Disney Stock News & Earnings

[SuzErwin]

Magic Kingdom capacity is near 90k. If we are at 40k then something is definitely wrong.

Travel is down due to the pandemic, which is still top of mind for many people, and inflation, which is affecting things like gas prices. We are still not back to 2019 numbers of air travelers per the TSA checkpoint reports.

 

[Aluminum Falcon]

Many of us love Disney. We wouldn't be on a message board specifically about Disney if we weren't. Many of us have had great memories and good feels over the years. However things can change and in a hurry. Nothing is too big to fail (banks in 08?) and Disney isn't even amongst the leaders in market caps of all the giant companies. Let's also be real about the poor timing of Disney deciding politics was their main interest considering we are in one of the highest inflationary times...getting worse...more than likely a recession heading this way, interest rates being driven higher faster than people thought Powell would...and entertainment is expendable.

There are many things we aren't talking about because Bruno isn't the only thing we don't talk about around here apparently but we all know what's going on and you really have to have your head in the sand to see how this is not good for the future of Disney assuming they don't go back to again...staying in their lane

We’LL just have to wait for another record breaking quarter, so that everyone can then tell us that it is only for the short term, and you just wait because it going to get soooo bad for them haha.

 

[TheDailyMoo]

We’LL just have to wait for another record breaking quarter, so that everyone can then tell us that it is only for the short term, and you just wait because it going to get soooo bad for them haha.

Yeah I don't understand your angle. Are you a shareholder? Did you purchase shares in the 80s and 90s? Are you that much of an apologist that you can't see what's happening with the company and many of it's loyal fans? Are you mocking because you don't understand what's actually happening? Is mocking your only form of discourse?

Leaving aside ALL politics and all guest experiences that have only become worse and speaking only from the stock's perspective:

Compare it to almost anything in the DOW 30. Look at anything from say 4/2015 and see how you'll have made over 1-5x compared to Dis. You are almost at breakeven for investing in Disney for the last 7 year...6 of which have been part of the greatest bull run in the history of the stock market. That's comparing it to it's Dow peers. Go to tech. See what tech has done comparatively. Even NFLX which has come crashing down is still over 2 times better returns in that time frame. SPY...SPY has more than doubled.

Want to use a longer time frame? Go to January 2000. Run the numbers. You're up a whopping 78 dollars a share for investing your money for 22 years. And as you say all this in a "record quarter". Boy I'd hate to see what happens next month if Dis+ numbers follow NFLX. So at what point will you say yeah maybe there are some issues with the company instead of mocking and trying to make it seem like us realists are insane.

 

[Aluminum Falcon]

Yeah I don't understand your angle. Are you a shareholder? Did you purchase shares in the 80s and 90s? Are you that much of an apologist that you can't see what's happening with the company and many of it's loyal fans? Are you mocking because you don't understand what's actually happening? Is mocking your only form of discourse?

Leaving aside ALL politics and all guest experiences that have only become worse and speaking only from the stock's perspective:

Compare it to almost anything in the DOW 30. Look at anything from say 4/2015 and see how you'll have made over 1-5x compared to Dis. You are almost at breakeven for investing in Disney for the last 7 year...6 of which have been part of the greatest bull run in the history of the stock market. That's comparing it to it's Dow peers. Go to tech. See what tech has done comparatively. Even NFLX which has come crashing down is still over 2 times better returns in that time frame. SPY...SPY has more than doubled.

Want to use a longer time frame? Go to January 2000. Run the numbers. You're up a whopping 78 dollars a share for investing your money for 22 years. And as you say all this in a "record quarter". Boy I'd hate to see what happens next month if Dis+ numbers follow NFLX. So at what point will you say yeah maybe there are some issues with the company instead of mocking and trying to make it seem like us realists are insane.

