Who has the best crowd calendar?

[Bettie]

Ha ha! This is my question of the day.

I am planning a trip for late January 2013 and comparing park recommendations for several days that vary wildly between TP and Easy. One day Easy has Epcot being the most recommended park, which TP gives it a 6.9 and says avoid. The same day, Easy has MK as an avoid while TP gives it a best park. Similar disagreements are occurring on several of my planned days.

I haven't ever experienced this where the recommendations are so divergent for so many days of the trip, so I am a bit at a loss as to what to do with my plans!

 

[NHKristy76]

Bettie, I'd go with Easy! Josh seems to really have a handle on it!

Enjoy your trip!

 

[KidsInDisney]

I don't know what crowd calendar is most accurate as I've never compared, but based on the science involved in the Touring Plans calendar, I would expect it to be the most accurate. When it comes to solid science, there is really no comparison, Touring Plans is the best and I plan to use it on future trips. I believe it to be a good investment.

That said, most of us have little understanding of the cold statistics involved (I've taken several graduate stats classes and have no idea how they do this), and prefer a more obvious human touch when making these rather important decisions. This is where Easywdw excels. I love reading his explanations for park recommendations and really enjoy the irreverence of the blog. His care and logic probably make for very good predictions.

I vote for both, they do two different things. There are some differences between them for my trip in January, so to decide which to use I have a very illogical and unscientific plan: Ask my 6-year-old where she wants to go that day.

 

[Porphyro]

Of course we do that. We have many dozens of Lines users in every park, every day, and they submit anywhere from several hundred to maybe 1,500 wait times every day, from key attractions. They also include actual wait times. And we try to have paid staff in the parks when crowds are lower.

I get an email every day that shows the crowd level for yesterday for each park and for WDW as a whole. And we have a spreadsheet dedicated to tracking how well we do against every other crowd calendar available.

I'd be comfortable posting that comparison here. It uses wait times for the data. The mods might want to weigh in on that, though.

The other calendars use "crowd feel", so you have to ask how you measure something like that in a way that everyone agrees on, and that doesn't obviously contradict the lines you see at the parks. For example, what's the difference in "feel" between a 7 and an 8? Who decides? How is it measured after the fact, so you know whether it was right? And can a park have a feel of "8" if its longest line is 20 minutes?

Has anyone ever seen that explanation from the other calendars? I admit that I haven't looked that closely for them. But they may be there.

Len

Full disclosure...Math and Statistics major currently doing statistical modeling for a small university.

The problem with what you said is that your lines app creates a self-reporting pool. By default, most of your users are going to be more informed about touring strategy - after all, they are on your site - and hence the data points will be highly slanted.

I also question the sample size. You mention several hundred to 1500 data points per day per ride. For a park that is open many many hours each day, that seems to be small. And that assumes that everyone is using the app correctly; not everyone is going to report. Your app then falls back to your employees walking through the parks.

But here's the real test. On Sunday August 5th, you guys have DHS listed as the park to avoid, while Josh has it as the best choice. I've been to the Studios on a day to avoid (we had no choice) and I've been there on a great day. I know the difference. The proof will be in the pudding.

But here's the thing: getting there at rope drop and knowing what order to ride negates crowd calendars nearly every time. So let me ask, and I honestly don't know, do your touring plans currently take the new Dumbo fastpass system, the addition of Merida, and the moving Rapunzel with the rest of the princesses into account?

Also, you mention that you compare your calendar against other calendars based upon ride wait time? But most other calendars don't make those claims. They say that based on historical trends, this park will be the lightest and that if you follow this strategy you can be more or less done with the big ticket items by lunch. And according to the poll, people seem to love that approach.

 

[Porphyro]

Let me clarify, because my thoughts have become clearer on the subject.

TP sells two products. The lines application and customized touring plans. And that is the problem. Telling people "Here is an optimized touringplan" and then "tell me your wait times so I can build estimates" is self defeating. To really build an accurate picture of park wait times, you need truly random data. But since people are following a touring plan, they are already optimized. You are feeding optimized data into your optimizer.

