Cruise and Theme Park Operational Updates due to Coronavirus

[mshanson3121]

In other news:

“Vaccine Passports” May Be Required For Travel Starting This Summer

I think we all saw this coming a mile away!

 

[helloconnie]

Last week was a huge week for vaccinations with 19.3 million getting administered. Given how many adults have received one dose, in three weeks they should all be fully vaccinated. AND if J&J delivers their remaining 15 million doses by mid-April 64% of the adult population will be fully vaccinated and the everyone who wants the shot should have the first dose. So, if the current rate of vaccination continues, then by the end of April, 80% will be vaccinated. That is everyone who wants the vaccine should be vaccinated by the end of April. (25-30% of adults still say they won't get it.) Based on this, I am hoping restrictions start to really ease by mid-April since by then everyone who wants the vaccine will be fully vaccinated or have the first shot. What do you think? Do you see operations at the theme parks getting back to normal by May?

 

[helloconnie]

In other news:

“Vaccine Passports” May Be Required For Travel Starting This Summer

Yep. This will motivate those who don't want the vaccine to get it. In a survey, those saying they would not get vaccinated said they would probably get it if the proof of vaccination is required to travel. They want to be able to see family and go on vacation.

 

[hereforthechurros]

Last week was a huge week for vaccinations with 19.3 million getting administered. Given how many adults have received one dose, in three weeks they should all be fully vaccinated. AND if J&J delivers their remaining 15 million doses by mid-April 64% of the adult population will be fully vaccinated and the everyone who wants the shot should have the first dose. So, if the current rate of vaccination continues, then by the end of April, 80% will be vaccinated. That is everyone who wants the vaccine should be vaccinated by the end of April. (25-30% of adults still say they won't get it.) Based on this, I am hoping restrictions start to really ease by mid-April since by then everyone who wants the vaccine will be fully vaccinated or have the first shot. What do you think? Do you see operations at the theme parks getting back to normal by May?

Definitely not May. Very big maybe in time for the 50th and Q1 at WDW. With that many adults choosing not to get it, and no children yet, hope for herd immunity really isn't a thing. That and cases are rising again so some of the work done to slow the spread is being undone. Very disappointing. If it was a small population of adults not getting vaccinated we could move forward faster and say too bad for you, but it's a large enough number that we do have to worry about it. Which is sort of infuriating.

 

[Eric Smith]

Last week was a huge week for vaccinations with 19.3 million getting administered. Given how many adults have received one dose, in three weeks they should all be fully vaccinated. AND if J&J delivers their remaining 15 million doses by mid-April 64% of the adult population will be fully vaccinated and the everyone who wants the shot should have the first dose. So, if the current rate of vaccination continues, then by the end of April, 80% will be vaccinated. That is everyone who wants the vaccine should be vaccinated by the end of April. (25-30% of adults still say they won't get it.) Based on this, I am hoping restrictions start to really ease by mid-April since by then everyone who wants the vaccine will be fully vaccinated or have the first shot. What do you think? Do you see operations at the theme parks getting back to normal by May?

I think that's a very aggressive timeline. Even when we (the US) receives the vaccine doses, it will take time to distribute the doses to the areas where they are needed. With Pfizer, there's 21 days between shots and think Moderna takes something like 28 days between shots. After getting the vaccine, it takes 10-14 days to get full immunity. All of that will take a few months at least. There's also a question about kids since they likely won't be able to get vaccinated until next year.

I think Disney will increase capacity a bit over the summer. I think they'll open more restaurants to accommodate the increased number of guests. I also think fireworks will come back to Epcot by late summer. I think the last thing to go will be masks as they don't affect how many people Disney can put in a park. I also think Disney will wait for the CDC to change their guidance before changing their mask policy.

 

[Mango7100]

Last week was a huge week for vaccinations with 19.3 million getting administered. Given how many adults have received one dose, in three weeks they should all be fully vaccinated. AND if J&J delivers their remaining 15 million doses by mid-April 64% of the adult population will be fully vaccinated and the everyone who wants the shot should have the first dose. So, if the current rate of vaccination continues, then by the end of April, 80% will be vaccinated. That is everyone who wants the vaccine should be vaccinated by the end of April. (25-30% of adults still say they won't get it.) Based on this, I am hoping restrictions start to really ease by mid-April since by then everyone who wants the vaccine will be fully vaccinated or have the first shot. What do you think? Do you see operations at the theme parks getting back to normal by May?

