Would the DDP have been better? - A Quick numbers analysis

So...

First, I have to apologize that I can't count. Final tally is 17 snack credits used, not 14, and something is wrong with my math. This is what I get for not doing it in a spreadsheet...If I have time I'll go back and edit and find my errors.

The Averages

Average QS Meal Spend: $12.27
Average Snack Spend: $5.15
Average TS Spend: $28.04

Average Nightly DDP Spend: $95.21

Average Daily OOP Spend: $46.30, with $15.86 of that on alcohol

Totals:

DDP Cost: $768 (6*2*64)

Total QS Spend: $147.19
Total Snack Spend: $122.52 (Extrapolating out to assume the remaining 7 snack credits were used with an average cost of $5 (ideal))
Total TS Spend: $336.57

Total "DDP" Spend: 606.28

Total DDP "Loss": $161.72

Thoughts:

I may come back and do more math adding in if we had gotten sodas/desserts at TS to see if that nudges towards a closer balance, but in general, the plan would have been a big enough hit this trip I wouldn't have used it.

I suspect this is the case more often than not, and that the list price is very difficult for me to spend given the tendency towards water and not always wanting dessert.

What I found interesting (but not surprising) is that most of our QS meals included drinks, and still only had an average cost of $12 - which in my opinion makes the QS dining plan virtually impossible (take out $10 for snacks and you still need to be getting QS meals of $15+, which didn't seem to be an option around the parks).

I expected the Table Service meals to make up for this deficit, but with a $10 quick service, $10 in snacks, you're still looking at at least $40 per meal. I am curious how that would have played out if we got dessert everywhere...but then we would just have been eating it because it was included, not because we wanted or needed it.

Deluxe Thoughts:

Given these numbers, the Deluxe plan would be very easy to get your money's worth on (which is promising for my April trip - 3 nights DxDP - I'll come back and do another numbers summary if people want, maybe write it up with some pictures even?). A TS was around $25-30, often with us skipping soda and/or dessert. For the Deluxe it's 3 credits that are about $30-$35 each, and they include an appetizer. I would absolutely have gotten some appetizers (more likely than dessert) and given this math an app could make the plan break even pretty easily, as they are more than the desserts.

Adult Beverages/Drinkers on the Dining Plan:

We typically only drink with meals, but we do tend to prefer cocktails or beer over soda. We probably spent about $9/TS credit on alcohol throughout the trip, although it was only 8 drinks between us for the 6 nights. These are probably some of the meals we would have drank a soda at on the DDP, which would probably have been slightly less enjoyable (I like my glow cubes!).

I don't think alcohol will make or break the dining plan, but if you're likely to pick that over soda at your TS restaurants (or drink some before and just have water with the meal) don't factor in the cost of a soda.

Buffets/Fixed Price Menus:

Had we done the DDP I probably would have put more of these into the plan, as they help guarantee that you break even. 1-2 $40 buffets would have pulled up that TS value, but they still would not have made up the $160 deficit.

Signatures on the DDP:

I am more inclined to bypass signatures when you do the DDP, and would recommend just paying for them, even though they can be pricey. Why? Because the value of our dining credit was pulled down by our desire to add alcohol to our fancy meal. So where we were already paying "double" for our soda, we didn't want our soda, so that's $6 knocked off the credit. And while the food is fabulous (I'm not saying skip these places), the prices aren't 3x those of the normal restaurants, so they don't make up for the loss of the soda and the double credit cost. Additionally, these places are where from what I've seen there are great sides or additions that don't count on the DDP (Truffle Fries, etc) which may or may not be able to be swapped for dessert, so it's easier to just plan to pay for these on trips where you don't have the plan in my opinion.

Thoughts on the Money Mindset:

Definitely grimaced at prices more while there, even though I'd done the math and knew what prices to expect. In the future I'll probably do what others have mentioned and throw a ton of money on gift cards (close to the DDP cost) so that I stop grimacing at the prices. While on the DDP there were times that we just split a QS because we weren't that hungry due to our other meals, but this time we did split a QS once or twice because I just didn't want to think about getting another $12 hot dog or $3 drink.
 
This was great! Well done. We have never got the DDP to work out for us. We have AP and DVC so get discounts on some places. The only time we get it to work is when we do a spilt stay between DVC resorts. We do 2 nights first get the DDP get the refillable mug we would buy anyway and it is good for the whole stay. We book two good meals like 1900 park fair, BOG etc. Then don't have the plan for the rest of the stay.

