DVCNews September 2024 sales information

[ehh]

10/15-10/29 (includes some preliminary data). Additionally, @wdrl data for DVCNews may find additional deeds because I only looked at deeds the county correctly entered at least mostly Polynesian for the details.

517 deeds, 67,651 points. Average is 130.85.
A portion of the buyers split their purchase so the average per member is higher.

Barring a deluge of contracts being recorded the next 2 days, looks like VDH will remain on top for first ~2 weeks of recorded deeds.

Coincidentially (or not?) it looks like the last 3 big sellers, VGF2, VDH, and PVB2, all had their contracts start to appear on the 15th of the month in their respective comptroller sites, each during 31 day months.

PVB2: 67.7k with 2 days remaining
VDH: 147k from May 15-31st, 2023 (source: me)
VGF2: 116k from March 15-31st, 2022 (source: https://dvcnews.com/dvc-program-men...-sales-resume-direct-sales-jump-in-march-2022)

 

[Sandisw]

Barring a deluge of contracts being recorded the next 2 days, looks like VDH will remain on top for first ~2 weeks of recorded deeds.

Coincidentially (or not?) it looks like the last 3 big sellers, VGF2, VDH, and PVB2, all had their contracts start to appear on the 15th of the month in their respective comptroller sites, each during 31 day months.

PVB2: 67.7k with 2 days remaining
VDH: 147k from May 15-31st, 2023 (source: me)
VGF2: 116k from March 15-31st, 2022 (source: https://dvcnews.com/dvc-program-men...-sales-resume-direct-sales-jump-in-march-2022)

Do you think that maybe we have more owners who know about spreading out payments and why we may not be seeing that many points showing up?

 

[ehh]

Do you think that maybe we have more owners who know about spreading out payments and why we may not be seeing that many points showing up?

I'm assuming there's a general trend upward in delayed closings as knowledge spreads online, but I have no barometer for where we are today on that trendline. It might be 10% of sales, it might be 50%, I just don't know.

On top of that, I'm not sure if very early buyers act like sustaining buyers in this sense (maybe they saved up and just want to pay and get it over with, that type of thing). Of all the archetypes of buyers, I would assume buyers at the end of the incentive cycle would have the highest delayed closing rate.

Zooming back out to compare the 3 resorts, I would be very suprised if in less than 18 months (from VDH's initial sales) the share of delayed closings increased so much to meaningfully change the comparative balance of sales reported in the first ~2 weeks for these 3 resorts.

As for understanding how many buyers do use a delayed closing, it is possible, though very manual, to determine the delayed closing ratio for WDW contracts. Would need someone to monitor Palm Tree Dates for months.

VDH contracts (including contract numbers, Palm Tree Date, etc.) aren't viewable online at all and hard copies must be purchased at $1/page to view, so it's not feasible to look at the delayed closings for VDH.

 

[BrianLo]

Do you think that maybe we have more owners who know about spreading out payments and why we may not be seeing that many points showing up?

I think it just has far more to do with existing member enthusiasm to add on direct at this specific resort, while competing against its resale pool. Non-owner Members had been shut out of VGC/VGF. Poly's shut out was a brief 6 month speculative resale run, that already was significantly losing steam. Plus VGF2 was 207 at the time.

Short term, I don't think Poly does better with new members either. Longer term though, it will definitely do better than VDH and probably the nadir of VGF when it was poorly priced against RIV.

Just like VGF-RIV, we're again going to see new members really care about costs.

 

[MerlinandtheMouse]

I was listening to the new DVC show podcast and I know @pkrieger2287 and crew called the points chart reasonable/incentives generous and thought the sales were gangbusters... but I think that's a little against what we are starting to see.

I also made note of this. Seemed a bit bizarre to me considering the reality we’ve all been discussing here. It’s also funny they said that when they’ve commented many times how unreasonable the point chart at Riviera is, but the tower is equal, if not worse, for most seasons. Though I guess the whole show is basically a large ad for DVCRM so it makes sense to hype up the resort that’s an easier sell on the resale market.

 

[CastAStone]

might be 10% of sales, it might be 50%

I bet it’s way less than 10%.

 

[BrianLo]

I bet it’s way less than 10%.

I think so too. We’re threading a needle of people who are savvy enough to slow roll the purchase, but impulsive enough to go direct when there is a viable resale alternative. Meaning they likely are trying to use the points instantly.