You cherry pick statistics, this time last year you wouldn’t have a leg to stand on. I do own shares, just rebought actually, I’ve bought and sold Disney a ton. Long term it’s a great stock, and if you know when to buy, short to midrange works out great as well. Again your only line of defense is “just wait” haha. I agree their stock is lack luster right now, but just based off their numbers they are in fine shape, and the market should catch up, I would wager that by the end of the year they’ll be pushing $200 again, but there’s a long time between then and now, and I won’t pretend to be a clairvoyant.

 

[New Mouse]

You cherry pick statistics, this time last year you wouldn’t have a leg to stand on. I do own shares, just rebought actually, I’ve bought and sold Disney a ton. Long term it’s a great stock, and if you know when to buy, short to midrange works out great as well. Again your only line of defense is “just wait” haha. I agree their stock is lack luster right now, but just based off their numbers they are in fine shape, and the market should catch up, I would wager that by the end of the year they’ll be pushing $200 again, but there’s a long time between then and now, and I won’t pretend to be a clairvoyant.

Ha. I'd take that bet 10 times out of 10.

No company in America has been around forever. Just keep that in mind when investing in any stock.

 

[Aluminum Falcon]

Ha. I'd take that bet 10 times out of 10.

No company in America has been around forever. Just keep that in mind when investing in any stock.

I don’t understand what you’re driving at, but ok

 

[TheDailyMoo]

You cherry pick statistics, this time last year you wouldn’t have a leg to stand on.

I gave 7 year and 22 year time frames, you say "last year" but I'm the one cherry picking...hm. Also if you want to play the last year game I very well remember averaging up closer to 200 as I was hoping for a breakout. It failed. Miserably. And if you want to talk last year that was the height of the biggest bull market we've ever had and all Dis could do was look at 200 then drop. NFLX was 700. AMZN was 3700. All stocks were blowing the roof off and DIS couldn't do anything.

I’ve bought and sold Disney a ton

So you're a day/swing trader. Not the target shareholder audience this thread is speaking to. You are not long term buy and hold investing, you are trading. And honestly DIS is an odd stock to day trade or swing trade. I can give you a list of much better ones if that's your thing.

Long term it’s a great stock

You mean like 22 more years?

Again your only line of defense is “just wait” haha

Can you please point me to the post where I keep saying "just wait" haha? Because your use of quotes there indicate I say that in my posts and I honestly can't remember where I wrote that. And is the haha from you or is that supposed to be me saying haha as if I love that the stock I own and the Company I love is falling apart right before our eyes?

I agree their stock is lack luster right now

Lack luster? That's like saying it's just a little drizzly in Orlando during hurricane season.

I would wager that by the end of the year they’ll be pushing $200 again

This might not see $200 again for many many years. Would I love for it to? Sure. But just so you know there's this guy Jerome Powell that is raising our rates faster than you can say Tower of Terror...which is what the market will resemble going forward...at best by the way! The best we can hope for is a sideways market. He just said inflation is not transitory (yeah no kidding) and recession usually follows. We're in a bad mess man. Disney might see a small relief rally here and there but it will keep getting sold off into any strength. This is realism. If by some miracle we're even close to 200 by year's end please...PLEASE feel free to bring this up and ridicule me. But between the macro market and the current negative sentiment brought upon themselves by now involving themselves in social politics I see nothing good on the horizon. GL with the trading tho.

 

[Aluminum Falcon]

I gave 7 year and 22 year time frames, you say "last year" but I'm the one cherry picking...hm. Also if you want to play the last year game I very well remember averaging up closer to 200 as I was hoping for a breakout. It failed. Miserably. And if you want to talk last year that was the height of the biggest bull market we've ever had and all Dis could do was look at 200 then drop. NFLX was 700. AMZN was 3700. All stocks were blowing the roof off and DIS couldn't do anything.


So you're a day/swing trader. Not the target shareholder audience this thread is speaking to. You are not long term buy and hold investing, you are trading. And honestly DIS is an odd stock to day trade or swing trade. I can give you a list of much better ones if that's your thing.


You mean like 22 more years?


