Plans have been filed for DVC expansion at Caribbean Beach Resort

[DanBoris]

That's what I think we're both saying. This is not as "easy and inexpensive" as some think. My husband who is a pro can't see an "easy and inexpensive" solution, DanBoris who I think is also a structural engineer can't see it, and others, who aren't trained in these fields, don't see it either. They're not saying it's impossible, but the location does not lead to an "easy" solution just because of its close proximity. I think if it did, we would have seen access to Epcot a whole lot sooner.

I am not a structural engineer and am not trained in these fields. I am just commenting based on what I can see that it's not likely that it's as easy and inexpensive as some might think.

 

[DanBoris]

Just a guess, but I think it's something like South Florida Water managment District. The plans are showing water flow through the basins.

Looks thoroughly unimpressive to me. I don't see the splash that would make as a DVC of any level.

If you are judging just based on the plans, note that the plans only show things that will impact storm water control. There are a lot of changes that could be made to the resort that wouldn't show up in these plans.

 

[DanBoris]

I love CBR, but if they build a tower it will ruin the feel of the entire resort. Are they really building a tower for this?

There is nothing in the plans that directly indicates it's a tower, but it seems likely that is what is going to be built.

 

[Madonna3]

I am not a structural engineer and am not trained in these fields. I am just commenting based on what I can see that it's not likely that it's as easy and inexpensive as some might think.

Ok. I thought somewhere I had read you were. Either way, amateur and expert agree, it's not likely nor easy.

 

[sachilles]

I was only jesting in another thread. This is still tongue in cheek. The people mover in tomorrowland is approximately 4000 feet in transport length, not including the loading carousel.

If you were to loop from the cbr building site, and loop around the building pad between Germany and the African outpost, it is roughly the same distance.

I'm not saying they are connecting cbr and epcot. However, might it be a clever savings if the connection transportation is also an "attraction". The boats are popular but not quick, nor likely cheap. A ski lift is less than practical with the weather in FL. Gondolas don't have the capacity.

Might the easy(ier) button be a gateway IN CBR, with an attraction/transportation that loops into the rumored new country for the expansion pad. Some sort of omnimover should be reliable enough, carry enough people with enough speed to work.

The people mover concept was designed for just that. Seems like it might be a more ADA compliant option as well.

To be clear, I'm not suggesting moving the people mover from tomorrowland. Simply cloning an updated version.

What does the hive think something like that would cost in todays market? I'm assuming an elevated level to clear the roads etc. Suppose you could just as easily do moving walk ways, or a regular walkway long the transport path at that point.
You'd still have to address back of the house scenery unless it's enclosed or restricted views.

 

[micfan]

Been reading along with great amusement and thought I'd throw out a couple questions/comments. First wasn't the land between CBR and HS part of the wetland swap awhile ago? If it was then I've got to assume it's meant for development. I also don't think management is going to devote a large capital expenditure for infrastructure just for one property (excluding AoA and PoP since there is no points to sell there) so I don't think there will be any CBR direct access, thus not DVC. My guess is that CBR has just about reached its' end of life and the new development will replace old moderate hotel rooms with new moderate hotel rooms. The new rooms will be built with an eye to be operated with more efficiency and occupancy and being new with a view of fireworks will justify a better rack rate. All of this providing a better margin on rooms that are proven to sell and needed to be replaced anyway. I think at one point they may have been looking at DVC here but went with plan b when it was determined that direct access wasn't feasible.

As far as the wetland between CBR and HS this is where I would see DVC going, not just one but maybe as many as 3 resorts (over time). The reason I say this is by having 3 resorts it would create a critical mass of development that would justify spending capital on new transportation infrastructure (what ever it may be). With the proximity to HS by the time they come online they should easily garner a $200+ per point rate and maintaining deluxe status.

Just my thoughts.

 

[mickeyfanachey1999]

Ahhh...well played, sir...

I KNEW you were a Carib-ite!!!! You're Canadian...but is usually the BRITS that would flock there for 21 days at a clip. They couldn't get enough of the place. Must be something about commonwealth countries?

