ROFR Thread July to Sept 2023 *PLEASE SEE FIRST POST FOR INSTRUCTIONS & FORMATTING TOOL*

[AstroBlasters]

Thank you! So, looks like we are now averaging in the $120s vs $130s that seemed to be it from last year!

Looks like we may be getting to a point for enough sold and far enough in from opening to get some real data!

Preview of VDH resale in 3 years?

 

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

Preview of VDH resale in 3 years?

I think VDH resale is going to be dramatically impacted by whether or not they start expanding the DLR parks west (with a gate for DL closer to the DH/VDH resort). I think either way it will do a little better than RIV in present day price, but might be a lower % of its initial direct sales price.

Obviously the strength of the economy and interest rates will have a significant impact also.

 

[sndral]

I think VDH resale is going to be dramatically impacted by whether or not they start expanding the DLR parks west (with a gate for DL closer to the DH/VDH resort). I think either way it will do a little better than RIV in present day price, but might be a lower % of its initial direct sales price.

Obviously the strength of the economy and interest rates will have a significant impact also.

There’s not much west coast competition for VDH either, it’ll be up against the really pricey VGC, but potential east coast DVC buyers will have a lot of other resorts to choose from. Thus I expect VDH resale to perform better price wise than Riviera resale.

 

[AwfulWaffle]

I tried for this one! If you don’t mind answering, are you paying maintenance fees on the 2023 points?

It had to be full because I was 100 and I paid all but was still beat out.

 

[tom1944]

Here is Riviera for September. The average per point was $129.

			SEPTEMBER RIVIERA RESALES
TOTAL COST	POINTS	USE YEAR	PRICE PER POINT	CONTRACT DATE	TITLE COMPANY
$ 25,000.00	200​	OCTOBER	$ 125.00	8/24/2023​	CAMMY SMITH
$ 24,150.00	210​	JUNE	$ 115.00	8/21/2023​	DUNCAN TITLE
$ 15,900.00	100​	OCTOBER	$ 159.00	7/31/2023​	MAGIC VACATION
$ 20,400.00	150​	DECEMBER	$ 136.00	8/4/2023​	MAGIC VACATION
$ 35,750.00	286​	MARCH	$ 125.00	8/30/2023​	MAGIC VACATION
$ 25,000.00	200​	OCTOBER	$ 125.00	8/28/2023​	MAGIC VACATION
$ 22,400.00	175​	DECEMBER	$ 128.00	8/29/2023​	MAGIC VACATION
$ 38,025.00	325​	DECEMBER	$ 117.00	8/16/2023​	MAGIC VACATION
$ 42,600.00	300​	?	$ 142.00	9/16/2023​	FIRST AMERICAN
$ 34,290.00	270​	DECEMBER	$ 127.00	9/15/2023​	MAGIC VACATION
$ 19,350.00	150​	DECEMBER	$ 129.00	9/12/2023​	MAGIC VACATION
$ 16,375.00	125​	DECEMBER	$ 131.00	9/7/2023​	MAGIC VACATION
$ 26,035.00	205​	DECEMBER	$ 127.00	9/6/2023​	MAGIC VACATION
$ 37,800.00	300​	FEBRUARY	$ 126.00	9/13/2023​	MTI
$ 42,600.00	300​	DECEMBER	$ 142.00	8/5/2023​	MTI
$ 7,250.00	50​	DECEMBER	$ 145.00	8/28/2023​	MTI
$ 13,000.00	100​	SEPTEMBER	$ 130.00	9/22/2023​	CAMMY SMITH
$ 445,925.00	3446​

 

[thelionqueen]

Should I be concerned that on day 29 I still haven’t heard anything? All these fast ROFRs have me paranoid something is wrong.

I wouldn’t be. The price you paid is a decent bit higher than other contracts that have passed. Have seen some in the high 80’s pass. Of course you never know, but if I were you, I wouldn’t think twice

 

[thelionqueen]

I think VDH resale is going to be dramatically impacted by whether or not they start expanding the DLR parks west (with a gate for DL closer to the DH/VDH resort). I think either way it will do a little better than RIV in present day price, but might be a lower % of its initial direct sales price.

Obviously the strength of the economy and interest rates will have a significant impact also.

I would’ve thought that as well until my recent visit this month (that Disney would need another gate). I can say, without any doubt whatsoever at all, the appetite for luxury accommodations at DLR is high. With all the little motels surrounding the resort, the need for deluxe options is significant. No need to build another gate there. I mean it’s needed, don’t get me wrong, but financially, there’s no need to build more to make VDH more valuable. It’s highly valuable and now I understand why they’re not offering great incentives.

I’ll be the first to admit I was extremely disappointed by the renderings and offerings. I wanted to love it so much, yet didn’t. My visit changed my mind completely. Didn’t expect it at all. I will be buying VDH direct in the next few years. Was considering buying the same day as my visit, but decided to wait for better incentives.

I wholeheartedly agree that VDH will be more popular than RIV if pricing of the two is similar. Note that I don’t like RIV so take that view FWIW.

IMHO, VDH’s popularity, location, low point chart, amenities & more will set the platform for it to increase in value every year. I do think it’ll be on par like GCV as far as availability difficulty @ 7m. And forget about booking a duo studio if you’re not an owner there. Apart from my personal love of the resort, I believe it’ll skyrocket in value once it’s sold out. I’ll not be having FOMO on this one…count on that!

Adding the VDH banner in……

 

[tom1944]

Are you seeing more 160 point contracts at BLT? I think 160 might have been the minimum purchase for a new member when BLT was in active sales, so there are likely to be a lot that size.

