5th Park inevitable ?

[rteetz]

No, you are right.
Walt wasn't that good at logistics. He just had an expectation that nothing was impossible.
The current staff at disney for as much as we nitpick what they do, are masters of logistics.
My magic is but one example. Does it work to your expectations, maybe not, but it does do some amazing things, especially when it's working right.

Think about transportation logistics around the parks. Staffing, what a nightmare, but it gets done.
My above idea isn't as crazy as many they've made work, and I did suggest also that an idea they've already implemented in California, might be a better fit here. They already have the tech in place, I just think it's time to modify it to adjust to the growth of the business. Some sort of value adder.
Book onsite, get that 4th and 5th fast pass sooner. Maybe allow a park hopping guest to book their first 3 in separate parks. Good neighbor hotel, sorry, you still only get the first 3. There is a million cool little things, that could add that value.

Things like free arrival day single park afternoon admission(no fastpasses maybe), when you buy a 6+ ticket.

I don’t disagree I just don’t think “no wait” type access is worth it to Disney when people are paying top dollar for that sort of thing with VIP guides.

 

[Remy is Up]

Also depends on what kind of "park" universal builds. Another park with a bunch of screens and little to no originality? I just went last week and imho, Jurassic ( currently being refurbished) Harry Potter rides (2), Mummy, Hulk, and Rip Ride Rocket are the only attractions with return value. Everything else is the same screens with a different theme and it has very little original theming or thought. Based on how awful Volcano Bay is as a water park, I would hesitate to think a new theme "park" would be any different from what they are currently doing. I can go to Sea World or BG Tampa and find more rides with return value than at both of the Universal parks combined. So I dont think Disney is competing against Universal as much as they are against their super fans, AP holders, etc and themselves. I dont expect Universal to put half the work into a new gate as they did with the Harry Potter land. They will rush to open and overuse simulator screen rides just to say they have a new park.

 

[jade1]

Also depends on what kind of "park" universal builds. Another park with a bunch of screens and little to no originality? I just went last week and imho, Jurassic ( currently being refurbished) Harry Potter rides (2), Mummy, Hulk, and Rip Ride Rocket are the only attractions with return value. Everything else is the same screens with a different theme and it has very little original theming or thought. Based on how awful Volcano Bay is as a water park, I would hesitate to think a new theme "park" would be any different from what they are currently doing. I can go to Sea World or BG Tampa and find more rides with return value than at both of the Universal parks combined. So I dont think Disney is competing against Universal as much as they are against their super fans, AP holders, etc and themselves. I dont expect Universal to put half the work into a new gate as they did with the Harry Potter land. They will rush to open and overuse simulator screen rides just to say they have a new park.

Yea kinda the same, although HP rides will be back to 3 soon. They lost a great one though IMO.

 

[YesterDark]

It’s pieces of the leaks we’ve been seeing for months so I’d assume it’s real.

Another park certainly helps Universal get closer to Disney but I think people will still prefer Disney to universal for a vacation. A 5th gate also isn’t necessarily going to draw more people than a new land. Look at Animal Kingdom for example.

I disagree with this one. A 5th gate that is a fully realized park with the scope and design of what we're expecting in SWGE will be a gigantic draw. I don't know how you can compare a theme park of that scope with a AK which is half zoo half theme park. WDW has two iconic parks, Epcot and MK that have their own logo and feel to them. AK is what it is and Hollywood Studios is going through a full blown identity crisis that is going through a 10 year make over that, once it's complete, still won't be set up with a coherent theme over all and will be a hodgepodge of different lands.

A full 5th gate from Disney where the theming is done from the start would be a blockbuster. A park like the one in the leaks at Universal could potentially add a big dent in WDW numbers. If it's design is anything like MK with ride capacity and excelled theming and IP then you'll have plenty of people going there instead of AK/Epcot with their family.

 

[rteetz]

I disagree with this one. A 5th gate that is a fully realized park with the scope and design of what we're expecting in SWGE will be a gigantic draw. I don't know how you can compare a theme park of that scope with a AK which is half zoo half theme park. WDW has two iconic parks, Epcot and MK that have their own logo and feel to them. AK is what it is and Hollywood Studios is going through a full blown identity crisis that is going through a 10 year make over that, once it's complete, still won't be set up with a coherent theme over all and will be a hodgepodge of different lands.

A full 5th gate from Disney where the theming is done from the start would be a blockbuster. A park like the one in the leaks at Universal could potentially add a big dent in WDW numbers. If it's design is anything like MK with ride capacity and excelled theming and IP then you'll have plenty of people going there instead of AK/Epcot with their family.

What would be that theme though? Not every theme is going to be a blockbuster hit. Each Disney Park around the world at least starts with a vision of a specific theme.

