Monitoring resort points for selling out

[Girlstar30]

Is there somewhere we can monitor how "sold out" current resorts on sale are. I know there has been different estimates that have been reported, but is there somewhere that updates this number periodically? Is DVC legally obligated to sell a certain percentage of points at a resort before stopping because I'm reading they haven't unlocked all points for Riv yet, but im not really sure what this means. I know people are probably thinking just buy it already and shutup lol but I'm trying to save my pennies and do it responsibly and I wont able to purchase until early next year if I don't want to go the financing route which I dont and I'm scared it sells out and then I'm stuck in resale restriction hell. I know I would definitely kick myself for that!

 

[RuntheMouse]

https://dvcnews.com/dvc-program-men...irect-sales-steady-for-december-down-for-2024

These updates are posted monthly and give an estimate as to when active resorts will sell out.

 

[CarolynFH]

DVC News monitors and reports monthly on sales, including estimating how quickly a resort might sell out. The most recent report is here https://dvcnews.com/dvc-program-men...irect-sales-steady-for-december-down-for-2024 and the January one should come soon.

I don’t think DVD is legally obligated to sell a minimum percentage, only that the max they can sell is 98% of points.

ETA - @RuntheMouse, jinx!

 

[Girlstar30]

https://dvcnews.com/dvc-program-men...irect-sales-steady-for-december-down-for-2024

These updates are posted monthly and give an estimate as to when active resorts will sell out.

Thank you exactly what I was looking for

 

[Girlstar30]

DVC News monitors and reports monthly on sales, including estimating how quickly a resort might sell out. The most recent report is here https://dvcnews.com/dvc-program-men...irect-sales-steady-for-december-down-for-2024 and the January one should come soon.

I don’t think DVD is legally obligated to sell a minimum percentage, only that the max they can sell is 98% of points.

ETA - @RuntheMouse, jinx!

Oh wow so they can literally pull the plug at any time

 

[CarolynFH]

Oh wow so they can literally pull the plug at any time

Well, since Disney wants to sell as much of the resort as they can, they don’t stop selling as long as they have points available. They just stop promoting that resort to potential new buyers, stop offering incentives, etc. and move that resort to the “not in active sales” category. But if you review the DVC News monthly reports, you’ll see direct sales of points from many “sold out” resorts still occur each month. Many active participants on this forum have reported adding on direct at sold-out resorts.

 

[Girlstar30]

Well, since Disney wants to sell as much of the resort as they can, they don’t stop selling as long as they have points available. They just stop promoting that resort to potential new buyers, stop offering incentives, etc. and move that resort to the “not in active sales” category. But if you review the DVC News monthly reports, you’ll see direct sales of points from many “sold out” resorts still occur each month. Many active participants on this forum have reported adding on direct at sold-out resorts.

That's right I forgot they will still offer at top dollar without incentives

 

[RuntheMouse]

If it makes you feel any better, I am watching RIV as well and am not worried yet. We are planning on adding more direct and will add on at Lakeshore Lodge if they don’t bundle CFW in with it. If they do we’ll add more on at RIV. So I’m hoping for some information one way or another on Lakeshore Lodge so we can make that decision before RIV is sold out.

 

[MerlinandtheMouse]

If I were to take an educated, but completely unbacked guess, I think this most recent base price increase + mild incentives will slow down point sales enough that sell out date for RIV will be 2-3 years. But this assumes they don’t do some kind of significant fire sale. I know some have recently made a few good points as to why DVC might not ever do a blowout sale for RIV, but my only argument against this logic is if RIV isn’t sold out by the time LSL is about to go on sale, they might just want to finish RIV with a good sale so they don’t have so many active choices. Lots of unknowns but I still think it will be 2+ years before it sells out.

In about a year I’m going to ask my guide to please give me a warning when the resort is near sellout to do one last purchase. Not sure if they’re allowed to do that but it’s worth an ask. Other than that, we’ll have to keep monitoring it ourselves based on @wdrl reports.

 

[Girlstar30]

If it makes you feel any better, I am watching RIV as well and am not worried yet. We are planning on adding more direct and will add on at Lakeshore Lodge if they don’t bundle CFW in with it. If they do we’ll add more on at RIV. So I’m hoping for some information one way or another on Lakeshore Lodge so we can make that decision before RIV is sold out.