Nope. Kids under 16 aren’t even eligible and kids 12+ are just as efficient at spreading Covid as adults even though they aren’t as susceptible to becoming ill. Since Disney is marketed as a family park, they won’t relax restrictions with a large portion of their target population not even being allowed to be vaccinated. I think they can certainly add more offerings by summer, but it won’t be “normal” (whatever that is we don’t even know)

 

[mrsap]

FL Governor to Sign Executive Order Banning “Vaccine Passports” at Theme Parks, Other Locations

 

[helloconnie]

I think that's a very aggressive timeline. Even when we (the US) receives the vaccine doses, it will take time to distribute the doses to the areas where they are needed. With Pfizer, there's 21 days between shots and think Moderna takes something like 28 days between shots. After getting the vaccine, it takes 10-14 days to get full immunity. All of that will take a few months at least. There's also a question about kids since they likely won't be able to get vaccinated until next year.

I think Disney will increase capacity a bit over the summer. I think they'll open more restaurants to accommodate the increased number of guests. I also think fireworks will come back to Epcot by late summer. I think the last thing to go will be masks as they don't affect how many people Disney can put in a park. I also think Disney will wait for the CDC to change their guidance before changing their mask policy.

There is currently 34.8 million doses that have been delivered but have not been administered yet and that is before this week's distribution. If all three pharmaceuticals meet their March 31 deliverable, then we will see another 44.3 million doses distributed this week into next week. The problem right now is not supply but getting the vaccines in arms. Appointments are booked everywhere. More resources are needed to administer the vaccines. But the current rate of vaccinations should hold so it is only a matter of time to get them all administered. My numbers take into consideration the two shot regime. I have a chart that shows timing when second dose for those that have already received the first dose. So if you get your first dose this week, in my numbers you would be fully vaccinated in three weeks. The Moderna three week interval would cause a slight change but the 80% rate would be achieved by the first week of May. And of course the full immunity would be a sliding scale as well. Those who get their second dose this week would be fully covered in two weeks and so forth so that those who get their second dose at the end of April would be fully covered by the second week of May. Personally, I don't think we will get to herd immunity, not because children aren't being vaccinated but because there is still 25-20% of adults who say they won't get the shot. Herd Immunity means 95% have been vaccinated or had the virus and built immunity. Businesses have to be allowed to fully open once the majority of adults are vaccinated. The entire shut-down process was meant to slow down the spread in order to relieve stress on the hospital system, not to force everyone into isolation and bankrupt businesses. This is exactly why masks will still be around for some time. Until everyone can get vaccinated, the mask is still the best protection from spreading or getting the virus.

 

[OKW Lover]

In other news:

“Vaccine Passports” May Be Required For Travel Starting This Summer

FL Governor to Sign Executive Order Banning “Vaccine Passports” at Theme Parks, Other Locations

So, which is it going to be?

 

[Eric Smith]

So, which is it going to be?

I’d be surprised if the governor actually has the power to do that. Even if he does, what purpose does that serve?

 

[Mango7100]

So if you get your first dose this week, in my numbers you would be fully vaccinated in two weeks. The Moderna three week interval would cause a slight change but the 80% rate would be achieved by the first week of May. And

That is not correct. If you get your first dose of Pfizer this week, you get your second in approximately 21 days, not two weeks. Moderna is a 28 day interval and not a three week interval. You are not considered fully vaccinated by the CDC until 2 weeks after your second dose or two weeks after your J and J one dose.

 

[mrsap]

Disney Cruise Line Discounts and Special Offers Released the Week of March 28, 2021

 

[closetmickey]

Disney Cruise Line Discounts and Special Offers Released the Week of March 28, 2021

This makes me think that they are getting more confident that they will sail late this summer.

 

[helloconnie]

Nope. Kids under 16 aren’t even eligible and kids 12+ are just as efficient at spreading Covid as adults even though they aren’t as susceptible to becoming ill. Since Disney is marketed as a family park, they won’t relax restrictions with a large portion of their target population not even being allowed to be vaccinated. I think they can certainly add more offerings by summer, but it won’t be “normal” (whatever that is we don’t even know)

This is why masks will still be around for some time. Masks are still the best bet for preventing the spread of the virus. But keep in mind that the restrictions were originally put in place to slow the spread and relieve the stress on the hospital system. When the majority of adults are vaccinated, this goal will be accomplished. The virus is here to stay. We will not get to herd immunity anytime soon, not just because of children not getting vaccinated but because 25-30% of adults still say they won't get vaccinated. Businesses need to get back to full capacity in order to survive. And although I get your argument on Disney's target audience being children and they won't relax restrictions because their target audience can't get vaccinated yet, they are already moving to circumvent the CDC cruise sailing ban by sailing in Europe. Even masked, I would bet there is a lot more risk of getting infected on a cruise ship versus standing in open air lines (masked) or gathering in the open air for fireworks or parades (masked), even without social distancing.