Not to mention the many other risks or issues involved in building another Florida theme park.

I’ll disagree with you forever on Animal Kingdom. It’s my favorite park and a truly incredible theme park. Arguably one of the most detailed and well themed parks in the world.

Hollywood studios is moving from a studio theme to a park that puts you inside the movies.

 

[YesterDark]

What would be that theme though? Not every theme is going to be a blockbuster hit. Each Disney Park around the world at least starts with a vision of a specific theme.

Not to mention the many other risks or issues involved in building another Florida theme park.

I’ll disagree with you forever on Animal Kingdom. It’s my favorite park and a truly incredible theme park. Arguably one of the most detailed and well themed parks in the world.

Hollywood studios is moving from a studio theme to a park that puts you inside the movies.

You want to start theory crafting a new theme park? I'm willing to bet a few glasses of scotch between the two of us, we could come up with a few ideas that could at least start the conversation before logistics and cost come in to play. There are plenty of ideas out there already since this isn't a new topic. The most popular one is a Villain park. Imagine a mirror image of MK but it's all Villains. I'm not the expert here though.

There are always risks to any major project of that magnitude. Labor, logistics, land, space, cost etc. I'm handwaving those issues away and just discussing what if Disney built a brand new theme park in florida, and it was great, how would it impact the market and visitor vacation habits and routines.

Regarding AK, I'm not saying it's a bad park, and I think it's wonderfully themed. But look at the gate numbers compared to MK. Let's compare the numbers of HS once SWGE opens and it's been operating for a full year. AK with one of the most popular rides on property still can't gain traction over Epcot or HS. Everyone has their favorites, but that's anecdotal.

HS is a mess. It will be a mess for a long time. I really love the direction their going, but until they actually add additional lands like Cars, Jones, Monsters, Incredibles to balance out SWGE, it'll still be a confusion of different themes and different directions the park has gone through throughout it's life. To be fully realized they need to somehow remove a lot of the "Hollywood" theming outside the entrance to the Chinese Theater area. The park is just a giant pile of bandaids, but SWGE and TSL are gigantic, monumental steps in the right direction. The non-land areas are going to need some better themeing and facing down the road.

 

[The Pho]

AK with one of the most popular rides on property still can't gain traction over Epcot or HS. Everyone has their favorites, but that's anecdotal.

Animal Kingdom has higher attendance than both of those parks.

 

[rteetz]

You want to start theory crafting a new theme park? I'm willing to bet a few glasses of scotch between the two of us, we could come up with a few ideas that could at least start the conversation before logistics and cost come in to play. There are plenty of ideas out there already since this isn't a new topic. The most popular one is a Villain park. Imagine a mirror image of MK but it's all Villains. I'm not the expert here though.

There are always risks to any major project of that magnitude. Labor, logistics, land, space, cost etc. I'm handwaving those issues away and just discussing what if Disney built a brand new theme park in florida, and it was great, how would it impact the market and visitor vacation habits and routines.

Regarding AK, I'm not saying it's a bad park, and I think it's wonderfully themed. But look at the gate numbers compared to MK. Let's compare the numbers of HS once SWGE opens and it's been operating for a full year. AK with one of the most popular rides on property still can't gain traction over Epcot or HS. Everyone has their favorites, but that's anecdotal.

HS is a mess. It will be a mess for a long time. I really love the direction their going, but until they actually add additional lands like Cars, Jones, Monsters, Incredibles to balance out SWGE, it'll still be a confusion of different themes and different directions the park has gone through throughout it's life. To be fully realized they need to somehow remove a lot of the "Hollywood" theming outside the entrance to the Chinese Theater area. The park is just a giant pile of bandaids, but SWGE and TSL are gigantic, monumental steps in the right direction. The non-land areas are going to need some better themeing and facing down the road.

The villains idea is good in concept but again I’m not sure it’s feasible long term. I’d love to see more villains in the existing parks though. If Disney does build another park I think they will go with a boutique park sort of like a Discovery Bay concept rather than full blown new park.

Would it impact vacation habits though? Guests only have so many vacation days. They now would be taking away days from the existing parks and/or other areas like Disney Springs.

Animal Kingdom made a huge jump with Pandora in 2017 and it was only open for half the year. I’m really interested in 2018 numbers. Epcot is suffering severely. If it didn’t have the festivals it would be without a doubt the least attended park right now.

The Hollywood theming if your entrance to those different worlds. They aren’t removing that anytime soon as they keep adding it. The new entrances and bus stops are all themed that way.

 

[YesterDark]

Animal Kingdom has higher attendance than both of those parks.

I could only find hard data for 2017, but if you can show me 2018 data I'd love to see it. So this is what I'm going on.

