next to MK
11% of points are next to Epcot
11% of points are next to AK
31% of points are OKW/SSR

In 2042 there will be 57,367,132 points left in resorts without resale restrictions:
23% of points will be next to MK
0% of points will be next to Epcot
13% of points will be next to AK
38% of points will be OKW/SSR
13% loss of points by MK/EPCOT

 

[sethschroeder]

It will be interesting to see but I dont see why a resale purchase at VGF/POLY/CCV is going to trade out of their resort at 7 months?

The Epcot <-> MK resort exchange mix things up to give space for others to swoop in and give hope to Epcot/MK owners that they can find something. If however things start to tighten up it will only reinforce that you need to lock in your stay 7+ months out and not wait around.

You likely will still have chances if you are flexible but I can see more and more weeks becoming like that of the first week of December or Jersey week or other times.

 

[CastAStone]

Strong disagree. I think leading up to (and after) 2042, SSR owners will have a very difficult time trading out at the remaining resorts for various reasons.

• More and more members buying cheap SSR SAP points but not wanting to stay there
• All the millions of direct points they will sell between now and 2042 they will have to compete with
• The resorts that are closing in 2042 are mainly ones that people want to stay at and don't trade out of (BWV, BCV, maybe even BRV), nice offsite resorts that many members also may not trade out of (HHI, VB) and then only around half of a resort (OKW 2042) is closing that may have decent amount of members using the points to sleep around like SSR members do.

Lower supply of rooms to trade into and an increase over time of members that can trade into those remaining rooms. There may be some slight relief right at 2042 with a decrease in points in the system, but long term I foresee rough times ahead

The loss of the OKW SAP will offset all of the rest imho. We will see eventually I guess.

 

[Tatebeck]

The loss of the OKW SAP will offset all of the rest imho. We will see eventually I guess.

The loss of around half of OKW (not all of whom are using their points as SAP) will offset all of the direct points added to the 7 month system sold for the next 17+ years, the loss of BCV, BWV, and BRV as desirable 7 month trade spots, the occasional HHI and VB options to use your points away from the parks, and the ever increasing amount of SSR SAP owners, etc.? That just doesn't add up at all for me

And then you have the reduction in options for the other remaining O14 resale owners at places like VGF, Poly, BLT, CCV that will have less options to trade into, which means that they will be more likely to just stay at their home resorts, lowering the options for SSR SAP owners even more.

 

[Disdreaming479]

There are an unknown number of direct or grandfathered members who own at all of the post 2042 resorts that will continue, presumably, trading into new resorts. There will always be some level of trading.

 

[Tatebeck]

There are an unknown number of direct or grandfathered members who own at all of the post 2042 resorts that will continue, presumably, trading into new resorts. There will always be some level of trading.

Yes, and that is part of the problem. There are a large number of grandfathered resale and an always growing number of direct owners that can trade into ANY other resort at 7 months.

Then there is also a growing number of resale owners that can ONLY book at the remainder of the original 14 resorts. The number of these points will continue to grow when any of these direct contracts from these resorts is sold on the resale market. And then some of these options will STOP being options to trade into as they expire.

The direct owners and grandfathered owners can still book the remaining O14 and any other new resorts. They should be pretty well set.

But the O14 resale owners that can only book the remaining O14 resorts are competing with a growing number of others (more direct buyers + the already grandfathered as well as any more points from the O14 resorts being sold) for a decreasing amount of rooms as resorts close. A rising number of points over time with a decreasing amount of rooms over time will cause availability problems. It's just supply and demand. At the moment of the 2042 resorts closing the problem may ease slightly, then continue with the problem getting worse afterwards

 

[CastAStone]

HHI and VB options to use your points away from the parks

I would bet good money that These are also mostly SAP resorts in that their points are heavily used outside of VB and HHI.

BRV is tiny. BCV barely has availability.

The biggest thing is new owners of future resorts will be competing proportionally less for the remaining MK resorts / AKV. They have 20+ options by then, those are just five of them. Also, all of the restricted to one resort resale owners won’t be competing either.