We also share sides, don't always have desserts etc. We also dine off property. Thanks so much for your interesting insight!
 
So...

First, I have to apologize that I can't count. Final tally is 17 snack credits used, not 14, and something is wrong with my math. This is what I get for not doing it in a spreadsheet...If I have time I'll go back and edit and find my errors.

The Averages

Average QS Meal Spend: $12.27
Average Snack Spend: $5.15
Average TS Spend: $28.04

Average Nightly DDP Spend: $95.21

Average Daily OOP Spend: $46.30, with $15.86 of that on alcohol

Totals:

DDP Cost: $768 (6*2*64)

Total QS Spend: $147.19
Total Snack Spend: $122.52 (Extrapolating out to assume the remaining 7 snack credits were used with an average cost of $5 (ideal))
Total TS Spend: $336.57

Total "DDP" Spend: 606.28

Total DDP "Loss": $161.72

Thoughts:

I may come back and do more math adding in if we had gotten sodas/desserts at TS to see if that nudges towards a closer balance, but in general, the plan would have been a big enough hit this trip I wouldn't have used it.

I suspect this is the case more often than not, and that the list price is very difficult for me to spend given the tendency towards water and not always wanting dessert.

What I found interesting (but not surprising) is that most of our QS meals included drinks, and still only had an average cost of $12 - which in my opinion makes the QS dining plan virtually impossible (take out $10 for snacks and you still need to be getting QS meals of $15+, which didn't seem to be an option around the parks).

I expected the Table Service meals to make up for this deficit, but with a $10 quick service, $10 in snacks, you're still looking at at least $40 per meal. I am curious how that would have played out if we got dessert everywhere...but then we would just have been eating it because it was included, not because we wanted or needed it.

Deluxe Thoughts:

Given these numbers, the Deluxe plan would be very easy to get your money's worth on (which is promising for my April trip - 3 nights DxDP - I'll come back and do another numbers summary if people want, maybe write it up with some pictures even?). A TS was around $25-30, often with us skipping soda and/or dessert. For the Deluxe it's 3 credits that are about $30-$35 each, and they include an appetizer. I would absolutely have gotten some appetizers (more likely than dessert) and given this math an app could make the plan break even pretty easily, as they are more than the desserts.

Adult Beverages/Drinkers on the Dining Plan:

We typically only drink with meals, but we do tend to prefer cocktails or beer over soda. We probably spent about $9/TS credit on alcohol throughout the trip, although it was only 8 drinks between us for the 6 nights. These are probably some of the meals we would have drank a soda at on the DDP, which would probably have been slightly less enjoyable (I like my glow cubes!).

I don't think alcohol will make or break the dining plan, but if you're likely to pick that over soda at your TS restaurants (or drink some before and just have water with the meal) don't factor in the cost of a soda.

Buffets/Fixed Price Menus:

Had we done the DDP I probably would have put more of these into the plan, as they help guarantee that you break even. 1-2 $40 buffets would have pulled up that TS value, but they still would not have made up the $160 deficit.

Signatures on the DDP:

I am more inclined to bypass signatures when you do the DDP, and would recommend just paying for them, even though they can be pricey. Why? Because the value of our dining credit was pulled down by our desire to add alcohol to our fancy meal. So where we were already paying "double" for our soda, we didn't want our soda, so that's $6 knocked off the credit. And while the food is fabulous (I'm not saying skip these places), the prices aren't 3x those of the normal restaurants, so they don't make up for the loss of the soda and the double credit cost. Additionally, these places are where from what I've seen there are great sides or additions that don't count on the DDP (Truffle Fries, etc) which may or may not be able to be swapped for dessert, so it's easier to just plan to pay for these on trips where you don't have the plan in my opinion.

Thoughts on the Money Mindset:

Definitely grimaced at prices more while there, even though I'd done the math and knew what prices to expect. In the future I'll probably do what others have mentioned and throw a ton of money on gift cards (close to the DDP cost) so that I stop grimacing at the prices. While on the DDP there were times that we just split a QS because we weren't that hungry due to our other meals, but this time we did split a QS once or twice because I just didn't want to think about getting another $12 hot dog or $3 drink.
Thank you for this! I have been number crunching and found out that we save about 400 buy paying OOP. It also helped that when we go in June one of our meals are free. Also found out we are QS family and not TS. Even without the free meal we will save at least 200.
 