Park    Growth   Attendance in Millions
MK      0.3         20.45
Epcot   4.2        12.2
AK      15.3       12.5
HS     -0.5        10.7

AK is on par with Epcot after the addition of Pandora. It grew a large 15% over 2016 which is to be expected. Did they see similar growth in 2018? Or are they going to be floating close to Epcot numbers like they did in 2017?

Hollywood Studios has an obvious excuse.

 

[rteetz]

I could only find hard data for 2017, but if you can show me 2018 data I'd love to see it. So this is what I'm going on.

Park    Growth   Attendance in Millions
MK      0.3         20.45
Epcot   4.2        12.2
AK      15.3       12.5
HS     -0.5        10.7

AK is on par with Epcot after the addition of Pandora. It grew a large 15% over 2016 which is to be expected. Did they see similar growth in 2018? Or are they going to be floating close to Epcot numbers like they did in 2017?

Hollywood Studios has an obvious excuse.

I expect Animal Kingdom to have grown even further. They have had Pandora for over a year at that point and it’s still the most popular ride right now. Epcot other than festivals has nothing new. Epcot numbers stay steady because of that.

 

[YesterDark]

The villains idea is good in concept but again I’m not sure it’s feasible long term. I’d love to see more villains in the existing parks though. If Disney does build another park I think they will go with a boutique park sort of like a Discovery Bay concept rather than full blown new park.

Would it impact vacation habits though? Guests only have so many vacation days. They now would be taking away days from the existing parks and/or other areas like Disney Springs.

Animal Kingdom made a huge jump with Pandora in 2017 and it was only open for half the year. I’m really interested in 2018 numbers. Epcot is suffering severely. If it didn’t have the festivals it would be without a doubt the least attended park right now.

The Hollywood theming if your entrance to those different worlds. They aren’t removing that anytime soon as they keep adding it. The new entrances and bus stops are all themed that way.

Long term feasibility is a good discussion to have and I probably agree, I'm just throwing out an idea. More likely a new fully realized park will have multiple lands and themes to to. I have no idea what that would be though. I'm not trying to be creative here. It's a better question for another thread though.

Regarding vacation habits, you already have Disney promoting hopper tickets with all packages, and you see them creating better transportation options. I suspect the only way they build a 5th gate is if they see a drop in attendance and a rise in attendance to Universal. So a 5th gate will probably have better transportation so you have people park hopping easier and more often. You already have packages that give cheap ticket options once you hit the 5 day threshold. I think they'll just want to keep people on property at all costs. You'd need marketing data to see if a 5th gate would get people to come down longer. What is the average stay? 4 days? 5 days? I see a lot of 4-5 day promotions. Why not make it 6 days? People with better data have better answers. I'm just speculating.

I agree on 18 numbers. I can't wait to see them. Want to make a bet on them?

On the theming, I know. I think it's a mistake. In any case, working on that context, I would retheme Sunset at the very least if that portion of the park receives a new land. Maybe part of Echo lake too.

 

[The Pho]

I could only find hard data for 2017, but if you can show me 2018 data I'd love to see it. So this is what I'm going on.

Park    Growth   Attendance in Millions
MK      0.3         20.45
Epcot   4.2        12.2
AK      15.3       12.5
HS     -0.5        10.7

AK is on par with Epcot after the addition of Pandora. It grew a large 15% over 2016 which is to be expected. Did they see similar growth in 2018? Or are they going to be floating close to Epcot numbers like they did in 2017?

Hollywood Studios has an obvious excuse.

Those numbers show that Animal has overtaken Epcot.
I have nothing I can show you, but I see the daily numbers semi often. Animal is still growing and Epcot has stagnated. Studios has risen. And with Star Wars I’m expecting Magic, Animal, and Studios to all see big boosts soon. Outside of festivals, Epcot has struggled this year.

 

[rteetz]

What is the average stay? 4 days? 5 days? I see a lot of 4-5 day promotions. Why not make it 6 days? People with better data have better answers. I'm just speculating.

I obviously don’t have the data but in the US people have limited vacation days so my guess is due to costs and vacation time that’s why you are 4-5 days as the promotions. You could have 6 day promotions but people might not be able to take that much vacation time.

 

[sachilles]

So you get to play Iger for a day.
You see AK attendance grow with the addition of a new land. Do you double down on that park in hopes of more gains, or do try to invest in another park to prop that park up some?

What I don't think they fully know yet is whether the increase at AK is in part to the construction at DHS. When Star Wars is online, I'll be curious to see if AK takes a hit on attendance. That will tell a lot about what is going on. I think if AK maintains, and DHS increases with star wars(that is a given in my mind), then I think you see big investment in a project for Epcot to see if it can grow as well.