 

[TunaSled]

Thank you guys for this thread and all your opinions. I found my new calendar, easywdw.com. It agrees perfectly with our dates Good news for me and you guys seem to trust it

 

[lentesta]

Let me clarify, because my thoughts have become clearer on the subject.

TP sells two products. The lines application and customized touring plans. And that is the problem. Telling people "Here is an optimized touringplan" and then "tell me your wait times so I can build estimates" is self defeating. To really build an accurate picture of park wait times, you need truly random data. But since people are following a touring plan, they are already optimized. You are feeding optimized data into your optimizer.

Awesome questions.

A quick check of the Lines app will show that people are walking by attractions at times different than we suggest in the plans. For example, while our touring plans suggest visiting Space Mountain first thing in the morning, users submitted wait times after 8 pm on Sunday. Let me know if you need a subscription to see these data - happy to provide one.

Also, the paid staff visit every attraction every 20-30 minutes (Epcot takes longer) when they're in the parks. I assume that having a complete set of attraction data every 30 minutes is better than random samples throughout the day.

I also question the sample size. You mention several hundred to 1500 data points per day per ride. For a park that is open many many hours each day, that seems to be small.

There have been days in the past for which we didn't get enough data to make a determination about crowd levels. And we sometimes don't get enough data at individual attractions to judge their crowd levels. Removing those data from the samples, the general results still hold.

I'll also point out that if we can't get enough data with an app, dozens of users and paid staff, single-person operations are going to find it even more difficult to collect data. I don't think that's a controversial statement.

Also, you mention that you compare your calendar against other calendars based upon ride wait time? But most other calendars don't make those claims. They say that based on historical trends, this park will be the lightest and that if you follow this strategy you can be more or less done with the big ticket items by lunch. And according to the poll, people seem to love that approach.

We use wait times to compare other calendars because 1) we honestly don't know the criteria others use to measure crowds; and 2) generally, higher crowds mean higher wait times.

If you know anything about #1, let me know and we'll start collecting those data too. I'd be happy to do an apples-to-apples comparison; it improves everyone's work.

I know there are exceptions (such as Food & Wine) to #2, but in general, that should hold. That is, large groups of people making independent decisions about whether to get in line at a theme park will generally decide the same way on different days, absent some external factor.

Len

 

[lentesta]

Also, Porphyro, I'm happy to make our statisticians available for you to talk via Skype. We could probably share data as well, for you to do your own analysis. PM me with good times to talk if you're interested.

Len

 

[tripleup05]

I used TGM for Easter '10 with great success. I bought a subscription last month for my upcoming trip in September, but I was unhappy with the lack of updates. I purchased a Touring Plans subscription two days ago, and the Lines app is awesome! Mike's whys in conjunction with TP's hard data would be a hard combo to beat, except for TGM's lack of updates

With the new FP rules, I plan on using Lines while in the park to check FP return times. It should save the fast pass volunteer from running back and forth checking return times!

By the way, Len, I really love your books, and it is cool that you visit this forum and even offer to share your data! My mom bought me The Unofficial Guide '98 when I was 12 before our first trip. I read that sucker cover to cover! Now, it is sort of a tradition before each trip. Even though the info is largely the same, I buy myself the latest edition and read through it. It gets me in the Disney mood!

 

[EvangelineG]

For our very first WDW trip last year we used a combination of TP, Ridemax and easywdw. I didn't find that any one site on its own gave me exactly what I wanted, and both easywdw & TP were very similar solely in terms of crowd # accuracy for our dates (as far as we could tell in our limited perspective of being at 1 or 2 of the 4 parks per day).

I love the detailed highly customizable plans that I can make using the Ridemax software. TP rolled out their individualized plans towards the end of my planning for our trip (I think in beta form?), but I still preferred Ridemax's interface and the plans it produces at that point.