Can you please point me to the post where I keep saying "just wait" haha? Because your use of quotes there indicate I say that in my posts and I honestly can't remember where I wrote that. And is the haha from you or is that supposed to be me saying haha as if I love that the stock I own and the Company I love is falling apart right before our eyes?


Lack luster? That's like saying it's just a little drizzly in Orlando during hurricane season.



This might not see $200 again for many many years. Would I love for it to? Sure. But just so you know there's this guy Jerome Powell that is raising our rates faster than you can say Tower of Terror...which is what the market will resemble going forward...at best by the way! The best we can hope for is a sideways market. He just said inflation is not transitory (yeah no kidding) and recession usually follows. We're in a bad mess man. Disney might see a small relief rally here and there but it will keep getting sold off into any strength. This is realism. If by some miracle we're even close to 200 by year's end please...PLEASE feel free to bring this up and ridicule me. But between the macro market and the current negative sentiment brought upon themselves by now involving themselves in social politics I see nothing good on the horizon. GL with the trading tho.

I’m going to keep this short because it is already clear we do not agree. I don’t think you make a consistent argument for the case against Disney as a company. You have brought it back to only valuing them by their stock, which is a poor metric by itself. Like you said, Powell has a lot of influence on the market as a whole. From what I’ve gathered in your argument, Disney has been doing terrible for the last 22 years, which is fine obaurd to say the least, and I believe anyone on the street could easily refute that with little known about the company.I do not like your comparisons to Netflix and Amazon, they are tech saturated, and not a fair comparison, in my eyes. I cherry picked my stats to show how doing so is ridiculous, which you’ve pointed out. The “just wait” is just a trend I’ve been seeing when people point to Disneys downfall, your last post you said to wait and see what the next quarter brings because you believe it will be fire and brimstone, a common theme on these boards, and when it doesn’t come to fruition, then all I end up seeing is wait until next quarter this one was a fluke
I understand negative sentiment, I just believe your argument is off the rails, and your grasping for a lifeline to keep your feelings alive, in this case their stock price.
Not as short as I would have liked it but I’m out

 

[CaptainAmerica]

I do not like your comparisons to Netflix and Amazon, they are tech saturated, and not a fair comparison, in my eyes.

Except Disney restructured their entire company specifically because they wanted to be compared to Netflix. That's why they created DTCI and now DMED. Heck it's why they bought Fox as another "content engine." They jumped up and down screaming "hey guys, look at us, please compare us to Netflix!"

 

[Aluminum Falcon]

Except Disney restructured their entire company specifically because they wanted to be compared to Netflix. That's why they created DTCI and now DMED. Heck it's why they bought Fox as another "content engine." They jumped up and down screaming "hey guys, look at us, please compare us to Netflix!"

I think they saw the writing on the wall with the streaming being the future of TV, and starting buying to make sure they were still competitive in that market moving forward. When you look at the likes of Comcast’s portfolio, aligned with Netflix catalog, in my opinion disney had to make a move. I don’t think they jumped in that direction to be compared to Netflix, I think they did it because they new how big a competitor they would be moving forward

 

[71 Truck]

I once learned a long time ago from a good friend that "you can't argue religion and politics because you are not going to change peoples minds" and he was right. There is always going to be a winner and a looser in the argument.
I think a lot of company's including now Disney are going to find out how much this will hurt their bottom line. I think their stock will continue to decline in the short term however just as in the past it will go back up.

After September 11th and the great depression of 2008/2009 the stock tanked for a while because no one was traveling, the stock eventually went back up as things around the world improved.
As time goes on I think the same will happen with Disney, people, will forget for the most part about this incident and start investing again, as long as Disney does not do something like this again.
They, along with other publicly traded companies, just need to stay out of these kinds of issues and concentrate on growing the business and provide earnings for their stock holders.

 

[Ms Bibbidi]

I once learned a long time ago from a good friend that "you can't argue religion and politics because you are not going to change peoples minds" and he was right. There is always going to be a winner and a looser in the argument.
I think a lot of company's including now Disney are going to find out how much this will hurt their bottom line. I think their stock will continue to decline in the short term however just as in the past it will go back up.