Plus, Future New construction may very well be at the MK resorts; certainly I think we all expect a BLT2 and more VGF conversion. Those will be restricted but the owners won’t be trading into those properties either, and it will be more inventory for the direct owners.

So yes, as a SSR resale owner, Count my concern as very low.

 

[Disdreaming479]

How many ways do rooms become available for trading at 7m?
- owner hasn’t booked in 11-7m window
- owner banked forward or borrowed last year
- owner traded for new resorts
- owner traded to a cruise or other
- owner needs to book a less costly room due to few points available

 

[Disdreaming479]

There are tens of thousands of wdw guests that stay offsite and have the best time ever. Staying at SSR isn’t “having a rough time”.

 

[Tatebeck]

I would bet good money that These are also mostly SAP resorts in that their points are heavily used outside of VB and HHI.

BRV is tiny. BCV barely has availability.

The biggest thing is new owners of future resorts will be competing proportionally less for the remaining MK resorts / AKV. They have 20+ options by then, those are just five of them. Also, all of the restricted to one resort resale owners won’t be competing either.

Plus, Future New construction may very well be at the MK resorts; certainly I think we all expect a BLT2 and more VGF conversion. Those will be restricted but the owners won’t be trading into those properties either, and it will be more inventory for the direct owners.

So yes, as a SSR resale owner, Count my concern as very low.

I guess I'll see you at the parks (but probably not at the non SSR resorts) then!

But jokes aside, SSR is the biggest DVC resort, and if a huge chunk of those members are all trying to book a diminishing set of other resorts, that sounds like a scrap I don't want to be a part of. If point charts continue to climb, then there could very well be many owners from new resorts trying to book the cheaper older resorts for point savings, like people try to book BWV, OKW, etc today. Any direct owner from a future resort booking a room at the O14 further reduces the availability for SAP owners. With how heavy Disney looks to be leaning towards DVC, if there are a ton of points sold between now and 2042, even a very small percentage of those owners booking O14 resorts could have a large domino effect with O14 availability.

 

[Sandisw]

There are tens of thousands of wdw guests that stay offsite and have the best time ever. Staying at SSR isn’t “having a rough time”.

No but since the resorts leaving at WDW in 2042 are popular places to trade into, I do think that owners at the big resorts will have a harder time changing

But, that doesn’t mean if they are stuck there the experience will be rough.

 

[Tatebeck]

How many ways do rooms become available for trading at 7m?
- owner hasn’t booked in 11-7m window
- owner banked forward or borrowed last year
- owner traded for new resorts
- owner traded to a cruise or other
- owner needs to book a less costly room due to few points available

Most of these don't actually create availability, and some just kind of shift it around.

It wouldn't matter if a single owner hasn't booked anything between a certain 7-11 month window. They could still use their points in a different season or bank them. It matters if the entire ownership at that resort didn't fill a room category for a certain date by 7 months

Banking and borrowing - should generally offset to around neutral. If one owner banks and another borrows, but they both use all their points in those years, this created no 7 month availability.

Traded for a cruise - Disney now owns these points for the year and can book a room just like a member and rent it out - may result in no 7 month availability

Owner books a less costly room - as long as they use all their points a the home resort (whether they had an additional stay at a later date, banked a few points, etc) then there really would be no 7 month availability created

Only a member letting points expire or using points for a stay outside of their home resort 100% creates availability. Other things shift it around or depends on what Disney does with the swapped points.

There are tens of thousands of wdw guests that stay offsite and have the best time ever. Staying at SSR isn’t “having a rough time”.

Not saying it is rough. Just that I (and many other members) prefer other resorts to SSR for various reasons. I would still probably prefer staying at SSR to staying offsite though

 

[Brian Noble]

The loss of the OKW SAP will offset all of the rest imho.

It won't quite get there, but it will be close.

In round numbers, there are a little less than 10M points at BCV, BWV, and BRV.

OKW has 7.7M. Throw in VB and HHI and you get another 3M. It's not clear how many OKW owners extended (probably not many), nor is it clear how many VB/HHI owners are not SAP'ing their way around. But, it's probably close enough to a wash to not matter.

I think the bigger concern with O14-tied points is that there won't be any options in or near EP/DS, though I suppose Poly could be the best EP option.