 

[BrianLo]

DVC Fan Facebook group members are reporting their guides are saying new member volume is already slower than expected. Though who knows, because in general I think new members rarely have a long lead time before a purchase decision. Plus, it’s like a day of data.

Unsurprisingly, pricing is the cited reason.

 

[maui22]

Barring a deluge of contracts being recorded the next 2 days, looks like VDH will remain on top for first ~2 weeks of recorded deeds.

Coincidentially (or not?) it looks like the last 3 big sellers, VGF2, VDH, and PVB2, all had their contracts start to appear on the 15th of the month in their respective comptroller sites, each during 31 day months.

PVB2: 67.7k with 2 days remaining
VDH: 147k from May 15-31st, 2023 (source: me)
VGF2: 116k from March 15-31st, 2022 (source: https://dvcnews.com/dvc-program-men...-sales-resume-direct-sales-jump-in-march-2022)

Hopefully this is a sign that more incentives are coming.

Unfortunately, I'm not counting on them. @wdrl numbers show RIV has 25 months at current pace. When combined with his annual points sold information, they should have majority of PVB2 sold by the time River Country is ready for sales. (CFW is just not a major product for sales so far, so RIV + PVB will remain the WDW sales drivers).


An extra $5-$10/point incentive on RIV or PVB2 will move more inventory. I wouldn't list any new product with it's best price. Make the most per point for the first few months. December have a sale on RIV or PVB2 to move more of it's inventory. Then, in spring, I would give the other resort incentives to take advantage of the seasonal effect. Ask a realtor if October-December is a good time to list a house in most markets. Then ask them if spring is better.

 

[ehh]

Hopefully this is a sign that more incentives are coming.

Unfortunately, I'm not counting on them.

I'm also not counting on better post-incentive net pricing. I do think we will see better incentives, but only when the base price increases, ultimately leading to a higher net price.

I think we'll see much of what we saw with RIV vs. VGF2: lowest price sells best. While I think VGF and PVB are likely 'more desirable' than RIV, I think that is baked into the points charts and comparative sales will largely go the way of pricing.

 

[maui22]

10/30/24 deeds
29 for 3,664 points.
That's an average of 126.34 points/deed.
0 Favorite week deeds.

Units 88D, 88E, and 88F. (IIRC, the only declared unit not showing any deeds so far is 88C)

Document#

Contract#

Recorded Date

Palm Tree Date

Unit

UY

Points

Comment

20240620551​	3007553.001​	10/30/24​	10/2/24​	88E	MAR	34​
20240620554​	14016817.002​	10/30/24​	10/17/24​	88E	AUG	50​
20240620561​	11004097.004​	10/30/24​	10/6/24​	88E	OCT	200​
20240620572​	13019715.001​	10/30/24​	10/6/24​	88E	DEC	200​
20240620585​	7069460.002​	10/30/24​	10/14/24​	88E	SEP	100​
20240622141​	14030609.000​	10/30/24​	10/18/24​	88E	AUG	150​
20240622156​	14030659.000​	10/30/24​	10/18/24​	88F	SEP	300​
20240622357​	9020173.008​	10/30/24​	10/2/24​	88E	DEC	150​
20240622361​	7092184.001​	10/30/24​	10/9/24​	88E	AUG	150​
20240622362​	16009387.001​	10/30/24​	10/17/24​	88F	DEC	50​
20240622365​	11006516.001​	10/30/24​	10/12/24​	88E	JUN	300​
20240622366​	10003457.001​	10/30/24​	10/18/24​	88E	JUN	25​
20240622367​	13023718.001​	10/30/24​	10/2/24​	88E	JUN	100​
20240622368​	14030384.001​	10/30/24​	10/1/24​	88D	AUG	175​
20240622371​	10030972.002​	10/30/24​	10/6/24​	88E	MAR	150​
20240622372​	15018286.001​	10/30/24​	10/6/24​	88D	DEC	310​
20240622641​	14024866.002​	10/30/24​	10/14/24​	88E	JUN	50​	hand written palm tree date
20240622668​	7063591.007​	10/30/24​	10/18/24​	88E	OCT	50​
20240622670​	13001468.001​	10/30/24​	10/2/24​	88D	APR	50​
20240622686​	14023388.002​	10/30/24​	10/18/24​	88E	MAR	75​
20240622691​	5013376.004​	10/30/24​	10/2/24​	88E	AUG	150​
20240622715​	15014675.012​	10/30/24​	10/12/24​	88D	AUG	100​
20240622719​	15014675.013​	10/30/24​	10/12/24​	88D	AUG	100​
20240622724​	15014675.011​	10/30/24​	10/12/24​	88D	AUG	100​
20240622744​	16042887.002​	10/30/24​	10/8/24​	88E	AUG	160​
20240622746​	5013761.003​	10/30/24​	10/16/24​	88E	OCT	50​
20240622753​	16039081.001​	10/30/24​	10/18/24​	88E	SEP	75​
20240622757​	16042887.003​	10/30/24​	10/8/24​	88E	AUG	160​
20240622835​	16046194.001​	10/30/24​	10/18/24​	88F	OCT	100​

