DVCNews September 2024 sales information

[ehh]

10/15-10/29 (includes some preliminary data). Additionally, @wdrl data for DVCNews may find additional deeds because I only looked at deeds the county correctly entered at least mostly Polynesian for the details.

517 deeds, 67,651 points. Average is 130.85.
A portion of the buyers split their purchase so the average per member is higher.

Barring a deluge of contracts being recorded the next 2 days, looks like VDH will remain on top for first ~2 weeks of recorded deeds.

Coincidentially (or not?) it looks like the last 3 big sellers, VGF2, VDH, and PVB2, all had their contracts start to appear on the 15th of the month in their respective comptroller sites, each during 31 day months.

PVB2: 67.7k with 2 days remaining
VDH: 147k from May 15-31st, 2023 (source: me)
VGF2: 116k from March 15-31st, 2022 (source: https://dvcnews.com/dvc-program-men...-sales-resume-direct-sales-jump-in-march-2022)

 

[Sandisw]

Barring a deluge of contracts being recorded the next 2 days, looks like VDH will remain on top for first ~2 weeks of recorded deeds.

Coincidentially (or not?) it looks like the last 3 big sellers, VGF2, VDH, and PVB2, all had their contracts start to appear on the 15th of the month in their respective comptroller sites, each during 31 day months.

PVB2: 67.7k with 2 days remaining
VDH: 147k from May 15-31st, 2023 (source: me)
VGF2: 116k from March 15-31st, 2022 (source: https://dvcnews.com/dvc-program-men...-sales-resume-direct-sales-jump-in-march-2022)

Do you think that maybe we have more owners who know about spreading out payments and why we may not be seeing that many points showing up?

 

[ehh]

Do you think that maybe we have more owners who know about spreading out payments and why we may not be seeing that many points showing up?

I'm assuming there's a general trend upward in delayed closings as knowledge spreads online, but I have no barometer for where we are today on that trendline. It might be 10% of sales, it might be 50%, I just don't know.

On top of that, I'm not sure if very early buyers act like sustaining buyers in this sense (maybe they saved up and just want to pay and get it over with, that type of thing). Of all the archetypes of buyers, I would assume buyers at the end of the incentive cycle would have the highest delayed closing rate.

Zooming back out to compare the 3 resorts, I would be very suprised if in less than 18 months (from VDH's initial sales) the share of delayed closings increased so much to meaningfully change the comparative balance of sales reported in the first ~2 weeks for these 3 resorts.

As for understanding how many buyers do use a delayed closing, it is possible, though very manual, to determine the delayed closing ratio for WDW contracts. Would need someone to monitor Palm Tree Dates for months.

VDH contracts (including contract numbers, Palm Tree Date, etc.) aren't viewable online at all and hard copies must be purchased at $1/page to view, so it's not feasible to look at the delayed closings for VDH.

 

[BrianLo]

Do you think that maybe we have more owners who know about spreading out payments and why we may not be seeing that many points showing up?

I think it just has far more to do with existing member enthusiasm to add on direct at this specific resort, while competing against its resale pool. Non-owner Members had been shut out of VGC/VGF. Poly's shut out was a brief 6 month speculative resale run, that already was significantly losing steam. Plus VGF2 was 207 at the time.

Short term, I don't think Poly does better with new members either. Longer term though, it will definitely do better than VDH and probably the nadir of VGF when it was poorly priced against RIV.

Just like VGF-RIV, we're again going to see new members really care about costs.

 

[MerlinandtheMouse]

I was listening to the new DVC show podcast and I know @pkrieger2287 and crew called the points chart reasonable/incentives generous and thought the sales were gangbusters... but I think that's a little against what we are starting to see.

I also made note of this. Seemed a bit bizarre to me considering the reality we’ve all been discussing here. It’s also funny they said that when they’ve commented many times how unreasonable the point chart at Riviera is, but the tower is equal, if not worse, for most seasons. Though I guess the whole show is basically a large ad for DVCRM so it makes sense to hype up the resort that’s an easier sell on the resale market.

 

[CastAStone]

might be 10% of sales, it might be 50%

I bet it’s way less than 10%.

 

[BrianLo]

I bet it’s way less than 10%.

I think so too. We’re threading a needle of people who are savvy enough to slow roll the purchase, but impulsive enough to go direct when there is a viable resale alternative. Meaning they likely are trying to use the points instantly.

 

[BrianLo]

DVC Fan Facebook group members are reporting their guides are saying new member volume is already slower than expected. Though who knows, because in general I think new members rarely have a long lead time before a purchase decision. Plus, it’s like a day of data.

Unsurprisingly, pricing is the cited reason.

 

[maui22]

Barring a deluge of contracts being recorded the next 2 days, looks like VDH will remain on top for first ~2 weeks of recorded deeds.

Coincidentially (or not?) it looks like the last 3 big sellers, VGF2, VDH, and PVB2, all had their contracts start to appear on the 15th of the month in their respective comptroller sites, each during 31 day months.

PVB2: 67.7k with 2 days remaining
VDH: 147k from May 15-31st, 2023 (source: me)
VGF2: 116k from March 15-31st, 2022 (source: https://dvcnews.com/dvc-program-men...-sales-resume-direct-sales-jump-in-march-2022)

Hopefully this is a sign that more incentives are coming.

Unfortunately, I'm not counting on them. @wdrl numbers show RIV has 25 months at current pace. When combined with his annual points sold information, they should have majority of PVB2 sold by the time River Country is ready for sales. (CFW is just not a major product for sales so far, so RIV + PVB will remain the WDW sales drivers).


An extra $5-$10/point incentive on RIV or PVB2 will move more inventory. I wouldn't list any new product with it's best price. Make the most per point for the first few months. December have a sale on RIV or PVB2 to move more of it's inventory. Then, in spring, I would give the other resort incentives to take advantage of the seasonal effect. Ask a realtor if October-December is a good time to list a house in most markets. Then ask them if spring is better.

 

[ehh]

Hopefully this is a sign that more incentives are coming.

Unfortunately, I'm not counting on them.

I'm also not counting on better post-incentive net pricing. I do think we will see better incentives, but only when the base price increases, ultimately leading to a higher net price.

I think we'll see much of what we saw with RIV vs. VGF2: lowest price sells best. While I think VGF and PVB are likely 'more desirable' than RIV, I think that is baked into the points charts and comparative sales will largely go the way of pricing.