I think it's actually pretty predictable overall. Obviously there could be some variables but by the time we know what they are, they will have likely changed. Such is the nature of stocks and timeshares. Anyone planning to sell has to look at the info and make a decision. Given that OKW and SSR are similar in many ways other than the ending date, the resale hx is a large piece of info. We should know more soon how they plan to proceed and how much it will truly cost. But I think it's a certainty that there will not be a $15 per point price different between an OKW 2057 and 2042 contract that's otherwise the same. I know of one resort system that has RTU that have 5 different ending dates, one is this year. While there are many differences, there are some similarities as well. The prices I've seen certainly have not accurately reflected the difference in ending date. The price difference has not been as large as the difference in time left/ending date until very late in the course. I also know of many resorts where there are fixed weeks and points contracts and fixed weeks that can be converted to points contracts. I also know of one resort that is RTU in MX that has two different ending dates, 12 years apart. It also has several different types of memberships, some you can borrow ahead from the last year forward and some that are every other year. I also know many that are EOY including developer sales. In every case I’m aware of, my premise that you will not make up the difference has held true. Obviously for DVC that will change at some point as the first contract nears the end of it’s life and the others have 15 years to go. I think the bottom line is we don't know what will happen but we know the 2057 OKW contracts won't likely be worth $15 a point more anytime soon.
Define "soon"? If you mean absolutely immediately...I tend to agree (see my previous post in this thread). If you mean beyond 5-7 years....I think, again, that's a tough call to make unless you're clairvoyant...largely because we know so little about WHAT the factors are differentiating OKW And SSR and, more importantly, the DEGREE which each effects the differentiation. We also know little about Disney's ROFR "strategy" in relation to those two resorts going forward.
True of course but again, many, myself included, will need to make assumptions in this area. And I think it’s a safe bet they won’t let things go through for 2042 resorts at a bargain basement price while protecting the longer contracts. Their goal with ROFR isn’t mainly price but to drive sales to retail.
While it's GOAL isn't about keeping prices afloat, that's it's general outcome, in relation to resale. While Disney's goal is relevant, we don't know what it's going to be in relation to 2042 OKW (or 2057 OKW). Is it going to be to try to buy up all the 2042 points it can to resell them (meaning ROFR price point actually goes UP, at least in the short term)? Is it going to be to LOWER ROFR on those contracts, so they sell to new owners and Disney can offer the extensions to new owners (yeah, I know, I find that one doubtful too, but it's been mentioned)? Is the ROFR on 2057 contracts, if they try to sell them at $104 per point, going to jump significantly? You'd assume Disney is going to stop selling 2042 contracts altogether (morphing any 2042's they get into 2057), so.....what will that mean? We just don't know. And yes, you're going tohave to make some assumptions and try to "guess" to make a decision. Of course, the guess is going to be based on pretty much nothing related to DVC (you can use other timeshares as models, but they're not 1-1, obviously) because nothing like this has happend before....which stinks. I feel bad for those of you that have to guess, because you're going to be the guinea pigs for future extensions (assuming there are any).
Actually I wouldn’t agree totally. I am not saying that it’s mainly an investment in qualify of life, but that is is also, and in many ways, mainly, a financial investment. If not, why own at all. I’ve owned over 40 timeshare weeks/contracts and I’ve made money on all the ones I sold except one. And on that one I broke even and got 5 or 6 great trades out of it all of which were up trades. Frankly, I wouldn’t buy a timeshare unless I thought it made financial sense. And I don’t mean this crazy notion some have of comparing to rack rates for something they’d never pay cash for such as many do with DVC. Interesting of my last 3 timeshares purchases, 2 were retail and the only ones I’ve ever bought from a developer directly. But I had very specific reasons to do so that went beyond just the immediate purchase. One was 100 AKV points (4*25) and the other a Marriott week but I was also able to convert TWO resale Marriott weeks to Marriott rewards ellibible weeks as part of the deal, else I would have walked away. It was also preconstruction and is now $6000 higher than it was then.
Why own at all?
To use them, Dean. And that's my point. Buy them primarily for USE, not with an eye on the cash at the end of the rainbow.
I know YOU view them as a financial investment with a goal to make a financial profit. Bully for you. Personally, I don't think it's a good outlook...but I don't need to since I'm not the one spending your money. I think that "bent" is true for most people. I'm not saying there isn't money to be made....if you're up for educating yourself, keeping your finger on the pulse of the industry, etc. I'm saying the "safest" outlook for most is to view it as a vacation plan first...with any proceeds coming from later sale as a "happy bonus". So long as you're "outpacing" opportunity costs with savings on your vacation costs....you're all set.
And can you explain the "crazy notion" you're talking about. I'm assuming you mean using rack rates on DVC rooms in your comparison (something I don't think many would pay for), rather than comparing to rack rates on standard deluxe hotel rooms (something I think many people do, in fact, pay). If your argument is that "room discounts" should be more of a factor in the figuring, I don't disagree. But when projecting out something over 50 years, it's tough, without that mentioned clairvoyance, to predict what discounts will be available.