 

[maui22]

10/31/24 deeds
18 for 2,302 points.
That's an average of 127.89 points/deed.
1 Favorite week deed.

Units 88D, 88E, and 88F. (IIRC, the only declared unit not showing any deeds so far is 88C)

Document#

Contract#

Recorded Date

Palm Tree Date

Unit

UY

Points

Comment

20240623451​	14022869.005​	10/31/24​	10/15/24​	88E	APR	125​
20240623474​	9038465.001​	10/31/24​	10/6/24​	88D	SEP	150​
20240623476​	14022869.004​	10/31/24​	10/15/24​	88E	APR	100​
20240623931​	15002536.002​	10/31/24​	10/12/24​	88D	JUN	80​
20240624053​	9031052.002​	10/31/24​	10/11/24​	88E	DEC	65​
20240624166​	16002676.003​	10/31/24​	10/17/24​	88E	SEP	232​	FW #6 TOWER STUDIO TPV
20240625784​	14030556.000​	10/31/24​	10/3/24​	88D	AUG	100​
20240625816​	6867.003​	10/31/24​	10/11/24​	88E	MAR	125​
20240625839​	4033855.002​	10/31/24​	10/19/24​	88E	FEB	200​
20240625857​	6002583.005​	10/31/24​	10/10/24​	88E	MAR	150​
20240625888​	7067462.001​	10/31/24​	10/2/24​	88D	FEB	250​
20240625911​	12006843.006​	10/31/24​	10/2/24​	88E	OCT	250​
20240626037​	13018382.001​	10/31/24​	10/10/24​	88E	AUG	50​
20240626038​	13017263.001​	10/31/24​	10/2/24​	88D	MAR	150​
20240626049​	14003752.005​	10/31/24​	10/16/24​	88E	MAR	150​
20240626071​	14006490.001​	10/31/24​	10/19/24​	88E	AUG	25​
20240626092​	14008670.001​	10/31/24​	10/3/24​	88E	OCT	50​
20240626100​	14029000.001​	10/31/24​	10/3/24​	88D	MAR	50​

 

[maui22]

Totals I am seeing for October deeds
565 deeds with 73,527 points. That's an average of 130.14 points per deed. (11/6, corrected the total to be 90 points lower...double checking my data)

9 Favorite week deeds.

• 1 1BR SV
• 6 Studio TPV
• 18 Studio SV
• 39 Studio SV
• 42 Studio SV
• 49 Studio SV - I missed this when I first entered data
• 50 1BR TPV
• 50 Studio SV
• 52 Studio TPV- I missed this when I first entered data

Going to caution again, better to wait for Wil Lovato @wdrl data in his monthly DVCNews sales articles. He's more thorough on this. I wouldn't expect a significant difference, but he may find deeds I missed. He may also catch things I have incorrect.

One quick question for anyone familiar with the occompt web site. Years ago, they used to allow selecting all the deeds and downloading it into a single PDF. Is that still possible? If so, would you mind letting me know? It would drastically simplify what I'm doing (having to deal with captcha every 5 deeds I look at). It would also make it easier for me to download all deeds regardless of what the resort is (I know the county messes this up).

 

[MerlinandtheMouse]

Totals I am seeing for October deeds
565 deeds with 73,617 points.

Hmm, admittedly I’m unfamiliar with what add-on sales looked like the first month of other new resorts but this feels…meh? They do this much at RIV nearly every month, why would they claim they’re so busy this time?

 

[supercarrie]

Hmm, admittedly I’m unfamiliar with what add-on sales looked like the first month of other new resorts but this feels…meh? They do this much at RIV nearly every month, why would they claim they’re so busy this time?

Perhaps they had a busy "day one" because of the small pent up demand. Otherwise, I chalk it up to them trying to create a sense of urgency.

My guide called or emailed me four times in the first five days it went on sale. If they were that busy, I presume he wouldn't have had time to do that.

