Stopped considering DVC this week. Anyone else?

[Chuck96]

We have been eyeballing a first purchase (resale) early in 2022. Have half the money put aside already. Been thinking on this pretty heavily for the past few years, and rented Poly early last year (pre-COVID) and renting BCV this September and touring the other options (VGF, CCV, AKL) on a dedicated Saturday. It isn't these specific decisions that give me pause (though they really matter) - it is what they portend. As said by others...Disney prices go in one direction, but perks clearly can go both ways. And right now, I think we are EARLY into a negative perk/positive cost vector that will last several years at least, until Disney possibly needs a new Renaissance. Now we love Disney, and we always will. My wife envisions trips there for us, for our DS' (17) family, for our friends (as a gift). But all this tumult gives me a lot of pause for the perceived value of the investment, especially as the number of unknowns (and risks) continues to increase.

In the end, I think we will plan to continue to set aside the money as if we plan to purchase, and we will re-evaluate as the parks start to open closer to normalcy. Unfortunately, I believe the "bottom line" direction will continue for a few years after normalcy is achieved. I was concerned when Mr. Chapek took over...bean counters are never visionaries. I understand COVID has created unprecedented stress, but I also have little interest in paying premium prices for average experiences. I'll keep an eye on prices, perks, and corporate direction before committing any long term investments. Kind of a bummer after a few years of planning, but no worries. Better to see more clearly sooner than later.

 

[vacay77]

It’s definitely making me take a pause. We are hoping to go in May-we are west coasters, so most our trips are to DL and we own at GCV. My eldest hasn’t been to WDW in 12 years, we got cheap flights, so we are hoping to do a week at the world and three nights at universal. I only have points for three or four of those days-don’t want to use my GCV points-so was going to do a transfer or perhaps a cash stay at a FW cabin. But when I really calculate what I get for on-site-well, it’s nothing except distance. So I think we will do the rest of our week offsite (we use Lyft for most our transportation anyway), a few days at AKV with the animals, then back to the fabulous Hard Rock at Universal which still offers the express pass benefit.

I love staying on property when visiting Universal Studios. The express passes have been well worth it for us.

 

[Randywatson79]

We bought into DVC about 18 months ago... Perfect timing, right?

Anyway, I always viewed DVC as buying into a base deluxe accomodation in central Florida as much as it was Disney. My kids are young and I figured we'll be heavy on the Disney for a while. But if I'm renting a car anyhow, we'll just be in Disney parks less, wandering around central Florida more. Universal, Cape Canaveral, Legoland, a day at the ocean, and on and on. We of course won't abandon Disney Parks. But if Chapek keeps cutting things, we'll be in them less and less.

 

[tline35]

But if Chapek keeps cutting things, we'll be in them less and less.

Agreed. I'm not sure what the plan is for Chapek, aka Lex Luther ... but they seem to be going out of their way to make their park experiences LESS ENJOYABLE. They even just announced they will not sell any NEW AP in WDW. they will only renew. That is pure cutting ... having nothing to do with covid and low capacity.

We have a May 2021 trip, and have already decided to go OFF-Site for accommodations, and Less days in Disney parks, more time in Universal and Busch Gardens, Tampa. If they keep at this cutting, our May trip will be our last Disney trip for a looooong time.

Lex Luther is getting his way. We are going to his parks and resorts LESS, and spending less money when we are there. Cutting expenses is a two-way street.

 

[fumanchu2488]

We bought into DVC about 18 months ago... Perfect timing, right?

Anyway, I always viewed DVC as buying into a base deluxe accomodation in central Florida as much as it was Disney. My kids are young and I figured we'll be heavy on the Disney for a while. But if I'm renting a car anyhow, we'll just be in Disney parks less, wandering around central Florida more. Universal, Cape Canaveral, Legoland, a day at the ocean, and on and on. We of course won't abandon Disney Parks. But if Chapek keeps cutting things, we'll be in them less and less.

We are in the same exact boat. Bought June 2019, haven’t used any points and have 2 small children. We bought a small contract (100) at RIV with the plan to go every year or other year. We have a vacation booked for October this year. We want to add 50 to get 1 BR every trip but I was considering adding 150 to go more often (10 nights per year). With these changes I would never want to have 250 points and feel like I needed to go every year. I’m concerned now that maybe 150 is too much as that is a trip every 15-18 months in a 1 BR. I may just buy the 24 OTU points every year I need them in the short term to see where Disney lands on the perks coming back.

