To guarantee getting it you need to start walking with mid-September time when BWV standard studios (and thus also 2BRs which are all lock-offs) are invariably open well past 8 a.m. at 11 months out. Once you get to Oct arrival time, the BWV standard studios/2BRs have a risk of filling for any given day either before or very quickly after 8 a.m. eastern at 11 months out. It does not happen every day but there is no certainty for any given day it will not. If you want to wait to begin walking later, such as in November, then best chance to find a possible start date open is between the day after Food & Wine ends and the Thursday that is a week before Thanksgiving, and also the Saturday or Sunday after Thanksgiving. If you wait beyond that time to start walking, the risk of failing to find a start date becomes higher, and if you wait untill 11 months out from your desired arrival date in early Dec, the risk is very high that you will not get it unless you are one of the lucky ones whose computer communicates faster than anyone else's computer with Disney's computer at exactly 8 a.m. at 11 months out.