In the future I'll probably do what others have mentioned and throw a ton of money on gift cards (close to the DDP cost)

Thank you so much for the breakdowns and doing this whole thread. I know what you mean about grimacing at the prices, try WDW with two hungry teenagers and a chubby hubby! I LOVE this idea of doing the allotted meal money on Disney gift cards, thanks, thanks, thanks!
 
We've done the free dining a couple of times and I've done the math. It's better for us to eat out of pocket and get a room discount. We found it to be too much food based on the way we like to eat. Also, we really enjoy mostly table services and signature dinning that takes two credits. Even with DxDP, it's cheaper to pay out of pocket.

Thanks for the additional math and coming to a similar conclusion. I'm sure it would be different if we had kids but for two adults not so much.
 
DDP: Would have been 1 TS for $14.50, with $13 OOP (Banana Split and tip, assuming Fries could count as dessert)

The fries would not count as dessert, but the banana split would have.

This is where the estimating has to come in. Assuming that the second dessert could have been swapped for the fries, I will assume that the DDP would have paid for all of the food, just not the alcohol.

I highly doubt they would give you truffle fries in place of a dessert. The "swap dessert for something else" is usually just a cup of soup, small salad, or an extra veggie, and the restaurant gets to decide what they will do, not the customer.
 
The fries would not count as dessert, but the banana split would have.



I highly doubt they would give you truffle fries in place of a dessert. The "swap dessert for something else" is usually just a cup of soup, small salad, or an extra veggie, and the restaurant gets to decide what they will do, not the customer.

Good points, and understood. I figured the banana split might fall under multi-person so I was trying to be cautious with the math, and figured the $3 fries wouldn't impact the math too much as they were basically one more soda. Those were mostly just fudges to make the math for the comparison easier. With your approach the two items oop would essentially swap, ending up with close to the same math.

I was mostly curious "how close" we actually eat to the plan for what cost difference (as we typically balance TS and QS throughout the trip), and how much "having the plan" might have altered our style (drinking more soda, more desserts, passing on the truffle fries, etc).
 
Thank you for doing the math!! I have done this for our upcoming trip using menu's also... and we pretty much would only break even if we ordered "a lot" of food with each meal which knowing how we do things we would not.

The other thing I found when I was putting numbers to everything was if I tried to get as much out of the dining plan as I could our total bill would be much greater... thus increasing the tip.

And being that we are going for our DD 21st bday along with her 21 year old boyfriend I know that we will be having more alcohol based beverages along with water at each meal as opposed to soda's.

What I liked about your math and plan here is you ordered basically what you wanted. I will admit I am fearful of sticker shock with menu items and possibly changing my mind so I like the idea of the gift card thing... that is a really good idea! We are going during a non festival time (no food and wine, flower and garden, festival of the arts, holidays...etc.! so at least there won't be any snacks to tempt us in Epcot at food booths!! lol)
 
I'm reading all this on my phone so it's a bit finicky and I can't post the URL but there is a calculator if you'll Google Disney Dining Plan calculator and it was shockingly accurate when I used it versus going through meal by meal on the menus and putting in everything that our family would get. For us we do save a little bit but we use the quick service plan. I know not everyone does but with two young kids that are going to sit through a long meal at works great for us. My husband also really likes the convenience of having it prepaid and not having to worry about it
 
I'm reading all this on my phone so it's a bit finicky and I can't post the URL but there is a calculator if you'll Google Disney Dining Plan calculator and it was shockingly accurate when I used it versus going through meal by meal on the menus and putting in everything that our family would get. For us we do save a little bit but we use the quick service plan. I know not everyone does but with two young kids that are going to sit through a long meal at works great for us. My husband also really likes the convenience of having it prepaid and not having to worry about it

I have used the calculator you are talking about many times. My issue with the theoretical is that sitting at home months out I will think "of course I will want dessert and steak everywhere", but actually going I find that isn't true. This trip was interesting to see that even though I can make the math look good before the trip, it isn't always realistic.

Kids can play a huge part in getting value in, especially if you have a big eater or lots of character meals, as 2 adults we didn't have that perk to sway the value.
 
