Stopped considering DVC this week. Anyone else?

[bookwormde]

The metric they track (even in their corporate earnings report) is $ spent/guest/day. Historically, that number goes up every year. From 2015 - 2019 that number (for domestic parks) has been:

2015 - $295
2016 - $305
2017 - $317
2018 - $345
2019 - $353

Chapek has talked about where they make the most profit and that is clearly from non-AP vacationers. DL is a completely different beast in that the ratio of local AP visitor to non-local guests is very different. If they are willing to eliminate, or significantly modify, the pass system in DL then I would all but guarantee there is a significant change or significant price increase for WDW passes.

For example, they increased revenue by more than 2% domestically in 2019 and had 2% less people. How did they do that? By increasing their average ticket price by 8% that year. In my opinion COVID is a catalyst to make changes to try and keep higher revenue. This year and for years moving forward they will see attendance rates over 50% less than the 2016/17/18 highs. To make up that ground they will need to cut costs (already done) and significantly increase prices. The prices will start to march upwards significantly probably right around the 50th into next year in my opinion.

While they do not publish it any business would track and study each component that goes into the above numbers. for example based on a 3 day ticket $23 of the $58 of increase was from tickets, if the average AP socal AP holder goes 14 days per their daily increase was $5/day (2015 to 2109)

Here is my ticket data source

https://jansworld.net/disney-ticket-history

 

[gskywalker]

It could be just because of a small sample on the ROFR thread but am I the only one who has noticed how the amount of contracts being sent for ROFR has seemed really slow since the cuts to service were announced?

 

[mattpeto]

I've been wrestling purchasing resale DVC since my last vacation February 2020 (Boardwalk Inn).

I'd consider it again when the pandemic is over and Disney shows me that the future will be like the past. But I have to admit that that I'm shaken a bit lately...Killing DME service is a sign that is worrisome. I still feel like another shoe will drop with that, but it will be a salvageable one (like a Disney Genie Airport transfer Bolt-on.)

Purchasing DVC is about the annual trips. It's the pre-Covid Disney I want to return to annually.

 

[Lorana]

. Not true. My DH and I just bought new GOLD APs a few days ago.

But you had APs that you cancelled last summer. That falls into the "renewal" category that Disney is allowing. If you didn't have APs going into Covid, Disney is not allowing *new* APs to be purchased. This is the huge problem my family has. I still have my AP, but I foolishly decided to wait to buy new APs for my husband and kids last year, and now cannot get APs for them.

 

[Sandisw]

But you had APs that you cancelled last summer. That falls into the "renewal" category that Disney is allowing. If you didn't have APs going into Covid, Disney is not allowing *new* APs to be purchased. This is the huge problem my family has. I still have my AP, but I foolishly decided to wait to buy new APs for my husband and kids last year, and now cannot get APs for them.

But It is a new AP simply allowed under a recovery offer, Those vouchers are new and do not have the same dates a a renewal,

I think the point was that the news shared yesterday made it seem as though it was a new policy and it’s not, No one could get a new AP in June and in the fall, Disney opened up new AP sales for a select group of people.

Renewals for APs were never shut down or suspended for anyone.

 

[CarolMN]

But you had APs that you cancelled last summer. That falls into the "renewal" category that Disney is allowing. If you didn't have APs going into Covid, Disney is not allowing *new* APs to be purchased. This is the huge problem my family has. I still have my AP, but I foolishly decided to wait to buy new APs for my husband and kids last year, and now cannot get APs for them.

While it's true that the general public cannot yet buy a new AP, the APs we just purchased are definitely new. The year of admission will not begin until we activate them at Guest Services.

I hope that you will be able to get APs for your family very soon.

 

[tline35]

Not true. My DH and I just bought new GOLD APs a few days ago.

oh? how did you do that. they are not available on the website or ticket outlets.

 

[tline35]

Renewals for APs were never shut down or suspended for anyone.

No one said that renewals were halted or suspended for WDW. All the news is for NEW purchases, not renewals, not previously cancelled.

 

[DL1WDW2]

While it's true that the general public cannot yet buy a new AP, the APs we just purchased are definitely new. The year of admission will not begin until we activate them at Guest Services.

I hope that you will be able to get APs for your family very soon.

So you cancelled your previous unused APs and now Disney is allowing you to change your mind and reissue , since your purchase was in system?
Otherwise Disney Castmembers a are being strict but are allowing special circumstances to renew or purchase.

 

[Sandisw]

No one said that renewals were halted or suspended for WDW. All the news is for NEW purchases, not renewals, not previously cancelled.

I was simply clarifying tthat what is being allowed is more than just renewals. Sorry if that wasn’t clear.

The news articles have been misleading suggesting that no one can get a new AP for WDW, and that this was a new policy...and it’s obviously not.

People whose passes expired during closure or canceled and now want new ones are eligible to get them...they started allowing this in the fall.