Here are the current contracts between 150-200 points. February is the most common use year.
150= 10
160= 69
175=2
190=2
193=1
200=28

total 112

 

[DonMacGregor]

I just received a short response saying. Not yet. You’ll know when we know.

Makes me feel like they responded without actually looking into it.

Any update?

 

[DonMacGregor]

I tried for this one! If you don’t mind answering, are you paying maintenance fees on the 2023 points?

Yes. Not really sure how I could get out of that. If I were the seller, with all of the 2022 points safely banked and all of the 2023 points also available, there's zero chance I wouldn't want the 2023 dues back. Sure, it's late in the calendar year, but that's always the case with a December UY, and the 2022 points are worth way more than the $450 in dues. At $105 PP, and all of the 2022 points banked, I just made a full-price offer and was done with it.

 

[DonMacGregor]

Holy cow! Congrats!

Anybody have theories as to why Disney is suddenly pedal to the metal on approving ROFRs? I’m a perennial pessimist, but it makes me think they are worried the market might collapse and want to get resales closed ASAP.

There's someone on the thread who has been (as of Wednesday at least) waiting on ROFR on a SSR contract since August 29.

 

[DonMacGregor]

It had to be full because I was 100 and I paid all but was still beat out.

Yup. At $105 PP and all of the 2022 points banked, I wasn't going to waste my time trying to save a few bucks and offered full price.

 

[DonMacGregor]

I wouldn’t be. The price you paid is a decent bit higher than other contracts that have passed. Have seen some in the high 80’s pass. Of course you never know, but if I were you, I wouldn’t think twice

At this point (32 days after alleged submission), I'd definitely be worried something went sideways. There's only a tiny chance they would grab it based on the handful of contracts that have been taken back all year, so I don't think it's a matter of them exercising ROFR, but I'd definitely be concerned that something has gone sideways, either at the broker end or through a paperwork snafu at DVC. It's definitely a significant outlier, based on the average ROFR response times over the last several months.

 

[MyDogTink]

This is great data. Thanks for sharing. I would be surprised if there are many RIV contracts to share. Would love to see PVB.

It really surprised me that the mean price point in the bigger BLT contracts seemed higher than the smaller ones.

I noticed that, too and was surprised. And I’m seeing listings much higher (ex -$160s). I suppose buyers are heavily negotiating and sellers are accepting.

Thanks @tom1944 for compiling this data.

 

[Disfamwa]

Yes. Not really sure how I could get out of that. If I were the seller, with all of the 2022 points safely banked and all of the 2023 points also available, there's zero chance I wouldn't want the 2023 dues back. Sure, it's late in the calendar year, but that's always the case with a December UY, and the 2022 points are worth way more than the $450 in dues. At $105 PP, and all of the 2022 points banked, I just made a full-price offer and was done with it.

Thank you! It’s a great contract!

 

[tom1944]

I noticed that, too and was surprised. And I’m seeing listings much higher (ex -$160s). I suppose buyers are heavily negotiating and sellers are accepting.

Thanks @tom1944 for compiling this data.

No problem. I enjoy it as long as I keep in from getting overwhelming.

I will do a new spreadsheet for October with this information. I will do 5 resorts. AKV, BLT, CCV, POLY and Riv. I want to limit it to contracts with 100-300 points since I believe those are the most common sized contracts and reflect the market more accurately than small or extremely large contracts. It also makes doing this easier.

Let me know if you feel there is any other data you think is valuable to enter.

			OCTOBER RESALES	100-300 POINTS
TOTAL COST	POINTS	USE YEAR	PRICE PER POINT	CONTRACT DATE	TITLE COMPANY	RESORT	RECORDED DATE

 

[AwfulWaffle]

Yup. At $105 PP and all of the 2022 points banked, I wasn't going to waste my time trying to save a few bucks and offered full price.

Mine was less about saving a few bucks and more like my wife is going to divorce me if I buy many more points before 2024 due prices are announced. I put a number I was good with if it wasn’t high enough then oh well back to waiting on Poly 2

 

[DonMacGregor]

Mine was less about saving a few bucks and more like my wife is going to divorce me if I buy many more points before 2024 due prices are announced. I put a number I was good with if it wasn’t high enough then oh well back to waiting on Poly 2

Yeah, it's not like the money tree in the back yard has started bearing fruit here either, but we have been building up Aulani points specifically this year, with no sights on any other resorts, so when a small-point, December UY comes up, we go after it pretty aggressively.

 

[AwfulWaffle]

Yeah, it's not like the money tree in the back yard has started bearing fruit here either, but we have been building up Aulani points specifically this year, with no sights on any other resorts, so when a small-point, December UY comes up, we go after it pretty aggressively.

Yup it was a good price for double points and a small contract so congrats. I’m an east coaster so no big deal. We usually vaca at WDW but are doing our first ever WDL next year so hopefully we make it a routine but airfare for 5 is painful so thanks for keeping us married to WDW

 

[DonMacGregor]

Yup it was a good price for double points and a small contract so congrats. I’m an east coaster so no big deal. We usually vaca at WDW but are doing our first ever WDL next year so hopefully we make it a routine but airfare for 5 is painful so thanks for keeping us married to WDW

Yeah, we're SoCal (OC) locals, so we split our trips between WDW and Hawaii (usually one in each direction each year). Growing up, Hawaii was our vacation destination, so Aulani was a no-brainer. Sure, it's on Oahu, but once you're outside Honolulu and up on the North Shore, or Windward side of the island, it's a great place to be. Kapolei isn't too bad either, but it IS a little dry and brown for my taste, so we don't do a ton of resort days.