Thanks for this! I have used the online calculator and it seems pretty clear that the DDP would be a loss for us, but gosh the lure of having it all paid for is strong! However, we're not planning any signatures and I know we will split some QS lunches, so math must prevail!
 

Definitely grimaced at prices more while there, even though I'd done the math and knew what prices to expect. In the future I'll probably do what others have mentioned and throw a ton of money on gift cards (close to the DDP cost) so that I stop grimacing at the prices. While on the DDP there were times that we just split a QS because we weren't that hungry due to our other meals, but this time we did split a QS once or twice because I just didn't want to think about getting another $12 hot dog or $3 drink.

Yep, exactly this! It's one reason I love those "sampler" things they have been offering at the food and wine festival. You basically pre-buy coupons for use at the kiosks. Of course I have my spreadsheet of "good uses" of them and would never dare go off-spreadsheet but I feel much better spending a "coupon" for a $12 tiny cocktail than I do paying "real money" for it. (Plus the coupons have an average cost of like $7something, still way too much for a tiny cocktail. But better than $12!)

Thanks for breaking this down. I love Disney math and have a running tally of my TIW savings going... it's paid for if you count things I also could have gotten a discount with my AP on. If you exclude those I'm about $20 in savings away from break even and still have two trips to go this year.
 
Thanks for the breakdown! I did the math for our family of four (2 adults, 2 children), and we would come out ahead if we did a bunch of character meals with our TS credit, basically because one kid's character meal can equal the daily cost of the whole kid's plan so then their QS meal and snacks are basically free. But once they're Disney adults we're way better off paying OOP.
 
I have given up on the DDP. IT is just to much calculating , ordering the most expensive even if you don't want it and then the tip increases in price..etc WE just average what we are going to spend and...wait for it.... use CASH! I know right who knew? My 86yo mother is always with us and she has not moved into the 21 century and still pays cash and now I'm crossing over to the dark side as well. WE drove down and after all the stories on CC skimmers etc I even pay cash at the gas station.

Since we are 5 adults and were staying for 11 nights over Xmas I "invested" in a AP. Chose the restaurants that had 20% off, got the extra 5% off our room, used the 20% on shopping and came out saving 300 after the AP extra cost. Well, since I had an AP we went again in March, room only did one park and saved on our room and dining again.

IF we would have been 5 alcohol drinkers I would have considered TIW.

HOWEVER, IMHO the bottom line is that dining at WDW is just over the top with prices especially for what you get. On our second trip, the 5 of us ate at boma; with AP discount and tip it was $215. The five of us ate at Boathouse (with 2 alcohol drinks), AP discount of 10%, and with tip it was $179 and a much better meal. WE ate most at DTD, it's just better quality, srvice and price.
 
Thanks for the breakdown! I did the math for our family of four (2 adults, 2 children), and we would come out ahead if we did a bunch of character meals with our TS credit, basically because one kid's character meal can equal the daily cost of the whole kid's plan so then their QS meal and snacks are basically free. But once they're Disney adults we're way better off paying OOP.
I agree with this! It is different if you add in kids and character meals. With 3 kids we definitely save money with the DDP! Once my kids are Disney Adults paying OOP might save us more, but 2 of my 3 kids are boys. So during the teenage years we may need to eat at Buffets to fill them up.:teeth: Nice work on all of your calculations I am sure it will help people!
 