 

[TinkB278]

They even just announced they will not sell any NEW AP in WDW. they will only renew. That is pure cutting ... having nothing to do with covid and low capacity.

They did?? Did the give a timeframe for how long they are planning on not selling new APs?

 

[Sandisw]

They did?? Did the give a timeframe for how long they are planning on not selling new APs?

I read the article and it appears this is nothing new. Simply they are suspended indefinitely for WDW and no new passes are being sold which has been in effect since the spring.

 

[tline35]

I read the article and it appears this is nothing new. Simply they are suspended indefinitely for WDW and no new passes are being sold which has been in effect since the spring.

What makes this sound like bad news, this was already announced as "suspended AP sales" months ago. To re-announce the same policy, doesn't sound like Disney. This sounds more permanent.

https://www.fox13news.com/news/walt...dXgR62-a0cnmQD5rLwGIZiFNbRi6V4_sV4XJ5LBo0tVro

 

[TinkB278]

I read the article and it appears this is nothing new. Simply they are suspended indefinitely for WDW and no new passes are being sold which has been in effect since the spring.

Just read the article and I agree with your assessment, no new news.

 

[Sandisw]

What makes this sound like bad news, this was already announced as "suspended AP sales" months ago. To re-announce the same policy, doesn't sound like Disney. This sounds more permanent.

https://www.fox13news.com/news/walt...dXgR62-a0cnmQD5rLwGIZiFNbRi6V4_sV4XJ5LBo0tVro

The suspension of new AP sales has been in place. It has not ended the program like DL. Someone I know just got their reinstated pass today from a canceled one so they are still allowing new passes.

I also read that someone who has the premier pass was given the choice of buying a WDW AP as a replacement for that program being ended,

i have read a few different articles and some posts in different threads are sharing the same thing. It is reporting on the DL program ending and sharing news that WDW is not selling new APs...which is not new news

ETA. Posted same time as you!

 

[awestbrook23]

Yes, and keep in mind - Disney doesn't typically release big news like that to an exclusive news source. They always have a press release instead. Just like the discontinuation of the Disneyland pass, which included a more personal note and reassurances that new memberships to DL are planned for the distant future, Disney likes to be the one to narrate its own news.

 

[CarolMN]

They even just announced they will not sell any NEW AP in WDW. they will only renew. That is pure cutting ... having nothing to do with covid and low capacity.

. Not true. My DH and I just bought new GOLD APs a few days ago.

 

[bookwormde]

Given the reaction to the DL AP ending, I think WDW will at this point just continue to not sell new APs to the general public and wait to have the new AP program detailed before announcing the changes. At some level we can look to whatever DL does for a new program as a potential model

 

[Eric Smith]

Given the reaction to the DL AP ending, I think WDW will at this point just continue to not sell new APs to the general public and wait to have the new AP program detailed before announcing the changes. At some level we can look to whatever DL does for a new program as a potential model

Disneyland and WDW are different operations. Just because Disneyland's APs are changing doesn't necessarily mean that WDW's APs are going to change as well. The two AP programs weren't the same in the past anyways. Disneyland is also in a very different situation with APs than Disney World is.

 

[bookwormde]

Disneyland and WDW are different operations. Just because Disneyland's APs are changing doesn't necessarily mean that WDW's APs are going to change as well. The two AP programs weren't the same in the past anyways. Disneyland is also in a very different situation with APs than Disney World is.

This would be true if they were not facing the same issue of inadequate average daily visit ticket revenue. With that said I while I expect similarities they are significantly different so each management team will select different details to reach the same goal.

 

[Sandisw]

Given the reaction to the DL AP ending, I think WDW will at this point just continue to not sell new APs to the general public and wait to have the new AP program detailed before announcing the changes. At some level we can look to whatever DL does for a new program as a potential model

I think the DL program ending...besides people saying they have wanted changes for years...has to do with no opening date insight. Allowing people to renew for a closed park only cause future refunds to be needed. Better to simply end it all, refund everyone to date, and then, when they know it will open again, sell the new and approved.

If WDW was giving up these types of passes, they would have never allowed new ones to be purchased for those who canceled during closure. As I mentioned, I know of someone who just got new ones yesterday.

With WDW open, no reason not to sell eventually. With the park reservation system in place, they have a way to control how many days can be scheduled so even with it being an every day park hopper, they now have limits in place.

 

[bookwormde]

I think the DL program ending...besides people saying they have wanted changes for years...has to do with no opening date insight. Allowing people to renew for a closed park only cause future refunds to be needed. Better to simply end it all, refund everyone to date, and then, when they know it will open again, sell the new and approved.