We loved TP for choosing our dates, and for automatically tracking changes to our dates. Being from Canada the value of the lines app was lost on us, since we didn't want to pay for data use in the parks (very $$$). I am also just a nerdy type who enjoys their statistical/mathematical approach. I got a kick out of watching the way the predictions changed based on data, reading the corresponding blog posts etc. But I am weird like that...

I discovered easywdw later in our planning stages. I found the day by day breakdowns invaluable for understanding why crowd predictions were what they were, and for understanding as a n00b how to make smart choices on the fly when our plans didn't go according to plan and we needed to adjust.

Since I had to choose just one I went with easywdw, primarily because Josh's predictions aren't likely to change dramatically since he's already factoring in the hour changes etc. that WDW usually makes (didn't like opening update emails from TP for our dates with my heart sinking because what was a good day had become a busy one). BUT particularly if TP has continued to develop their individualized plans, I will still want both for our upcoming trip.

 

[notfrostyjosh]

Off the record, I can probably explain a few things about how easyWDW.com operates.

First of all, the overall crowd level is based on Disney's internal projections. As far as I know, it's the only website that could tell you both how many people Disney is expecting in each of its major theme parks and water parks and then how many people actually pass through the turnstiles on a day to day basis. This information is not publicly accessible, but it isn't impossible to access either. Since I want to continue running the website, I rarely mention this and you wouldn't see any official discussion on the site.

So if daily attendance is expected to be:

Magic Kingdom: 45,419
Epcot: 30,814
Hollywood Studios: 23,912
Animal Kingdom: 19,820

That might come out to be an overall crowd level of "five." The numbers are simply added up and compared to the 180 days before it and the 180 days ahead of it and then designated a single digit.

As far as wait times are concerned, the website does not rely on user data whatsoever. Wait times and FASTPASS return times are also available online 24/7. The website "scrapes" this information using a script that I honestly don't understand. But what it does is output a pretty handy PDF file at the end of each day with wait times and FASTPASS return times in 10 and 60 minute intervals every day of the week. Obviously, this provides a very nice look into wait times at every attraction, all day, every day.

Before I had access to that, I simply spoofed the GPS on my phone to tell Mobile Magic that I was in the various theme parks and wrote down the wait times and FASTPASS return times manually. In other words, I basically made the phone tell Mobile Magic that its coordinates were inside Animal Kingdom, even though it was sitting on my desk (in Orlando).

Using this information, I make the determination about which theme parks are recommended and explain crowd flow. I try to point out the best days of the week to see the Electrical Parade and Fantasmic, knowing people want to see those shows. I also point out the least crowded days of the week at each theme park, ranking them from "Most Recommended" to "Least Recommended." Unfortunately, I "can't" recommend Electrical Parade days some weeks because the Parks are so much more crowded those days, but the "daily analysis" allows me to explain how to have a successful day despite the crowds.

I think people find this easier to understand because I synthesize the information for them. I take into account the entertainment, the operating hours, the day of the week, the crowd level and make a determination about where most people are going to want to be that day. Because Magic Kingdom is the most popular, I usually look for the best days of the week there first. In other words, if the Studios and Magic Kingdom both have low attendance compared to other days that week, I give the nod to Magic Kingdom. Then in the daily analysis, I can explain that the Studios is your best choice if you have plans for Magic Kingdom, but also that Magic Kingdom is harder to schedule. Sometimes it's the opposite. For example, during Star Wars Weekends I give the nod to the Studios on weekdays because it's so hard to fit it in with Friday, Saturday, and Sunday being so busy. The same is true at Epcot for the Food and Wine Festival and various other events.

Instead of, "Who has the best crowd calendar?" I think a better question would be, "Which site prepares you better for a Walt Disney World vacation?"