Yes this does make me feel better because I have no idea when they would decide to stop. Why wouldn't you want it if it was bundled, is it because of the high annual dues? I heard if it was bundled maybe it would lower them? I don't want to have more than one contract with resale restrictions, which I'm assuming LSL will have. But I guess if Riv did sell out I could always go to that one which I'm sure will have better incentives in the beginning than Riv now

If it makes you feel any better, I am watching RIV as well and am not worried yet. We are planning on adding more direct and will add on at Lakeshore Lodge if they don’t bundle CFW in with it. If they do we’ll add more on at RIV. So I’m hoping for some information one way or another on Lakeshore Lodge so we can make that decision before RIV is sold

 

[Girlstar30]

If I were to take an educated, but completely unbacked guess, I think this most recent base price increase + mild incentives will slow down point sales enough that sell out date for RIV will be 2-3 years. But this assumes they don’t do some kind of significant fire sale. I know some have recently made a few good points as to why DVC might not ever do a blowout sale for RIV, but my only argument against this logic is if RIV isn’t sold out by the time LSL is about to go on sale, they might just want to finish RIV with a good sale so they don’t have so many active choices. Lots of unknowns but I still think it will be 2+ years before it sells out.

In about a year I’m going to ask my guide to please give me a warning when the resort is near sellout to do one last purchase. Not sure if they’re allowed to do that but it’s worth an ask. Other than that, we’ll have to keep monitoring it ourselves based on @wdrl reports.

I was going to ask my guide too, but I was afraid he might say it's almost sold out and try to get me to buy now because of course he'll get a cut. But maybe I shouldn't think that because it has been very low pressure so far. I was just suspicious cuz he told me he owns at FW and how great it is for his family during the holidays and I was like hmmm didn't they have a low amount of buyers so far what are the chances, I am always weary of salespeople especially having worked at a timeshare resort before albeit it being a Marriott property and totally different where they promise the world and don't deliver. I was thinking the same thar LSL could bring on a fire sale. I have major FOMO issues so I'm glad the disboard crew was able to calm me back down

 

[RuntheMouse]

Yes this does make me feel better because I have no idea when they would decide to stop. Why wouldn't you want it if it was bundled, is it because of the high annual dues? I heard if it was bundled maybe it would lower them? I don't want to have more than one contract with resale restrictions, which I'm assuming LSL will have. But I guess if Riv did sell out I could always go to that one which I'm sure will have better incentives in the beginning than Riv now

This is a huge part of it for us. With the dues being so high from the start, it concerns me they won’t be able to get them in line with other properties. Having a self contained tower is a lot more cost effective than 300 individual cabins. I don’t have any interest in staying in the cabins so I’m not so inclined to subsidize them.

 

[sndral]

Yes this does make me feel better because I have no idea when they would decide to stop. Why wouldn't you want it if it was bundled, is it because of the high annual dues? I heard if it was bundled maybe it would lower them? I don't want to have more than one contract with resale restrictions, which I'm assuming LSL will have. But I guess if Riv did sell out I could always go to that one which I'm sure will have better incentives in the beginning than Riv now

If you want unrestricted direct points then my crystal ball says Poly will likely be your last chance for that.
Regarding ‘bundling’ LSL w/ the cabins at FW, DVC created a different type of ownership model for the FW cabins - rather than the 50 year deeded lease model they’ve always used DVC created a trust & many have concerns about that type of ownership based on experiences w/ trust type ownerships in other timeshares, see this thread https://www.disboards.com/threads/trust-points.3937569/.

 

[Anthony1971]

As mentioned above if your heat is set on RIV even if it sold out tomorrow you will 95% be able to put yourself on waitlist which will be magically filled when a person sells. Your Guide WILL put you on a list if this is the only resort you will buy.......
I am not sure I have ever seen a fire sale at any direct in 20+ years. What I have seen is the holding of a price when a new resort is priced higher and the better incentive for all/most resorts during harder times.
If your heart is not set on RIV I can tell you your biggest expense will be dues through the years as this will surpass your buy in at some year, was in the low teens now maybe 20? Watch the dues as they do go up every year. I know 1500 sound like a lot off for 150 points but in the end this will be less than your dues at some point soon. Our dues are up 124% since buying. Do NOT go by the contract price go by what fits you best and when.....

 

[Girlstar30]

This is a huge part of it for us. With the dues being so high from the start, it concerns me they won’t be able to get them in line with other properties. Having a self contained tower is a lot more cost effective than 300 individual cabins. I don’t have any interest in staying in the cabins so I’m not so inclined to subsidize them.

Didn't think about that, but i am the same, I don't have interest in the cabins and i like the towers, so lsl will be off my radar as well if that happens!

 

[Girlstar30]

If you want unrestricted direct points then my crystal ball says Poly will likely be your last chance for that.
Regarding ‘bundling’ LSL w/ the cabins at FW, DVC created a different type of ownership model for the FW cabins - rather than the 50 year deeded lease model they’ve always used DVC created a trust & many have concerns about that type of ownership based on experiences w/ trust type ownerships in other timeshares, see this thread https://www.disboards.com/threads/trust-points.3937569/.

Wow this is so interesting so fw is already in this trust, but the others aren't? So if you buy fw can you stay at all of the other resorts too? I'm assuming so.