After September 11th and the great depression of 2008/2009 the stock tanked for a while because no one was traveling, the stock eventually went back up as things around the world improved.
As time goes on I think the same will happen with Disney, people, will forget for the most part about this incident and start investing again, as long as Disney does not do something like this again.
They, along with other publicly traded companies, just need to stay out of these kinds of issues and concentrate on growing the business and provide earnings for their stock holders.

I think this is probably right. However, another factor people will closely watch are the actions Disney will take after committing to support their employees' views. Going forward, I think people, especially parents of young children or grandparents even, will monitor the content considering what the high-level Disney management said in those videos; not just Mr. Chapek. I think for the most part, people do not care who delivers water, power, fire service or who pays the bonds. But they will care about Disney content. Inclusive, accepting, loving, kind, happy together is good. "Grooming" will inflame people. That is one thing Disney had to sell; that it was a safe place to escape from the the real world, including not only politics but many other issues. It is a big part of what made it "magical."

 

[SuzErwin]

And if you want to talk last year that was the height of the biggest bull market we've ever had and all Dis could do was look at 200 then drop. NFLX was 700. AMZN was 3700. All stocks were blowing the roof off and DIS couldn't do anything.

Why are you comparing a blue chip stock such as Disney to a more volatile stock like Netflix and expecting the same result? If you want high risk/high potential rate of return, blue chip is not the place to put your money.

But between the macro market and the current negative sentiment brought upon themselves by now involving themselves in social politics I see nothing good on the horizon.

Every reputable analyst agrees Disney's performance/stock price has been depressed by the lingering effects of the pandemic (it received a bounce when vaccines came on line, but subsequent waves eroded the optimism), inflation, travel still not fully rebounded (and now impacted by gas prices), and supply chain issues. Plus the streaming model is out of its high growth stage and is maturing, leading Disney to change strategies (they announced an ad-supported subscription tier for D+) which led to an earlier slide - Wall Street rarely rewards strategy shift announcements - and Netflix missing its numbers spooked the market further. Over 68% of Disney outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors such as Vanguard and BlackRock. Institutional investors do not react out of emotion nor activism.

This is a market correction for the maturation of the streaming market as well as lingering effects of the pandemic/guarding against inflation which affects disposable income spending on things like vacations/non-essential consumer products. However, since no other competitor (at the moment) can match Disney's breadth and depth of content and ability to vertically exploit it, analysts predict Disney will be fine in the long run. But it won't act like a tech stock (and Amazon makes its profits mostly off AWS so it's also tech).

I think they saw the writing on the wall with the streaming being the future of TV, and starting buying to make sure they were still competitive in that market moving forward. When you look at the likes of Comcast’s portfolio, aligned with Netflix catalog, in my opinion disney had to make a move. I don’t think they jumped in that direction to be compared to Netflix, I think they did it because they new how big a competitor they would be moving forward

Precisely. Every entertainment company has jumped to streaming as traditional media distribution channels start going away. Disney, in fact, jumped in early via the Hulu joint venture before building D+, giving them valuable data before launching their own service. And Disney's bread and butter is vertical exploitation of their IP - of course they would launch D+! It's a natural fit with their business model.

 

[Jrb1979]

I once learned a long time ago from a good friend that "you can't argue religion and politics because you are not going to change peoples minds" and he was right. There is always going to be a winner and a looser in the argument.
I think a lot of company's including now Disney are going to find out how much this will hurt their bottom line. I think their stock will continue to decline in the short term however just as in the past it will go back up.

After September 11th and the great depression of 2008/2009 the stock tanked for a while because no one was traveling, the stock eventually went back up as things around the world improved.
As time goes on I think the same will happen with Disney, people, will forget for the most part about this incident and start investing again, as long as Disney does not do something like this again.
They, along with other publicly traded companies, just need to stay out of these kinds of issues and concentrate on growing the business and provide earnings for their stock holders.

