Side question for
@DopeyBadger What do you think the downfalls or cons of changing the rundisney POT cutoff to something slower. I know many rundisney people ONLY run disney. And so character stops, etc, makes the general overall time of disney races slower in general. Think it is bc disney wants to be fairer to first time runners who may be faster than a 3:15 etc?
Tough one. In my opinion, I'd agree with you. It's because runDisney markets themselves to first timers and is much more open to all pace groups than some other large races can be. From the data, it would appear to attract a slower crowd on average than the general population of runners. So let's say they shifted the marathon requirements for example. Move it from 5:30 to 6:00 for required POT. One may guess that the issue may lie in that a significant number of runners in the 5:30+ range don't have any 10 miler or HM to submit. So if the POT requirement moves, then you continue to move them backwards. You could make the argument that they would then likely be practically in the same place as they would still be in the last three corrals (or last two?) with nearly 50-60% of the field there if a significant number did not have a submittable time. It would really depend on how they handled that back end, but with the current system the presumption would be they'd do mini-waves and call it a day. But in this case it would be a net positive for those in the 5:30 to 6:00 who have POT to show they can run that pace and thus would remain in the same position, but with less other runners starting around them.
But let's see if that's truly the case with an educated guess:
In 2018, the POT cutoff was 5:30. A total of 54.6% of the field did not have a POT and had an estimated finish slower than 5:30. Additionally, 16.6% of the field had an "estimated finish" of slower than 6:00 (based on 6:01-7:00 of 2018 corral system for Corral H). Thus, 38% of the field fell between 5:30-6:00 estimated finish.
In 2017, the POT cutoff was 5:30. A total of 53.3% of the field did not have a POT and had an estimated finish slower than 5:30. Additionally, 28% of the field had an "estimated finish" of slower than 6:00 (based on 6:01+ Corral M). Thus, 25% of the field fell between 5:30-6:00 estimated finish.
In 2015, the POT cutoff was 5:30? (they just asked for an estimated marathon finish time (no drop down) and a race that supported it). A total of 37.7% of the field did not have a POT and had an estimated finish slower than 5:30. Additionally, 30.2% of the field had an "estimated finish" of slower than 6:00 (based on 6:01+ Corral M). Thus, about 7.5% of the field fell between 5:30-6:00 estimated finish.
In 2014, the POT cutoff was 5:30? (they just asked for an estimated marathon finish time and a race that supported it). The 5:30 value for a specific corral is an unknown because runDisney didn't release the data on the corral sheet like they do now (educated guess around 45%). But additionally, 37.6% of the field had an "estimated finish" of slower than 6:00 (based on 6:01+ Corral M). This was the first year of "more corrals, set number of people per corral". Thus, about 7.4% of the field fell between 5:30-6:00 estimated finish.
If I were to take the data as it's shown here, then my first educated guess would be that over the course of 5 years the population and distribution of runners has fluctuated with about 38-55% of the field not having a POT (or estimate) less than 5:30 marathon equivalent. The % of runners in the 6:00+ range is fairly consistent from 2014-2018 (37.6, 30.2, 28, 16.6%). However, there seems to be a sudden jump in 5:30-6:00 runners right around the POT cutoff (7.4, 7.5, 25, 38). Granted runDisney probably played a bit more with the wiggle room since the goal was to get a set number of runners per corral. But it would suggest that we've seen a double to tripling in runners in the 5:30-6:00 range with much less movement in the 6:00+ range.
One could contest that the onus of having a POT shouldn't be on runDisney. And thus if a runner wants to run a marathon and be corralled less than 6:00, then they should run a 10 miler or HM. Same could be said for the 5:30 cutoff as well.
So if they moved the cutoff from 5:30 to 6:00, it would be unlikely to hurt many runners from a standpoint of "position in the field". They may receive a lower letter in the alphabet and they'd probably have about 7.5% of the runners legitimately move past them into the 5:30-6:00 range. It would be beneficial to those with POT in the 5:30-6:00 ranges as it would reduce the potential of runners in front of them by 7.5-17.5% of the field. The runners it could hurt would be the new runners with no 10 miler or HM POT. For that, I would add in the possibility of POT as low as a 10k to accommodate the possible new runners. But conversely, I might consider including a higher race equivalency conversion to the marathon (it appears it is 1.08 right now, so maybe a 1.10 or 1.15 (which is average)). I'd do the same for the HM and open it up to a 5k POT but maybe have a larger race equivalency conversion on it. But most importantly, I'd then add the race equivalency calculator to the website allowing runners to make a more educated choice on POT submission. I'd include the rational behind it and why it may differ from other industry standard calculators. But if it were me, I'd just be transparent as possible and include all the possible information at every step.
So there are potential drawbacks, but I do think those could be mediated with a few other steps.
**ETA - I noticed an error. I originally attributed the 2018 corral G to 6:00+. But based on the 2018 corrals G was 5:30-6:00 with F being =5:30. This means 38% of the runners stated their finish time was between 5:30-6:00, which is a huge increase from 7.5, 7.5, 25%. A total of 15% of the field stated their estimated finish was exactly 5:30 (the fastest non-POT required time). This general trend shows what I was discussing earlier in that most non-POT runners are now noticing that choosing the fastest possible estimated finish yields a faster corral (makes sense though because that's the only information available to corral you on). I would then estimate that Corral F for the 2019 Disney Marathon (5:30-6:00 drop down) may contain as much as 38-45% of the entire field unless they change their system.