You just copped to the phenomenon I stated earlier in the thread: that somehow psychologically Caribbean equals a trip to Disney world AND the Caribbean. I don't agree at all...but that's not something I haven't seen before.

It's your place so I won't fight your opinion of it. Still doesn't justify many of the dvc stances...ok

Doesn't change that it's landlocked and takes an hour to take a bus to Epcot...ok

But my final question:

Poll some of those pesky/crotchety dvc owners around here with this:

Given equal prices/incentives/contract lengths/point charts, which would you choose to buy/book:

1. Wilderness lodge post Enhancements
2. Caribbean dvc with new dedicated amenties but no direct access.

What's your guess?

Now ask the same question but with new walkway/link of some sort

What's your guess?

I think my signature says it all

 

[LaidBackDad]

I was only jesting in another thread. This is still tongue in cheek. The people mover in tomorrowland is approximately 4000 feet in transport length, not including the loading carousel.

If you were to loop from the cbr building site, and loop around the building pad between Germany and the African outpost, it is roughly the same distance.

I'm not saying they are connecting cbr and epcot. However, might it be a clever savings if the connection transportation is also an "attraction". The boats are popular but not quick, nor likely cheap. A ski lift is less than practical with the weather in FL. Gondolas don't have the capacity.

Might the easy(ier) button be a gateway IN CBR, with an attraction/transportation that loops into the rumored new country for the expansion pad. Some sort of omnimover should be reliable enough, carry enough people with enough speed to work.

The people mover concept was designed for just that. Seems like it might be a more ADA compliant option as well.

To be clear, I'm not suggesting moving the people mover from tomorrowland. Simply cloning an updated version.

What does the hive think something like that would cost in todays market? I'm assuming an elevated level to clear the roads etc. Suppose you could just as easily do moving walk ways, or a regular walkway long the transport path at that point.
You'd still have to address back of the house scenery unless it's enclosed or restricted views.

I think a boat connection is most likely; but, it could be any number of things. I personally like the water ride transport diagrammed earlier in the thread better . I think the point is, connecting would be way to easier than people want to admit and there are any number of options to link the resort with the parks that will work. If people keep exaggerating the cost of such a simple project it's going to be cheaper to just put in a new monorail .

 

[Madonna3]

it's going to be cheaper to just put in a new monorail .

I wish

 

[dlavender]

If people keep exaggerating the cost of such a simple project it's going to be cheaper to just put in a new monorail

Well if a fence costs 15 billion...

A walkway is the cheapest option. But you will have recurring costs associated with it and not to mention the constant costs of running another entrance/exit to the park. The biggest hurdle IMO is not the walkway, but that entrance/exit. Not sure what that would cost to construct (hiding backstage, securing entrance), and then labor hours for the next 56 years or however long they sell the contracts for. Probably 20 million in additional labor over the next 50 years.

Perhaps they get it all in at around 50 million. Seems feasible, but constructing an overhead pathway will put a serious cramp on that traffic flow.

 

[sachilles]

Seems feasible, but constructing an overhead pathway will put a serious cramp on that traffic flow.

In what way? Just during construction or permanently.
I'm assuming you mean on Beuna Vista.

 

[dlavender]

In what way? Just during construction or permanently.
I'm assuming you mean on Beuna Vista.

Just initially. Not the end of the world, but definitely a consideration.

Anyone have a guess at the breakeven point on this?

ETA: I think that if they can get a pathway there for less than 100 million lifetime cost, they'll do it.

 

[skier_pete]

I wish

Well, since everyone talks about the monorail being $1 million per mile, since they only need a quarter mile of track, it would be only $250,000!
(Should I put this in red? )

 

[skier_pete]

Just initially. Not the end of the world, but definitely a consideration.

Anyone have a guess at the breakeven point on this?

ETA: I think that if they can get a pathway there for less than 100 million lifetime cost, they'll do it.

Well, I've said if you think it's the difference between charging say 13-14 points a night (a "low" studio rate) and charging say 18-19 points a night (a more "average" studio rate) - in other words let's call it a 25% premium on points, if you assume say 4 million points for the resort. 25% more points is 1 million points. At $180 a point - that's $180 million to be made from a direct access line.

