Predictions for Dec 2024 Incentives?

[vdangelo239]

How many poly points do you have? Looking at getting maybe 75 points to combine for a fall trip every other year.

150 at Poly. We sold a 50pt Poly resale I had to help pay for the direct Riv purchase. Mainly studio people - the 150 is perfect

 

[matt and beth]

I feel like you both were born this century. Can I get cliff notes for an old guy? lol

OMG hilarious! Yes the old guy, has seen a few recessions. A buddy just laid off 60 people from his department of 100 at Nissan. Another had mandatory layoff at GM as they are removing to a small building elsewhere in Detroit before Silicone. Another insurance adjuster friend has their department of 80 laid off. Not born this century maybe the one before… You asked for the tea leaves you got it! Don’t bi$&? about what I see

 

[matt and beth]

Cringe

Please elaborate

 

[Chili327]

OMG hilarious! Yes the old guy, has seen a few recessions. A buddy just laid off 60 people from his department of 100 at Nissan. Another had mandatory layoff at GM as they are removing to a small building elsewhere in Detroit before Silicone. Another insurance adjuster friend has their department of 80 laid off. Not born this century maybe the one before… You asked for the tea leaves you got it! Don’t bi$&? about what I see

Nope. I’m still confused. I wasn’t sure what you were replying to… and I’m still not sure. lol


Let’s start over. What was this a reply to?

Beginning of the year so so. By June, Nissan is out of business and GM announcing a move to Silicone Valley (after bailing on Ren Cen). Economy finally takes a plunge after many years of strong growth. DVC sales take a plunge because in reality, this year has been a strung on farce, economy is struggling, and everyone backs off expendable income. Hold on!

 

[matt and beth]

Nope. I’m still confused. I wasn’t sure what you were replying to… and I’m still not sure. lol

I’m sorry. Asking for a crystal ball for 2024? Economy tanks.. DVC offers more incentives

 

[LittleBitGoofy]

[insert side-eye monkey puppet meme here]

 

[Chili327]

I’m sorry. Asking for a crystal ball for 2024? Economy tanks.. DVC offers more incentives

Are you talking about the Dec 2024 incentives that started coming out this morning, or are you talking about what will happen with the 2042 resorts? (2042 resorts was a different thread so I feel like that might be what you’re referring to)

 

[Mexacajun]

Are you talking about the Dec 2024 incentives that started coming out this morning, or are you talking about what will happen with the 2042 resorts? (2042 resorts was a different thread so I feel like that might be what you’re referring to)

I think they are saying the incentives released today are not great. And they will be much better later in the year because we are headed toward tough financial times. That is my read on their message. Pretty much, don’t buy now because later next year we will get great incentives.

 

[Mikey15]

It feels like the next recession or at least asset downturn has been ‘just around the corner’ for a couple of years now in discourse, but it hasn’t happened yet. The broken clock will be right eventually.

Regardless, this incentive around is again not too tempting. When I see a promo for a ‘sold out’ resort I get excited, but this $240pp for CCV business is a heck of a lot more than the recent OKW or SSR or even AKV ones. Not to mention I was recently tempted by a 75pt CCV resale for only $129 asking! (Delayed close). That’s half price in comparison!

 

[bakerr6]

Doubtful we will see any material move downwards in the economy through the first 3 quarters of 2025. Eventually the economy will soften, but i wouldn't count on it for next year.

Layoffs are happening due to the expectation of increasing tariffs. Automotive industry is cyclical and did very well during the pandemic. I wouldn't consider shifts made in the automotive industry to be a good indicator of economic health.

It seems like JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America and most of the other larger banks revised their expectations upwards as well.

 

[Patmcpsu]

I am fairly new to DVC. Right now, interest rates are in the 9-10% territory for direct purchases and 12% for resale. Are they always that high, or do they adjust based on the market?

If they do fluctuate, the "DVC Bubble" from a couple years ago was probably the result of low interest rates in a pretty-decent economy (revenge travel contributed too). Even if they don't fluctuate, buyers could find cheap money elsewhere to fund their purchase.

My point is that if there's a recession (which we're overdue for), low interest rates would help offset it.

Edit: Speaking of incentives, promotional financing rates may be more effective in this environment than 5-10% discounts.

 

[LittleBitGoofy]

There aren't any Welcome Home or Disney Visa discounts around at the moment in this cycle, right? Making sure I didn't miss anything.

 

[byurick]

There aren't any Welcome Home or Disney Visa discounts around at the moment in this cycle, right? Making sure I didn't miss anything.

I didn't see any of those listed nor any chance at magical beginnings unless I missed it in the fine print somewhere.

 

[patm95]

There aren't any Welcome Home or Disney Visa discounts around at the moment in this cycle, right? Making sure I didn't miss anything.

I’ve heard others say magical beginnings is available for some resorts but you have to ask your guide. I havent verdiied this yet though.

 

[eticketplease]

I am fairly new to DVC. Right now, interest rates are in the 9-10% territory for direct purchases and 12% for resale. Are they always that high, or do they adjust based on the market?

If they do fluctuate, the "DVC Bubble" from a couple years ago was probably the result of low interest rates in a pretty-decent economy (revenge travel contributed too). Even if they don't fluctuate, buyers could find cheap money elsewhere to fund their purchase.

My point is that if there's a recession (which we're overdue for), low interest rates would help offset it.

Edit: Speaking of incentives, promotional financing rates may be more effective in this environment than 5-10% discounts.

As far as I know it seems like the rates are always the same range (9-20%) whether for direct or resale.

The rates are based on Credit but it doesn't seem to go down below 9% even with excellent credit.

I just did the little calculator for giggles on Monera putting in 160 points @ $100.
It came back with 17.9% interest and wanted you to place a down payment of 43%.
Now that it is what it defaulted to at 12 year term with no credit check but that just floored me when I saw those numbers.

People that do acquire financing for DVC seem to acquire better rates through a HELOC if I remember correctly from people talking about.

Edit: Speaking of incentives, promotional financing rates may be more effective in this environment than 5-10% discounts.

However some purchase with cash (Travel/Cash back Cards that are then paid off immediately to get the rewards) while others do choose to finance.
With offering incentives it allows people in both camps to advantage of them.

 

[lexxus379]

I’ve heard others say magical beginnings is available for some resorts but you have to ask your guide. I havent verdiied this yet though.

My guide said yesterday MB is available at all active selling resorts except Poly. Starts at 150 pts

 

[upritbass]

There aren't any Welcome Home or Disney Visa discounts around at the moment in this cycle, right? Making sure I didn't miss anything.

Magic Key holder discount $1500

 

[upritbass]

I think they are saying the incentives released today are not great. And they will be much better later in the year because we are headed toward tough financial times. That is my read on their message. Pretty much, don’t buy now because later next year we will get great incentives.

The current incentives for VDH are better than the Autumn incentives. Will the future ‘great incentives’ offset the price increase coming at the beginning of the year?

 

[Mexacajun]

The current incentives for VDH are better than the Autumn incentives. Will the future ‘great incentives’ offset the price increase coming at the beginning of the year?

I have no clue. I was just translating what I read. I have no clue on any of this.

 

[Brob2132]

Just anecdotally throwing this out there: think the next round might be an above average incentive so they can also spin it as a get in before the price rises in Feb.