For me, it is simple math... 4 people, 4 days in the parks, 3 nights needing a room...going in May, so we always want EPs.
EPs for 4 people, for 4 days...on the dates we are going, with tax, are $1831. Any decent room, off-site, is going to run at least $100/night.
The grand total is $2131. I do not include tickets or food, because they are going to be the same cost no matter...the only variables are room and EPs.
So, as long as I can book a room, for 3 nights, at one of the onsite hotels that offer EPs, for $2131 or less, I am golden.
Right now, without APH rates, RPR has rooms, that meet our needs, for $309/night. With tax, that will come to about $350/night...so, about $1050...which is half of what I would pay for EPs and an off-site hotel. No-brainer what to do.
But, it gets better...I have never failed to get an APH rate for more than $250/night at any of the three hotels (RPR, HRH, PBH)...I just go with the cheapest, at the time...not picky...love 'em all.
Your mileage will vary by the number of people and days in park...and the big one...can you live without the EPs?
Now, I just need to find those APH rates...had already booked HRH, by this time, last year...but, even at seasonal rates, I am still saving.