 

[JackosinDIS]

Hmm, admittedly I’m unfamiliar with what add-on sales looked like the first month of other new resorts but this feels…meh? They do this much at RIV nearly every month, why would they claim they’re so busy this time?

Don’t forget that’s only the first half of October. But still not what I would call knock out sales.

 

[Sandisw]

Don’t forget that’s only the first half of October. But still not what I would call knock out sales.

True but all months are reported like that. So, when we compare this to the BPK and VDH first recordings it doesn’t seem to be in their realm yet.

I think the first three month average is what gives us more insight.

 

[maui22]

Hmm, admittedly I’m unfamiliar with what add-on sales looked like the first month of other new resorts but this feels…meh? They do this much at RIV nearly every month, why would they claim they’re so busy this time?

A better comparison would be what @ehh posted showing these numbers are behind VDH and VGF2 (which also had 17 days of data for the first month). Linking to his post https://www.disboards.com/threads/d...ales-information.3955521/page-6#post-65803879

• VDH (147K May 15-31, 2023) may have benefited from big demand for another DL DVC. VGC was so popular, tiny, and saw huge increase in the value (I remember being offered direct for $85/pt in 2009). I believe @ehh data shows VDH sales have not been strong since those first 3 months. https://www.disboards.com/threads/vdh-unit-and-sales-tracker.3918952/
• VGF (116K March 15-31st, 2022).

I believe resale prices start dropping in the fall/winter and begin recovering in spring. If I'm right, that shows seasonal effect.
Additionally, ask a realtor if it's better to list a house in October or March-May.

Impossible to know if Disney is happy with these numbers or not.

Are consumers are acting any different in delaying closings this year compared to other years. Sales starting in the last quarter of a year divisible by 4. BLT is one resort that I did and way back in 2009, I went back through all the BLT sales data going to the start. IIRC those sales were even worse than PVB2, but that was also during the great recession.

Judging on 17 days (really only 13 days of county data) seems a bit early to know how things will look in 6 months.

 

[maui22]

True but all months are reported like that. So, when we compare this to the BPK and VDH first recordings it doesn’t seem to be in their realm yet.

I think the first three month average is what gives us more insight.

Is the first 3 months a good judgement?

I used data from @ehh VDH sales thread and then also used data from @wdrl DVCNews sales articles from 2023.

• May 147,047
• June 161,817
• July 94,176
• August 51,624
• September 51,624
• October 33,017
• November 31,793
• December 16,805

PVB 2015 (first year) - Used @wdrl DVCNews articles from 2023.

• January 13,048
• Feb 61,050
• March 75,649
• April 44,582
• May 59.752
• June 107,067
• July 98,795
• August 78,975
• Sept 82,909
• October 80,712
• November 79,601
• December 76,445

@wdrl used to post he would like to be a fly on the wall of DVD internal meetings. Only Disney knows what they expected sales to be.

 

[MerlinandtheMouse]

A better comparison would be what @ehh posted showing these numbers are behind VDH and VGF2 (which also had 17 days of data for the first month). Linking to his post https://www.disboards.com/threads/d...ales-information.3955521/page-6#post-65803879

• VDH (147K May 15-31, 2023) may have benefited from big demand for another DL DVC. VGC was so popular, tiny, and saw huge increase in the value (I remember being offered direct for $85/pt in 2009). I believe @ehh data shows VDH sales have not been strong since those first 3 months. https://www.disboards.com/threads/vdh-unit-and-sales-tracker.3918952/
• VGF (116K March 15-31st, 2022).

I believe resale prices start dropping in the fall/winter and begin recovering in spring. If I'm right, that shows seasonal effect.
Additionally, ask a realtor if it's better to list a house in October or March-May.

Impossible to know if Disney is happy with these numbers or not.

Are consumers are acting any different in delaying closings this year compared to other years. Sales starting in the last quarter of a year divisible by 4. BLT is one resort that I did and way back in 2009, I went back through all the BLT sales data going to the start. IIRC those sales were even worse than PVB2, but that was also during the great recession.

Judging on 17 days (really only 13 days of county data) seems a bit early to know how things will look in 6 months.

This is absolutely fair enough. I guess I had higher personal expectations given all the hype, lack of restrictions, $225/pt entry, as well as, hearing the guides say they’ve been so slammed (mine said that), etc. But like you said, there’s plenty of reason the numbers look the way they do. And I agree, the full picture is months away.