Let's speculate about Polynesian some more!

[maui22]

Riviera timeshare license was granted on 7/17/18. That was almost 17 months before opening.
Other than RIV (264 days) and PVB (79 days), sales to existing members have been in the 109-153 days before opening. NOTE: excluding the 2008 mistakes (opening Kidani, THV, BLT, and VGC during the same year) because Iger should have learned his lesson.

If tower opens November-December, we may be looking at another 6-7 months before sales start to existing members.

 

[SL6827]

So if it's the same association, resale prices will sky rocket? And not the same, they will stay unchanged?

 

[BrianLo]

So if it's the same association, resale prices will sky rocket? And not the same, they will stay unchanged?

Yes, though I think resale prices will temporarily skyrocket. Long term Poly would be turning into a very large resort (with 8? million points) and active sales usually drive down resale prices somewhat.

 

[Sandisw]

So if it's the same association, resale prices will sky rocket? And not the same, they will stay unchanged?

I actually wouldn’t say skyrocket…but I think they will get back into the $140s…and stay there they are if it’s a new one.

It’s going to be influenced by the pricing…if they come out with good incentives, even if the same, it will have a far bigger impact on resale…that’s what happened via VGF…and, since some bought it high after it was announced thinking DVD would never offer it as low as they did…I think you might have more people hold off rushing to get PVB resale.

I’m still thinking it’s new, but I really am feeling more confident the decision will be revealed in a month at the annual meeting.

 

[maui22]

Yes, though I think resale prices will temporarily skyrocket. Long term Poly would be turning into a very large resort (with 8? million points) and active sales usually drive down resale prices somewhat.

Given the number of points that will be available for all of Polynesian resort (regardless of same or different) and the lack of additions to the Polynesian resort, will VGF be the resort with the bigger increase in resale value?

Much smaller resort, flagship resort, closer walk to MK, etc

 

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

Given the number of points that will be available for all of Polynesian resort (regardless of same or different) and the lack of additions to the Polynesian resort, will VGF be the resort with the bigger increase in resale value?

Much smaller resort, flagship resort, closer walk to MK, etc

As the owner of many VGF points, it would be nice but I am skeptical. I would be surprised if, long run, VGF stays much above Poly…yes, the theming and room mix is slightly different, but I would be kind of surprised if people are buying VGF resale at $175 if they can get Poly at $125. Yes, there are a few who absolutely want to be at VGF, but probably many more who will buy opportunistically wherever the better value is.

I think BCV/BWV is actually probably a good analogy. I haven’t been around here that long, but I would be surprised if they have had a more than $25-$30 gap per point for long (and BCV is much much smaller with stormalong bay).

 

[maui22]

As the owner of many VGF points, it would be nice but I am skeptical. I would be surprised if, long run, VGF stays much above Poly…yes, the theming and room mix is slightly different, but I would be kind of surprised if people are buying VGF resale at $175 if they can get Poly at $125. Yes, there are a few who absolutely want to be at VGF, but probably many more who will buy opportunistically wherever the better value is.

I think BCV/BWV is actually probably a good analogy. I haven’t been around here that long, but I would be surprised if they have had a more than $25-$30 gap per point for long (and BCV is much much smaller with stormalong bay).

Using @pkrieger2287 data
https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blo...-2023/?utm_source=partner&utm_campaign=dvcfan

I didn’t realize BWV has become so close in resale prices to BCV. It used to be a larger difference. BCV averaging $127 and BWV $121.

PVB averaged $152 and VGF averaged $160 in October. I wouldn’t be surprised to see VGF reach the $175 mark you mention now that it is sold out again.

8 DVC million points plus the hotel side would probably be equivalent to another 6-8 million points. Tower likely only adds a QS, smaller pool, and bar added to the resort.

I wonder how close the Polynesian + PVB + tower maximum occupancy will compare to SSR maximum occupancy?

Update: here is what I found for room counts.
SSR has 1260 total rooms.
Seeing different reports for total Polynesian hotel has 479-847 rooms and PVB 380 rooms. With the addition of the tower, Polynesian will be nearing SSR size. From what I recall SSR has a larger main and they added several pools to other areas.

Really thinking Disney and many people don’t understand how busy Polynesian will feel with the tower addition. That is why I think we may see a higher percentage of tower purchasers selling within a few years.