I'm obviously a little biased, but I don't think there's a website on the Internet that is more thorough with basically "up to the moment" updates on major changes. For example, when Rapunzel moved from Fairytale Gardens to what was formerly called Tour Guide Gardens, easyWDW.com had a full report on lines, wait times, meet times etc. complete with pictures and advice on how to go about meeting her with the least possible wait. A few days later, I went out and timed how long it would take to meet Rapunzel, Tinker Bell, and Ariel along with the best way to do so. Again, complete with a 100+ pictures.

When Rapunzel moved inside Town Square Theater, easyWDW.com again had a full report on FASTPASS return times, pictures of the princesses inside the Theater, wait times, meet times, and how best to meet Rapunzel along with the other characters.

That's just one example.

That's a level of detail that you simply won't find on any other site, regardless of whether you appreciate my "tone" or "sarcasm" you're not going to find better Walt Disney World information anywhere. But I'm biased since I write it.

Anyway, I wasn't going to post in this thread, but since it seems to persist, here you go.

I'm not necessarily interested in debating it or interrogating anyone that doesn't agree that "my site is best," but that's a little bit about where I'm coming from.

 

[Cinderumbrella]

Well said

 

[pfalcioni]

On our first WDW trip back in 2007 I signed up for TGM and absolutely loved their product. They allowed us to hit the ground running and tour like pros instead of wander aimlessly in awe of the size of the place.

The following year I added TP to the mix, and used both to come up with a touring plan. I did the same thing until last year when I began to see that neither of these two were really making sense ALL of the time. I'm not saying they were bad, they just weren't all that good.

Fortunately, someone told me about EasyWDW and I used their calendar for our most recent trip in February. Wow, it was like TGM back in the "old days", only better.

I've been reading the EasyWDW blog and forum for almost a year now, and I knew that Josh's calendar really worked well for us, but I had absolutely no idea of all the data that went into development of crowds, recommended days, etc.

Here I thought it was just a really good guesstimate by a guy who's in the parks a few times a week (at least) and who is good at creating plans based on what he sees. Boy, was I mistaken!

Thank you Josh for the detailed explanations, I now have an even greater appreciation of EasyWDW and what it offers, and I'll ask again, why the heck aren't you charging for this? I'd certainly pay!

 

[Cyrano]

I am a fan of touring plans.com but appreciate that the Disney community has a wealth of talented individuals and styles to suit all palates

 

[ghtx]

Off the record, I can probably explain a few things about how easyWDW.com operates.

This was "literally" a great post!

 

[Kimann]

This was "literally" a great post!

 

[rowan]

Instead of, "Who has the best crowd calendar?" I think a better question would be, "Which site prepares you better for a Walt Disney World vacation?"

 

[TLSnell1981]

I am a planner and have over 30 years of vacations in the World. (and 30+ visits.ive lost count) I have NEVER used a crowd calendar to book a trip. I don't go Christmas or Easter week, nor during July or August. Oh, and we avoid FD like the plague.

Really, we've never had a huge problem with the crowds. Disney seems to adjust accordingly.

 

[cdmurphy727]

I think people find this easier to understand because I synthesize the information for them. I take into account the entertainment, the operating hours, the day of the week, the crowd level and make a determination about where most people are going to want to be that day.

This is why we love Josh!!!

 

[AmyPond]

Maxiesmom, as post #2 notes, you'd have to spend your days running back and forth between all four theme parks to make this determination. Are you saying you did this? I'd be super-impressed. I'd also have a bunch more questions.

Len

Haven't finished the whole thread yet but wanted to comment on this. You don't have to run from park to park to know which site is more accurate on your trip.

On my last trip, I remember seeing a Twitter post from you guys saying the crowd levels in Epcot the previous day were high (can't remember exact number...maybe a 7?) I had been in Epcot that day and wait times were very short. So to me, your numbers were just wrong. If you base it on wait times, like you said, that just makes no sense for a day to be a 7 when the wait times were short. I only wish I'd written all down the exact numbers so I could post accurate info. But I didn't. I just remember seeing the tweets and thinking "WRONG."

Okay, back to read the rest of the thread.