If WDW was giving up these types of passes, they would have never allowed new ones to be purchased for those who canceled during closure. As I mentioned, I know of someone who just got new ones yesterday.

With WDW open, no reason not to sell eventually. With the park reservation system in place, they have a way to control how many days can be scheduled so even with it being an every day park hopper, they now have limits in place.

I agree that a full stop will not likely happen at WDW for the reasons you refernce, but I do not see selling a limited number of "old" WDW APs is any guarantee that there will not be significant changes in the program.

Standard APs have gone up 50% in the last 3 years if that continues we could be looking at $2000+ APs in a couple of years, At that level some of the options that have been discussed on DIS might be attractive alternative to the current program.

 

[Eric Smith]

This would be true if they were not facing the same issue of inadequate average daily visit ticket revenue. With that said I while I expect similarities they are significantly different so each management team will select different details to reach the same goal.

I don't think ticket revenue has anything to do with why Disneyland refunded all APs and they're overhauling the program. Disneyland has the problem where there are 10x times the amount of AP holders as there is maximum capacity in the parks. The vast majority of those AP holders are locals. Assuming their parks have to open at reduced capacity (probably around 25%) whenever they can reopen, you'll end up with a bunch of ticked off AP holders who can't get in to a park even though they paid for an AP. That's a recipe for disaster. It makes sense to refund all APs and not reintroduce a program until there is sufficient capacity in the parks to support it.

With all that said, I think Disneyland is also taking the opportunity to make changes to the AP program that they probably have wanted to do for quite some time. We'll have to see if those changes are good for the consumer or not. It'll probably be a mixed bag.

Disney World doesn't have nearly as many AP holders as Disneyland does and I would guess that a larger proportion of AP holders aren't local. It looks like WDW is able to provide access to AP holders at a sufficient level even with the parks at reduced capacities. It makes sense that they don't want to sell any extra APs right now due to that reduced capacity. I expect that APs will go back on sale once park capacity increases to a level where WDW can support it.

 

[bookwormde]

I don't think ticket revenue has anything to do with why Disneyland refunded all APs and they're overhauling the program. Disneyland has the problem where there are 10x times the amount of AP holders as there is maximum capacity in the parks. The vast majority of those AP holders are locals. Assuming their parks have to open at reduced capacity (probably around 25%) whenever they can reopen, you'll end up with a bunch of ticked off AP holders who can't get in to a park even though they paid for an AP. That's a recipe for disaster. It makes sense to refund all APs and not reintroduce a program until there is sufficient capacity in the parks to support it.

With all that said, I think Disneyland is also taking the opportunity to make changes to the AP program that they probably have wanted to do for quite some time. We'll have to see if those changes are good for the consumer or not. It'll probably be a mixed bag.

Disney World doesn't have nearly as many AP holders as Disneyland does and I would guess that a larger proportion of AP holders aren't local. It looks like WDW is able to provide access to AP holders at a sufficient level even with the parks at reduced capacities. It makes sense that they don't want to sell any extra APs right now due to that reduced capacity. I expect that APs will go back on sale once park capacity increases to a level where WDW can support it.

Everything at Disney has to do with revenue and profits, though I think you are spot on in that the timing was to help manage reopening. What the program morphs into will be based on raising ticket revenue pre day/visit

 

[fumanchu2488]

Everything at Disney has to do with revenue and profits, though I think you are spot on in that the timing was to help manage reopening. What the program morphs into will be based on raising ticket revenue pre day/visit

The metric they track (even in their corporate earnings report) is $ spent/guest/day. Historically, that number goes up every year. From 2015 - 2019 that number (for domestic parks) has been:

2015 - $295
2016 - $305
2017 - $317
2018 - $345
2019 - $353

Chapek has talked about where they make the most profit and that is clearly from non-AP vacationers. DL is a completely different beast in that the ratio of local AP visitor to non-local guests is very different. If they are willing to eliminate, or significantly modify, the pass system in DL then I would all but guarantee there is a significant change or significant price increase for WDW passes.

For example, they increased revenue by more than 2% domestically in 2019 and had 2% less people. How did they do that? By increasing their average ticket price by 8% that year. In my opinion COVID is a catalyst to make changes to try and keep higher revenue. This year and for years moving forward they will see attendance rates over 50% less than the 2016/17/18 highs. To make up that ground they will need to cut costs (already done) and significantly increase prices. The prices will start to march upwards significantly probably right around the 50th into next year in my opinion.