It Looks Like the Death Numbers are Being Inflated

[Carol_]

Our son knows of two people whose death certificates said cause of death was Covid19, but one died in his home from a heart attack and the other was drunk and got into an auto accident and died from his injuries.

I'm an actual expert.
I think that something got lost in translation and someone in the grapevine between the doctor signing the death certificate, the person telling your son, your son, and then you - someone misunderstood something.
The numbers are inflated but not in the way you describe.
People who die of chronic illnesses (or any cause of death) who happen to also test positive for Covid are getting Covid added to their causes of death and that inflates the numbers. Covid in these cases is rarely listed as the main cause of death. If it is, that's an error and as noted above, it should be corrected with the state.
As someone who works regularly reading death certificates I can attest to the fact that people are NOT being told to change things dramatically the way you think. But listing Covid as contributing may be necessary.

 

[jlwhitney]

I don’t know about inflated or if it makes much of a difference if any, but I have read that if a person has Covid-19 it’s added to those numbers even if it wasn’t the primary cause.

And CDC stated that they drs. can put it down even if just probable but not tested.

 

[ZJ5/9D47]

I don’t know what counties these deaths occurred in.

Do you know where your son is getting this information? Firsthand...fifth-hand? Just something seen on social media by an anonymous source?

I have difficulty believing that there is a huge spike in deaths caused by this virus in a county (what would happen if every death was attributed to the virus) and no local news has picked up on it yet. Here people know exactly how many have died and when the number goes up. Most counties don’t even have a death from the virus every day but do have multiple other deaths.

 

[theSurlyMermaid]

um, no, not a Disney bus driver. I have no idea why you would even think that. Idiotic thread? Wow. Do you honestly think it’s okay to falsify death certificates?

Yes it is an idiotic thread. So “they” are falsifying death numbers because your son “knows two people@. Wow, that’s compelling evidence. And who exactly is “they”? And since when does a random anecdote mean the statement asserted must be true?

 

[fatmanatee]

Do you have proof of this? Everyone is asking the OP for proof of her statement, so seems to me an opposite statement should require proof too.

The cause of death is determined by the medical examiner or the coroner. I fail to see why this person would lie either way.

There’s been a sharp increase in deaths that hasn’t been accounted for yet, and given the circumstances (people staying inside, not driving, etc), you’d expect fewer deaths from other events, not more. So more than likely a lot of those deaths are due to coronavirus. I think it’s just going to take a lot of time to settle this.

A key is that early on, doctors didn’t have enough tests but if someone came in looking like they had coronavirus, you treated them as though they had coronavirus, although they hadn’t been formally added to the record yet (NYC just added a lot of these to their count, to the annoyance of conspiracy minded folk). Others might not have been tested bc they weren’t able to make it out to get a test, and died at home.

Below is a chart from Italy illustrating the increase in “other” deaths, there’s also one for NY showing the same thing but it’s earlier in the process, they only have data that runs until late March.

 

[Fireline]

I tend to be skeptical once I read that the source of information is twice detached from the story teller.

 

[SirDuff]

I'm an actual expert.
I think that something got lost in translation and someone in the grapevine between the doctor signing the death certificate, the person telling your son, your son, and then you - someone misunderstood something.
The numbers are inflated but not in the way you describe.
People who die of chronic illnesses (or any cause of death) who happen to also test positive for Covid are getting Covid added to their causes of death and that inflates the numbers. Covid in these cases is rarely listed as the main cause of death. If it is, that's an error and as noted above, it should be corrected with the state.
As someone who works regularly reading death certificates I can attest to the fact that people are NOT being told to change things dramatically the way you think. But listing Covid as contributing may be necessary.

I’m not a coder but I work with CRVS data (and ICD-10/11). Interestingly, I have a call next week about certifying and coding COVID-19 deaths, using verbal autopsy to identity COVID-19 related deaths (this is not a US based call and many non-high income countries rely heavily on verbal autopsy), and rapid mortality surveillance. It is definitely an interesting and complicated topic.

 

[fatmanatee]

My only question is how someone can be out drunk driving right now. I guess it’s possible but it has to be happening a lot less at the moment.

 

[ronandannette]

I'm an actual expert.
I think that something got lost in translation and someone in the grapevine between the doctor signing the death certificate, the person telling your son, your son, and then you - someone misunderstood something.
The numbers are inflated but not in the way you describe.
People who die of chronic illnesses (or any cause of death) who happen to also test positive for Covid are getting Covid added to their causes of death and that inflates the numbers. Covid in these cases is rarely listed as the main cause of death. If it is, that's an error and as noted above, it should be corrected with the state.
As someone who works regularly reading death certificates I can attest to the fact that people are NOT being told to change things dramatically the way you think. But listing Covid as contributing may be necessary.