(This doesn't count money to be made from upcharging the rest of CBR nor whether they can even charge more per point with direct access. There's also what I would call "protection of the DVC brand", which would have some value as well that would be hard to monetize.)

So,breakeven is $180 million, but typically most companies are only satisfied with a 50% profit margin, so based on that - $90 million or less the DVC alone would justify it. If they are thinking "bigger" (say another resort along the canal route) then they could spend even more.

 

[sachilles]

Well, since everyone talks about the monorail being $1 million per mile, since they only need a quarter mile of track, it would be only $250,000!
(Should I put this in red? )

Heck at that rate it would only be 6 million to loop Epcot, DHS, CBR, Disney springs, SSR and OKW. Start pouring concrete. It would be epic

 

[lockedoutlogic]

Well, since everyone talks about the monorail being $1 million per mile, since they only need a quarter mile of track, it would be only $250,000!
(Should I put this in red? )

Well the good news is...apparently the cost of heavy site work and infrastructure got ALOT cheaper since last week. It's really just a drop in the bucket compared to imagineering elsa AAs...

So all those costs for disney projects will drop...I called them and let them know it's cheap.

 

[TheMaxRebo]

I was only jesting in another thread. This is still tongue in cheek. The people mover in tomorrowland is approximately 4000 feet in transport length, not including the loading carousel.

If you were to loop from the cbr building site, and loop around the building pad between Germany and the African outpost, it is roughly the same distance.

I'm not saying they are connecting cbr and epcot. However, might it be a clever savings if the connection transportation is also an "attraction". The boats are popular but not quick, nor likely cheap. A ski lift is less than practical with the weather in FL. Gondolas don't have the capacity.

Might the easy(ier) button be a gateway IN CBR, with an attraction/transportation that loops into the rumored new country for the expansion pad. Some sort of omnimover should be reliable enough, carry enough people with enough speed to work.

.

Not saying this is realistic - but would be kinda cool if they did something along the lines of what Universal has with the Hogwarts Express but for connecting to the resort. That could jack up the points/night if there was a quality attraction that you could only ride if you stayed at that resort

 

[TheMaxRebo]

Well if a fence costs 15 billion...

A walkway is the cheapest option. But you will have recurring costs associated with it and not to mention the constant costs of running another entrance/exit to the park. The biggest hurdle IMO is not the walkway, but that entrance/exit. Not sure what that would cost to construct (hiding backstage, securing entrance), and then labor hours for the next 56 years or however long they sell the contracts for. Probably 20 million in additional labor over the next 50 years.

Perhaps they get it all in at around 50 million. Seems feasible, but constructing an overhead pathway will put a serious cramp on that traffic flow.

ah, so the key to this whole plan working out is to get Universal to pay for it!

 

[dlavender]

The only detail missing for me on deciding in my mind if this will be DVC or not, is still the question of amenities/perceived value issue.

Across the street you have YC/BC/BW with way more to offer than I'm picturing what they are doing here with a tower and amenities. And they have direct access via two methods.

Can they build a YC/BC/BW area in this space to really compete?

 

[lockedoutlogic]

Well, I've said if you think it's the difference between charging say 13-14 points a night (a "low" studio rate) and charging say 18-19 points a night (a more "average" studio rate) - in other words let's call it a 25% premium on points, if you assume say 4 million points for the resort. 25% more points is 1 million points. At $180 a point - that's $180 million to be made from a direct access line.

(This doesn't count money to be made from upcharging the rest of CBR nor whether they can even charge more per point with direct access. There's also what I would call "protection of the DVC brand", which would have some value as well that would be hard to monetize.)

So,breakeven is $180 million, but typically most companies are only satisfied with a 50% profit margin, so based on that - $90 million or less the DVC alone would justify it. If they are thinking "bigger" (say another resort along the canal route) then they could spend even more.

I'm wondering where you got the idea that the upfront cost of the construction is to finance the construction only?

As In "they're gonna sell $700 mil...so $150 mil In infrastructure behind Epcot is just a line item"

???