So from now on when you buy, you won't have a deed recorded in your name for fw? Isn't this worse for us because technically you don't own it? Sorry for all the questions I have never heard of this and the guide did not tell me this when he was trying to sell us. Definetely something i would want to know before purchasing. Changes everything because even if Riv did sell out and i wasnt particularly interested in poly, i would still buy that instead of something in this trust because i dont like the sound of it. I don't like the sound of this because sounds like disney is the one getting all the protections. Like if a trust owns it then we don't really own anything and if an issue arises then we can't do anything towards disney because the trust owns it and not disney is what I'm getting from this, Maybe I'm wrong.

I am also confused about what we actually own when we buy and have a deed recorded. Obviously im getting points and can stay but When they say oh this building has been declared or these many studios have been declared. Are we actually buying individual rooms or what? I know we don't get to stay in the same room all the time so it's confusing to me, sorry for ignorance this just opened pandoras box for my brain

 

[Girlstar30]

As mentioned above if your heat is set on RIV even if it sold out tomorrow you will 95% be able to put yourself on waitlist which will be magically filled when a person sells. Your Guide WILL put you on a list if this is the only resort you will buy.......
I am not sure I have ever seen a fire sale at any direct in 20+ years. What I have seen is the holding of a price when a new resort is priced higher and the better incentive for all/most resorts during harder times.
If your heart is not set on RIV I can tell you your biggest expense will be dues through the years as this will surpass your buy in at some year, was in the low teens now maybe 20? Watch the dues as they do go up every year. I know 1500 sound like a lot off for 150 points but in the end this will be less than your dues at some point soon. Our dues are up 124% since buying. Do NOT go by the contract price go by what fits you best and when.....

Thank you I know I was tripping over $1500 when I'm dealing with something that costs wayyy more long term, I just love me a bargain so when the prices went up I had to cry about it on here

 

[CarolynFH]

especially having worked at a timeshare resort before albeit it being a Marriott property

When did you work for Marriott? Before or after they transformed their timeshare model to a trust? One of Marriott's previous executives now works for DVC, and suspicion is that the DVC timeshare trust products will work very similarly to how the Marriott timeshare trust works, but no one knows for sure.

I am also confused about what we actually own when we buy and have a deed recorded.

The DVC resorts in Florida other than CFW are legally constituted as condominium associations under Florida law. That means we own a percentage of the physical building, and it's only for convenience that our ownership is represented by points. For instance, we own two contracts at BWV, and each represents 150 points out of the however many million points there in the BWV condominium association. Each condo association building is divided into Residential Units, which can be different sizes. One of our contracts states that we own 0.2872% of an RU made up of 7 specific dedicated studios and 1 specific dedicated 1BR that's on the 3rd floor of BWV. The other contract states we own 0.8651% of a different RU that's composed of 1 specific dedicated studio and 1 specific dedicated 1BR, also on the 3rd floor of BWV. Somewhere in the files of the State of Florida are floor plans that show exactly which villas those are, but I don't know how to find them! So if you buy RIV, you'll be buying a percentage of the building, which is why you'll be responsible for paying dues for upkeep and operations.

 

[CarolynFH]

When they say oh this building has been declared or these many studios have been declared.

Referring back to the floor plans filed with the state, each RU is designated by a code number. Before the resort starts selling, DVD files legal documents that declare which specific RUs in that building are part of the condominium association, and that is what determines how many of a given villa type can be booked using DVC points. For instance, if DVD declared only the two RUs that my points come from into the BWV condo association, only a total of 8 studios and 2 1BR villas would be available for points bookings -- until DVD declared more RUs into the condo association.

 

[sndral]

Wow this is so interesting so fw is already in this trust, but the others aren't? So if you buy fw can you stay at all of the other resorts too? I'm assuming so.

So from now on when you buy, you won't have a deed recorded in your name for fw? Isn't this worse for us because technically you don't own it? Sorry for all the questions I have never heard of this and the guide did not tell me this when he was trying to sell us. Definetely something i would want to know before purchasing. Changes everything because even if Riv did sell out and i wasnt particularly interested in poly, i would still buy that instead of something in this trust because i dont like the sound of it. I don't like the sound of this because sounds like disney is the one getting all the protections. Like if a trust owns it then we don't really own anything and if an issue arises then we can't do anything towards disney because the trust owns it and not disney is what I'm getting from this, Maybe I'm wrong.

I am also confused about what we actually own when we buy and have a deed recorded. Obviously im getting points and can stay but When they say oh this building has been declared or these many studios have been declared. Are we actually buying individual rooms or what? I know we don't get to stay in the same room all the time so it's confusing to me, sorry for ignorance this just opened pandoras box for my brain

The trust model is too new to know how it will work long term - read the linked thread & you’ll see that we all have questions.
If you want to see what a deed for DVC looks like go here https://or.occompt.com/recorder/web/ click accept & then chose a date range & type in Disney as the party. Click on image for any of the entries & you’ll see the deed. The cabins have recorded deeds, however they are worded differently than non trust DVC deeds & reference different documents because they are a trust ownership type of timeshare.