 

[Mango7100]

This is why masks will still be around for some time. Masks are still the best bet for preventing the spread of the virus. But keep in mind that the restrictions were originally put in place to slow the spread and relieve the stress on the hospital system. When the majority of adults are vaccinated, this goal will be accomplished. The virus is here to stay. We will not get to herd immunity anytime soon, not just because of children not getting vaccinated but because 25-30% of adults still say they won't get vaccinated. Businesses need to get back to full capacity in order to survive. And although I get your argument on Disney's target audience being children and they won't relax restrictions because their target audience can't get vaccinated yet, they are already moving to circumvent the CDC cruise sailing ban by sailing in Europe. Even masked, I would bet there is a lot more risk of getting infected on a cruise ship versus standing in open air lines (masked) or gathering in the open air for fireworks or parades (masked), even without social distancing.

Oh I agree that masks will be around for a long time and that herd immunity will not be achieved soon. I took Disney getting back to normal as dropping masks...and I don’t think they will do that anytime soon. I think they will also keep some distancing. I think they could bring back fireworks, shows, more restaurants this summer but I think they won’t under the ”safety” arguement when it’s really a ” we don’t want to spend the money” thing

 

[helloconnie]

That is not correct. If you get your first dose of Pfizer this week, you get your second in approximately 21 days, not two weeks. Moderna is a 28 day interval and not a three week interval. You are not considered fully vaccinated by the CDC until 2 weeks after your second dose or two weeks after your J and J one dose.

My mistype. Corrected my other post. You are correct and my numbers are a sliding scale of three weeks interval between doses. Which would mean a slight change for those getting the Moderna vaccine which is a 4 week interval. That means that at the end of April, approximately 3.4% will have one more week to wait for their second dose of Moderna. So by the first week of May approximately 80% of the adult population will have had all their shots but those who got their shots in last week of April/first week of May will not be fully covered until the third week of May. Just as a side note, the weekly rate of vaccination I am using is more lower than the last week's rate. So if we continue at last week's pace, the timeline shifts up. Bottom line, any adult who wants the shot should have it within the next month and a half.

 

[Missingmypooh]

Here’s an interesting catch 22 with masks and capacity.

went to DS to sort out an AP for my 3 yr old.

I lost count at 10 people... more than 10 people walked by the CM at the ticket door with nose or mask off.
two people inside building had nose out, nothing was said

fast forward to customer service and dealing with some plaids. Again, standing at the door way, greater than 10 people walked past plaids with nose out or mask off- nothing was said.

I was surprised! But this was our first stop. We spent the next three hours at DS and I understand why the CMs didn’t say anything. Almost every other party had mask off/drinking and walking/gaiters on/nose out/etc. legit, serious, mask fatigue by guests (and forget social distancing).

upon leaving, multiple people removed mask at the escalators to the Orange garage (long live lime!)- nothing was said.

The CMs are overwhelmed! How can they increase capacity without changing the mandate some (maybe outside exceptions) or hiring a ton of people to “police” all day.

LOL that the overhead messaging changed. Cough into your hand, wash hands, and if you aren’t wearing a mask we’ll tell you to leave. Signs are literally,” wear your mask, or well ask you to leave. “ None of that influenced people.

 

[helloconnie]

And here is the announcement...

Most Americans will be eligible for Covid-19 vaccine by mid-April, Biden says (nbcnews.com)

 

[J-Dog]

Here’s an interesting catch 22 with masks and capacity.

went to DS to sort out an AP for my 3 yr old.

I lost count at 10 people... more than 10 people walked by the CM at the ticket door with nose or mask off.
two people inside building had nose out, nothing was said

fast forward to customer service and dealing with some plaids. Again, standing at the door way, greater than 10 people walked past plaids with nose out or mask off- nothing was said.

I was surprised! But this was our first stop. We spent the next three hours at DS and I understand why the CMs didn’t say anything. Almost every other party had mask off/drinking and walking/gaiters on/nose out/etc. legit, serious, mask fatigue by guests (and forget social distancing).

upon leaving, multiple people removed mask at the escalators to the Orange garage (long live lime!)- nothing was said.

The CMs are overwhelmed! How can they increase capacity without changing the mandate some (maybe outside exceptions) or hiring a ton of people to “police” all day.

LOL that the overhead messaging changed. Cough into your hand, wash hands, and if you aren’t wearing a mask we’ll tell you to leave. Signs are literally,” wear your mask, or well ask you to leave. “ None of that influenced people.

Related to your post but off-topic - I've been noticing that the majority of people in my area who aren't wearing masks in public in recent days (our state has a mask mandate) are the older people. This is a new development, and I don't have any evidence for why, but my suspicion is that they are vaccinated. People's tolerance for restrictions are going way down after being vaccinated.

 

[helloconnie]

So, which is it going to be?

Political Posturing. It's not really within his domain to tell businesses they can't ask for proof of vaccine. For instance, most ports of calls for cruise ships will require proof of vaccination so cruise lines must ask for it. Notice that cruise lines and airlines were not mentioned as a scenario were it would not be acceptable. How can you ban it for some businesses and not for others?