I think that AK will stay steady, DHS will grow. I think they'll then do something major at Epcot.

So in theory, if a 5th gate were to happen, where would the armchair imagineers place it? Location alone could make a huge difference in it's success. Do you put it right next to MK, on the Grand floridian side, and have a middle courtyard like disneyland and DCA, allowing for many common services? Maybe put it in close proximity to Epcot and DHS to make a 3 park mega hub?

Many things to consider on this. It's all very cool to think about. However I think any CEO to promote it is taking huge career risk, I'm not sure that environment exists anymore.

 

[YesterDark]

Those numbers show that Animal has overtaken Epcot.
I have nothing I can show you, but I see the daily numbers semi often. Animal is still growing and Epcot has stagnated. Studios has risen. And with Star Wars I’m expecting Magic, Animal, and Studios to all see big boosts soon. Outside of festivals, Epcot has struggled this year.

First those number show AK tied with Epcot in all intents and purposes which was why I made the comment that AK is on par with Epcot. I suspect your predictions will be correct. I can't wait for 18 numbers.

 

[rteetz]

I think that AK will stay steady, DHS will grow. I think they'll then do something major at Epcot.

So in theory, if a 5th gate were to happen, where would the armchair imagineers place it? Location alone could make a huge difference in it's success. Do you put it right next to MK, on the Grand floridian side, and have a middle courtyard like disneyland and DCA, allowing for many common services? Maybe put it in close proximity to Epcot and DHS to make a 3 park mega hub?

I agree. I think AK stays steady, DHS increase and Epcot is the question. Certainly probably some boost with already announced additions but it still needs more.

Disney has plenty of space and the better bet is probably on the AK end of property I think. Gives more people to that end. Not sure there is much space around Epcot for another park there. I don’t see it going by MK. That’s the king of Disney parks and they want that to be on its own and special.

 

[YesterDark]

I obviously don’t have the data but in the US people have limited vacation days so my guess is due to costs and vacation time that’s why you are 4-5 days as the promotions. You could have 6 day promotions but people might not be able to take that much vacation time.

I think it's more of a cost issue and not a vacation day issue. Most americans (looking at some statistics) get more than 2 weeks paid leave on average.

 

[STLstone]

So you get to play Iger for a day.
You see AK attendance grow with the addition of a new land. Do you double down on that park in hopes of more gains, or do try to invest in another park to prop that park up some?

What I don't think they fully know yet is whether the increase at AK is in part to the construction at DHS. When Star Wars is online, I'll be curious to see if AK takes a hit on attendance. That will tell a lot about what is going on. I think if AK maintains, and DHS increases with star wars(that is a given in my mind), then I think you see big investment in a project for Epcot to see if it can grow as well.

I think that AK will stay steady, DHS will grow. I think they'll then do something major at Epcot.

So in theory, if a 5th gate were to happen, where would the armchair imagineers place it? Location alone could make a huge difference in it's success. Do you put it right next to MK, on the Grand floridian side, and have a middle courtyard like disneyland and DCA, allowing for many common services? Maybe put it in close proximity to Epcot and DHS to make a 3 park mega hub?

Many things to consider on this. It's all very cool to think about. However I think any CEO to promote it is taking huge career risk, I'm not sure that environment exists anymore.

Put it anywhere and build gondolas to it... IF the current gondolas turn out to be a success.

 

[sachilles]

With a new park, would inevitably come new park side resort hotels. Certainly the animal kingdom area could support that all and perhaps another resort area akin to the boardwalk or disney springs(smaller version).

 

[YesterDark]

So you get to play Iger for a day.
You see AK attendance grow with the addition of a new land. Do you double down on that park in hopes of more gains, or do try to invest in another park to prop that park up some?

What I don't think they fully know yet is whether the increase at AK is in part to the construction at DHS. When Star Wars is online, I'll be curious to see if AK takes a hit on attendance. That will tell a lot about what is going on. I think if AK maintains, and DHS increases with star wars(that is a given in my mind), then I think you see big investment in a project for Epcot to see if it can grow as well.

I think that AK will stay steady, DHS will grow. I think they'll then do something major at Epcot.

So in theory, if a 5th gate were to happen, where would the armchair imagineers place it? Location alone could make a huge difference in it's success. Do you put it right next to MK, on the Grand floridian side, and have a middle courtyard like disneyland and DCA, allowing for many common services? Maybe put it in close proximity to Epcot and DHS to make a 3 park mega hub?

Many things to consider on this. It's all very cool to think about. However I think any CEO to promote it is taking huge career risk, I'm not sure that environment exists anymore.

Very good questions. The construction at HS probably had a big influence of attendance elsewhere.