Thanks for trying. Countering inaccurate information with that which is objectively factual must feel like swimming up-hill right now, especially in forums like this.

 

[SaintsManiac]

My only question is how someone can be out drunk driving right now. I guess it’s possible but it has to be happening a lot less at the moment.

Deadly crashes are actually up in my state. Couldn’t believe it when I saw it on the news yesterday. Then I went out and saw everyone driving as crazy as always.

 

[Hikergirl]

My only question is how someone can be out drunk driving right now. I guess it’s possible but it has to be happening a lot less at the moment.

People are still out on the roads, and here our liquor stores are deemed essential and are still open. So yes it is possible people are still out drunk driving.

I noticed that several different sites that keep track of our counties death rate varied in the numbers. One was 100% higher than the other. Not sure where the one got their info, even the actual health dept number was different from the 2 I saw.
At this point I have no reason to doubt you, but I won't go as far as believing "they" are inflating the death rate. Like the pp posted something probably got lost in translation.

 

[Farro]

I’m not a coder but I work with CRVS data (and ICD-10/11). Interestingly, I have a call next week about certifying and coding COVID-19 deaths, using verbal autopsy to identity COVID-19 related deaths (this is not a US based call and many non-high income countries rely heavily on verbal autopsy), and rapid mortality surveillance. It is definitely an interesting and complicated topic.

My understanding is that the ICD 10 code for Covid can be assigned from either provider documenting Covid positive in chart or directly from the positive lab test.

If that's the case, it would be hard to believe false information would be going out.

 

[okeydokey]

NYC generally averages 20-25 deaths at home in a typical day. During this pandemic they are seeing 200-250 deaths at home a day. If anything, death rates are being under reported. I don't believe for a minute medical examiners are being told to list coronavirus as a cause of death in a drunk driving accident.

 

[Searc]

I'd love to see relevant, reliable sources to this claim.

There are none. Covid deaths are far underreported.

 

[a1tinkfans]

I don’t know about inflated or if it makes much of a difference if any, but I have read that if a person has Covid-19 it’s added to those numbers even if it wasn’t the primary cause.

This seems to make sense. I’ve heard this too. Not agreeing with it, but get it.
Sounds like China whose numbers are Not Accurate and seem to change strangely!

 

[sam_gordon]

There are none. Covid deaths are far underreported.

I'd love to see relevant, reliable sources to this claim.

 

[Darklord77]

Procedures vary from jurisdiction to jurisdiction. However, it is normal practice for a medical examiner to release a deceased persons body to a funeral home without ever seeing the body in person. If it's a natural death with no suspicious circumstances the M.E. will often not go to the scene. This is especially true in large urban areas. I can definitely see how the death rates might be getting manipulated. Especially when there are financial incentives to report Covid related hospitalizations and deaths. Remember, two months ago a Senator from Arkansas was ridiculed for suggesting this virus was the result of a Chinese lab mistake. That "conspiracy theory" is now more likely to be the cause of this mess.

 

[OneOftheB's]

My opinion is that some deaths are reported as being Covid deaths, because the person was in fact tested and positive for Covid, but there are extenuating circumstances. My dad is in an assisted living. They had two Covid deaths this week. One individual was in very poor health- COPD, cancer, diabetes; really medically a mess and kind of a "ticking time bomb" of medical issues. He died within 48 hours of diagnosis, in the hospital, while undergoing treatment for breathing issues. The other individual was a 94 year old widower in great health. He was healthier than most 60 year olds, but had recently lost his wife (unrelated to Covid) and depressed. He refused all medical treatment and passed away a few days after a positive Covid test. Again, he had been experiencing breathing problems. Who knows if he could have survived if he had allowed medical intervention. But, I wonder how many of the deaths, especially in the elderly, could have been avoided if their living wills allowed medical intervention. My dad's living will is very clear that there is to be no ventilator or other life support (even feeding tube/iv) should he be unable to feed/drink/breathe/etc on his own.

So, yes, people are dying of Covid, maybe the numbers are somewhat skewed due to incomplete information.

 

[Cannot_Wait_4Disney]

Our son knows of two people whose death certificates said cause of death was Covid19, but one died in his home from a heart attack and the other was drunk and got into an auto accident and died from his injuries.

Count revised from 36,958 to 36,956. End of thread.

 

[Cramden]

And as far as Florida goes they aren't including deaths of second home owners or snowbirds in their statistics so there's a decent chance the numbers you see for Florida are being under reported. .