I am currently planning a trip to Disney for this October/November. We are traveling with 5 little ones (6, 5, 3, 2, and a 3 month old). This will be our 6th trip in 10 years. We have stayed off site, on site, and at Shades of Green. The DDP is always a headache in trying to figure out if it's worth it or not for us. We have had the DDP before, we have also used Shades of Green's dining options (breakfast only), and we have also packed our bags full of premade sandwiches and snacks before as well. After looking at the menus of some of the normal quick service places that we normally go to when we do purchase out of pocket, it looks like that we would save about $20 for each adult by purchasing out of pocket (because we normally would not do a sit down meal, with the exception of the once or twice per trip when paying out of pocket). For the children, it looks like the DDP would save us about $5 per child (accounting for 2 snacks per day-there's no way that I'm not going to be able to not buy the occasional popcorn or icecream for the kids). Now, keep in mind this is accounting for us not purchasing groceries and premaking meals to bring into the parks. When we did, we found it difficult to find places to sit down to eat, as most of the restaurants were usually full with paying patrons. We did though, but had to eat during off peak times and at quick serve places which was ok. By doing this, we found ourselves pretty much eating only sandwiches and snacks and we would fit 1 or 2 sit downs or quick serve meals or venture out to a pizza place or Olive Garden off site, out of pocket just because we were getting sick of sandwiches. We also found that the kids desperately needed that break of sitting down and eating and being out of the sun after being on the go most of the day. While on the DDP, of course we would fit more table service into our schedule since it's already paid for with the DDP, whereas we normally would not. Taking this into account, we would come very close to breaking even or saving some money on the DDP depending on how expensive the restaurant is. We would also take leftovers back to our room. I also want our children to have experiences and make memories with them by doing things that we normally would not do (like eating at really good or themed restaurants). We have the Disney Visa Platinum card for the Disney Rewards, so it's not really costing us any money since our Disney Rewards are enough to pay for the rooms and the DDP for all of us. So, if we paid OOP we would save approximately $30-$40 total overall per day (depending on only 1 snack or 2, and quick serve only vs only 1 or 2 sit down meals). Add that up for a 4 day hopper pass and it comes out to $120-$160 in savings with paying out of pocket for the week. Just this morning a CM at reservations told me that for the timeframe that we are looking at going, to add the DDP is $27 per child and $72 per adult, per day. This is 1 quick serve meal, 1 table sit down meal, and 2 snacks. For me, I can justify the DDP for our situation. However, if it were just my wife and I going, we probably would not add the DDP.
 
I am currently planning a trip to Disney for this October/November. We are traveling with 5 little ones (6, 5, 3, 2, and a 3 month old). This will be our 6th trip in 10 years. We have stayed off site, on site, and at Shades of Green. The DDP is always a headache in trying to figure out if it's worth it or not for us. We have had the DDP before, we have also used Shades of Green's dining options (breakfast only), and we have also packed our bags full of premade sandwiches and snacks before as well. After looking at the menus of some of the normal quick service places that we normally go to when we do purchase out of pocket, it looks like that we would save about $20 for each adult by purchasing out of pocket (because we normally would not do a sit down meal, with the exception of the once or twice per trip when paying out of pocket). For the children, it looks like the DDP would save us about $5 per child (accounting for 2 snacks per day-there's no way that I'm not going to be able to not buy the occasional popcorn or icecream for the kids). Now, keep in mind this is accounting for us not purchasing groceries and premaking meals to bring into the parks. When we did, we found it difficult to find places to sit down to eat, as most of the restaurants were usually full with paying patrons. We did though, but had to eat during off peak times and at quick serve places which was ok. By doing this, we found ourselves pretty much eating only sandwiches and snacks and we would fit 1 or 2 sit downs or quick serve meals or venture out to a pizza place or Olive Garden off site, out of pocket just because we were getting sick of sandwiches. We also found that the kids desperately needed that break of sitting down and eating and being out of the sun after being on the go most of the day. While on the DDP, of course we would fit more table service into our schedule since it's already paid for with the DDP, whereas we normally would not. Taking this into account, we would come very close to breaking even or saving some money on the DDP depending on how expensive the restaurant is. We would also take leftovers back to our room. I also want our children to have experiences and make memories with them by doing things that we normally would not do (like eating at really good or themed restaurants). We have the Disney Visa Platinum card for the Disney Rewards, so it's not really costing us any money since our Disney Rewards are enough to pay for the rooms and the DDP for all of us. So, if we paid OOP we would save approximately $30-$40 total overall per day (depending on only 1 snack or 2, and quick serve only vs only 1 or 2 sit down meals). Add that up for a 4 day hopper pass and it comes out to $120-$160 in savings with paying out of pocket for the week. Just this morning a CM at reservations told me that for the timeframe that we are looking at going, to add the DDP is $27 per child and $72 per adult, per day. This is 1 quick serve meal, 1 table sit down meal, and 2 snacks. For me, I can justify the DDP for our situation. However, if it were just my wife and I going, we probably would not add the DDP.

So much of the decision is circumstance, eating style, and restaurant choice.

I have another thread going where based on my plans it is hard to lose out on the deluxe dining plan, even mostly getting entrees.

https://www.disboards.com/threads/3-nights-dxdp-good-for-the-tummy-wallet-or-both-all-the-math.3595932

Some day I will write something that can optimize and run all the possible scenarios based on the group make-up and eating style...
 

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