Unlike Disneyland, WDW pass holder program has not stopped...which some of the articles implied..

 

[CarolMN]

So you cancelled your previous unused APs and now Disney is allowing you to change your mind and reissue , since your purchase was in system?
Otherwise Disney Castmembers a are being strict but are allowing special circumstances to renew or purchase.

Basically, yes, except our previous APs were not unused. We cancelled them and requested a refund for the unused portion last summer. You have to call the AP VIP pass holder number. If you meet the criteria, they forward your info to a special team who calls you back to make the purchase. There is a very long thread on this over on Theme Parks.

 

[TinkB278]

Gosh, $2000 APs in the future? Looks like I’ll be banking and borrowing and not visiting as often.

 

[Sunnyore]

Basically, yes, except our previous APs were not unused. We cancelled them and requested a refund for the unused portion last summer. You have to call the AP VIP pass holder number. If you meet the criteria, they forward your info to a special team who calls you back to make the purchase. There is a very long thread on this over on Theme Parks.

Did you then have to pay the price for a new gold pass or the renewal price? The cast member I spoke with today made it sounds like my renewal will start 3/31 when my premier pass sunsets even though I won't be able to activate it until my trip in June. I also didn't succeed in purchasing my pass because they eventually hung up on me while waiting for some supervisor to put in the exemption. I really wish they would just call us back when ready to process our payment instead of making us wait on the phone line for 2+ hours.

 

[CarolMN]

Did you then have to pay the price for a new gold pass or the renewal price? The cast member I spoke with today made it sounds like my renewal will start 3/31 when my premier pass sunsets even though I won't be able to activate it until my trip in June. I also didn't succeed in purchasing my pass because they eventually hung up on me while waiting for some supervisor to put in the exemption. I really wish they would just call us back when ready to process our payment instead of making us wait on the phone line for 2+ hours.

We purchased new GOLD APs and paid the price for new APs. The new APs were auto-linked to my MDE account and show the "normal" 2030 expiration date for new unactivated AP purchases. We will need to activate them at Guest Services before they can be used.

 

[sethschroeder]

If they are willing to eliminate, or significantly modify, the pass system in DL then I would all but guarantee there is a significant change or significant price increase for WDW passes.

No because WDW holds like 340k people with with 35k hotel rooms.

DL is like 135k people for capacity. You also have a huge number of additional restaurants and such as well.

AP is not the focus in WDW but they can be made to just fill space. Flip side DL they took over the park and had the park crowded driving away possible day guests.

 

[fumanchu2488]

No because WDW holds like 340k people with with 35k hotel rooms.

DL is like 135k people for capacity. You also have a huge number of additional restaurants and such as well.

AP is not the focus in WDW but they can be made to just fill space. Flip side DL they took over the park and had the park crowded driving away possible day guests.

That’s why I don’t think they ever fully eliminate it but replace it with a more expensive alternative. Also, for the next 2 or 3 years if they can only hold let’s say 200k people average because of COVID and the ripple effects, they would much rather have the majority of those people be on site guests. They are probably leaning towards continuous cost increase that would outpace the last 5 years. In the last 5 years prices have gone up for a Platinum Pass by 60%. If in the next 5 years it goes up another 75% I could see the 2025 annual pass cost being closer to $2100. Meaning a gold pass would be somewhere in the range of $1800.

Time will tell but they are going to have to do something.

 

[sethschroeder]

if they can only hold let’s say 200k people average because of COVID and the ripple effects, they would much rather have the majority of those people be on site guests.

Except right now parks not full and they can simply change blackout days and park reservations to deal with the AP totals in the parks.

Why they would remove it though is based on seeing a large enough AP holder group just buy day tickets instead.

 

[Mom2Anna&Elsa]

We considered buying until the pandemic hit, to be honest. It became painfully aware after that happened that life and DVC ownership would be different for a long while. The DVC resort closures, the changes in how to use points... and then all the changes with the parks. Cutting DME was the last straw, to be honest.

So glad we did not lock in a purchase that would force us to travel to Disney regularly.

 

[gskywalker]

I just received a call from our DVC direct agent about our plan to buy direct. I had sent a message a few days ago letting him know that we wouldn't be going forward because of the cuts impacting the ease of a disney vacation. He said that companies are just trying to survive, which I would agree with for many other companies but Disney is nearing all times highs on their common stock, has secured plenty of financing and the issue isn't the cost, the issue is that they aren't even offering the service anymore. They really should have continued the service with a charge per person(magical express, luggage when there is a company to use, etc). While it would have cost us a lot to pay for the per person charge, I like having it all be under the Disney umbrella, so that I have someone to hold accountable if they screw up and don't have me there in time for my flight, damage my daughter's wheel chair, etc. etc.

 

[RoseGold]

I really hope for the return of some kind of AP. It can be after 1PM, or weekday only, or tons of blackout dates, or whatever, I'll work with that. But my DVC plans don't work without some kind of annual pass.