 

[TheDailyMoo]

Assuming it is part of the old association getting rooms at the tower at 7 months will be near impossible no? With all the SAP points out there and all the PVB points getting first dibs it seems like it's going to need 11 month priority to get anything decent.

Really thinking Disney and many people don’t understand how busy Polynesian will feel with the tower addition.

Oversaturation seems to be the elephant in the room. Disney just keeps adding more space for more people to stay yet the parks and restaurants stay the same. Will it hit a tipping point?

 

[Sandisw]

Assuming it is part of the old association getting rooms at the tower at 7 months will be near impossible no? With all the SAP points out there and all the PVB points getting first dibs it seems like it's going to need 11 month priority to get anything decent.

Oversaturation seems to be the elephant in the room. Disney just keeps adding more space for more people to stay yet the parks and restaurants stay the same. Will it hit a tipping point?

It depends on the point chart which could temper the demand.

However, it’s one of the reasons we won’t even consider buying there if it’s rolled in. Way too much money to potentially be shut out of the rooms, especially studios since we don’t like the current longhouses.

 

[TheDailyMoo]

It depends on the point chart which could temper the demand.

However, it’s one of the reasons we won’t even consider buying there if it’s rolled in. Way too much money to potentially be shut out of the rooms, especially studios since we don’t like the current longhouses.

If I knew there would never be "summer VGF" style incentives I would want it to be same association so I would have a shot (albeit a low percentage) of getting rooms at 7 months. If I knew Disney would price it to move, I would absolutely want it separate association as I would more than likely purchase there. Of course even Disney doesn't know the answers to that so I'll just see where the chips fall and proceed accordingly.

 

[MISCdisney21]

Assuming it is part of the old association getting rooms at the tower at 7 months will be near impossible no? With all the SAP points out there and all the PVB points getting first dibs it seems like it's going to need 11 month priority to get anything decent.

Oversaturation seems to be the elephant in the room. Disney just keeps adding more space for more people to stay yet the parks and restaurants stay the same. Will it hit a tipping point?

I think you’re going to see major incentives for staying on property. That has to be a major push going forward, seems it has started some but think it increases drastically.
Combinations of rebooking discounts, ticket specials, dining packages, etc.

 

[JackosinDIS]

Anyone ever noticed this wording on the DVC booking website… is it a clue?

 

[kneely58]

Anyone ever noticed this wording on the DVC booking website… is it a clue?

View attachment 809837

Yep, that's the language they've been using for a while to keep it ambiguous...

 

[Sandisw]

Anyone ever noticed this wording on the DVC booking website… is it a clue?

View attachment 809837

That’s how it has always been and as you notice they kept it technical that they are expanding the resort…but no reference to it being an expansion to PVB…which leaves it up in the air

 

[SL6827]

The thoughts of the Poly nearing the size of SSR is unreal.

 

[RichVIII]

The thoughts of the Poly nearing the size of SSR is unreal.

Yeah. Poly fan but not owner. Feature pool is already packed. QS is busy all the time and Trader Sams needs a virtual line. While I hope there is some relief with the new tower. That’s a lot of people for an already packed Ceremonial house and monorail.

 

[maui22]

The thoughts of the Poly nearing the size of SSR is unreal.

Poly is also visited by thousands of guests not staying there everyday. The tower addition without a second major feature pool that includes a pool slide seems like a big mistake. Pool slide can already have a 30+ minute wait. Haven’t timed it, but it may get close to an hour at times.

At SSR, they realized their mistake and did some nice pool changes. Does Polynesian have the space?

 

[AwfulWaffle]

But it's part of an existing resort not a new property.

No it just took over a stage to a mediocre luau and not a physical building. But I hope as an owner of poly 1 that it is but it won’t be which is fine too because I’ll still enjoy the 5 person studios for the next three years. But if they make the mistake of making it the same association that would be awesome because then I’ll never need direct points

 

[SL6827]

Poly is also visited by thousands of guests not staying there everyday. The tower addition without a second major feature pool that includes a pool slide seems like a big mistake. Pool slide can already have a 30+ minute wait. Haven’t timed it, but it may get close to an hour at times.

At SSR, they realized their mistake and did some nice pool changes. Does Polynesian have the space?

Yes. Like us. We go and get some Tonga Toast every trip. So, they are not adding any type of food service to the place?

 

[SPLzero]

Yes. Like us. We go and get some Tonga Toast every trip. So, they are not adding any type of food service to the place?

there is a quick service and bar on the floor plan for the first floor.