mshanson3121
DIS Veteran
- Joined
- Jan 16, 2015
I think we all saw this coming a mile away!
Definitely not May. Very big maybe in time for the 50th and Q1 at WDW. With that many adults choosing not to get it, and no children yet, hope for herd immunity really isn't a thing. That and cases are rising again so some of the work done to slow the spread is being undone. Very disappointing. If it was a small population of adults not getting vaccinated we could move forward faster and say too bad for you, but it's a large enough number that we do have to worry about it. Which is sort of infuriating.Last week was a huge week for vaccinations with 19.3 million getting administered. Given how many adults have received one dose, in three weeks they should all be fully vaccinated. AND if J&J delivers their remaining 15 million doses by mid-April 64% of the adult population will be fully vaccinated and the everyone who wants the shot should have the first dose. So, if the current rate of vaccination continues, then by the end of April, 80% will be vaccinated. That is everyone who wants the vaccine should be vaccinated by the end of April. (25-30% of adults still say they won't get it.) Based on this, I am hoping restrictions start to really ease by mid-April since by then everyone who wants the vaccine will be fully vaccinated or have the first shot. What do you think? Do you see operations at the theme parks getting back to normal by May?
I think that's a very aggressive timeline. Even when we (the US) receives the vaccine doses, it will take time to distribute the doses to the areas where they are needed. With Pfizer, there's 21 days between shots and think Moderna takes something like 28 days between shots. After getting the vaccine, it takes 10-14 days to get full immunity. All of that will take a few months at least. There's also a question about kids since they likely won't be able to get vaccinated until next year.Last week was a huge week for vaccinations with 19.3 million getting administered. Given how many adults have received one dose, in three weeks they should all be fully vaccinated. AND if J&J delivers their remaining 15 million doses by mid-April 64% of the adult population will be fully vaccinated and the everyone who wants the shot should have the first dose. So, if the current rate of vaccination continues, then by the end of April, 80% will be vaccinated. That is everyone who wants the vaccine should be vaccinated by the end of April. (25-30% of adults still say they won't get it.) Based on this, I am hoping restrictions start to really ease by mid-April since by then everyone who wants the vaccine will be fully vaccinated or have the first shot. What do you think? Do you see operations at the theme parks getting back to normal by May?
Nope. Kids under 16 aren’t even eligible and kids 12+ are just as efficient at spreading Covid as adults even though they aren’t as susceptible to becoming ill. Since Disney is marketed as a family park, they won’t relax restrictions with a large portion of their target population not even being allowed to be vaccinated. I think they can certainly add more offerings by summer, but it won’t be “normal” (whatever that is we don’t even know)Last week was a huge week for vaccinations with 19.3 million getting administered. Given how many adults have received one dose, in three weeks they should all be fully vaccinated. AND if J&J delivers their remaining 15 million doses by mid-April 64% of the adult population will be fully vaccinated and the everyone who wants the shot should have the first dose. So, if the current rate of vaccination continues, then by the end of April, 80% will be vaccinated. That is everyone who wants the vaccine should be vaccinated by the end of April. (25-30% of adults still say they won't get it.) Based on this, I am hoping restrictions start to really ease by mid-April since by then everyone who wants the vaccine will be fully vaccinated or have the first shot. What do you think? Do you see operations at the theme parks getting back to normal by May?
I think that's a very aggressive timeline. Even when we (the US) receives the vaccine doses, it will take time to distribute the doses to the areas where they are needed. With Pfizer, there's 21 days between shots and think Moderna takes something like 28 days between shots. After getting the vaccine, it takes 10-14 days to get full immunity. All of that will take a few months at least. There's also a question about kids since they likely won't be able to get vaccinated until next year.
I think Disney will increase capacity a bit over the summer. I think they'll open more restaurants to accommodate the increased number of guests. I also think fireworks will come back to Epcot by late summer. I think the last thing to go will be masks as they don't affect how many people Disney can put in a park. I also think Disney will wait for the CDC to change their guidance before changing their mask policy.
I’d be surprised if the governor actually has the power to do that. Even if he does, what purpose does that serve?So, which is it going to be?
So if you get your first dose this week, in my numbers you would be fully vaccinated in two weeks. The Moderna three week interval would cause a slight change but the 80% rate would be achieved by the first week of May. And
This makes me think that they are getting more confident that they will sail late this summer.
Nope. Kids under 16 aren’t even eligible and kids 12+ are just as efficient at spreading Covid as adults even though they aren’t as susceptible to becoming ill. Since Disney is marketed as a family park, they won’t relax restrictions with a large portion of their target population not even being allowed to be vaccinated. I think they can certainly add more offerings by summer, but it won’t be “normal” (whatever that is we don’t even know)
Oh I agree that masks will be around for a long time and that herd immunity will not be achieved soon. I took Disney getting back to normal as dropping masks...and I don’t think they will do that anytime soon. I think they will also keep some distancing. I think they could bring back fireworks, shows, more restaurants this summer but I think they won’t under the ”safety” arguement when it’s really a ” we don’t want to spend the money” thingThis is why masks will still be around for some time. Masks are still the best bet for preventing the spread of the virus. But keep in mind that the restrictions were originally put in place to slow the spread and relieve the stress on the hospital system. When the majority of adults are vaccinated, this goal will be accomplished. The virus is here to stay. We will not get to herd immunity anytime soon, not just because of children not getting vaccinated but because 25-30% of adults still say they won't get vaccinated. Businesses need to get back to full capacity in order to survive. And although I get your argument on Disney's target audience being children and they won't relax restrictions because their target audience can't get vaccinated yet, they are already moving to circumvent the CDC cruise sailing ban by sailing in Europe. Even masked, I would bet there is a lot more risk of getting infected on a cruise ship versus standing in open air lines (masked) or gathering in the open air for fireworks or parades (masked), even without social distancing.
That is not correct. If you get your first dose of Pfizer this week, you get your second in approximately 21 days, not two weeks. Moderna is a 28 day interval and not a three week interval. You are not considered fully vaccinated by the CDC until 2 weeks after your second dose or two weeks after your J and J one dose.
Related to your post but off-topic - I've been noticing that the majority of people in my area who aren't wearing masks in public in recent days (our state has a mask mandate) are the older people. This is a new development, and I don't have any evidence for why, but my suspicion is that they are vaccinated. People's tolerance for restrictions are going way down after being vaccinated.Here’s an interesting catch 22 with masks and capacity.
went to DS to sort out an AP for my 3 yr old.
I lost count at 10 people... more than 10 people walked by the CM at the ticket door with nose or mask off.
two people inside building had nose out, nothing was said
fast forward to customer service and dealing with some plaids. Again, standing at the door way, greater than 10 people walked past plaids with nose out or mask off- nothing was said.
I was surprised! But this was our first stop. We spent the next three hours at DS and I understand why the CMs didn’t say anything. Almost every other party had mask off/drinking and walking/gaiters on/nose out/etc. legit, serious, mask fatigue by guests (and forget social distancing).
upon leaving, multiple people removed mask at the escalators to the Orange garage (long live lime!)- nothing was said.
The CMs are overwhelmed! How can they increase capacity without changing the mandate some (maybe outside exceptions) or hiring a ton of people to “police” all day.
LOL that the overhead messaging changed. Cough into your hand, wash hands, and if you aren’t wearing a mask we’ll tell you to leave. Signs are literally,” wear your mask, or well ask you to leave. “ None of that influenced people.
So, which is it going to be?