I'm not sure it will go back to the days of over $200. It has nothing to do with what's gone on the last few weeks. More so with how the parks are run now. People are fed up with all the added costs and stress of a Disney vacation. I know many here don't want to believe that.

 

[New Mouse]

The "maturation" of the streaming market... aka we pumped our numbers way too much when we first told you how great this was gonna be...

 

[SuzErwin]

The "maturation" of the streaming market... aka we pumped our numbers way too much when we first told you how great this was gonna be...

All markets mature. And all markets have uncertainty. So the overall market makes corrections (it's far more nuanced, but). Disney exceeded analysts' expectations in streaming numbers in Q1 2022 but investors are reacting to the sector.

Disney has a wide moat - wider than Netflix's; it can ride out the correction. Morningstar has it as an undervalued stock and a good value right now; their fair market estimate is $170. But it's a slow growth stock, so expectations of rapid exponential returns will not be realized.

 

[jerry557]

Disney is driving up some good attendance numbers right now because of the 50th and some new headliner attractions coming (Guardians, Tron, etc). I think also its a destination in the short term for a lot of Americans because international travel is still rather limited or cautious. Florida has also been a state with lax COVID rules and thus its become an escape. But what does Disney do beyond that when/if travel returns to normal? What happens when Universal opens their new park? It will be difficult to keep these people coming back if customer satisfaction continues to lag, prices keep going up, competitors are offering more perks, and the CEO seems far more concerned with playing politics with the state's governor rather than improving the guest experience. There is also a chance of a recession on the horizon.

Attendance may stay elevated through this year and into part of next year. After that I think they will start to fall off unless they do something.

 

[Aluminum Falcon]

Disney is driving up some good attendance numbers right now because of the 50th and some new headliner attractions coming (Guardians, Tron, etc). I think also its a destination in the short term for a lot of Americans because international travel is still rather limited or cautious. Florida has also been a state with lax COVID rules and thus its become an escape. But what does Disney do beyond that when/if travel returns to normal? What happens when Universal opens their new park? It will be difficult to keep these people coming back if customer satisfaction continues to lag, prices keep going up, competitors are offering more perks, and the CEO seems far more concerned with playing politics with the state's governor rather than improving the guest experience. There is also a chance of a recession on the horizon.

Attendance may stay elevated through this year and into part of next year. After that I think they will start to fall off unless they do something.

Your assumption that Disney world in particular is looking for repeat customers is a little out of place. I believe the share of repeat guests at Wdw is about 20%. That being said there is plenty of new millenial parents who would probably be happy to bring their kids once or twice during their upbringing. I just believe Disney always has a new crop of kidstomers on the horizon at any given time, and that alone is enough to drive their business. Not to mention all the millennials just looking for nostalgia, that’s a big seller right now too

 

[CaptainAmerica]

However, another factor people will closely watch are the actions Disney will take after committing to support their employees' views.

Disney is not supporting their employees' views. The Reimagine Tomorrow bunch are not representative of Disney's employees. They are a faction within a faction and they've been elevated to sole arbiters of all that it Good and Right. This was not Chapek's doing, it was Iger's doing, and Chapek has been unable to get it under control.

 

[Ms Bibbidi]

Disney is not supporting their employees' views. The Reimagine Tomorrow bunch are not representative of Disney's employees. They are a faction within a faction and they've been elevated to sole arbiters of all that it Good and Right. This was not Chapek's doing, it was Iger's doing, and Chapek has been unable to get it under control.

Ok. I did see the videos of the two employees and Mr. Chapek is the one who used the word "committed." I also saw that Mr. Iger said something after Mr. Chapek's first response that indicated it was the wrong response. So, your points are well taken. Still, Mr. Chapek, speaking from his CEO platform and representing TWDC said they were committed and that is going to be hard to walk back.

So, if you were advising Mr. Chapek at this point, what would you recommend?